The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

Would love to see these optimistic numbers that Voldie, BO Pro and Shawn are throwing out for Twisters. If it is a more of a  crowdpleaser than QP Day one seems like it is turning out to be and the reviews are good 55+ would seem like a lock but 70 to 80+ ? Will see.

[Inceptionzq]

Unfortunately the script didn't work for A Quiet Place Denver, and for some reason MTC4 was run for Sunday numbers instead of Thursday even though the date was right. So no final Thursday numbers for either one

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/26/2024 at 8:49 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine

T-29 Thursday: 26300/207557

T-30 Friday: 16569/271893

T-31 Saturday: 12091/284179

T-32 Sunday: 3930/282093

 

Numbers from a few hours ago

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine

T-28 Thursday: 26525/207557

T-29 Friday: 16797/271893

T-30 Saturday: 12297/284179

T-31 Sunday: 4016/282093

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/26/2024 at 8:50 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Despicable Me 4

T-7 Wednesday: 3059/230098

T-8 Thursday: 980/229845

T-9 Friday: 962/235194

T-10 Saturday: 1494/238202

MTC4 Despicable Me 4

T-6 Wednesday: 3858/230098

T-7 Thursday: 1333/229845

T-8 Friday: 1229/235194

T-9 Saturday: 1750/238202

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/26/2024 at 8:51 PM, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 A Quiet Place Day One

T-1 Thursday: 2453/84274

T-2 Friday: 4215/191771

T-3 Saturday: 1877/197364

T-4 Sunday: 823/192774

MTC4 A Quiet Place Day One

T-1 Friday: 7029/191771

T-2 Saturday: 2878/197364

T-3 Sunday: 1256/192774

[Relevation]

30 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Would love to see these optimistic numbers that Voldie, BO Pro and Shawn are throwing out for Twisters. If it is a more of a  crowdpleaser than QP Day one seems like it is turning out to be and the reviews are good 55+ would seem like a lock but 70 to 80+ ? Will see.

What I don’t understand is why the $30-40M OW range for Twisters has completely left the realm of consideration for trackers when that is what a $4-5M preview total (i:e what most comps are pointing to rn) would end up yielding. Like, $50-60M should be the optimistic scenario here where it has super strong walkups and great reviews, let alone the baseline. On the flipside if it has a bad finish, then you’re very possibly looking at Furiosa numbers here. $70-80M would literally require this to play like a kids movie and have IO2 tier walkups.

[Insomnia]

4 minutes ago, Relevation said:

What I don’t understand is why the $30-40M OW range for Twisters has completely left the realm of consideration for trackers when that is what a $4-5M preview total (i:e what most comps are pointing to rn) would end up yielding. Like, $50-60M should be the optimistic scenario here where it has super strong walkups and great reviews, let alone the baseline. On the flipside if it has a bad finish, then you’re very possibly looking at Furiosa numbers here. $70-80M would literally require this to play like a kids movie and have IO2 tier walkups.

Well obviously they're expecting sales to pick up for Thursday.

[Grand Cine]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

MTC1 Friday

A Quiet Place: Day One - 89125/1182177 1594383.07 6428 shows +30047

Horizon Chapter 1 - 16691/195110 196101.72 1867 shows +4788

 

Horizon should cross 20m with previews. Probably needs 22m to keep 60m in play. I wont rule it out. 

 

Horizon is just outright bombing over here. Let us see how heartland does it take it to low double digits. 

AQP is ahead Apes which was at 74K , i'm more optimist about 23-24M Friday (with previews) for me .

[Joyous Legion]

Realistically there are no good comps for twisters from a PS length+genre combo. I wouldn’t worry much about comps until we get a week or two closer (this is not to say they’ll necessarily make some huge improvement, just that that’s a defensible prior)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28031	33625	5594	16.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

16

 

T-29 Comp

	%		Sold T-29	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	82.89		6749	6749		0/329	34167/40916	16.49%		21117	26.49%		29.84m
BP2	111.52		161	5016		1/294	32006/37022	13.55%		16800	33.30%		31.23m
AM3	182.93		257	3058		0/231	29307/32365	9.45%		10475	53.40%		32.01m
GOTG3	237.94		194	2351		0/205	27217/29568	7.95%		10750	52.04%		41.64m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      1200/12925  [9.28% sold]
Matinee:     307/4469  [6.87% | 5.49% of all tickets sold]
3D:              597/6801  [8.78% | 10.67% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2924/11535  [25.35% | 52.27% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        14 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    14 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

====

 

Okay, I'll go ahead and stipulate that Sacramento definitely under-performed today.

