The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Flip]

On 7/15/2024 at 10:54 PM, Flip said:

Twisters Friday (T-4)

 

25 showtimes/195 tix sold (+104)

 

1.34x Twisters Previews (T-4) [???]

.26x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-4) [13.14m]

 

34% growth in the last day!! Just a few days ago IO2 Friday comp was under 10m. Theaters obviously expect it to be big, allocation of screens is bigger than Quiet Place and Bad Boys, second to only Inside Out 2. 

Twisters Friday (T-3)

 

27 showtimes/237 tix sold (+42)

 

1.17x Twisters Previews (T-3) [???]

.25x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-3) [12.7m]

 

The same thing happened for Friday that happened with previews: Tuesday sales were weaker than Monday which makes me think something must’ve boosted sales yesterday but I have no idea what it was.

[Flip]

Trap D1 (T-16)

 

8 showtimes/51 tix sold

 

.76x Twisters (T-16) [???]

.35x AQP Day One (T-16) [2.38m]
 

longlegs comps starts at T-14, but in the end watchers should be a better comp (Trap’s first day was higher than Watchers T-4 mark) but it doesn’t kick in until next week.

[crazymoviekid]

On 7/15/2024 at 11:14 PM, crazymoviekid said:

Twisters: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 5 Tickets 

Theater 2: 16 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $3.50M

TFG: $3.88M

T:RotB: $2.75M

Fast X: $2.10M

Bullet Train: $4.60M

Nope: $2.99M

 

Fine start, but should be better. $3.75M for now.

Twisters: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 5 Tickets 

Theater 2: 31 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $4.50M

TFG: $6.65M

T:RotB: $3.80M

Fast X: $2.87M

Bullet Train: $5.02M

Nope: $2.68M

 

Most comps had a healthy surge. Up to $4M-$5M. 

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 18 Tickets 

Theater 2: 34 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $11.40M

TFG: $14.12M

T:RotB: $7.01M

Fast X: $7.84M

Bullet Train: $25.21M

Nope: $6.10M

 

Hrmm, we could be in for a rough ride. Saying $11M-$14M rn

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 24 theaters	227	287	1115	35391	3.15
Wednesday July 17 EA: 17 theaters	21	198	843	4624	18.23
TOTALS:	248	485	1958	40015	4.89

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		724	162	64.93
MTC1:		572	127	51.3
Other chains:		543	160	48.7

 

Thursday Comps:

Quiet Place Day One: Missed

2x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $9.99 Million

3.6x Fall Guy: $8.45 Million

1.24x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $5.82 Million (17 theaters)

1.75x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $7.9 Million (17 theaters)

0.62x Indy 5: $4.47 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $7.33 Million

 

EA Comps:

1.65x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $2.64 Million

2.68x Fall Guy: $2.14 Million

1.05x MI7: $2.1 Million

 

Average: $2.29 Million

 

Wow, could EA really be around $2 Million, or am I wildly over-indexing? Still running really hot here

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 24 theaters	274	335	1450	40458	3.58
Wednesday July 17 EA: 17 theaters	22	257	1100	4844	22.71
TOTALS:	296	592	2550	45302	5.63

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		882	158	60.83
MTC1:		673	101	46.41
Other chains:		777	234	53.59

 

Thursday Comps:

2.05x Quiet Place Day One: $13.93 Million

1.13x Furiosa: $3.96 Million

2x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $9.99 Million

4x Fall Guy: $9.41 Million

1.2x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $5.62 Million (17 theaters)

1.89x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $8.51 Million (17 theaters)

1.8x Wonka: $6.29 Million

0.66x Indy 5: $4.79 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $7.81 Million

 

Ok, time to look beyond the average here and think about what the audience for this will really look like. It won't skew as cinephile as Furiosa, or as old as Indy. It also won't skew as diverse as Quiet Place, Apes, or even Aquaman, I wouldn't think (even though I am not fully convinced of this, this is a disaster movie and that can easily bring in more diverse audiences/walk-ups). For the reason I just mentioned, I also wouldn't think it skews as White as Wonka or Ghostbusters, although some may disagree here. I feel like something in between those two groupings sounds right though, which would mean in my sample something like $7-8 Million Thursday previews. I know that is quite a bit higher than what some trackers are seeing, but I don't see it as super far-fetched.

