Thanksgiving 5-days Weekend thread | BOSS: 42.2m, Napoleon: 32.75m, Wish: 31.6m, Trolls: 25.6m, Thanksgiving: 10.9m

[Bob Train]

1 hour ago, joaqs said:

 

Biggest Thanksgiving opener for an R-rated movie is an impressive stat for Napoleon.

[joaqs]

Knives Out was a banger, Glass Onion dropped the ball big time. It went bigger but also much worse and dumber. I'll watch any movie from the series though cause Daniel Craig is just so much fun in it.

[Pinacolada]

20 hours ago, Eric Bonaparte said:

Big issue for Argylle is that these kinds of Bullet Train-style action comedies all get boosted by having some big A-list actor leading the production. Ryan Reynolds, Sandra Bullock/Channing Tatum, Brad Pitt. Fall Guy's probably going to do strong money with both Emily Blunt and Ryan Gosling fresh off his biggest hit ever. Argylle's big headlining actor is...*checks notes* Sam Rockwell. That's not exciting enough.

Yeah and the $200m buyout budget from Apple is ludicrous. He made those Kingsman movies all for like $100m. That's just too much for a movie like this with no real A listers

[MovieMan89]

Knives Out was good enough to make me admit RJ made a good movie, and believe me that was no easy admission for me. Glass Onion was whatever, let it die in the Netflix alg tbh. 

[JimmyB]

2 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Biggest Thanksgiving opener for an R-rated movie is an impressive stat for Napoleon.

Is it? It can't be a long list of R-rated movies that drop over Thanksgiving. Bad Santa, End of Days, House of Gucci. 

Looks like it beat the 1999 Arnold flop End of Days by a million bucks over the 5 days. End of Days finished with 66.8m, 

[Hatebox]

Both knives out movies are fine. I don’t think the same “bait and switch main female character beats the rich entitled male villain” shtick will work a third time in a row though. 

[PlatnumRoyce]

1 hour ago, JimmyB said:

Is it? It can't be a long list of R-rated movies that drop over Thanksgiving. Bad Santa, End of Days, House of Gucci. 

Looks like it beat the 1999 Arnold flop End of Days by a million bucks over the 5 days. End of Days finished with 66.8m, 

If anyone's interested, here's the relevant "the-numbers" query. The Bodyguard adjusts to about 60M 

[Avatree]

4 hours ago, ddddeeee said:

Haunting in Venice is the best recent whodunnit.

Haunting in Venice was ridiculous

[TwoMisfits]

Final Numbers...Wish only beat Trolls by $1.8M for the 3 day...

Weekend Domestic Chart for November 24, 2023

Register with The Numbers for free to see additional data and customize this chart.

