The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Unfitclock]

Why did the same page repeat twice?

[JonathanMB]

8 hours ago, AniNate said:

I don't think 50s is gonna do much to silence the negative spin (and tbh I think it would be somewhat warranted). Would like it to get to the 60s at least.

 

I think in the larger media at least $50-60M would be looked at as a win, since that's been the top range for live-action movies so far this summer (Apes, Bad Boys, Quiet Place) and since that's where Deadline set the expectations yesterday domestically. Anything above $58M can even give them bragging rights over "best live-action opening since Godzilla x Kong" which is a little sad to consider, but ah well. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Twisters	T-2	Jax	5	64	41	309	10,338	2.99%
		Phx	7	48	51	252	7,741	3.26%
		Ral	8	66	89	310	7,856	3.95%
	Total		20	178	181	871	25,935	3.36%
Twisters (EA)	T-1	Jax	5	11	75	452	2,391	18.90%
		Phx	1	2	25	62	618	10.03%
		Ral	2	2	5	67	412	16.26%
	Total		8	15	105	581	3,421	16.98%

 

Twisters (EA) T-1 adjusted comps

 - Top Gun 2 (EA) - .321x (1.51m)

 - Bad Boys 4 (EA) - 5.43x (407k)

 - Kingdom of Apes (EA) - 1.6x (2.55m)

 - Fall Guy (EA) - 3.609x (2.89m)

 - Barbie (EA) - .88x (1m)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - .781x (937k)

 - Transformers (EA) - .795x (1.41m)

 - Bullet Train (EA) - 3.06x (4.07m)

 - Creed III (EA) - 2.024x (2.02m)

 

This is a pretty big spread for EA comps.  The closest in terms of number of shows are Fall Guy, Creed III, Kingdom of Apes and Top Gun which would indicate that 2m would be in play.  

 

Twisters (Thu) T-2 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - 3.584x (8.42m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .535x (4.82m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Thu) - 1.285x (6.42m)

 - No Time to Die (Thu) - missed

 - Ghostbusters FE - .985x (4.34m)

 - M:I 7 (Thu) - .692x (4.43m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Thu) - .186x (2.8m)

 - Furiosa - missed

 - Bad Boys (Thu) - .991x (5.75m)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - 1.66x (5.69m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 5.25m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Twisters	T-1	Jax	5	93	92	401	13,012	3.08%
		Phx	7	73	102	354	12,402	2.85%
		Ral	8	81	103	413	9,841	4.20%
	Total		20	247	297	1,168	35,255	3.31%
Twisters (EA)	T-0	Jax	5	13	106	558	2,628	21.23%
		Phx	1	2	30	92	618	14.89%
		Ral	2	2	24	91	412	22.09%
	Total		8	17	160	741	3,658	20.26%

 

Twisters (EA) T-0 adjusted comps

 - Top Gun 2 (EA Total) - .396x (1.87m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (EA) - 1.68x (2.69m)

 - Fall Guy (EA) - 4.19x (3.35m)

 - Barbie (EA) - 1.11x (1.27m)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - .834x (1m)

 - Transformers (EA) - .82x (1.45m)

 - Bullet Train (EA) - 2.87x (3.82m)

 - Creed III (EA) - 1.91x (1.91m)

 - Batman (EA Total)

 

Still on the 2m+ EA train and I wouldn't be surprised with 2.5m

 

Twisters (Thu) T-1 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - 3.616x (8.5m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .592x (5.34m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Thu) - 1.363x (6.81m)

 - No Time to Die (Thu) - missed

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.042x (4.58m)

 - M:I 7 (Thu) - .768x (4.91m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Thu) - .207x (3.11m)

 - Furiosa - missed

 - Bad Boys (Thu) - missed

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - 1.576x (5.406m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 5.36m

 

Jumped 34% yesterday, only behind Bullet Train of the comps.  Hoping for at least +50% today which should put it around 5.5m

[AniNate]

Yeah, I don't want an opening that I'd need to defend as being good because of market handicaps, I want a legit good opening. And I know people have been saying it's Uni/Warner's fault for spending too much on the movie but $200 mil is about what the original cost as well when adjusted for inflation, so for all intents and purposes this is what it takes to make an Amblin disaster flick.

[filmlover]

This movie was also caught in the crosshairs of the strike and the extended shutdown caused by it, so that has to factor into the inflated budget as well.

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Twisters EA - 708/1,486 (6 shows)

Twisters Thu - 885/22,031 (140 shows)

 

EA comps

 - Top Gun EA - .55x (2.53m)

 - Barbie EA - 1.4x (1.54m)

 

Thursday T-2 comps

 - Indiana Jones - 1.193x (8.59m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .663x (3.98m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .472x (4.34m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .245x (3.6m)

Santikos Tracking

 

Twisters EA - 844/1,486 (6 shows)

Twisters Thu - 1,268/22,031 (140 shows)

 

EA comps

 - Top Gun EA - .615x (2.83m)

 - Barbie EA - 1.64x (1.806m)

 

Thu comps

 - Indiana Jones - missed

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .82x (4.92m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .55x (5.06m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .307x (4.51m)

 - Oppenheimer - .68x (7.14m)

 - Kingdom of Apes - 2.22x (11.1m)

 - Morbius - .889x (5.07m)

[el sid]

Sorry, again an addendum. New presale numbers for Twisters in a few hours. 

