WONKA WEEKEND THREAD | $39 million OW for WONKA | Timothee supremacy has arrived!

[JustLurking]

5 minutes ago, YM! said:

Though I do think that yes DeCosta got a raw deal with it being clear Iger and Feige are/will throw her under the bus rather than the fact 23 projects in 2 years with only a few raves and the rest being mediocre to bad reception wise is enough to halt a hype machine and maybe their current formula is flawed and that the main cast did get a raw deal (it's telling that only Samuel stood up for Brie when Feige and company were willing to go to war over Scorsese and Pratt), but the key difference is: Wonka costed half as much and has far stronger WOM and staying power than The Marvels. It will break even whereas Marvels won't.

 

This shit was annoying when they bought KoTFM and Napoleon into it vs The Marvels some odd months ago, because yes both are bombs but those were made for the purpose of streaming and accolades and for their genre well KOTFM at least did very respectable numbers. The Marvels is part of a multi billion dollar franchise with a 1.1B predecessor. 

I mean...there's also the fact that the Wonka OS numbers are way better than the domestic numbers really. This will obviously end up with better numbers domestically already, but even if it didn't...after just its second weekend (first in many markets), it has already matched Marvels' overseas total before the holidays even start. Wonka's overseas numbers alone will probably double (or almost double) Marvels' worldwide total...

[cannastop]

42 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

$30 million DOM here we come!

[OncomingStorm93]

45 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

How is that not a flop when you consider what The Marhvrvw dhsssj lynebwha

[joselowe]

2 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Racebaiting over a movie most have already forgotten about is just pathetic. Wonka is a whimsical family-friendly December musical with good word of mouth, whereas The Marvels was a poorly-received entry in a tired old franchise riddled with baggage. The former also cost half, maybe even less than that, as much as the latter to make.

The argument more so has to do with hypocrisy with films starring black actors and/or have black directors. Even in the tracking thread despite the fact that The Color Purple is doing great in pre sales people are literally in that thread saying that the critic reviews are going to be bad (even though all out of theater reactions and social reactions have been excellent)  is going to hurt the box office sales. People on THIS forum have been publicly hoping that the film doesn’t do as well as suggested and literally hoping for it’s failure. They did the exact same thing with TLM. Yet with Wonka there’s a lot of “it didn’t do the expected numbers but it has time” 
 

With that being said The Marvels probably wasn’t the best example for

him to use lol

[joselowe]

9 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

How is that not a flop when you consider what The Marhvrvw dhsssj lynebwha

I wonder if anyone is going to call you out for trolling… more than likely not. 

[OncomingStorm93]

I did catch American Fiction last night, greatly enjoyed it. Wasn’t what I was expecting based on the trailer. The racial satire is kinda secondary to a The Decendents style character study built around unpacking family trauma, in that tragicomedy mold. Not sure it’s an “awards worthy” performance from Wright. He’s fantastic but the role mostly calls for exasperation and resignation from him. Sterling K Brown was the MVP as he often is.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

21 minutes ago, joselowe said:

The argument more so has to do with hypocrisy with films starring black actors and/or have black directors. Even in the tracking thread despite the fact that The Color Purple is doing great in pre sales people are literally in that thread saying that the critic reviews are going to be bad (even though all out of theater reactions and social reactions have been excellent) is going to hurt the box office sales. People on THIS forum have been publicly hoping that the film doesn’t do as well as suggested and literally hoping for it’s failure. They did the exact same thing with TLM. Yet with Wonka there’s a lot of “it didn’t do the expected numbers but it has time” 
 

With that being said The Marvels probably wasn’t the best example for him to use lol

It 100% was a dumb Tweet, and the two films just aren't the same, but what you said about The Color Purple? I'm seeing how folks are talking about that film here, and it's weird.

[Tina]

35 minutes ago, joselowe said:

The argument more so has to do with hypocrisy with films starring black actors and/or have black directors. Even in the tracking thread despite the fact that The Color Purple is doing great in pre sales people are literally in that thread saying that the critic reviews are going to be bad (even though all out of theater reactions and social reactions have been excellent)  is going to hurt the box office sales. People on THIS forum have been publicly hoping that the film doesn’t do as well as suggested and literally hoping for it’s failure. They did the exact same thing with TLM. Yet with Wonka there’s a lot of “it didn’t do the expected numbers but it has time” 
 

With that being said The Marvels probably wasn’t the best example for

him to use lol

I agree with some of your points. I think people are fine with Wonka’s numbers since it’s doing well internationally and it’s also a musical (those have been bombing the past few years). I do agree with the reaction in the threads for The Color Purple. It’s doing amazingly in presales but if feels like many people are down playing it. I can’t wait for the reviews to come out tomorrow. As a huge musical fan, I’m hoping The Color Purple and Wonka both exceed expectations this holiday season.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Tina

[JustLurking]

Please point me to 1 (one) post from the thread where people said TCP will have bad reviews and reception. I sure as hell don't remember anyone saying that at all.

