The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/21/2024 at 11:35 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DEADPOOL x WOLVERINE

 

Thursday 

 

T-65

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1028	12854	202319	6.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1508

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

30

 

COMPS

2nd day

*Don't take these seriously 

(4.770x) of Dune 2 $44.36M

 

Pretty ridiculously strong day 2. It sold more tickets on T-65 than Dune 2 did in its final day of presales. No further updates til T-30

FLORIDA 

 

DEADPOOL x WOLVERINE

 

Thursday 

 

T-29

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1049	18940	206943	9.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

6086

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-29

*Don't take this seriously* This is mostly for future comp

 

I don't have any comps but it sold 6k tickets over the past 30ish days which is bonkers.

 

(It has surpassed Inside out 2 final T-0, which I guess doesn't mean much. No other film comes close to those two)

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Problem is Disney theater in Orlando. That tends to over index for these movies. So its hard for these ratios to work. That is why I am not a big fan of comparing previews so different. it finishing at similar ratio would be hard. Smaller movies grow more close to release. 

 

@TheFlatLannister would you be able to comp Deadpool with Barbenheimer combo. Preview levels would be similar and now the ratio would show very high preview for Deadpool but growth of Barbenheimer was off the charts and it would correct. 

 

  

 

@TheFlatLannister I think @Porthos asked about fan shows for Deadpool at MTC1. 

Yeah Disney Springs makes the ratios just weird. The IO2 comp against Elemental was way low for the same reason.

[TheFlatLannister]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Problem is Disney theater in Orlando. That tends to over index for these movies. So its hard for these ratios to work. That is why I am not a big fan of comparing previews so different. it finishing at similar ratio would be hard. Smaller movies grow more close to release. 

 

@TheFlatLannister would you be able to comp Deadpool with Barbenheimer combo. Preview levels would be similar and now the ratio would show very high preview for Deadpool but growth of Barbenheimer was off the charts and it would correct. 

T-29

Barbenheimer: 1804 seats sold

 

Comp: 3.944x ($124M 😳)

[TheFlatLannister]

4 minutes ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Yeah Disney Springs makes the ratios just weird. The IO2 comp against Elemental was way low for the same reason.

That was the biggest motivation for me to move from just Orlando to all of Florida. The hope was Jax, Tallahassee, Miami, Tampa etc would offset the crazy Disney loc 

[Ryan C]

I know this thread is about pre-sales and tracking, but I would just like to bring up a couple of important statistics up that could maybe help soften the blow about the R-rating potentially limiting ticket sales for Deadpool and Wolverine. 

 

According to Deadline when Spider-Man: No Way Home opened, 72% of the audience was between ages 18-44. Even if that movie was a true four-quadrant blockbuster and got a lot of families and teenagers to go see it, having more than 70% of the audience be old enough to buy tickets to see D&W is a very good thing and that's not even including people who are possibly older than 44 that could show up to see it. 

 

Also, 46% of the people who bought tickets for Spider-Man: No Way Home bought them the day of or the day prior from when they watched it. Just by looking at that, it's an encouraging sign for Deadpool and Wolverine that a good chunk of business will come from walk-ups (it'll only be better if the movie actually gets strong word-of-mouth) and it only makes more sense when pre-sales started this early compared to No Way Home. 

 

Of course, the R-rating will be limiting and I could totally be wrong about this, but looking at these stats for NWH does make the prospects for Deadpool and Wolverine hitting $200M on opening weekend a lot stronger. It should at least have no problem getting the 18-44 year olds which already largely make up a huge chunk of a Marvel movie's business. 

Edited Thursday at 01:43 AM by Ryan C

[Flip]

 

21 hours ago, Flip said:

A Quiet Place (T-2)

 

12 showtimes/424 tix sold (+93)

.819x Inside Out 2 (T-2) [10.64m]
1.27x Bad Boys 4 (T-2) [7.08m]
4.82x Watchers (T-2) [4.82m]

Goal for tomorrow should be to sell >120 tickets
 

A Quiet Place (T-1)

 

16 showtimes/509 tix sold (+85)

1x Bad Boys 4 (T-1) [5.58m]
4.94x Watchers (T-1) [4.94m]

 

I did take this a little bit early, but it’s still not a good sign that daily sales dipped. 
 

