Weekend Thread | TAYLOR SWIFT $31M Estimate, KOTFM $23M

[vale9001]

once again lack of very late promotion is a problem and the movies end on the low range of predictions. 

This is dedicated at that banned user after first weekend of barbnheimer said "actors are not important anymore" as if even if Margot Robbie didn't made promo in the last week she wasn't on a promo tour for all the month before 😅

 

 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

2 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

once again lack of very late promotion is a problem and the movies end on the low range of predictions. 

This is dedicated at that banned user after first weekend of barbnheimer said "actors are not important anymore" as if even if Margot Robbie didn't made promo in the last week she wasn't on a promo tour for all the month before 😅

 

 

People are being really selective on which films are hurt by lack of promotion and which aren't. It's hurting films like KotFM but it isn't hurting films like The Marvels.

[WorkingonaName]

Honestly think the  3.5 hour runtime stopped it from hitting $30M, better off watching it on streaming. 

[JimmyB]

Five Nights of Freddy is going to overperform but that will be undercut by the massive underperformance of The Marvels.  November 2023 is looking like March 2023 IMO. A bunch of films with nice opening weekends but when you look at the total for the monthly box office it'll be around 2005 numbers like March 2023.

 

A rough post Barbie/Oppenheimer for theaters.  We now have 2 years worth of data that event FOMO movies like TGM, Mario, Barbie/Oppenheimer are keeping the box office afloat. These movies aren't "A rising tide lifts all boats" effect.  People arent rushing back to the theater to see more movies after TGM or Mario these are the one or two movies they see in theaters all year.

 

2024 going to be a long year for the marketplace.

[CJohn]

Mega bomb for KOTFM. An absolutely atrocious opening. No other way to spin it.

[filmlover]

41 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

AMC is only expecting a 26-27M weekend for Eras. I guess Saturday sales aren't up much from yesterday.

Walk-up business for this is pretty much nonexistent and will likely remain so over its remaining two weeks tbh. Majority of the ticket sales are likely from people who bought them well in advance but had to settle for later dates in hopes that the crowds would've died down by then.

Edited October 21, 2023 by filmlover

[Maggie]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Mega bomb for KOTFM. An absolutely atrocious opening. No other way to spin it.

Reminder that it's a 3.5 hour movie. Weren't people saying in the past that a drama movie if it opens over 20M, then it's a success?

[PrinceRico]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Mega bomb for KOTFM. An absolutely atrocious opening. No other way to spin it.

Agree

[ZattMurdock]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Mega bomb for KOTFM. An absolutely atrocious opening. No other way to spin it.

Well, at least Portugal has the balls to say it. I wonder what Martin Scorsese thinks of Five Night of Freddy’s, though. That’s a review that I’d actually pay to watch. Not really KOTFM, I already pay Apple for that.

[filmlover]

Everyone should've accepted that KOTFM wasn't seeing a profit a while back once that budget was revealed but that was never the goal, this only received a theatrical release just to appease the talent and Apple themselves and whatever it makes is whatever it makes. I think many here underestimate just how expensive it is to make a period piece (those costumes and sets aren't going to pay for themselves, ya know), especially one that's shot entirely on location and the filming permits those require. That's naturally going to drive up the price.

[Firepower]

It would never cost this much if traditional studio paid for it. That's pretty much why Paramount dropped it. It's not gonna hurt anyone since it's very much awards and prestige play first.

[Zakiyyah6]

I was expecting and hoping for 40mil. I knew the film would never make a profit on a 200M budget but I was hoping for that. Apple is okay though, they have plenty of cash. 

[eeetooki]

43 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

People are being really selective on which films are hurt by lack of promotion and which aren't. It's hurting films like KotFM but it isn't hurting films like The Marvels.

 

I am really confused as to how much a jump can promos give to a movie. Personally I usually get interested in a movie, watch it and then watch the actor interviews afterwards. 

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

15 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Mega bomb for KOTFM. An absolutely atrocious opening. No other way to spin it.

I thought this wasn't allowed on this thread anymore? And no, it's not an "atrocious" opening it's a 3.5 hour movie about a subject many people would shy away from. It's R rated and brutal. What exactly are you expecting? 

 

No promotion from actors is another subject. I think it probably cost it 30 million. 

 

Before the pie in the sky nutty projects (which never made sense given the runtime) an over 20 million result isn't remotely bad and is totally in line with Martin Scorsese movies that star Leo. 

 

 

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

3 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I was expecting and hoping for 40mil. I knew the film would never make a profit on a 200M budget but I was hoping for that. Apple is okay though, they have plenty of cash. 

There's almost zero precedent for that in a Marty/Leo movie. Shutter Island was a marketed like a horror movie, and those always open strong. 

[Firepower]

2 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I was expecting and hoping for 40mil. I knew the film would never make a profit on a 200M budget but I was hoping for that. Apple is okay though, they have plenty of cash. 

250+ mln. The initial budget was in 225 mln range plus reshoots after.

[Zakiyyah6]

4 minutes ago, Curiouser and Curiouser said:

There's almost zero precedent for that in a Marty/Leo movie. Shutter Island was a marketed like a horror movie, and those always open strong. 

There's zero precedent for a video game movie to make 1.3 billion, there's zero precedent for an R rated 3hr drama to make 940 million, there's zero precedent for a concert movie to open with 92 million dollars. There's zero precedent for a lot of things that have happened this year. 

[John Marston]

this movie is made for prestige. They know they aren't making any money off it. Hell that goes for a lot of Martin Scorcese movies and even other directors like Spielberg 

[Zakiyyah6]

Spielberg's movies not making money is a recent thing. Just thought I'd mention that he was a blockbuster director, not a Scorsese type of director. 

[Valencia]

19 minutes ago, John Marston said:

this movie is made for prestige. They know they aren't making any money off it. Hell that goes for a lot of Martin Scorcese movies and even other directors like Spielberg 

Spielberg’s 3 1/2 adult drama Oscar bait movie made $300M+ on a $20M budget 30 years ago.

 

Hardly comparable.

Edited October 21, 2023 by Valencia