The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/22/2024 at 8:54 AM, Inceptionzq said:

CANADAMTC1 Despicable Me 4

T-12 Wednesday: 1317/230098

T-13 Thursday: 273/229845

T-14 Friday: 487/235194

T-15 Saturday: 848/238202

CANADAMTC1 Despicable Me 4

T-11 Wednesday: 1536/230098

T-12 Thursday: 365/229845

T-13 Friday: 556/235194

T-14 Saturday: 958/238202

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/22/2024 at 8:56 AM, Inceptionzq said:

CANADAMTC1 A Quiet Place Day One

T-6 Thursday: 681/85461

T-7 Friday: 841/142506

T-8 Saturday: 411/157746

T-9 Sunday: 197/156530

CANADAMTC1 A Quiet Place Day One

T-5 Thursday: 831/85461

T-6 Friday: 1069/142506

T-7 Saturday: 521/157746

T-8 Sunday: 278/156530

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

Hope it's both, just so people will shut up in the Gladiator 2 thread about bad marketing. It is the only fall tentpole that doesn't have a trailer yet so it's beginning to stick out like a sore thumb.

 

 

I was one of the ones saying people are way overreacting  to not having a trailer for this yet but it's a 300m budgeted sequel to one of the classic's of the 21st century. But now we are in the where this smoke there is fire part of this. On the other hand Paramount does not give a shit about what rando's on a BO office forum think so if they want to wait when they have the biggest eyeballs watching a another R rated movie DP and W would be fine. It's not like the GA really does care when they see a trailer for the first time. 

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

Hope it's both, just so people will shut up in the Gladiator 2 thread about bad marketing. It is the only fall tentpole that doesn't have a trailer yet so it's beginning to stick out like a sore thumb.

 

 

 

It's worth pointing out that Bad Boys Ride or Die didn't get a trailer until about 6 weeks before release, and it didn't hurt it much at all. Sony didn't even bother to attach it to Ghostbusters, which came out the week before. 

 

When the film isn't marketed at the perpetually online crowd, I think there's value in holding off.

 

Gladiator strikes me as a movie that's going to do it's big marketing once the NFL season starts.

 

 

[emoviefan]

15 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

It's worth pointing out that Bad Boys Ride or Die didn't get a trailer until about 6 weeks before release, and it didn't hurt it much at all. Sony didn't even bother to attach it to Ghostbusters, which came out the week before. 

 

When the film isn't marketed at the perpetually online crowd, I think there's value in holding off.

 

Gladiator strikes me as a movie that's going to do it's big marketing once the NFL season starts.

 

 

Yeah Gladiator 2 will play big to the Football audience. I remember the Super Bowl spot back in 2000 for the Original. It might be on youtube. It drove the hype for sure.

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

CANADAMTC1 Despicable Me 4

T-11 Wednesday: 1536/230098

T-12 Thursday: 365/229845

T-13 Friday: 556/235194

T-14 Saturday: 958/238202

 

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

CANADAMTC1 A Quiet Place Day One

T-5 Thursday: 831/85461

T-6 Friday: 1069/142506

T-7 Saturday: 521/157746

T-8 Sunday: 278/156530

 

Btw, I appreciate these posts, as it's giving me a good gauge to compare my MTC4/CANADAMTC1* against (we should land on a common naming convention. I'm flexible).

 

Currently for both these films, my 5 theatre sample are doing about 2.5x the average of the the full pull on the chain. It makes sense. Mine is a busier area, with a couple of high screen locations and two IMAX locations.

 

This might become really useful to see in the future if/when there's deviations.

 

We are technically overlapping, but we're both grabbing different elements of the data (you're grabbing multi day, I'm grabbing showtime and format types). But as you build up comps, it's going to quickly become much more relevant and valuable data. I'll probably still pull my samples for a while, but I might have to think about what I can do in my approach to make the most use of the time.

