The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Boxofficerules]

32 minutes ago, excel1 said:

trap will be a wom sensation no doubt 

Early reviews on RT aren't very good.

[keysersoze123]

I updated earlier post with MTC2 data. I dont think its going to break out at this point. 

[jeffthehat]

On 7/31/2024 at 10:41 AM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Trap T-1

Sales	Seats	Shows
545	8510	84

TC = 26, pulled 11AM EST

Comps

0.26x Twisters T-1 = $2.1m

0.74x Longlegs T-1 = $2.2m

3.47x Imaginary T-1 = $2.5m

0.51x AQP D1 T-1 = $3.5m

 

AVG = $2.59m

Indiana

Trap T-0

Sales	Seats	Shows
834	8510	84

TC = 26, pulled 11AM EST

Comps

0.26x Twisters T-0 = $2.2m

0.71x Longlegs T-0 = $2.2m

0.54x AQP D1 T-0 = $3.7m

 

AVG = $2.67m

 

Average has hovered in the $2.5m-$3m range. Guessing it finishes there 

[ChipDerby]

Ticket sales for Harold and the Purple Crayon start tomorrow!

[misterpepp]

Afraid on sale Aug 14

[kayumanggi]

 

[abracadabra1998]

16 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	98	61	103	8358	1.23

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		51	36	49.51
Other chains:		52	25	50.49

 

Comps:

0.43x Garfield Movie (THU): $825k

0.32x IF: $560k

1.32x Ruby Gilman: $955k (12 theaters)

 

Ok, memes aside, this was a really good update. Gilman having such low sales makes it a bad comp because it'll fluctuate so much, but the other two comps also going up substantially is a great sign. ATP will be super low because of no PLFs and so many tickets being matinee sales. We'll see what tomorrow looks like

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon (T-1 Hour):

Day: T-1 Hour	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	98	287	390	8358	4.67

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		116	65	29.74
Other chains:		274	222	70.26

 

Comps:

0.72x IF: $1.25 Million

2.14x Ruby Gilman: $1.55 Million (12 theaters)

 

WOW. What a stellar finish. Cannot stress enough how low the ATP will be; I don't track that stuff but just while tracking I feel like at least over 80% of these were matinee tickets. Also, no PLFs, versus something like IF, which sold around half of tix in PLF. But that was 5 PM previews, versus 2 PM. So I'll just say these cancel out and I'll stake my flag at $1.25 Million, +/- 0.2

 

P.S. GO SUNI LEE, MAKE MINNESOTA PROUD ❤️ 

[abracadabra1998]

3 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

P.S. GO SUNI LEE, MAKE MINNESOTA PROUD ❤️ 

 

UPDATE SHE SLAYED, GOT A MEDAL!!!

 

(I'm sorry not tracking related at all but I had to plug in my favorite Minnesotan )

[el sid]

I did count It Ends with Us yesterday but didn't report: it had counted for Friday, August 9, 407 sold tickets in 6 of the 7 theaters (no shows in Texas so far). 10 days left. 

Pretty even sales in the different regions which is always a good sign. Best sales in the AMCs in LA (95) and Miami (89).  

 

Comps (always counted for Friday): Crawdads (5M true Friday/17.3M OW) had on Monday of the release week (= 6 days left for IEWU to increase the margin) 87 sold tickets. 

DWD (6.3M true Friday/19.4M OW) had also on Monday of the release week 450 sold tickets. 

And HG: BOSS (13.35M true Friday/44M OW) had on Wednesday of the release week (= 8 days left for IEWU to come closer) 1.328 sold tickets (= 31% at the moment/4.1M true Friday + 8 days left). 

 

So also the Friday presales for IEWU look good in my theaters. 

[SpiderByte]

Busting out the Ruby Gillman comp. Oof

[filmlover]

Harold seems DOA. Always looked like an attempt at appealing to all demos and ended up grabbing none. Doubt Sony is sweating it much when they have what's looking to be a very solid opening for It Ends with Us set for next weekend.

[Flip]

16 hours ago, Flip said:

Trap Previews (T-1)

 

8 showtimes/325 tix sold (+41)

 

.64x AQP Day One (T-1) [4.35m]

3.16x The Watchers (T-1) [3.16m]

.785x Longlegs (T-1) [2.355m]

 

there’s seat limits, but I still would’ve expected more growth (not just Trap but every movie I’m tracking had a bad day today). At the absolute minimum it should do 50 tickets by T-0.

Trap Previews (T-0)

 

8 showtimes/385 tix sold (+60)

 

.55x AQP Day One (T-0) [3.74m]

2.6x The Watchers (T-0) [2.6m]

.77x Longlegs (T-0) [2.355m]

 

bad final day, mainly due to screen constraints.

 

Prediction: 2.6-2.8m

[abracadabra1998]

17 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Trap (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	102	126	494	9392	5.26

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		357	70	72.27
Other chains:		137	56	27.73

 

Comps:

2.84x Watchers: $2.84 Million

2.61x Abigail: $2.61 Million

4.3x Imaginary: $3.11 Million (17 theaters)

1.88x Haunting in Venice (THU): $2.07 Million (17 theaters)

3.5x Last Voyage of Demeter: $2.62 Million (17 theaters)

 

Okay update, not super great. The concerning stat for me is with 1 day to go the MTC1 % is still super high, which does not bode incredibly well for this outside of urban chains. I'll give a T-1 Hour update tomorrow but if I was a betting man I'd go with sub-3 Million previews for now, if just under a little bit.

