The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[crazymoviekid]

Alien: Romulus

 

Thursday Comp:

 

Theater 1: 25 Tickets

Theater 2: 9 Tickets

 

AQP:D1: $5.38M

Apes: $5.67M

GxK: $5.48M

Insidious 5: $7.73M

Evil Dead Rise: $2.34M

Nope: $4.84M

 

Pretty consistent $5M-$5.5M.

[Flip]

On 8/10/2024 at 11:25 PM, Flip said:

Alien: Romulus (T-5) 

 

10 showtimes/201 tix sold (+24)

 

Missed A Quiet Place D1 (T-5) []

.83x It Ends With Us (T-5) [5.60m]

.95x Longlegs (T-5) [2.85m]
4.67x Borderlands (T-5) [6.07m]
 

still see it heading for 5-6m previews, pace is standard

Alien: Romulus (T-3) 2 days of sales

 

12 showtimes/266 tix sold (+65)

 

.80x A Quiet Place D1 (T-3) [5.44m]

.60x It Ends With Us (T-3) [4.05m]

1.06x Longlegs (T-3) [3.18m]
4.36x Borderlands (T-3) [5.67m]
 

probably heading for low 5m, pace has been substandard

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/12/2024 at 8:34 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Alien Romulus	T-3	Jax	5	39	51	470	7,073	6.64%
		Phx	7	37	39	499	6,503	7.67%
		Ral	8	40	43	293	5,622	5.21%
	Total		20	116	133	1,262	19,198	6.57%

 

Alien Romulus T-3 adjusted comps

 - Scream VI - 1.095x (6.62m)

 - Nope - 1.54x (10.12m)

 - Halloween Ends - missed

 - Godzilla x Kong - .987x (8.9m)

 - Morbius - 1.126x (6.57m)

 - Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - 1.71x (7.53m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .844x (5.01m)

 - Ghostbusters: Afterlife (Total) - 1.35x (6.46m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.52m

 

Pace chart

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Alien Romulus	36.14%	22.76%	-	11.78%
Scream VI	28.86%	16.00%	10.39%	9.71%
Nope	40.86%	18.79%	18.90%	14.59%
Godzilla x Kong	45.23%	25.23%	24.16%	16.71%
Morbius	33.77%	21.00%	16.47%	14.04%
Ghostbusters: FE	48.59%	19.96%	8.31%	9.67%
Turtles Total	63.86%	29.79%	15.13%	22.22%
Afterlife Total	-	-	-	16.06%

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Alien Romulus	T-2	Jax	5	48	122	592	7,981	7.42%
		Phx	7	37	94	593	6,503	9.12%
		Ral	8	52	74	367	6,945	5.28%
	Total		20	137	290	1,552	21,429	7.24%

 

Alien Romulus T-2 adjusted comps

 - Scream VI - 1.19x (7.19m)

 - Nope - 1.5x (9.85m)

 - Halloween Ends - missed

 - Godzilla x Kong - .953x (8.6m)

 - Morbius - 1.095x (6.39m)

 - Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - 1.76x (7.72m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .994x (5.9m)

 - Ghostbusters: Afterlife (Total) - 1.38x (6.57m)

 - Halloween Kills - 1.39x (7.46m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.91m

[jeffthehat]

22 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Alien Romulus T-3

Sales	Seats	Shows
1232	19837	112

TC=24, pulled 1PM EST

Comps

0.53x Dune 2 T-3 = $5.3m

1.64x Furiosa T-3 = $5.7m

0.76x Godzilla x Kong T-3 = $7.6m

0.97x Twisters T=3 = $8.0m

 

AVG = $6.65m

Indiana

Alien Romulus T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
1433	21753	123

TC=26, pulled 11AM EST

Comps

0.54x Dune 2 T-2 = $5.4m

1.83x Furiosa T-2 = $6.4m

0.75x Godzilla x Kong T-2 = $7.5m

0.96x Twisters T-2 = $7.9m

 

AVG = $6.80m

[keysersoze123]

I think Alien is going for 50m+ OW. 

[TalismanRing]

NYC REGAL Local (Tue: 4pm)

 

ALIEN: ROMULUS (R): 93/1962

 

COMPS:

FURIOSA: $4.93 (R)
OPPENH: $6.83 (R)
JOHN WICK 4: $6.9m (R)
HALL: KILLS: $5.7M (R)
DUNE I: $6.77M (R)
The Suicide Squad: $6.41 (R)

 

Coalescing in the $6.5m+ range

Furiosa dragging the avg down a bit but it was very front loaded.