[lilmac]

41% drops get IO2 to $600M

Edited Sunday at 09:08 PM by lilmac

[M37]

For the record, and take this with some grains of salt (esp in light of what I said about IO2 ~10 days before release), but…

 

Due to a few factors, for Deadpool & Wolverine, I’m still more on a L&T-esque $30M Thur & $150M OW than the $180 or even $200M numbers being floated 

 

 

(might elaborate later this week)

[Eric is Quiet]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

For the record, and take this with some grains of salt (esp in light of what I said about IO2 ~10 days before release), but…

 

Due to a few factors, for Deadpool & Wolverine, I’m still more on a L&T-esque $30M Thur & $150M OW than the $180 or even $200M numbers being floated 

 

 

(might elaborate later this week)

I hope that kitty is okay.

[keysersoze123]

17 minutes ago, M37 said:

For the record, and take this with some grains of salt (esp in light of what I said about IO2 ~10 days before release), but…

 

Due to a few factors, for Deadpool & Wolverine, I’m still more on a L&T-esque $30M Thur & $150M OW than the $180 or even $200M numbers being floated 

 

 

(might elaborate later this week)

I am not that far off either. I am thinking 32/160 for now. Just waiting on it to come inside Thor PS window. 

 

Only exception is if 

Spoiler

Taylor has a non trivial role. That could boost OW to 190m+.

 

[emoviefan]

28 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am not that far off either. I am thinking 32/160 for now. Just waiting on it to come inside Thor PS window. 

 

Only exception is if 

  Reveal hidden contents

Taylor has a non trivial role. That could boost OW to 190m+.

 

At first I thought no it will do better than that and then I thought no maybe not. That would still be pretty good and IO 2 has now taken the pressure of this having to be the summer savior. 150-170 would be great for this and with good WOM throughout August still can do 350-400+ DOM easily.  They probably do need some sort of new catalyst to get more of a pop for ticket sales at this point.

[el sid]

On 6/22/2024 at 7:49 PM, Boxofficerules said:

could Maxxxine break out?

Probably not break out but overperform. 

 

Today MaXXXine had, again counted for Friday, July 5, 301 sold tickets (still with showtimes in 6 theaters). 

Up quite nice 22% since Friday. 

 

My comps stay the same as two days ago (page 869 here). 

[keysersoze123]

On 6/20/2024 at 2:40 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews - 182486/1277183 3379640.38 7842 shows +5296

Friday - 82853/1480201 1583429.52 8244 shows +2760

 

+4 days later. Need to see how Disney amps up the marketing for this. Probably may not happen until we are into final 2 weeks of presales. Do we know when the premier for this movie is? 

 

 

 

 

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews - 185739/1277875 3435488.37 7846 shows +3253

Friday - 85104/1485994 1622871.43 8272 shows +2251

 

+3 days of the sale. 

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Horizon Chapter 1 MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 3407/104211 41459.35 971 shows +598 

Friday - 4147/157981 50308.53 1434 shows +864

 

Almost 2 days worth(at least day hours) worth of data. I ran it now to gauge the pace. Nothing to say about this except its not gong to be about previews . May be walkups on thursday would take it above 1m previews. Probably low double digit OW as older audience would come come over the weekend. if it over performs in heartland it could even hit low teens. But that is the peak I see.  

Horizon Chapter 1 MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 3835/104643 46310.03 974 shows +428 

Friday - 4897/158125 59254.15 1439 shows +750

 

At least Friday is ramping up. 

[Flip]

On 6/19/2024 at 10:34 PM, Flip said:

A Quiet Place (T-8)

 

12 showtimes/217 tix sold (+14)

.99x Inside Out 2 (T-8) [12.88m*]
1.72x Bad Boys 4 (T-8) [9.59m]
4.72x Watchers (T-8) [4.72m]

* take this with a grain of salt, due to both genre differences and AQP over indexing since I’m tracking NYC where the movie takes place.