 

EA Comps:

1.86x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $2.98 Million

2.98x Fall Guy: $2.38 Million

3.99x Challengers: $2.19 Million

3x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $1.8 Million (no ATP adjustment)

1.11x MI7: $2.21 Million

 

Average: $2.31 Million

 

I am fully on the $2 MIllion EA train here

[AniNate]

All of the Dallas area Cinemark EA screenings are looking pretty full, which is rather remarkable given there are so many in that region.

 

I know people were down on the Miami area but Paradise actually seems to be filling up good now. Boca Raton actually sold out a 7pm showing.

[abracadabra1998]

Minnesota Previews:

 

Trap (T-16, Day 1):

Day: T-16	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 22 theaters	67	23	23	6411	0.36

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		16	16	69.57
Other chains:		7	7	30.43

 

Day 1 Comps: 

0.79x Challengers: $1.27 Million

1.77x Abigail: $1.77 Million

2.56x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $2.17 Million

0.79x Monkey Man: $1.11 Million

 

Average: $1.56 Million

 

Just setting up the sheets for this, day 1 sales are fairly irrelevant for a movie like this

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Twisters MTC1

Early Shows(7/17) - 22981/100121 489894.65 406 shows +7695

Previews(T-3) - 40027/632061 751827.32 3318 shows +7673

Friday - 39963/901150 727659.40 +8469

 

FYI the Imax shows have grossed 5257/31354 119479.47 102 shows. So the rest of early shows i tracked yesterday added another 2438. Still the growth for previews and Friday shows its going to have good OW. Definitely over 50m. 

Twisters MTC1

Early Shows(T-1) - 26525/100425 559921.85 409 shows +3544

Previews(T-2) - 47915/709068 889135.83 3894 shows +7888

 Friday - 51370/1113318 918956.74 6123 shows +11407

 

Previews barely accelerated from yesterday. Somewhere in 50s OW. Solid for a sequel that few have asked for. 

[AniNate]

I don't think 50s is gonna do much to silence the negative spin (and tbh I think it would be somewhat warranted). Would like it to get to the 60s at least.

[Ryan C]

2 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I don't think 50s is gonna do much to silence the negative spin (and tbh I think it would be somewhat warranted). Would like it to get to the 60s at least.

 

At this point, I'd say anything above $60M would be great and encouraging for the movie. Anything between $50M-$59M would be middling and if ends up in the $40M range, then the outlook going forward won't be so great.

[Rorschach]

23 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Twisters (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 118/3,307 (3.6% sold)

4 IMAX showings: 26/1,552

3 XD showings: 10/714

12 2D showings: 82/1,041

 

Comps:

Apes: $8.68M

Furiosa: $7.38M

Avg: $8.03M

 

Friday: 183/4,519 (4% sold)

5 IMAX showings: 43/1,940

5 XD showings: 29/1,190

15 2D showings: 111/1,389

 

Comps:

Apes: $31.3M

Furiosa: $20.91M

Avg: $26.11M

 

Thurs + Fri: 301/7,826 (3.8% sold)

 

Comps:

Apes: $38.93M

Furiosa: $26.87M

Avg: $32.9M

 

 

Midwest Joker bb, let's gooooooooooooooo!

Twisters (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 151/3,307 (4.6% sold) [+33]

4 IMAX showings: 28/1,552

3 XD showings: 13/714

12 2D showings: 110/1,041

 

Comps:

Apes: $9.56M

Furiosa: $7.89M

Avg: $8.73M

 

Friday: 242/4,519 (5.4% sold) [+59]

5 IMAX showings: 55/1,940

5 XD showings: 41/1,190

15 2D showings: 146/1,389

 

Comps:

Apes: $30.38M

Furiosa: $19.52M

Avg: $24.95M

 

Thurs + Fri: 393/7,826 (5% sold) [+92]

 

Comps:

Apes: $39.82M

Furiosa: $26.78M

Avg: $33.3M

[Cmasterclay]

thought after yesterday today would bring 60m for Twisters.