← Previous Chart

Chart Index

		Movie Title	Distributor	Gross	%LW	Theaters	Theaters Change	Per Theater	Total Gross	Weekends In Release
1	(1)	The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes	Lionsgate	$29,042,517	-35%	3,776	n/c	$7,691	$98,601,297	2
2	N	Napoleon	Sony Pictures	$20,638,887		3,500		$5,897	$32,752,716	1
3	N	Wish	Walt Disney	$19,698,228		3,900		$5,051	$31,609,340	1
4	(2)	Trolls Band Together	Universal	$17,809,660	-41%	3,893	+23	$4,575	$64,763,725	2
5	(3)	Thanksgiving	Sony Pictures	$7,070,793	-31%	3,204	n/c	$2,207	$24,000,325	2
6	(4)	The Marvels	Walt Disney	$6,325,243	-38%	3,070	-960	$2,060	$76,755,559	3
7	(7)	The Holdovers	Focus Features	$2,798,235	+4%	1,601	+123	$1,748	$12,931,320	5
8	(6)	TAYLOR SWIFT | THE ERAS TOUR	AMC Theatres…	$2,307,857	-16%	946	-627	$2,440	$178,243,751	7
9	(14)	Saltburn	Amazon Studios	$1,860,648	+477%	1,566	+1,559	$1,188	$3,222,673	2
10	(5)	Five Nights at Freddy’s	Universal	$1,729,155	-51%	1,754	-1,075	$986	$136,184,280	5
11	(8)	Next Goal Wins	Searchlight …	$1,638,775	-34%	2,240	n/c	$732	$5,659,837	2
-	(9)	Priscilla	A24	$1,300,032	-44%	1,063	-739	$1,223	$19,602,138	5
-	(10)	Killers of the Flower Moon	Paramount Pi…	$1,105,099	-44%	767	-947	$1,441	$65,675,456	6
-	(13)	Radical	Pantelion Films	$755,341	-21%	325	-136	$2,324	$7,817,638	4
-	(12)	Journey to Bethlehem	Sony Pictures	$650,000	-35%	1,384	-618	$470	$5,725,293	3
-	(16)	Dream Scenario	A24	$639,521	+149%	124	+99	$5,157	$1,387,818	3
-	(11)	Tiger 3	Yash Raj Films	$389,139	-62%	196	-174	$1,985	$5,365,263	3
-	(-)	Anatomy of a Fall	Neon	$91,282	-48%	77	-93	$1,185	$3,372,396	7
-	(-)	Fallen Leaves	MUBI	$41,406	-15%	8	+6	$5,176	$114,511	2
-	(-)	Oppenheimer	Universal	$28,255	-35%	102	-2	$277	$325,361,665	19
-	N	Monster	Well Go USA	$25,603		2		$12,802	$25,603	1
-	(-)	The Exorcist: Believer	Universal	$22,185	-83%	35	-260	$634	$65,532,035	8
-	(-)	After Death	Angel Studios	$19,267	-73%	40	-105	$482	$11,460,826	5
-	(-)	Barbie	Warner Bros.	$13,625	-33%	36	-22	$378	$636,188,142	19
-	(-)	The Persian Version	Sony Picture…	$8,947	-49%	17	-17	$526	$547,556	6
-	N	Menus-Plaisirs Les Troisgros	Zipporah	$6,500		1		$6,500	$8,500	1
-	(-)	Peeping Tom	Rialto Pictures	$6,126		1		$6,126	$90,083	1,295
-	(-)	The Pot au Feu	Mongrel Media	$5,902	-59%	9	-3	$656	$114,357	3
-	(-)	Orlando, My Political Biography	Janus Films	$5,879	-16%	6	-1	$980	$27,860	3
-	(-)	The Disappearance of Shere Hite	IFC Films	$2,327	-85%	2	n/c	$1,164	$20,610	2
-	(-)	It’s A Wonderful Knife	RLJ Entertai…	$2,269	-90%	5	-236	$454	$811,307	3
-	(-)	Four Daughters	Kino Lorber	$1,935	-21%	6	-25	$323	$36,344	5
-	(-)	Common Ground	Area 23a	$1,809	-80%	2	-2	$905	$215,815	9
-	(-)	The Marsh King’s Daughter	Roadside Att…	$1,763	-88%	8	-33	$220	$1,788,180	4
-	(-)	Cat Person	Rialto Pictures	$1,660	+33%	3	n/c	$553	$55,548	8
-	(-)	Scrapper	Kino Lorber	$1,286		2		$643	$210,936	14
-	(-)	My Sailor, My Love	Music Box Films	$1,173		1		$1,173	$87,210	10
-	(-)	Black God, White Devil	Janus Films	$1,032	-68%	2	+1	$516	$6,818	2,723
-	(-)	Strange Way of Life	Sony Picture…	$1,020	-35%	4	n/c	$255	$501,081	8
-	(-)	You’re All Gonna Die	Indican Pict…	$1,002		1		$1,002	$1,002	2
-	(-)	Story Ave	Kino Lorber	$857	+333%	1	n/c	$857	$59,932	9
-	(-)	Fremont	Music Box Films	$725		2		$363	$268,300	14
-	(-)	Carlos	Sony Picture…	$640	+433%	2	-1	$320	$431,374	9
-	(-)	Creation of the Gods I: Kingdom of Storms	Well Go USA	$579		1		$579	$1,706,355	10
-	(-)	Your Lucky Day	Well Go USA	$198		1		$198	$18,232	3
-	(-)	Camp Hideout	Roadside Att…	$108	-52%	1	n/c	$108	$1,125,010	11
-	(-)	Sound of Freedom	Angel Studios	$32	-78%	1	n/c	$32	$184,174,617	21
		47		$116,054,522

[MysteryMovieMogul]

Is Migration a musical?