 

More seriously, decided to add all relevant MCU comps, even with GOTG3 being unrepresentative at the moment.

 

As for other films, won't do it for quite a while, but probably gonna add The Batman, Dune 2, and Avatar 2 to the comp blocks at some point (likely before I add John Wick 4 [if I ever add JW4]). Basically looking for films that had a higher PSM* out of Sacramento in an attempt to adjust for fewer kids tickets than are normally sold for MCU films locally (the rationale for The Batman is that DCU films historically under-performed here relative to MCU flicks, so perhaps it can be a case of 'errors canceling'). Not exactly sure when, but it might be different days for different movies. 

* reasonably sure I'm using the correct terminology here by saying 'higher PSM'

 

I know that some might raise an eyebrow on Batsy due to it having all those PLF EA showtimes, but here is what a The Batman comp would have predicted for bigger MCU flicks:

 

MoM:      38.87m [36m]

L&T:        31.16m  [29m]

BP2:        30.87m [28m]

GOTG3:  19.75m  [17.5m]

 

I dunno.  Maybe in the ballpark? FWIW, Batsy didn't have 3D plus ATP hikes since then, so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-28 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	27981	33622	5641	16.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

47

 

T-28 Comp

	%		Sold T-28	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	76.20		654	7403		0/329	33513/40916	18.09%		21117	26.71%		27.43m
BP2	106.84		139	5280		1/294	31742/37022	14.26%		16800	33.58%		29.91m
AM3	171.72		227	3285		0/231	29080/32365	10.15%		10475	53.85%		30.05m
GOTG3	229.03		112	2463		0/205	27105/29568	8.33%		10750	52.47%		40.08m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1214/12925  [9.39% sold]
Matinee:    312/4469  [6.98% | 5.53% of all tickets sold]
3D:             601/6801  [8.84% | 10.65% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2937/11532  [25.47% | 52.07% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        44 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    47 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

[vafrow]

On 6/27/2024 at 6:36 AM, vafrow said:

 

Despicable Me 4, T-7 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 224

New Sales: 37

Growth: 20%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 63

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.6

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 39/13

Early Afternoon: 40/13

Late Afternoon: 30/13

Early Evening: 111/12

Late Evening: 4/13

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 16/18

Regular 3D: 11/15

Dolby: 155/17

Dolby 3D: 7/3

IMAX: 35/10

 

Comps

2.545x Inside Out 2 for $33.1M

1.982x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $9.5M

3.446x GB:FE for $12.8M

4.226x Wonka for $14.8M

28.000x IF for $49.0M

Average: $21.3M

 

Still staying steady.

 

Despicable Me 4, T-6 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 262

New Sales: 38

Growth: 17%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 63

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.2

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 39/13

Early Afternoon: 65/13

Late Afternoon: 36/13

Early Evening: 119/12

Late Evening: 4/13

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 19/18

Regular 3D: 13/15

Dolby: 182/17

Dolby 3D: 7/3

IMAX: 41/10

 

Comps

2.519x Inside Out 2 for $32.8M

1.941x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $9.3M

3.853x GB:FE for $14.3M

4.943x Wonka for $17.3M

32.750x IF for $57.3M

Average: $26.2M

 

Doing well. What's interesting though is how much it's falling off the national pace. My sample was originally 8.2% of national volumes at T-11. It's now at 6.8%.

 

But it's still overperforming the average location by about double. So it's likely that there's just more up front activity in my location.

[AniNate]

On 6/19/2024 at 9:30 PM, AniNate said:

 

NORTH CANTON

 

WED EA - 16
THUR - 26
FRI - 23

 

VALLEY VIEW (CLEVELAND)

 

WED EA - 17
THUR - 17
FRI - 13

 

Welp, now at the month point, so I would expect presales to start ramping up fairly soon if this is the kind of mid-America appeal film I'm thinking/hoping it will be.