 

I chose R rated movies that are also IP driven. (Nolan is his own IP) 

PG-13 movies like APQ 3, Twisters, Indy 5, Trans Beasts etc  tend to be more walk up driven.  Comps there are in the $10-13m range.

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 8/12/2024 at 7:57 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

ALIEN: ROMULUS

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
538	5898	111764	5.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

528

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-3

(1.821x) of Furiosa $6.37M

 

Should be $6M+

FLORIDA 

ALIEN: ROMULUS

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
538	6778	111764	6.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

880

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-2

(1.826x) of Furiosa $6.39M

(0.674x) of Dune 2 $6.27M

Comps AVG: $6.33M

 

I think this could push for $7M previews. Let's see how final 2 days go

[ringedmortality]

What happened with Alien, weren't some comps pointing to a 10M previews? Did it slow down or am i misremembering?

[crazymoviekid]

On 8/13/2024 at 10:20 AM, crazymoviekid said:

Alien: Romulus

 

Thursday Comp:

 

Theater 1: 25 Tickets

Theater 2: 9 Tickets

 

AQP:D1: $5.38M

Apes: $5.67M

GxK: $5.48M

Insidious 5: $7.73M

Evil Dead Rise: $2.34M

Nope: $4.84M

 

Pretty consistent $5M-$5.5M.

Alien: Romulus:

 

Thursday Comp:

 

Theater 1: 33 Tickets

Theater 2: 13 Tickets

 

AQP:D1: $5.49M

Apes: $5.75M

GxK: $6.87M

Insidious 5: $7.67M

Evil Dead Rise: $2.09M

Nope: $3.42M

 

Still feeling $5.5M+.

Friday Comp:

 

Theater 1: 11 Tickets
Theater 2: 18 Tickets

 

AQP:D1: $7.48M
Apes: $6.36M
GxK: $3.74M
Insidious 5: $9.55M
Evil Dead Rise: $7.34M
Nope: $3.40M

 

Not the best start, but there's still a lot of time and room to grow.

Edited August 14 by crazymoviekid

[todos]

48 minutes ago, crazymoviekid said:

Alien: Romulus:

 

Thursday Comp:

 

Theater 1: 33 Tickets

Theater 2: 13 Tickets

 

AQP:D1: $5.49M

Apes: $5.75M

GxK: $6.87M

Insidious 5: $7.67M

Evil Dead Rise: $2.09M

Nope: $3.42M

 

Still feeling $5.5M+.

 

Friday Comp:

 

Theater 1: 11 Tickets
Theater 2: 18 Tickets

 

AQP:D1: $7.48M
Apes: $6.36M
GxK: $3.74M
Insidious 5: $9.55M
Evil Dead Rise: $7.34M
Nope: $3.40M

 

Not the best start, but there's still a lot of time and room to grow.

Which market is this?
Probably an outlier from the bigger cities and chains where it’s breaking out post online reviews. 

Edited August 14 by todos

[DAJK]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think Alien is going for 50m+ OW. 

I’m mostly on board with this as well, as long as reviews are decent-to-good and WOM isn’t toxic. In my area (Vancouver Island), every single theater I’ve looked at has stronger sales for Friday than Thursday which, for a fan-driven decades-old franchise, is a great sign for legs throughout the weekend.

 

Still, it’s a horror film so I expect a pretty meh Saturday increase from true Friday (matinees aren’t crazy strong for this type of film) and Sunday drop will probably be pretty steep. But based on what I’ve been seeing, I might go with

 

6.5M previews

15M true Friday

17M Saturday

11M Sunday

 

49.5M weekend

[Rorschach]

On 8/12/2024 at 11:47 PM, Rorschach said:

Alien: Romulus (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 132/1,956 (6.7% sold)

3 IMAX showings: 64/1,164

7 2D showings: 68/792

 

Comps: 

Furiosa: $8.25M

Twisters: $11.97M

Avg: $10.11M

 

Friday: 75/3,170 (2.4% sold)

5 IMAX showings: 49/1,940

11 2D showings: 26/1,230

 

Comps:

Furiosa: $8.57M

Twisters: $8.79M

Avg: $8.68M

 

Thurs + Fri: 207/5,126 (4% sold)

 

Comps: 

Furiosa: $18.48M

Twisters: $22.1M

Avg: $20.29M

 

 

New showtimes were added today, hence the disparity between Thursday and Friday ticket sales. Should balance out in the coming days.