 

Twisters, counted on Monday for Thursday, had 1.206 sold tickets. 

Up ok 51% since last Wednesday. 

Best sales in the AMC in LA. Had slightly better sales than the Apes in the AMC in Miami (175 sold tickets vs 144), worse in NY (138 vs 253), way better in Texas (30 vs 3). 

 

Comps (always counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): The Fall Guy (2.35M from previews) had 669 sold tickets = 4.25M. 

Uncharted (3.7M) had 868 = 5.15M. 

BT (4.6M) had 879 = 6.3M. 

And Civil War (2.6M) had 826 sold tickets = 3.8M. 

 

GxK had on Tuesday for Thursday (= 1 day left for Twisters) 1.437 sold tickets = 7.75M+.

And Planet of the Apes had also on Tuesday for Thursday 1.229 sold tickets = 4.9M+. 

 

Average (from all six films): 5.35M.

 

Yesterday a lot of shows were added but the sales seemed to be pretty muted (which isn't unusual on a Tuesday). Let's see how big its jump was till today. 

[TheFlatLannister]

Midwest will overindex, urban areas will underindex. The official Twisters number will come somewhere in the middle. 

 

Looking at the data from various trackers, I would say $7.5M previews + EA looks like the target

Edited July 17 by TheFlatLannister

[AniNate]

Looks like It Ends With Us now on sale

[M37]

On 7/15/2024 at 11:49 AM, keysersoze123 said:

sacramento is suggesting sub 30m previews at this point. Not just because of comps but the pace which is still going just eh. Of course in gross I would add a 6% inflation to what ever comps look like for 2022 flicks(based on where ATP is trending at MTC1 at least).

MTC1 pace is also below Thor/Wakanda. This week its going to be well below as those movies had social media reactions boost(as did DS2). 

 

Friday comps vise Deadpool is around 10% better than thor but well below Wakanda whose friday was boosted due to Veteran's day holiday. Of course DS2 presales were in different ballpark across the board. 

 

where is @M37 at the moment.  

Mostly lurking (told y’all I wasn’t going to be much help this summer) 

 

Still in roughly the same place overall, maybe shading up a bit to your $32/$160 mark.  Do want to repeat something: I think DP3 is going to behave, from a numbers perspective, more like a DC film than a true MCU. That would mean better walk-ups, but also a lower PSM and IM. Sacto in particular has a fairly large market discrepancy between those CBM EUs, and the Batman comp (which is probably too optimistic given the especially large & late review bump for that market) is around $36M

[filmlover]

$55M

 

Box Office: 'Twisters' Aims to Stir Up $55 Million Debut (variety.com)

[AniNate]

Hopefully this is the typical trade lowball spin

[Ryan C]

Variety also reported that the budget was $155M and not $200M. 

 

If that's true and I sure hope it is, then Twisters can comfortably make $500M worldwide and be seen as a decent success. 

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Hopefully this is the typical trade lowball spin

I mean that is kind of what the presales are pointing too right now. It's going to depend on walkups and hoping areas outside of the midwest do at least decently. I know we want to avoid the doom and gloom but anything above 55+ is fine and as pointed out is where most live action tentpole movies have opened this summer. The only people who should worry or obsess about the budget is Universal and WB.

[JustLurking]

9 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

Variety also reported that the budget was $155M and not $200M. 

 

If that's true and I sure hope it is, then Twisters can comfortably make $500M worldwide and be seen as a decent success. 

In no way is any number I've seen suggesting this film is making 500M worldwide.

[Ryan C]

Just now, JustLurking said:

In no way is any number I've seen suggesting this film is making 500M worldwide.

 

I'm not saying $500M worldwide is automatically gonna happen, but I'm just saying that if it does manage to gross that much and the $155M reported budget is true, then it'll be looked at in a much more positive light.

[AniNate]

I'm just hoping for $400m worldwide with a hearty domestic total carrying it. That would be enough to at least keep it off any "losers of 2024" bait pieces even if some armchair pundits would still insist it's a bomb.

[Ryan C]

8 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I'm just hoping for $400m worldwide with a hearty domestic total carrying it. That would be enough to at least keep it off any "losers of 2024" bait pieces even if some armchair pundits would still insist it's a bomb.

 

Personally, my biggest fear is that if Twisters bombs, then that would mean that all of this summer's biggest wildcards including Furiosa and Horizon ended up failing. Then we'll probably get a whole bunch of people/articles who will say that "cinema is dead" because people don't show up for either movie stars, westerns, or blockbuster movies made by auteurs. 

 

I don't know, but it would just be pretty bad to see not even one of these movies working and though I think Twisters has the best shot to succeed, it still has a pretty tall hill to climb. 

Edited July 17 by Ryan C

[AniNate]

A $60 mil+ opening would at least give it a chance at hitting $200m with decent legs. Given the Jason Bourne/Suicide Squad precedent a 60-65% second weekend drop is likely the worst case scenario, though if it has better word of mouth hitting a 3x multiplier isn't unrealistic imo.

[TheFlatLannister]

51 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

In no way is any number I've seen suggesting this film is making 500M worldwide.

Yeah, OS opening was apparently dismal. This will likely be very DOM heavy.