Goal for T-0 is to sell 170 tickets

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@TheFlatLannister I think @Porthos asked about fan shows for Deadpool at MTC1. 

 

Specifically, I was asking about the Opening Day Fan Event (i.e. for $$$) that is being hosted exclusively for MTC1 on Thur Jul 25th:

 

https://www.fandango.com/deadpool-and-wolverine-opening-day-fan-event-2024-236329/movie-overview?date=2024-07-25

 

Disney will use an Opening Night/Day Fan Event for branding purposes for when they want to have a giveaway for extra goodies or a showing an hour or so earlier or something else usually along side a hike in ATP.

 

This is not a "free" event or fan showing a couple of days earlier to drive awareness/buzz or anything like that.  Disney is 100% going to fold those into the reported totals

 

If you never track these, fair enough.  But wanted to make sure you knew what I was referring to.

 

@TheFlatLannister

 

Edited Thursday at 01:56 AM by Porthos

[DAJK]

Fun fact, anyone who was at least 9 years old when the first Deadpool came out is now old enough to see this in theaters by themselves.

 

Have fun with that one.

[abracadabra1998]

21 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

A Quiet Place: Day One (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	159	282	708	25530	2.77

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		473	177	66.81
MTC1:		426	151	60.17
Other chains:		282	131	39.83

 

Comps:

0.98x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (THU): $4.88 Million

1.08x Aquaman and the Last Kingdom: $4.88 Million (17 theaters)

2.3x Exorcist Believer: $6.55 Million (17 theaters)

1.75x Blue Beetle: $5.79 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $5.53 Million

 

Added Blue Beetle, not a great comp but trying to find blockbusters that skew young. Decent pace over these last two days!

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

A Quiet Place: Day One (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	165	254	962	25859	3.72

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		624	151	64.86
MTC1:		531	105	55.2
Other chains:		431	149	44.8

 

Comps:

1x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (THU): $5.02 Million

1.2x Aquaman and the Last Kingdom: $5.42 Million (17 theaters)

1.86x Blue Beetle: $6.14 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $5.53 Million

 

Really stellar pace, grew against every comp. Took out the Exorcist because that was starting to not make sense (R-rated horror versus PG-13 blockbuster). I will give a T-1 hour update tomorrow but this growth rate gives me a good feeling about walk-ups!

[abracadabra1998]

21 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Horizon: Chapter 1 (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	67	46	154	6879	2.24

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		30	11	19.48
MTC1:		63	24	40.91
Other chains:		91	22	59.09

 

Comps:

0.96x The Bikeriders: $1.4 Million

0.99x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $845k

2.57x Arthur the King: $2.12 Million

Ordinary Angels: Missed

0.35x Boys on the Boat: $610k

 

Average: $1.24 Million

 

Comps are all over the place but that's because I have nothing really like this. Bikeriders probably the best comp of the bunch?

 

Blue Lock the Movie: Episode Nagi (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 10 theaters	27	19	41	2179	1.88

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		36	19	87.8
Other chains:		5	0	12.2

 

Comps:

0.08x Haikyu: $65k

0.12x Spy x Family Code White: $80k

 

Non-entity

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Horizon: Chapter 1 (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	74	49	203	7423	2.73

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		44	14	21.67
MTC1:		71	8	34.98
Other chains:		132	41	65.02

 

Comps:

0.88x The Bikeriders: $1.27 Million

0.96x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $820k

2.01x Arthur the King: $1.66 Million

2.89x Ordinary Angels: $825k

0.29x Boys on the Boat: $500k

 

Average: $1.02 Million

 

Inclined to ignore Arthur the King (way underperformed here with some Spring Break funkiness) and Boys on the Boat (overindexed here, also previews were on a Sunday). I'll give a T-1 Hour update tomorrow but probs looking at around $1 Million if I had to guess

 

Blue Lock the Movie: Episode Nagi (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 10 theaters	30	4	45	2419	1.86

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		36	0	80
Other chains:		9	4	20

 

Comps:

0.08x Haikyu: $65k

0.12x Spy x Family Code White: $80k

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, Manny G said:

So is $200M opening a lock for Deadpool?