Alien: Romulus (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 143/1,956 (7.3% sold) [+11]

3 IMAX showings: 71/1,164

7 2D showings: 72/792

 

Comps: 

Apes: $9.05M

Furiosa: $7.47M

Quiet Place: $13.89M

Twisters: $7.81M

Avg: $9.56M

 

Friday: 128/3,170 (4% sold) [+53]

5 IMAX showings: 71/1,940

11 2D showings: 57/1,230

 

Comps:

Apes: $16.07M

Furiosa: $10.32M

Quiet Place: $18.81M

Twisters: $11.34M

Avg: $14.14M

 

Thurs + Fri: 271/5,126 (5.3% sold) [+64]

 

Comps: 

Apes: $27.46M

Furiosa: $18.46M

Quiet Place: $34.49M

Twisters: $20.47M

Avg: $25.22M

[Ryan C]

On 8/13/2024 at 2:17 AM, Ryan C said:

 

Alien: Romulus

 

T-2

 

Thursday: 3,884 Seats Sold (Including EA Showings)

 

A 28.7% Increase From Last Time

 

Taken as of 2:05AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: More showtimes are being added (and will be added in the coming days). With the reactions I've seen so far, it should definitely help boost word-of-mouth and interest for this film. It's difficult to gauge how walk-up heavy it will be, but I would be shocked if it wasn't. 

 

The film has a young diverse cast of actors (good for getting the 18-24 crowd) and is part of a genre (horror) that typically skews much younger. These things and being apart of a franchise that does still have a fanbase (if not as big as other science-fiction franchises) could really be a perfect combination in getting this film over $50M in its opening weekend. 

 

Compared to a few weeks ago, I'm not expecting this to go as high as $60M or $70M, but we'll see how well this continues to sell as Thursday and Friday come around. 

 

No matter what, it should at least have better walk-up business than Furiosa. I still can't believe that nearly every film this summer has had better walk-ups or a better final day finish than that film. 

 

Alien: Romulus

 

T-1

 

Thursday: 4,342 Seats Sold (Including EA Showings)

 

A 11.79% Increase From Yesterday

 

Taken as of 3:30AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Not much more to say compared to last time. I'll try to track this one for the next two days to see if there are any potential signs of strong walk-up business. 

 

Not to be pessimistic, but I'm honestly now at the point where I could see this film hitting a wide range of ranges. It could be in the Alien: Covenant range ($35M-$40M), the Prometheus range ($50M-$55M), or somewhere in between that. 

 

I'm still betting that this has the highest opening for an Alien movie (not adjusted for inflation), but like I said last time, I'm not expecting this to blow up to a $60M or $70M opening. 

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Alien Romulus, Thursday Previews, T-3, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 243

New Sales: 39

Growth: 19%

Theatres tracked: MTC4 

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19km

Tickets per Showtime: 13.5

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Tickets per showtime 

Late Afternoon: 25/6

Early Evening: 159/6

Late Evening: 59/6

 

Tickets by Format:

Regular: 21/3

Dolby: 9/3

VIP: 95/6

IMAX: 118/6

 

Comps

2.670x AQP:D1 for $18.2M

1.813x KOTPOTA for $9.1M

1.578x Furiosa for $5.5M

2.209x BB:RoD for $13.0M

 

Average: $13.4M

 

Nothing too exciting with the growth. Right in range.

 

It's still an impressive total. It's worth noting that we're still 3 weeks from schools opening here, so this will overindiex compared to jurisdictions in the US that open earlier.

 

Alien Romulus, Thursday Previews, T-2, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 299

New Sales: 56

Growth: 23%

Theatres tracked: MTC4 

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19km

Tickets per Showtime: 16.6

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Tickets per showtime 

Late Afternoon: 35/6

Early Evening: 192/6

Late Evening: 72/6

 

Tickets by Format:

Regular: 30/3

Dolby: 16/3

VIP: 112/6

IMAX: 141/6

 

Comps

2.718x AQP:D1 for $18.5M

1.780x KOTPOTA for $8.9M

1.557x Furiosa for $5.5M

1.954x BB:RoD for $11.5M

 

Average: $13.0M

 

Staying solid.

