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Eric S'ennui

Weekend Thread (8/11-13) | Demeter 750K Previews

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Not surprised to see Demeter flopping. It's a movie no one ever asked for, which failed to generate any real buzz leading up to release. And the poor reviews were the killing blow. It's a shame all these vampire movies bombing lately will likely kill Chloe Zhao's Dracula movie, but it is what it is. I do find it interesting that Universal is solely a distributor and didn't invest any money into the production, especially since they have a stake in Amblin Partners. If so, then I can see why they let it out to die.

 

That Deadline drop for Turtles would be very dissappointing, and indicate that people outside of the core fanbase are passing on the movie. Evidently the stench of the Bay movies is still potent, and we know how grudgeful audiences can be with Indy 5's failure. Huge props to Paramount for foreseeing this and responsibly budgeting the movie at $70M. It'll likely end up making a profit with relative ease, and the franchise will continue to live on as a niche, yet still profitable venture. Barring any Greta Gerwig-style auteur coming in, I don't see the franchise being mainstream again. And honesly? Sometimes there's nothing wrong with that. At least the Fandom Menace types won't ruin it.

 

I'll also drop my hat in the Star Wars ring and agree that Rogue One is easily the best Disney Star Wars movie. The Last Jedi is also the best of the sequel trilogy, although the rotten foundation courtesy of JayJay the Jet Plane handicaps it from being great. Thankfully Rian gave it his all anyway, which elevated it to being a good movie.

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Ugh, what the hell at that Turtles drop. The reviews, cinemascore, and empty kids market place didn't seem to mean jack for it apparently.

 

Really does make Elemental's run all the more remarkable in retrospect. They're very fortunate they kept the budget low here.

 

Edited by AniNate
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Actually kinda feel like the Turtles drop is fine? It's not a perfect comparison, but a 50% drop from its first FSS is slightly better than DC Super Pets, and I feel like TMNT is a film that has more upfront demand, with the fanbase trying to see it right away compared to that film, in spite of its DC connections. Plus it following Super Pets' remaining run (which is possible with both having zero comp and National Cinema Day) would still get it to a solid 148M, which is only slightly less than Elemental and the second-biggest Turtles movie domestically.

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11 hours ago, Eric the Turtle said:

I mean I do remember JDW being solid enough in BlacKkKlansman, even if he was upstaged by all the other actors. And I do think Tenet has issues of just being an undercooked mess that it's not totally his fault he ain't that good as The Protagonist (though again, Pattinson upstages him). So the jury is still out on him IMO, but I don't see anything in any of The Creator's trailers that get me excited for him acting-wise. But again, he has the excuse that Gareth Edwards sucks and can't direct actors for shit, so he still can get a few more strikes before he's knocked out.

 

While I recognize that Tenet has its own problems, I still believe that it would have gotten much better reviews if the lead was just more charming. Especially with Pattinson being so charming, JDW is just like a cardboard in Tenet. Honestly this is the first time I don't agree with Nolan's casting. 

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7 hours ago, baumer said:

@CJohnokay now I'm scared. 🥺

Glad to hear you both enjoyed Cobweb, there’s definitely a theme within the horror crowd that it should’ve been given a proper release.

 

It comes out here in September and so far it looks like a proper cinema release. Looking forward to it. 

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1 hour ago, Eric the Turtle said:

Actually kinda feel like the Turtles drop is fine? It's not a perfect comparison, but a 50% drop from its first FSS is slightly better than DC Super Pets, and I feel like TMNT is a film that has more upfront demand, with the fanbase trying to see it right away compared to that film, in spite of its DC connections. Plus it following Super Pets' remaining run (which is possible with both having zero comp and National Cinema Day) would still get it to a solid 148M, which is only slightly less than Elemental and the second-biggest Turtles movie domestically.

Turtles didn't release on a friday though. The real drop is worse than the raw% would indicate since it doesn't factor in demand it had already burned ahead of the weekend.

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I guess the comparison does give a little context to how its run could go the rest of the way, superpets had a pretty big labor day weekend increase so I suppose an elemental run is still on the table. Still, a 50% drop is surprisingly steep to me given the much better reviews, and the opening weekend as it was really wasn't that great.

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Barbenheimer will climb past Endgame with Friday's numbers, leaving only TFA ahead of it

 

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Even a very average -40% weekly holding rate from here would add another $200M to the current $738M combined tally, making passing TFA's $936.66M far more likely than not, so its really just a question of how close to a billion domestic it can climb

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