Thanksgiving 5-days Weekend thread | BOSS: 42.2m, Napoleon: 32.75m, Wish: 31.6m, Trolls: 25.6m, Thanksgiving: 10.9m

[M37]

59 minutes ago, M37 said:

Domestic releases grossing at least $300M/$400M/$500M outside the US, by year

• 2019 = 14 / 11 / 10
• 2018 = 17 / 13 / 8
• 2017 = 22 / 14 / 9
• 2016 = 17 / 11 / 8
• 2015 = 17 / 10 / 7

In 2022, it was down to 9/8/5, and so far this year its only 9/5/4. In fact, for 2023, only 14/12/8 domestic releases have reached those thresholds in total, including domestic gross, with only a few potentials left to add to the numbers

In chart form

This is what happens when I get up 2 hours earlier than everyone else in the house

 

 

It appears (and I'm no expert here, so someone who is can correct me), that after 2013 & 14 were stable, 2015 was a transition year.  Weaker in the middle and lower tiers, but exploding at the top with Furious 7, Jurassic World and Force Awakens among others. Those nostalgic big releases seem to have boosted the international box office: not only did the number of $200M+ films grow overall, but increasing their haul as well, as the breakdown shifted higher from 2016 to 2017, before regressing a bit for 2018.

 

By 2019 some slippage was present (effect worn off?), again a very top-heavy year that seems to crowd out the lower tier films. Then of course the pandemic altered whatever trend-line was happening, and we're still in the recovery period (probably through 2024 given strike delays), but the number and distribution has been improving from 2021 and on (with a few more likely to be added to 2023's total)

[ringedmortality]

I liked the first part of Napoleon where it was a weird comedy but lost interest after him and Josephine divorce 

[Hades]

3 hours ago, TomThomas said:

So I assume Rachel Zegler might finally get a successful movie with Hunger Games, not flop at the very least?

 

There is hope for Snow White then...

[filmlover]

Wish will be lucky to hit $20M over the 3-day with an $8M Friday. Absolute catastrophe. After a decade of resounding successes, Disney seems headed for another Dark Age like most of the aughts were for them.

[VanillaSkies]

I guess Ariana DeBose did not “do the thing”. Angela Basset would not be proud.

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

That is true but Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 2 had this breakdown:

DOMESTIC (42,6%)
$281,723,902

INTERNATIONAL (57,4%)
$379,732,661

WORLDWIDE
$661,456,563

 

So it is collapsing internationally, relatively speaking, as this HG: BOSS will crumble to about 130 M WW total which is only 30%  MJ p2, compared to domestic's likely end tally of 160 M WW (about 55% of MJ p2)

I don't understand why you're so hellbent on it making 130M OS - it opened to 56M OS and generally speaking it is doing well in markets that are traditionally fairly leggy. I don't see why that would be true.

Edited November 25, 2023 by JustLurking

[Jean Claude Web Madam]

1 hour ago, Kon said:

 

Honestly, I've never liked the "this character is too perfect" criticism because it isn't a so clear term. For example: Steve Rogers has likely a more "perfect" personality than Carol Danvers, but Steve is a lot more charismatic.

 

The issue is mainly about lack of conflict and struggle, which makes Captain Marvel boring.

 

That's a bit far-fetched, everyone can see that Rogers has flaws, especially when he refuses to back down and be pragmatic over the Bucky situation, and instead fight over it, and his naivety around SHIELD. And more importantly, the scripts actively have him challenged on his flaws.

Just because he's overly virtuous, doesn't mean he's flawless.

[titanic2187]

Can dream scenario beat Massive talent? A bit underwhelming grosses thus far into 3rd week. 

 

-	(-)	Priscilla	A24	$465,594	+112%	-36%	1,063	$438	$18,767,700	29
-	(-)	Dream Scenario	A24	$232,001	+210%	+168%	124	$1,871	$980,298	15

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 25, 2023 by titanic2187

[grim22]

2 hours ago, Torontofan said:

Pre covid was wild

 

Random movies were doing 400 500 million overseas without issues.

I always remember Lucy. That horrible movie did 450M WW with 330 OS. The actual Black Widow movie didn't do that much during later Covid era.