 

for now Watchers comp is probably the best to follow

A Quiet Place (T-4)

 

12 showtimes/281 tix sold (+64)

.817x Inside Out 2 (T-4) [10.62m*]
1.57x Bad Boys 4 (T-4) [8.75m]
5.62x Watchers (T-4) [5.62m]

* take this with a grain of salt, due to both genre differences and AQP over indexing since I’m tracking NYC where the movie takes place.

 

for now Watchers comp is probably the best to follow.

 

Also, one of the 3 theaters I track is temporarily closed for unforeseen maintenance, but presales are still open for Tuesday on. However, if it remains closed I won’t be able to get a T-1 or T-0 number, so I will probably just measure the growth compared to the other two theaters with the growth of other movies I have.

Also also, there is the possibility that people seeing that the theater is closed is causing them to shy away from buying tickets, even if it’s for a while later.

[Flip]

On 6/18/2024 at 11:26 PM, Flip said:

Despicable Me 4 (T-15)

 

22 showtimes/94 tix sold (+10) 

.74x Inside Out 2 Thursday (T-15) [9.62m]

 

Twisters (T-30) 

 

14 showtimes/46 tix sold (+2)

 

still hasn’t reached AQP’s first day of sales yet

Despicable Me 4 (T-10)

 

22 showtimes/140 tix sold (+46) 

.73x Inside Out 2 Thursday (T-10) [9.49m]

 

Twisters (T-25)

 

14 showtimes/48 tix sold (+2)

 

still hasn’t reached AQP’s first day of sales yet. Sold 2 tickets in the last 5 days.

[JimmyB]

33 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Horizon Chapter 1 MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 3835/104643 46310.03 974 shows +428 

Friday - 4897/158125 59254.15 1439 shows +750

 

At least Friday is ramping up. 

I know Horizon isnt supposed to be pre-sale heavy but I was curious what other movies sold that opened around 10m....Ministry had early Sunday shows and its T-2. 

 

Monkey Man MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 12940/145589 235473.00 1023 shows +1282 

Friday -  9384/251380 168013.26 1731 shows +1220

 

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 7027/120427 121282.69 923 shows  +1719

Friday - 8604/296883 143249.24 2194 shows +2399

 

 

 

 

 

[Flip]

Not sure if I’ll track this more than sporadically, but Longlegs has 42 tickets sold in just 2 showtimes on pretty small screens at T-18. That’s over half of Inside Out 2’s number with 6 more shows, and 30% of AQP D1, which had 10 more shows

[keysersoze123]

On 6/22/2024 at 7:28 PM, keysersoze123 said:

 

Despicable Me 4 MTC1

Wednesday(T-11) - 18815/1068220 313345.80 5642 shows +6799

Friday(7/5) - 7398/1093314 119132.42 5750 shows +1907

 

Wednesday pace seem to be going up. Friday is moribund. 

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Wednesday(T-10) - 20359/1068512 338861.66 5644 shows +1544

 

Just Wednesday. I dont think rest of the week matters. It will follow atypical drop/increase for that week anyway. Big question is how it accelerates next week. I am not sure its going to get even a "review boost" as its already out in few OS markets. Ideally that should build the hype. I cannot see any so far. 

FYI Mario was at 74,554 with 4107 sales for T-10. They are not perfect comps(Mario has big fan base)but in the end they will be comparable.  

Edited Monday at 02:36 AM by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, JimmyB said:

I know Horizon isnt supposed to be pre-sale heavy but I was curious what other movies sold that opened around 10m....Ministry had early Sunday shows and its T-2. 

 

Monkey Man MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 12940/145589 235473.00 1023 shows +1282 

Friday -  9384/251380 168013.26 1731 shows +1220

 

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 7027/120427 121282.69 923 shows  +1719

Friday - 8604/296883 143249.24 2194 shows +2399

 

 

 

 

 

Ministry was showing better pace and that bombed big time. Monkey Man was niche but had strong reviews out of Cinema Con. Neither are perfect comps. But its going to under index big time considering he genre. 

Edited Monday at 02:37 AM by keysersoze123