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Trap (T-1 Hour):

Day: T-1 Hour	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	102	297	791	9392	8.42

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		491	134	62.07
Other chains:		300	163	37.93

 

Comps:

0.3x Twisters (THU): $2.39 Million

2.74x Abigail: $2.74 Million

0.92x Blue Beetle: $3.03 Million (17 theaters)

3.43x Last Voyage of Demeter: $2.58 Million (17 theaters)

 

As usual, bad T-1 Hour comps, I was going to keep my closest eye on Abigail and Demeter and lo and behold, one went slightly up and the other went slightly down. Gonna roll with $2.7 Million, +/- 0.2

 

[AniNate]

36 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Harold seems DOA. Always looked like an attempt at appealing to all demos and ended up grabbing none. Doubt Sony is sweating it much when they have what's looking to be a very solid opening for It Ends with Us set for next weekend.

 

I theorize it was greenlit on the heels of Dora thinking it would be capitalizing on a "live action reimagining" trend, and when that didn't materialize they just eventually decided to dump it.

 

Do think either Transformers One or Wild Robot could've potentially bullied it out of that slot and given each other more room to breathe, but too late for that now.  

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[el sid]

Trap, counted today for today had 1.170 sold tickets (with shows in 7 theaters). 

Up good 36% since yesterday (where it had 859 sold tickets which was a jump of solid 33% since Tuesday). Best sales by far in the AMC in LA (413 sold tickets), decent sales in NY (130), a bit muted in Miami (58). 

 

Comps (always counted on Thursday of the release week for Thursday): The Invitation (775k from previews) had 218 sold tickets = 4.15M. 

Knock at the Cabin (1.5M) had 610 = 2.9M. 

M3gan (2.75M) had 782 = 4.1M. 

The Strangers (1.2M) had 553 = 2.55M. 

Abigail (1M) had 351 = 3.35M. 

AQP: Day One (6.8M) had 2.160 = 3.65M. 

Longlegs (3M) had 1.556 = 2.25M. 

 

Average: 3.3M (as always true Thursday). 

 

The average number went only slightly down since Tuesday, the jumps were good and from what I saw, the sales for Friday are also decent.

The probably mixed reviews could maybe hurt a little bit and I don't like that its sales are less even than those of e.g. Longlegs. 

But overall, judging from my theaters, I can't complain (at all). 

[TheFlatLannister]

19 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

TRAP

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
365	2205	73044	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

391

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(2.749x) of Watchers $2.75M 

(0.908x) of Long Legs $3.00M 

COMPS AVG: $2.88M

 

Still looks like ~$3M to me

FLORIDA 

 

TRAP

 

Thursday 

 

T-0

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
437	3174	90136	3.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 3:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

969

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-0

(3.282x) of Watchers $3.28M 

(0.799x) of Long Legs $2.63M 

COMPS AVG: $2.96M

 

Yeah, I'll call it at $3M +/- 0.2M

 

*Not a great drop against Longlegs so I would surely take the under on that $3M

Edited August 1 by TheFlatLannister

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/28/2024 at 8:30 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

It Ends With Us (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-10	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 22 theaters	69	72	383	6869	5.58
Wednesday EA: 9 theaters	10	95	333	1070	31.12
TOTALS:	79	167	716	7939	9.02

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		115	24	30.03
Other chains:		268	48	69.97

 

Comps (Total EA + THU):

2.26x Fall Guy: $7.11 Million

2.05x Mean Girls (w/ EA): $6.66 Million

1.27x Hunger Games BoSS: $7.31 Million

 

Will have a Don't Worry Darling comp for this on Thursday

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

It Ends With Us (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-6	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	74	311	694	7175	9.67
Wednesday EA: 9 theaters	11	241	574	1166	49.23
TOTALS:	85	552	1268	8341	15.2

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		189	74	27.23
Other chains:		505	237	72.77

(Chart for Thursday sales only)

 

Thursday comps:

1.81x Wonka: $6.35 Million (17 theaters)

0.75x Hunger Games BoSS: $4.3 Million (17 theaters)

0.19x Barbie: $3.94 Million (17 theaters)

1.73x Don't Worry Darling: $5.36 Million (12 theaters)

 

EA comps:

0.5x Dune Part 2: $1.01 Million

0.37x Barbie: $410k

 

Combined THU + EA Comp:

2.06x Mean Girls (w/ EA): $6.69 Million (17 theaters)

 

This whole thing is tricky. I think a combination of DWD and Mean Girls are probably the best comps. I chose those comps for EA because unless a ton of shows are added, capacity WILL be an issue like those two comps. Any other EA comp would spit out a way bigger value, but those comps have walk-ups that this will not have (in my opinion). 

 

At this point a Thursday in the 5-value and a combined THU + EA in the 6-value feels right, but the frontloadedness of this may make those lower

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/28/2024 at 8:30 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Borderlands (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 21 theaters	82	39	82	11076	0.74

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		31	11	37.8
MTC1:		19	14	23.17
Other chains:		63	25	76.83

 

Comps:

0.18x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $1.18 Million

0.42x Argyle: $720k

0.27x The Creator (THU): $370k

 

I have no idea what a good comp for this is lol

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Borderlands (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	90	56	138	11755	1.17

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		44	13	31.88
MTC1:		42	23	30.43
Other chains:		96	33	69.57

 

Comps:

0.21x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $1.39 Million

2.38x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $2.02 Million

0.63x Argyle: $1.08 Million (17 theaters)

0.46x Blue Beetle: $1.52 Million (17 theaters)

2.32x Expend4bles: $1.74 Million (17 theaters)

 

On the come up (slightly)

 

Cuckoo (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	23	46	46	1639	2.81

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		39	39	84.78
Other chains:		7	7	15.22

 

Comps:

0.19x Longlegs: $560k

0.92x Abigail: $920k

0.79x Lisa Frankenstein: $550k

0.67x Thanksgiving: $670k

 

I'll have Immaculate and Talk To Me comps on Sunday. Heading to under 1 Million previews