 

 

Edited November 28, 2023 by MysteryMovieMogul

[MovieMan89]

I was just saying how I’ve seen nothing for Migration, but that little spot is better than the entire huge Wish campaign when it comes to intended audience. Illumination always knows what they’re doing.

 

Major “For the Birds” Pixar vibes with them all being on the wire though…. 

[MovieMan89]

Almost identical Sat and Sun holds for Wish to Strange World last year, and Friday was very similar as well. So in other words, I’d expect a very similar run given what seems like similar reception as well (2x 5 day for Strange World). 

[titanic2187]

At least this thanksgiving weekend is the highest thanksgiving weekend post-Covid. November beat 2021 finally. If marvels and wish didn’t flop as hard as they are now, this year should have the chance to challenge last year’s November. 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

I was just saying how I’ve seen nothing for Migration, but that little spot is better than the entire huge Wish campaign when it comes to intended audience. Illumination always knows what they’re doing.

Ehh, what? Do kids really get excited when original characters they've never seen sing songs from the mid-nineties?

 

I'll agree Wish didn't have good marketing, but I won't agree that Migration's is better for the intended audience because... I don't know who the intended audience is with that ad.

[MovieMan89]

31 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Ehh, what? Do kids really get excited when original characters they've never seen sing songs from the mid-nineties?

 

I'll agree Wish didn't have good marketing, but I won't agree that Migration's is better for the intended audience because... I don't know who the intended audience is with that ad.

Kids don’t care or know that it’s an old song, the cute singing Christmas birds are enough. 
 

Case and point: the original DM2 teaser was the minions singing Barbara Ann (from the 60s) and to this day I will never forget the way the kids in the theater would lose their shit laughing whenever it came on at movies I was at. Illumination are masters with this kind of thing. 

Edited November 28, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Shawn Robbins]

On 11/22/2023 at 11:42 PM, keysersoze123 said:

One weird thing to me has been @Shawn optimistic projections for the Wish. It made sense early on as it is part of Disney 100 and that should technically have projected wish to good OW. But his final projections this week looked optimistic after not so great reviews/reactions to the movie. May be he thought audience would still go as nostalgic of it being Disney 100 but I guess audience have been tuned to wait for these movies on streaming unless its a must watch and Wish failed in that perspective. 

 

A lot to get into here, but the TL;DR version is that Wish's numbers were "finalized" a little longer out from opening day than usual due to some immediate family health issues I've been dealing with for the last couple of weeks.

 

Disney mentioned early last week that they expected 45-50 5-day, which looked feasible based on the most recent pre-sales data I had seen and what was being told to me. I didn't have time to hands-on re-model in the way I usual like to. I didn't actually intend to have the high end of the range in the weekend forecast article but it slipped my mind and honestly wasn't very important to me with things going on at home during that time.

 

Unfortunately, it didn't even come close to that range, but again we're talking about numbers from different points in time. I very likely would have gone sub-45with enough time to pay attention on Saturday morning when I was trying to finalize the forecast early in anticipation of a hectic week. Hindsight is 20/20.

 

Even that would have been too high, of course. I agree with you, though, the major underperformance is a clear indication Disney's audience is now trained to wait for non-urgent theatrical releases until they hit streaming, probably more so than any other studio or streaming service. That's certainly something I'm going to be factoring into long range and pre-sale tracking/forecasts for Disney pics going forward now that we have a movie that's more squarely within their wheelhouse (unlike Strange World) to provide a better comparison point for their audience specifically without things like COVID skewing data.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Shawn said:

 

A lot to get into here, but the TL;DR version is that Wish's numbers were "finalized" a little longer out from opening day than usual due to some immediate family health issues I've been dealing with for the last couple of weeks.