[katnisscinnaplex]

16 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Alien Romulus	T-2	Jax	5	48	122	592	7,981	7.42%
		Phx	7	37	94	593	6,503	9.12%
		Ral	8	52	74	367	6,945	5.28%
	Total		20	137	290	1,552	21,429	7.24%

 

Alien Romulus T-2 adjusted comps

 - Scream VI - 1.19x (7.19m)

 - Nope - 1.5x (9.85m)

 - Halloween Ends - missed

 - Godzilla x Kong - .953x (8.6m)

 - Morbius - 1.095x (6.39m)

 - Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - 1.76x (7.72m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .994x (5.9m)

 - Ghostbusters: Afterlife (Total) - 1.38x (6.57m)

 - Halloween Kills - 1.39x (7.46m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.91m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Alien Romulus	T-1	Jax	5	60	68	660	10,144	6.51%
		Phx	7	43	106	699	7,160	9.76%
		Ral	8	61	65	432	7,556	5.72%
	Total		20	164	239	1,791	24,860	7.20%

 

Alien Romulus T-1 adjusted comps

 - Scream VI - 1.19x (7.19m)

 - Nope - 1.31x (8.59m)

 - Halloween Ends - 1.68x (9.29m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .908x (8.18m)

 - Morbius - 1.03x (6.04m)

 - Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - 1.6x (7.03m)

 - TMNT - 2.44x (9.94m)

 - Ghostbusters: Afterlife - 1.28x (5.62m)

 - Halloween Kills - 1.27x (6.78m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.71m

 

*I removed EA from TMNT and Ghostbusters comps

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Alien Romulus	58.64%	-	-	15.40%
Scream VI	43.43%	20.38%	12.56%	15.40%
Nope	91.58%	26.23%	19.39%	32.36%
Halloween Ends	-	-	22.00%	-
Godzilla x Kong	80.18%	29.04%	22.39%	21.19%
Morbius	76.09%	20.24%	21.81%	22.07%
Ghostbusters: FE	66.82%	29.02%	21.38%	26.81%
Turtles	58.06%	33.76%	22.73%	25.00%
Ghostbusters	74.47%	28.14%	18.02%	28.41%
Halloween Kills	97.07%	39.75%	-	26.95%

 

Matched Scream T-1 increase exactly, but below all other comps.  I've been leaning a bit more into Sci-Fi than pure horror comps just based on a gut feeling.  Targeting a +30% today and between 6.5m and 7m for previews.  

[crazymoviekid]

10 hours ago, todos said:

Which market is this?
Probably an outlier from the bigger cities and chains where it’s breaking out post online reviews. 

North New Jersey.  Near NYC

[VanillaSkies]

Something interesting to point out about Coraline 15th anniversary at AMC. It seems they are treating this as a special event. Matinee prices don’t seem to apply at all. I wonder why it’s being treated more like an event (Taylor Swift concert) than a movie. 
 

It certainly is going to give a huge boost to its ATP this weekend.
Example - child matinee ticket is for standard non 3D is $15 vs $11.95 for DM4 at the same theatre. That makes for a nice premium per ticket for early shows, which are family heavy.

 

Are other theatre chains doing similar pricing? 

Edited August 14 by VanillaSkies

[harrisonisdead]

25 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Something interesting to point out about Coraline 15th anniversary at AMC. It seems they are treating this as a special event. Matinee prices don’t seem to apply at all. I wonder why it’s being treated more like an event (Taylor Swift concert) than a movie. 
 

It certainly is going to give a huge boost to its ATP this weekend.
Example - child matinee ticket is for standard non 3D is $15 vs $11.95 for DM4 at the same theatre. That makes for a nice premium per ticket for early shows, which are family heavy.

 

Are other theatre chains doing similar pricing? 

It's a Fathom Event. Most (maybe all?) theaters have different pricing schemes for Fathom Events.

[VanillaSkies]

37 minutes ago, harrisonisdead said:

It's a Fathom Event. Most (maybe all?) theaters have different pricing schemes for Fathom Events.

Interesting. 
This seems to be getting one of Fathom’s largest releases. Usually their releases are a smaller amount of theatres and show times are limited.

 

This seems to be playing most places, with full day schedules and some pretty large screens. Maybe they will begin release larger events. Certainly all for that, the more money for theatres the better!

[TheFlatLannister]

15 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

What happened with Alien, weren't some comps pointing to a 10M previews? Did it slow down or am i misremembering?

Some comps I have are pointing $10M+ but not sure if others are seeing this