The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

It'd be funny if Oppenheimer and Barbie wound up with super long Avatar runs just because the strike delays literally everything else for the rest of the year.

Only a few movies here and there are on the move like Drive-Away Dolls (about to be delayed any minute according to Deadline) and potentially Dune 2. As much of a bummer waiting longer for the latter would be for most it wouldn't be the end of the world considering November is pretty packed even without it. I'm guessing one of Hunger Games or Trolls would claim 11/3 in the event Dune moves (since nothing else is currently set to open there), probably Trolls to give it more breathing room away from Wish and Universal's other holiday animated movie.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-2	Jax	5	34	44	249	3,951	6.30%
		Phx	6	28	33	188	4,613	4.08%
		Ral	8	30	46	183	3,672	4.98%
	Total		19	92	123	620	12,236	5.07%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-1	Jax	2	2	14	159	395	40.25%
		Phx	1	1	20	138	208	66.35%
	Total		4	4	34	297	603	49.25%
Talk to Me	T-2	Jax	5	15	8	44	1,311	3.36%
		Phx	6	17	9	54	1,599	3.38%
		Ral	6	16	19	40	1,567	2.55%
	Total		17	48	36	138	4,477	3.08%

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-2 comps

 - Shazam 2 - 1.283x (4.36m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .126x (2.8m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4.517x (6.55m)

 - Nope - .889x (5.69m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .632x (3.95m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .427x (2.56m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 2.8x (7.55m)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - .814x (3.66m)

 

Size adjusted average - 4.59m

 

Haunted Mansion pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Haunted Mansion Total	57.83%	30.12%	20.44%	20.66%
Shazam 2	30.47%	11.13%	8.01%	11.37%
Barbie Total	52.32%	31.34%	31.00%	18.68%
Knock at the Cabin	46.04%	25.18%		20.12%
Nope	64.33%	21.18%	19.60%	26.32%
Sonic 2 (Total)	62.05%	24.55%	22.04%	22.02%
Fantastic Beasts 3			27.47%	14.33%
Jungle Cruise	83.24%	26.26%	31.82%	37.24%
Ghostbusters Total			20.07%	20.82%

 

This is where Jungle Cruise really took off.   Similar day to Ghostbusters/Sonic/Barbie.  Based on those three, maybe heading for around 3.6m?  Still time for it to make up ground on the others.  

 

Talk to Me T-2 comps

 - Black Phone - .431x (1.12m)

 - M3GAN - .63x (1.73m)

 - Smile - missed

 - Renfield - .868x (738k)

 - X - 1.551x (682k)

 - Men - 1.468x (621k)

 - Antlers - 2.3x (851k)

 

Size adjusted average - 908k

 

Switched to some non-sequel R horror movies that hopefully are more predictive.  Unfortunately I didn't consistently track most of these so the pace chart is mostly blank.  Currently thinking it gets around 1m with the EA (only one show in my tracked theaters with 5 tickets sold).

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunted Mansion	T-1	Jax	5	41	48	297	4,336	6.85%
		Phx	6	35	47	235	5,196	4.52%
		Ral	8	32	33	216	3,804	5.68%
	Total		19	108	128	748	13,336	5.61%
Haunted Mansion (EA)	T-0	Jax	2	2	47	206	395	52.15%
		Phx	1	1	19	157	208	75.48%
	Total		4	4	66	363	603	60.20%
Talk to Me	T-1	Jax	5	18	20	64	1,422	4.50%
		Phx	6	18	49	103	1,768	5.83%
		Ral	7	19	39	79	1,741	4.54%
	Total		18	55	108	246	4,931	4.99%

 

Haunted Mansion (Total) T-1 comps

 - Shazam 2 - 1.335x (4.54m)

 - Barbie (Total) - .13x (2.91m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4.444x (6.44m)

 - Nope - .813x (5.21m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .59x (3.69m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .448x (2.69m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 2.405x (6.49m)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - .769x (3.46m)

 

Size adjusted average - 4.5m

 

Haunted Mansion pace chart:

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Haunted Mansion Total	71.45%	32.41%	23.74%	21.16%
Shazam 2	44.44%	13.89%	7.86%	16.36%
Barbie Total	59.02%	29.40%	34.15%	16.65%
Knock at the Cabin	72.41%	26.21%	13.08%	23.15%
Nope	91.58%	26.23%	19.39%	32.36%
Sonic 2 (Total)	84.51%	28.82%	22.73%	29.61%
Fantastic Beasts 3			29.29%	15.52%
Jungle Cruise	126.47%	24.02%	31.61%	40.85%
Ghostbusters Total	79.95%	26.40%	19.29%	28.33%

 

The closest pace comp is... Knock at the Cabin?  Interesting.   Still think we'll see a little under 4m, maybe 3.8m

 

Talk to Me T-1 comps

 - Black Phone - .573x (1.49m)

 - M3GAN - .737x (2.03m)

 - Smile - 1.414x (2.4m)