[Flip]

If @Hilts was still tracking we could’ve got a better idea of how much Twisters was overindexing in Tornado alley

[Menor the Destroyer]

37 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

thought after yesterday today would bring 60m for Twisters.

Should still be on the table. Friday pace is very good.

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Should still be on the table. Friday pace is very good.

Generally, what keyser says goes for me, though I am still unsure of how much his numbers encompass the Davenport Iowa and Tulsa Oklahomas of the world.

[keysersoze123]

On 7/15/2024 at 10:00 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews(T-10) - 244833/1292688 4442630.05 7952 shows +5533

Friday - 134198/1501286 2479827.23 8350 shows +4612

 

265K by T-7?

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews(T-9) - 251914/1341418 4561872.18 8344 shows +7081

Friday - 139892/1506010 2577098.83 8379 shows +5694

 

Good day for sure. 

[AniNate]

20 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Generally, what keyser says goes for me, though I am still unsure of how much his numbers encompass the Davenport Iowa and Tulsa Oklahomas of the world.

 

Pace could very well quicken again. 

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Twisters, T-3 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 92

New Sales : 36

Growth: 64%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 21

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.4

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 142

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/7

Early Evening: 84/7

Late Evening: 5/7

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/3

Dolby: 40/8

IMAX: 31/6

4DX: 21/3

 

Previews Comps

1.917x Fall Guy for $4.5M

0.687x KOTPOTA for $3.4M

0.836x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $4.9M

0.285x HG: BoSS for $1.6M

0.597x Furiosa for $2.1M

 

EA Comp

2.328x Fall Guy for $1.9M

 

Really big day. It feels like it's catching a tail wind up here. 

 

 

 

Twisters, T-2 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 123

New Sales : 31

Growth: 34%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 21

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 5.9

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 214 (50% jump)

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 12/7

Early Evening: 103/7

Late Evening: 8/7

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/3

Dolby: 57/8

IMAX: 43/6

4DX: 23/3

 

Previews Comps

2.016x Fall Guy for $4.7M

0.732x KOTPOTA for $3.7M

0.804x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $4.7M

0.337x HG: BoSS for $1.9M

0.641x Furiosa for $2.2M

 

EA Comp

3.292x Fall Guy for $2.6M

 

Growth for previews slipped a bit, but it still grew against comps pretty well. 

 

But it's the 50% growth in EA sales that's the most impressive. I stopped combining EA and previews for comp comparisons, but those numbers ere spitting out comps around $10M.

 

My sample over indexes on EA locations, but it feels like an EA number of at least $2M is possible. When comparing to Fall Guy, it's pointing higher.

 

I also think we'll see a big jump on previews tomorrow when EA isn't there to consume demand. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	287	29393	37168	7775	20.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

252

 

T-10 Comp

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	68.87		265	11290		0/353	31386/42676	26.46%		21117	36.82%		24.79m
L&T	105.61		178	7362		0/228	24235/31597	23.30%		16962	45.84%		30.63m
BP2	99.46		201	7817		2/295	29214/37031	21.11%		16800	46.28%		27.85m
AM3	146.17		142	5319		0/238	27475/32794	16.22%		10475	74.22%		25.58m
GOTG3	192.64		153	4036		0/205	25321/29357	13.75%		10750	72.33%		33.71m
Bats	167.82		165	4633		0/288	30971/35604	13.01%		11757	66.13%		36.25m
Ava 2	223.87		162	3473		0/145	18011/21484	16.17%		8986	86.52%		38.06m
Dune 2	301.71		77	2577		0/173	22514/25091	10.27%		6001	129.56%		36.20m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1782/13029  [13.68% sold]
Matinee:    511/4466  [11.44% | 6.57% of all tickets sold]
3D:            908/7376  [12.31% | 11.68% of all tickets sold]
PLF:    3548/11729  [30.25% | 45.63% of all tickets sold]
———    
DP3 sold     228 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     237 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———    

***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.63897x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [39.93m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

 

=======

 

Juuuuuuust a bit of a rebound today, I'd say.