[JonathanMB]

35 minutes ago, Mr Impossible said:

I’m still dumbfounded that Wish cost $200M to make. Did most of the budget go to crack for the crew? 

 

They probably spent a good chunk of money creating the 2D/3D blend of animation they use in the film. Unfortunately it didn't do much other than make the film look cheaper than any of their other films in recent memory so, pretty bad backfire there.

 

17 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Can dream scenario beat Massive talent? A bit underwhelming grosses thus far into 3rd week. 

 

-	(-)	Priscilla	A24	$465,594	+112%	-36%	1,063	$438	$18,767,700	29
-	(-)	Dream Scenario	A24	$232,001	+210%	+168%	124	$1,871	$980,298	15

 

I think that's a pretty decent expansion? Post-COVID platform releases haven't really tried 100-500 theater weekends because their PTAs have been crumbling in that range, so they've preferred going straight from the 50-100 theater range to 500+. Dream Scenario's PTA should be above $4,000 this weekend, which is better than TAR ($3,546) in a similar amount of theaters (141 theaters). It's not quite as good as Past Lives ($3,608 in 296 theaters), but that had Best of the Year level raves, whereas this has mostly solid reviews without an ounce of awards buzz that most platform releases thrive on. I don't think Unbearable Weight is quite the right comparison, as this is more of a Pig performer, being from a hip indie distributor  and all, so I think any total above that movie would be respectable. 

Edited November 25, 2023 by JonathanMB

[jeffthehat]

7 hours ago, Borobudur said:

I really wish it can at least do 70. Lately we have too many movies with their legs stuck at near 3 times. And it is annoying. 

 

Paw Patrol : 2.87x

The Creator: 2.9x

Venice: 2.97x

 

 

Going to watch this movie second round tomorrow! The country music song stuck in my head since I first saw the movie. One part the songs got me emotional but one part we have Viola Davis being a scary villainy as hell. 

 

 

Yeah, the music is what sold me too. I’m a sucker for alt-country. The melody from that one comes from an old Irish folk song, Brenden Gleason sings it in Ballad of Buster Scruggs. It’s also used in an old cowboy ballad, Streets of Loredo. Amazing how a tune gets passed down generation to generation. 

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

24 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I don't understand why you're so hellbent on it making 130M OS - it opened to 56M OS and generally speaking it is doing well in markets that are traditionally fairly leggy. I don't see why that would be true.

Because its 56 M opening isn't your typical 3 days opening as in its most lucrative markets (except for the UK) it opened on a wednesday (France, Mexico, Brazil) or on a thursday (Italy, Germany, Australia).

These very same markets are responding very well to Napoleon and having a steeper than epected drop for Hunger Games, and will also have Wish in the upcoming weeks, and that one is not going to flop as hard in Europe as it did in USA.  It might exceed 130 M WW if it does well in Japan, otherwise it will drop pretty fast.  It is not going to go over 3x multiplier of its true 3 days opening weekend (which is at about 45M WW).

Edited November 25, 2023 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

35 minutes ago, grim22 said:

I always remember Lucy. That horrible movie did 450M WW with 330 OS. The actual Black Widow movie didn't do that much during later Covid era.

That'd be lucky to make $100M worldwide today. Maybe even half of that.

[JonathanMB]

40 minutes ago, grim22 said:

I always remember Lucy. That horrible movie did 450M WW with 330 OS. The actual Black Widow movie didn't do that much during later Covid era.

 

I remember that feeling like the moment ScarJo finally delivered on being an honest-to-God movie star and from there she might be able to open movies on her own. Unfortunately after that she was stuck in Marveland and balancing that with supporting roles in prestige films, and her only attempts at movie star vehicles (Ghost in the Shell, Rough Night) flopped horribly. Ah well. She does have Project Artemis with Apple coming up, maybe that can get promoted by them a theatrical release? It also has Channing Tatum...

[Issac Newton]

 

Congratulations!

[grim22]

55 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

I guess Ariana DeBose did not “do the thing”. Angela Basset would not be proud.

Payback for her announcing Jamie Lee Curtis as the Supporting Actress winner.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Issac Newton]