 - Renfield - missed

 - X - 1.81x (796k)

 - Men - 1.907x (807k)

 - Antlers - 3.37x (1.25m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.49m

 

The +78% was better than any of these comps.  3-day pace of +182.7% is very close to Men at +180.4%.  Another good day would make me feel good about getting to 1.5m.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Turtles	T-7	Jax	5	40	7	78	5,828	1.34%
		Phx	6	63	1	113	9,350	1.21%
		Ral	8	46	6	117	6,080	1.92%
	Total		19	149	14	308	21,258	1.45%
Turtles (EA)	T-4	Jax	4	6	37	101	384	26.30%
		Phx	1	1	1	28	169	16.57%
		Ral	3	3	11	113	433	26.10%
	Total		8	10	49	242	986	24.54%
	T-6	Jax	5	7	26	151	961	15.71%
		Phx	1	1	9	99	208	47.60%
	Total		7	9	35	250	1,169	21.39%

 

Turtles (Total) T-8 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .212x (4.72m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.1x (6.89m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.83x (8.22m w/ today's average)

 - Indiana Jones - .884x (6.36m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .673x (4.04m)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - 1.35x (6.09m)

 - Dune - .973x (4.96m)

 

Size adjusted average - 5.97m

 

Turtles pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Turtles Total	33.78%	14.21%	20.66%	13.96%
Barbie Total	51.87%	24.47%	18.78%	14.89%
Sonic 2 (Total)	29.41%	16.22%	16.38%	7.40%
Haunted Mansion Total	31.14%	15.57%	15.96%	7.88%
Indiana Jones	10.37%	12.68%	11.73%	4.38%
Fantastic Beasts 3	41.43%	29.64%		14.12%
Ghostbusters Total	23.90%			7.85%
Dune	27.24%			10.63%

 

Sales are very EA driven, so we'll see how that affects things once those days pass.  That plus the mid-week release and discount Tuesday previews are going to make this very difficult to predict.  

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Meg 2	T-8	Jax	4	21	26	26	2,279	1.14%
		Phx	5	28	7	7	4,088	0.17%
		Ral	7	19	15	15	2,358	0.64%
	Total		16	68	48	48	8,725	0.55%
Turtles	T-6	Jax	5	47	9	87	6,390	1.36%
		Phx	6	63	11	124	9,350	1.33%
		Ral	8	46	24	141	6,272	2.25%
	Total		19	156	44	352	22,012	1.60%
Turtles (EA)	T-3	Jax	4	6	21	122	384	31.77%
		Phx	1	1	8	36	169	21.30%
		Ral	3	3	14	127	433	29.33%
	Total		8	10	43	285	986	28.90%
	T-5	Jax	5	7	12	163	961	16.96%
		Phx	1	1	14	113	208	54.33%
	Total		7	9	26	276	1,169	23.61%

 

Turtles (Total) T-7 comps

 - Barbie (Total) - .209x (4.65m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - 1.15x (7.18m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.79x (7.86m w/ today's average)

 - Indiana Jones - .916x (6.59m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .699x (4.19m)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - missed

 - Dune - missed

 - Transformers (Total) - .744x (6.55m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .762x (6.71m)

 

Size adjusted average - 6.55m

 

Turtles pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Turtles Total	42.43%	15.13%	18.38%	14.13%
Barbie Total	49.22%	28.82%	21.18%	15.74%
Sonic 2 (Total)	26.79%	19.94%	18.92%	9.50%
Haunted Mansion Total	35.73%	18.93%	17.76%	16.21%
Indiana Jones	17.29%	12.35%	11.68%	10.17%
Fantastic Beasts 3	44.58%	26.77%	45.47%	10.02%
Transformers Total				8.39%
M:I 7 Total	25.71%	14.27%	18.97%	8.61%

 

Pretty good last day, but can't really line up individual days since most of these were Thursday previews.  3-day pace is on the higher end of comps, but overall looking solid.  Could see around 6.5m after including EA days.

 

Meg 2 T-8 comps

 - F9 - .053x (379k)

 - Massive Talent - 2.526x (1.77m)

 - Free Guy - .384x (845k)

 - Snake Eyes - .828x (1.16m)

 

This is around 24 hours on sale for the Meg.   I wouldn't expect this to be presale heavy, but more of a walkup movie.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo	T-16	Jax	5	30	0	13	4,872	0.27%
		Phx	5	23	0	38	5,736	0.66%
		Ral	7	25	0	9	4,074	0.22%
	Total		17	78	0	60	14,682	0.41%
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-14	Jax	2	2	0	9	841	1.07%
	T-15	Jax	4	7	10	34	960	3.54%
		Phx	1	1	2	16	208	7.69%
		Ral	1	1	0	9	261	3.45%
	Total		6	9	12	59	1,429	4.13%
	T-8	Jax	1	1	0	2	51	3.92%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	123	0.00%
	Total		3	3	0	2	174	1.15%

 