Not a lock but I will say $225M is more likelier than $150M.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Not a lock but I will say $225M is more likelier than $150M.

Wanna a bet. I see zero % chance of 225m. Friday sales are not that good. 

[excel1]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

I wouldn't go that far as we do have The Matrix Reloaded as a counter-example.  That had *MEGA HYPE* (probably more hype than DP3, but I admit to being biased) but even as a Matrix fanboy I wouldn't claim it came close to Endgame level hype.

 

The real problem with bringing in MRel (as well as PotChrist) is that even with PLF/3D, 4day (w/Wed Midnights) and 5 day makes truly comping releases... difficult.  

 

Matrix Reloaded 3 day (using perhaps outdated ATP from Numbers) is 163m

Matrix Reloaded 4 day + midnights (ditto) is 238.5m

 

Split the difference between the two?  Get 200.8m

 

So to get a 200m OW all you need is The Matrix Reloaded level HYPE.  Easy peasy! 

 

But then there's the very real debate that focusing solely on ATP ignores the very real changes of audience buying patterns.

 

Anyway, the point of my post wasn't to say "it's impossible", as I def don't think it is.  I think it is saying "Folks, just think about the difficulty of the task here" since so many folks won't be viewing this film that normally might.

 

The Matrix Reloaded is an example of true inflation really downplaying its hype.

 

The 12 month old opening weekend record was $114m. The previous, 18 month old opening weekend record was $90m. Matrix Reloaded did $134m Thursday-Sunday. It would have come VERY closet to setting the new opening weekend record if it was a true Friday opening opening. 

 

It's forgotten now, but that is one of the most hyped films in history. It's much more like a $300m opening 3-day than $200m. Take the total combined hype of Barbenheimer  and one is still a good 20% short of Matrix Reloaded. The buzz for that was deafening and had an utter strangehold on the 16-30 crowd. Only comparable films since are TDK and TDKR. No Disney from any brand film had such intense pull with one specific demo. 

Edited Thursday at 02:19 AM by excel1

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, excel1 said:

 

The Matrix Reloaded is an example of true inflation really downplaying its hype.

 

The 12 month old opening weekend record was $114m. The previous, 18 month old opening weekend record was $90m. Matrix Reloaded did $134m Thursday-Sunday. It would have come VERY closet to setting the new opening weekend record if it was a true Friday opening opening. 

 

It's forgotten now, but that is one of the most hyped films in history. It's much more like a $300m opening 3-day than $200m. Matrix Reloaded was MUCH more hyped than, say, Barbie. 

Irony was Brandon(@mojo) refused to say Reloaded broke OD record as it included 5m from shows that started at 10PM previous day. Now we have previews starting at 2PM included in OD BO 🙂

[excel1]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Irony was Brandon(@mojo) refused to say Reloaded broke OD record as it included 5m from shows that started at 10PM previous day. Now we have previews starting at 2PM included in OD BO 🙂

 

I remember that. So dumb. The only other noteworthy example at the time was Batman 1989, which had its $2.5m "sneak previews" withheld by some reporters as well. Mojo always held MAN OF STEELS OPENING at $114M instead of $128m due ro the silly sneak thing too. Inconsistent to say the least. 

[Migs20242]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Not a lock but I will say $225M is more likelier than $150M.

I think Deadpool and Wolverine is opening around $180-190 million domestic OW.

[excel1]

Btw, ENDGAME is the most hyped film in history. Matrix 2 and is along TDK/TDKR/Spider-man 2002/Spider-man 3/TFA/Avengers/Infinity War/ID4 in that second uber elite tier, though. 

[Unfitclock]

Now the question is if horizon does around 1 million in previews how backloaded is it going to be?

[Cheddar Please]

4 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Btw, ENDGAME is the most hyped film in history. Matrix 2 and is along TDK/TDKR/Spider-man 2002/Spider-man 3/TFA/Avengers/Infinity War/ID4 in that second uber elite tier, though. 

NWH?

[excel1]

1 minute ago, Cheddar Please said:

NWH?

 

Yeah they would be belong in that tier, along with SITH. The above list is really tier 3 TBH, tier 2 would be Batman 1989, ESB, ROTJ, and Episode 1.