Edited December 18, 2023 by JustLurking

[Cmasterclay]

I understand based on M37's numbers and matinee prices that Color Purple is more likely to do around 20 than 25m+ on Christmas, but my hot take is that it and Wonka get within 25m of each other domestically. 185 for Wonka, 150 for Color Purple. What's interesting is that if Wonka did 250 and Color Purple did 75 like people here seem to have expected, then it would be considered better for the box office even though the actual reality adds up to a little more money. People setting themselves up for disappointment a bit Wonka wise.

[M37]

1 hour ago, ChipDerby said:

 

This site is ruining box office predictions. You can just enjoy tracking movies instead of analyzing sales.

If you’re saying that the analysis and tracking has gotten so good that it’s taken a lot of mystery/suspense - aka “fun” - out of watching these runs, that’s a valid complaint 

 

But don’t think using data to set reasonable expectations- which films can still beat or fall short or! - is a bad thing. There’s a lot of noise flung around, both too high and too low which doesn’t have any solid rationale basis 

[Arlborn]

4 hours ago, ando said:

Lolol

 

 

 

 

 

Since when do we care about what people outside of the BO world say? They really shouldn't be taken seriously enough to analyze their position in any serious way. It's like a toddler talking about adult matters, they really don't understand the nuances of it.

 

2 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Please point me to 1 (one) post from the thread where people said TCP will have bad reviews and reception. I sure as hell don't remember anyone saying that at all.

It's somewhere in the Buzz thread iirc

[BadOlCatSylvester]

7 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I understand based on M37's numbers and matinee prices that Color Purple is more likely to do around 20 than 25m+ on Christmas, but my hot take is that it and Wonka get within 25m of each other domestically. 185 for Wonka, 150 for Color Purple. What's interesting is that if Wonka did 250 and Color Purple did 75 like people here seem to have expected, then it would be considered better for the box office even though the actual reality adds up to a little more money. People setting themselves up for disappointment a bit Wonka wise.

I still think Colour Purple will win over Wonka and the month overall, as from what I've gleamed the subject matter for the former seems like it'd be more well-suited to be a breakout in America over a Willy Wonka prequel movie. Overseas is going to be a different story though, as black movies have generally struggled internationally relative to how they perform in America. And how many foreigners know what Colour Purple is? I didn't until Warner initially announced this musical remake back in 2020.

Edited December 18, 2023 by BadOlCatSylvester

[JustLurking]

4 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

 

Since when do we care about what people outside of the BO world say? They really shouldn't be taken seriously enough to analyze their position in any serious way. It's like a toddler talking about adult matters, they really don't understand the nuances of it.

 

It's somewhere in the Buzz thread iirc

The literal only instance I found was one guy posting the "is it though?" thor gif in response to a person saying TCP could get a review bump. So yeah, I guess there is (kinda) one post. Seems like little material to pretend people have it out for TCP.

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I still think Colour Purple will win over Wonka and the month overall, as from what I've gleamed the subject matter for the former seems like it'd be more well-suited to be a breakout in America over a Willy Wonka prequel movie. Overseas is going to be a different story though, as black movies have generally struggled internationally relative to how they perform in America. And how many foreigners know what Colour Purple is? I didn't until Warner initially announced it back in 2020.

I mean Color Purple is going to make very little money outside of liberal parts of Western Europe and a few other places, but it is selling like a genuine blockbuster domestically in a way Wonka never, ever came close to in my area. Plus it still has review bump and additional screenings being added.

[ChipDerby]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

If you’re saying that the analysis and tracking has gotten so good that it’s taken a lot of mystery/suspense - aka “fun” - out of watching these runs, that’s a valid complaint 

 

But don’t think using data to set reasonable expectations- which films can still beat or fall short or! - is a bad thing. There’s a lot of noise flung around, both too high and too low which doesn’t have any solid rationale basis 

 

People aren't rational! That's why we track box office. No "analysis" told us Sound of Freedom was going to make almost $200 mil, because it was irrational. I remember when Wonder Woman came out and everyone was adamant that it wouldn't make $300 mil AFTER it opened. Let alone $412 mil. Things happen. @baumer should even know this, as we essentially drove someone off this site for saying WW wouldn't hit $400 mil instead of him paying $1,000.

 

Going around telling people something won't happen makes you THAT guy. 

[joselowe]

19 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Please point me to 1 (one) post from the thread where people said TCP will have bad reviews and reception. I sure as hell don't remember anyone saying that at all

And that’s just from the last few pages,  there are many more!

[JustLurking]

7 minutes ago, joselowe said:

And that’s just from the last few pages,  there are many more!

Fair enough then. I think it'll do well in the US (and I wouldn't rule out it beating Wonka there) but I hope the budget isn't too high as this strikes me as a film that goes like 75-80% DOM share.

[joselowe]

8 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Fair enough then. I think it'll do well in the US (and I wouldn't rule out it beating Wonka there) but I hope the budget isn't too high as this strikes me as a film that goes like 75-80% DOM share.

Oprah said it was $90 to $100 million

https://people.com/oprah-winfrey-was-asked-to-cast-beyonce-or-rihanna-in-the-color-purple-8415167