 

Disney mentioned early last week that they expected 45-50 5-day, which looked feasible based on the most recent pre-sales data I had seen and what was being told to me. I didn't have time to hands-on re-model in the way I usual like to. I didn't actually intend to have the high end of the range in the weekend forecast article but it slipped my mind and honestly wasn't very important to me with things going on at home during that time.

 

Unfortunately, it didn't even come close to that range, but again we're talking about numbers from different points in time. I very likely would have gone sub-45with enough time to pay attention on Saturday morning when I was trying to finalize the forecast early in anticipation of a hectic week. Hindsight is 20/20.

 

Even that would have been too high, of course. I agree with you, though, the major underperformance is a clear indication Disney's audience is now trained to wait for non-urgent theatrical releases until they hit streaming, probably more so than any other studio or streaming service. That's certainly something I'm going to be factoring into long range and pre-sale tracking/forecasts for Disney pics going forward now that we have a movie that's more squarely within their wheelhouse (unlike Strange World) to provide a better comparison point for their audience specifically without things like COVID skewing data.

Thank youy @Shawn and hope everything is better on family front as well. This does not matter at all. 

[TwoMisfits]

14 minutes ago, Shawn said:

 

A lot to get into here, but the TL;DR version is that Wish's numbers were "finalized" a little longer out from opening day than usual due to some immediate family health issues I've been dealing with for the last couple of weeks.

 

Disney mentioned early last week that they expected 45-50 5-day, which looked feasible based on the most recent pre-sales data I had seen and what was being told to me. I didn't have time to hands-on re-model in the way I usual like to. I didn't actually intend to have the high end of the range in the weekend forecast article but it slipped my mind and honestly wasn't very important to me with things going on at home during that time.

 

Unfortunately, it didn't even come close to that range, but again we're talking about numbers from different points in time. I very likely would have gone sub-45with enough time to pay attention on Saturday morning when I was trying to finalize the forecast early in anticipation of a hectic week. Hindsight is 20/20.

 

Even that would have been too high, of course. I agree with you, though, the major underperformance is a clear indication Disney's audience is now trained to wait for non-urgent theatrical releases until they hit streaming, probably more so than any other studio or streaming service. That's certainly something I'm going to be factoring into long range and pre-sale tracking/forecasts for Disney pics going forward now that we have a movie that's more squarely within their wheelhouse (unlike Strange World) to provide a better comparison point for their audience specifically without things like COVID skewing data.

 

Just keep pinging us and asking us for ranges if you aren't sure - if it helps, I think you're too high on Beyonce this weekend, but this is coming from someone who is not a concert movie goer who is just seeing showing contraction in my area, not from actual presales or presale rates per se...but you figure if you're losing shows, you can't sell those seats later...so...

 

Then again, maybe, what $23+ ticket minimums do pay off if you get just your core wild base there...

 

Edit to Add: And I hope the family is on the path to recovery now, since you're posting...fingers crossed!

Edited November 28, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Jake4]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Just keep pinging us and asking us for ranges if you aren't sure - if it helps, I think you're too high on Beyonce this weekend, but this is coming from someone who is not a concert movie goer who is just seeing showing contraction in my area, not from actual presales or presale rates per se...but you figure if you're losing shows, you can't sell those seats later...so...

 

Then again, maybe, what $23+ ticket minimums do pay off if you get just your core wild base there...

what is shawn's prediction and what is yours?

[TwoMisfits]

38 minutes ago, Jake4 said:

what is shawn's prediction and what is yours?

 

Mine's gonna be a finish between high teens and low 20s...Shawn's is above that, but he hasn't done his weekend pinpoint yet...

 

Edit to Add: As for why, I see it as very walkup and very GA unfriendly.  Sky high ticket price (over Taylor's) that broke $20 starting barrier, not an actual concert film but a documentary so it looks like snoozeville if you aren't REALLY into Beyonce and her career (so uber-fans really won't be able to talk friends and friends into it), and higher age of fan who is less likely a movie goer...

Edited November 28, 2023 by TwoMisfits