Gran Turismo (Total) T-16 comps

 - F9 - .258x (1.83m)

 - John Wick 4 - .215x (1.92m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .204x (1.8m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .549x (2.47m w/ today's average)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Gran Turismo	T-15	Jax	5	30	0	13	4,872	0.27%
		Phx	5	23	2	40	5,736	0.70%
		Ral	7	25	2	11	4,074	0.27%
	Total		17	78	4	64	14,682	0.44%
Gran Turismo (EA)	T-13	Jax	2	2	0	9	841	1.07%
	T-14	Jax	4	7	0	34	960	3.54%
		Phx	1	1	2	18	208	8.65%
		Ral	1	1	-1	8	261	3.07%
	Total		6	9	1	60	1,429	4.20%
	T-7	Jax	1	1	0	2	51	3.92%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	123	0.00%
	Total		3	3	0	2	174	1.15%
Last Voyage	T-15	Jax	4	10	3	3	999	0.30%
		Phx	2	5	1	1	457	0.22%
		Ral	4	11	4	4	1,093	0.37%
	Total		10	26	8	8	2,549	0.31%

 

Gran Turismo (Total) T-15 comps

 - F9 - .25x (1.77m)

 - John Wick 4 - .206x (1.84m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .204x (1.79m)

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .54x (2.37m w/ today's average)

[ringedmortality]

Hey weren't we gonna get a new thread

[Krissykins]

11 hours ago, filmlover said:

The PLF logjam for the next few weeks is gonna assure Barbenheimer will have to work without those screens when Haunted Mansion will be followed by both TMNT and Meg 2 splitting the screen the following weekend with Gran Turismo after that and Blue Beetle the week after that. Maybe they can reclaim those screens August 25 when nothing is coming out (and a new movie set to play on those screens almost each week from Labor Day weekend until the early December dead zone) if Blue Beetle ends up fulfilling the "pathetic flop" prophecy.

Here in the UK at my local, Meg, Gran Turismo and TMNT are all getting zero IMAX, Oppenheimer has it for weeks on end. 
 

They are getting some 3D, 4DX, VIP, SuperScreen showings though. 

Edited July 26, 2023 by Krissykins

[Eric is Quiet]

2 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

Hey weren't we gonna get a new thread

Wait for it...

[keysersoze123]

Good time to shift as I am not expecting any big opener rest of this summer. 

[reddevil19]

I don't like change.

But considering nothing else is worth tracking until November... good time to close it down.

[misterpepp]

@Hilts Blue Beetle should be on sale within the next two weeks, I’ll have an exact date soon.

 

I’ve also been hinted as to when National Cinema Day might be this year and the details on it, but I’ve been told not to pass that info along! 🤐(Will at least say that it’s not looking like it’s nearly as good as last year’s was)

Edited July 26, 2023 by datpepper

[JustLurking]

Could a link to the old thread be included in the OP? Just to consult it more easily if needed.

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Gran Turismo T-16: 25.61% Awareness

Strays T-23: 28.84% Awareness

The Hill T-30: 14.41% Awareness

The Exorcist: Believer T-79: 23.47% Awareness

Five Nights at Freddy's T-93: 30.8% Awareness

Captain America: New World Order T-366: 42.67% Awareness

 

Haunted Mansion T-2: 56.17% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 89% chance of 20M, 72% chance of 30M, 44% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M

Known IP Awareness: 100% chance of 40M

 

Talk to Me T-2: 24.2% Awareness

Final Awareness: 12% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

 

A Haunting in Venice T-51: 18.04% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 21% chance of 10M

Sequel Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Expend4bles T-58: 27.67% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 56% chance fo 10M, 28% chance of 20M

Sequel Awareness: 67% chance of 10M, 33% chance of 10M

[ringedmortality]

12 minutes ago, datpepper said:

I’ve also been hinted as to when National Cinema Day might be this year and the details on it, but I’ve been told not to pass that info along! 🤐(Will at least say that it’s not looking like it’s nearly as good as last year’s was)

 

Biden should make National Cinema Day a federal holiday

[kayumanggi]

 

[keysersoze123]

Barbie - 60m @Shawn be ready for the pitchforks 

[Brainbug]

@Shawn the 60M low end for Barbie is so conservative, its like something out of the 1950s

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

90-100M has to be the minimum for Barbie this weekend with the weekday numbers right? 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

90-100M has to be the minimum for Barbie this weekend with the weekday numbers right? 

 

$80M low end, but pretty good chance to reach $90M or higher. 

[keysersoze123]

I remember last year BO.com being very conservative on Maverick 2nd weekend(57m) and after its crazy 2nd weekend, predicted the same for 3rd weekend and there it fell short due to some silly Dino porn movie. 

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I remember last year BO.com being very conservative on Maverick 2nd weekend(57m) and after its crazy 2nd weekend, predicted the same for 3rd weekend and there it fell short due to another masterpiece, the wonderfull Jurassic World Dominion. 

 

You had a typo, i corrected it.