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	289	29259	37280	8021	21.52%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	112
Total Seats Sold Today	246

 

T-9 Comp

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	68.60		403	11693		0/353	30983/42676	27.40%		21117	37.98%		24.69m
L&T	104.85		288	7650		0/237	24964/32614	23.46%		16962	47.29%		30.41m
BP2	98.82		300	8117		2/301	29820/37937	21.40%		16800	47.74%		27.67m
AM3	143.85		257	5576		0/238	27218/32794	17.00%		10475	76.57%		25.17m
GOTG3	189.22		124	4239		0/207	25745/29984	14.14%		10750	74.61%		33.11m
Bats	167.07		168	4801		0/297	31989/36790	13.05%		11757	68.22%		36.09m
Ava 2	219.09		188	3661		0/184	22468/26129	14.01%		8986	89.26%		37.25m
Dune 2	302.34		76	2653		0/172	22260/24913	10.65%		6001	133.66%		36.28m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

GOTG3 NOTE:  The T-9 sold is in fact correct, but the Total Sold jumped up slightly as this is the point in the track when I discovered a GOTG Marathon showing which added 79 tickets to the total amount sold.

 

Regal:      1828/13029  [14.03% sold]
Matinee:     527/4466  [11.80% | 6.57% of all tickets sold]
3D:             945/7488  [12.62% | 11.78% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         3617/11729  [30.84% | 45.09% of all tickets sold]
———    
DP3 sold     222 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     236 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS

———    

***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.6268x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-9 [39.63m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Quick and Dirty Twisters Sacramento Report [T-3]

1445/27848 (5.19% sold) 192 showtimes

[EA: 804/3697 (21.75% sold) - 17 showtimes | Stan:  641/24151 (2.65% sold) 175 showtimes]

 

0.73054x  RotB at T-3         [6.43m]
2.66114x   Fall Guy at T-3    [8.38m]
0.77982x  GxK at T-3           [7.80m]
0.94941x  KPotA at T-3       [6.27m]
1.90132x   Furiosa at T-3     [6.65m]
---

1.10474x   BOSS at T-3         [6.35m]
1.67245x  Wonka  at T-3      [5.85m]
1.33057x  Aquabro 2 at T-3 [5.99m]
1.47449x  GBFE  at T-3        [6.93m]

 

=====

 

First things first.  The EA/Standard split is IN-SANE.  Like holy heck insane.  Not entirely sure what to make of it.  One thing I have noted is that a couple of 10pm EA showtimes have been added for Wed, so make of that what one will.

 

Hard for me to truly judge where this is headed (was glancing at it over the weekend) because the EA showtimes are putting a tremendous thumb on the scale.  But the RotB comp feels pretty good to me as it's the most similar of all the comps, I think.  Could see it touching 7m total, though a lot is gonna depend on just how much demand gets burnt off on Wed night.

 

More thoughts when I get a better sense of pace/just how well Thursday is doing.

 

Quick and Dirty Twisters Sacramento Report [T-2]

1786/32624 (5.47% sold) [+341 tickets] 242 showtimes

[EA: 950/3697 (25.70% sold) [+146] - 17 showtimes | Stan:  836/28927 (2.89% sold) [+195] 225 showtimes]

 

0.71383x  RotB at T-2              [6.28m]
2.76043x  Fall Guy at T-2        [8.70m]
0.77720x  GxK at T-2               [7.77m]
0.94248x KPotA at T-2            [6.22m]
1.94553x  Furiosa at T-2         [6.81m]
----

1.13541x   BOSS at T-2           [6.53m]
1.74585x  Wonka at T-2         [6.11m]
1.40852x  Aquabro 2 at T-2   [6.34m]
1.48462x  GBFE at T-2           [6.98m]

 

====

 

Meh.  No real movement to speak of; still looking like 6.5m-ish combined out of Sacramento.  Strong performance in the Midwest might indeed pull it over 7m though.  

 

Not loving that the RotB comp went slightly down, if I'm honest.  Just have to see how EA does tomorrow, I suppose.

 

(also?  Absolutely no reason whatsoever for there to be soooooo many showtimes for this movie.  I blame @Shawn Robbins, personally)

((j/k, Shawn 😉))

(((mostly 😛)))

[AniNate]

There's not a whole lot else out right now tbh that could compete for screens. They probably do think it preferable to just have that insurance against a walk up surge.

 

 

Edited July 17 by AniNate