MLK Weekend Thread | 3-Day/4-Day Estimates: Mean Girls 28/32, Beekeeper 16.8/19.2, Wonka 8.4/10.9, Migration 6.2/8.3, Anyone 6.9/8.2

[Valonqar]

13 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

 I mean it is one of the biggest bombs of all time and dropped 90% from its predecessor. It’s probably one of the most iconic moments in box office history 

 

This. I've never seen Heaven's Gate but I know that it was the biggest bomb of all times that killed a studio, cause whenever something bombs really big they say it's so and so's Heaven's Gate. Golden Compass was New Line Cinea's Heaven's Gate cause it killed the studio. Norbit was Eddie Murphy's Heaven's Gate cause it lost him the Oscar for Dreamgirls. So now The Marvels is the new iconic bomb that will give Heaven's Gate a well deserved retirement. 

Edited January 13 by Valonqar

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Once again Universal is paying attention for their Twisters marketing.

 

as they should. Forge iron while it's hot and this iron is very hot. 

[VanillaSkies]

4 hours ago, grim22 said:

Why would people pay to watch a kids movie which is free on streaming?

 

Going to a kids movie is a lot of work, get the family ready to be there in time, find parking, get enough concessions for everyone, pay for 3-5 tickets. Versus just pressing play on Disney+

 After this performance, I think a lot less theatres will be willing to take a chance on the other two. Especially since they are coming out in more crowded periods. Just a stupid idea, and awful execution.

[DAJK]

44 minutes ago, Eric George said:

A lot of y’all’s obsession with The Marvels bombing is getting pretty darn old if you ask me. And weird.

I mean, people STILL talk about John Carter, Lone Ranger, Pluto Nash  Marvels came out a few months ago. I get that coming at this as a mod must be a different perspective that I don’t have, since I don’t have to police fanboy wars etc. But a box office forum talking about one of the biggest bombs in history 2 months after it has come out is pretty damn normal to me.

[VanillaSkies]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Not disputing that ABY has had a strong (and surprising!) run since Xmas, but think we need to not go too crazy, projecting out a run similar to Showman (for which I remind everyone, had Jan/Feb+ legs better than Avatar)

 

Picking some higher end comps, looking at their gross from this week onward, compared to the post-New Years week baseline, and also how they did for the MLK week (not weekend) specifically 

 

Puss in Boots = 5.08x (+19.6%)

Showman = 4.67x (+0.4%) (see!)

Avatar = 4.29x (-5.1%)

Jumanji WTJ = 3.11x (-14.6%)

NWH = 3.01x (-31.3%)

Night at Museum = 2.88x (-15.3%)

Avatar 2 = 2.67x (-22.6%)

 

Fairly strong correlation between the MLK hold and overall legs that follow. ABY needs a 3.67x from this past weeks $14M to reach $100M, and I would probably set expectations closer to Jumanji WTJ/Museum type legs (including a 10-15% or so drop for this week), getting to to $90M+ (3x), with a shot a $100M

Anyone But You had an ace up its sleeve though. Valentine’s Day is now a month away, and there is no real “date movie” coming out for it this year. With its excellent hold this weekend when it was up against both Mean Girls and a winter storm, it’s going to keep a lot of theatres in the quiet weeks ahead. If Sony plays it right and does a little bit of marketing positioning this as a good date movie for that week, it could make the difference between it passing 100 million or not. I’m not ready to bed against this movie after the run it’s been having this far.

[MovieMan89]

MG’s audience score being lower than the critic one shows how unnecessary and desperate this remake always was. 
 

I will maintain there is potential for an inspired script in the Mean Moms premise. 

[John Marston]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

I mean, people STILL talk about John Carter, Lone Ranger, Pluto Nash  Marvels came out a few months ago. I get that coming at this as a mod must be a different perspective that I don’t have, since I don’t have to police fanboy wars etc. But a box office forum talking about one of the biggest bombs in history 2 months after it has come out is pretty damn normal to me.

 

people still talk about Waterworld and that’s not even close to one of the biggest bombs these days 

[AniNate]

2 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:

 After this performance, I think a lot less theatres will be willing to take a chance on the other two. Especially since they are coming out in more crowded periods. Just a stupid idea, and awful execution.

 

Getting the three movies some kind of theatrical release is objectively a good idea. I really don't care how much they make and I don't think Disney does either, but they deserved at least some kind of effort to give them a theatrical engagement. It's not real different from the Disney100 rereleases they were doing last year.

 

This is one of those times where you really have to check the financial brain and recognize this was a PR move for the fans first and foremost. 