 

TWISTERS

 

NORTH CANTON
 

Wednesday EA - 30
Thursday - 38
Friday - 51
Saturday - 76
Sunday - 17

 

 

VALLEY VIEW (CLEVELAND)
 

Wednesday EA - 22
Thursday - 22
Friday - 21
Saturday - 28
Sunday - 8

 

Urban/suburban divide on this movie getting a lot more pronounced. Starting to see some movement on the weekend planner side

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Despicable Me 4 T-6: 69.14% Awareness, 59.77% Interest

Twisters T-22: 51% Awareness, 55.33% Interest

Alien: Romulus T-50: 28.94% Awareness, 45.22% Interest

Speak No Evil T-78: 20.28% Awareness, 43.95% Interest

Never Let Go T-92: 16.58% Awareness, 40.38% Interest

Flight Risk T-113: 15.83% Awareness, 45.17% Interest

 

A Quiet Place: Day One T-1: 45.09% Awareness, 55.64% Interest

Final Awareness: 79% chance of 10M, 48% chance of 20M, 25% chance of 30M, 16% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 82% chance of 10M, 45% chance of 20M, 18% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 94% chance of 10M, 80% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 47% chance of 40M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 69% chance of 20M, 38% chance of 30M, 15% chance of 40M

 

Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 T-1: 27.68% Awareness, 39.8% Interest

Final Awareness: 18% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 20% chance of 10M

Medium Interest: 33% chance of 10M

 

MaXXXine T-8: 20.09% Awareness, 36.35% Interest

Final Awareness: 18% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 20% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 25% chance of 10M

 

The Crow T-57: 33.83% Awareness, 45.17% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 93% chance of 10M, 74% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 50% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 61% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 32% chance of 10M, 9% chance of 20M

[Inceptionzq]

8 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 A Quiet Place Day One

T-1 Friday: 7029/191771

MTC4 A Quiet Place Day One

T-0 Friday: 9468/191771

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

A Quiet Place: Day One T-0

Sales	Seats	Shows
1535	25706	160

TC=28, pulled 11 AM EST

Comps

0.34x Inside Out 2 T-0 = $4.4m

3.85x Bikeriders T-0 = $5.0m

0.91x Bad Boys 4 T-0 = $5.1m

1.54x Furiosa T-0 = $5.4m

 

AVG = $4.98m

 

I'd guess closer to $5m than $6m from here but could just be underperforming in this market 

 

Indiana Lite

A Quiet Place: Day One Fri T-0

Sales	Seats	Shows
1837	25666	137

TC=10, pulled 10 AM EST

Comps

0.91x Bad Boys 4 Fri T-0 = $14.1m

1.04x Kingdom Apes Fri T-0 = $16.2m

 

AVG = $15.15m

[justnumbers]

So, are we going with the 1.45M for The Bikeriders previews?

 

[keysersoze123]

On 6/26/2024 at 9:26 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Wednesday(T-8) - 26100/1148236 432707.30 6171 shows +3291

 

Its definitely amping up at the right time. It should be at 75-80% range of Inside Out Friday. of course IO2 had crazy finish and so one has to monitor how DM4 does with a wednesday release that should function better than a normal friday I think. Definitely looking at a good OD at this point.  

 

Mario was over 82K at this point and so its around 1/3 of that movie. Let us see where  it is early next week. 

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Wednesday(T-7) - 30125/1160261 496944.75 6239 shows +4025

(T-6) - 35260/1160010 579194.08 6239 shows +5135

 

I did not post update for T-7. its definitely on the move at this point. Its hard to extrapolate Wednesday release with Friday numbers as final ramp up is different. 1 Wednesday comp is Mario. That was at 101728 and daily pace of 9583. That also had a strong finish. I am thinking mid to high teens OD. I wonder what @charlie Jatinder or @M37 thinks it can do. 

[filmlover]

I don't know if this was ever mentioned by Fly Me to the Moon is having Early Access shows next Friday (7/5). It's actually selling pretty well so far near me.

[Grand Cine]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Wednesday(T-7) - 30125/1160261 496944.75 6239 shows +4025

(T-6) - 35260/1160010 579194.08 6239 shows +5135

 

I did not post update for T-7. its definitely on the move at this point. Its hard to extrapolate Wednesday release with Friday numbers as final ramp up is different. 1 Wednesday comp is Mario. That was at 101728 and daily pace of 9583. That also had a strong finish. I am thinking mid to high teens OD. I wonder what @charlie Jatinder or @M37 thinks it can do. 

If it opens behind 20M for OD , under 100M for 5 days is locked ( at best 90M 5 Days for me) . Inside Out 2 hurts him.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

If it opens behind 20M for OD , under 100M for 5 days is locked ( at best 90M 5 Days for me) . Inside Out 2 hurts him.

I am comping with Mario and how crazy final few days were for it. 

 

Final 6 days including walkups for Mario. Mario did 35m OD. Its currently at 1/3 the today with pace at slightly above half. I was just extrapolating if it maintains that through out. But final day walkups could be like 80% of mario. Then it can get around 23-25m OD

 

12,420

15,148

24,752

41,912

85,290

2330,00