 

 

Edited January 13 by AniNate

[cannastop]

17 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

Getting the three movies some kind of theatrical release is objectively a good idea. I really don't care how much they make and I don't think Disney does either, but they deserved at least some kind of effort to give them a theatrical engagement. It's not real different from the Disney100 rereleases they were doing last year.

 

This is one of those times where you really have to check the financial brain and recognize this was a PR move for the fans first and foremost. 

 

 

Well, maybe PR and to repair relations at Pixar. The theatrical releases help the layoffs go down.

[AniNate]

Well, I don't think they offset layoffs but yes, they did improve Disney's online cred after Wish bombed. 

 

I will say wouldn't be surprised if TR and Luca's theater counts are reduced, but hopefully every major market is covered by at least one theater still. 

[Avatree]

I just watched the Beekeeper. Really enjoyed it. Good fun. First film of the year for me, off to a good start.

[KP1025]

3 hours ago, John Marston said:

 

 

 I mean it is one of the biggest bombs of all time and dropped 90% from its predecessor. It’s probably one of the most iconic moments in box office history 

 

The drop was more like 80% (still abysmal). But otherwise, I agree.

[MovieMan89]

These Pixar re-releases were thrown out to die, let’s be real. That was apparent as soon as the one month spacing was revealed, plus they barely bothered to push awareness they were happening at all. 
 

That said, Soul was always a doomed movie for box office no matter what. It’s just not a premise you can really market to kids very well, and even targeting an adult audience is kinda hard for it. 

Edited January 14 by MovieMan89

[M37]

3 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:

Anyone But You had an ace up its sleeve though. Valentine’s Day is now a month away, and there is no real “date movie” coming out for it this year. With its excellent hold this weekend when it was up against both Mean Girls and a winter storm, it’s going to keep a lot of theatres in the quiet weeks ahead. If Sony plays it right and does a little bit of marketing positioning this as a good date movie for that week, it could make the difference between it passing 100 million or not. I’m not ready to bed against this movie after the run it’s been having this far.

Nobody said you had to bet against it, and I even said $100M is possible, just don’t think we’re at the likely stage - Showman is a really high bar to meet 

 

Spoiler

I just get a little tired of the cycle of overly optimistic projections followed by pages of doom and gloom when they fall short in all but the exceptional cases (like we just saw with Wonka and a $250M bar)

 

Round numbers are nice, but often it’s a stretch to reach those thresholds 

 

Edited January 14 by M37

[MovieMan89]

TGS did have a wed opening so it seems pretty likely ABY would be beating TGS’ multi if not for that. I think 18x could happen, which is still pretty damn close to TGS 20x. 

[DAJK]

The weather is making it hard to try and extrapolate domestic numbers based on what’s going on in BC/Canada. But jumps for both of the big openers are very solid today (Mean Girls will easily surpass true Friday, with quite a bit of extra on top). Beekeeper is also seeing some nice jumps from true Friday. Book of Clarence doing nothing but I’m not surprised.

 

As for Anyone But You, Canada must be pulling a Portugal @CJohn. It was already ahead of Beekeeper in total tickets on Friday, and it’s absolutely running away with that title today as well. 
 

Now again, while pretty awful and unpredictable weather in my region this weekend makes it hard to confidently say anything about what this means for Saturday numbers, based on what I’m seeing I wouldn’t be surprised with 9-9.5M Saturday for Mean Girls, 6-6.5M for Beekeeper, and over 3M for ABY. I’ve been saying for a while that while there are no true “blockbuster numbers” happening right now, the past few months have been really strong for the depth of the box office. Everything is pulling in solid numbers, even movies like American Fiction in its expansion. Movie theaters are having a good weekend.

[emoviefan]

23 minutes ago, DAJK said:

The weather is making it hard to try and extrapolate domestic numbers based on what’s going on in BC/Canada. But jumps for both of the big openers are very solid today (Mean Girls will easily surpass true Friday, with quite a bit of extra on top). Beekeeper is also seeing some nice jumps from true Friday. Book of Clarence doing nothing but I’m not surprised.

 

As for Anyone But You, Canada must be pulling a Portugal @CJohn. It was already ahead of Beekeeper in total tickets on Friday, and it’s absolutely running away with that title today as well. 
 

Now again, while pretty awful and unpredictable weather in my region this weekend makes it hard to confidently say anything about what this means for Saturday numbers, based on what I’m seeing I wouldn’t be surprised with 9-9.5M Saturday for Mean Girls, 6-6.5M for Beekeeper, and over 3M for ABY. I’ve been saying for a while that while there are no true “blockbuster numbers” happening right now, the past few months have been really strong for the depth of the box office. Everything is pulling in solid numbers, even movies like American Fiction in its expansion. Movie theaters are having a good weekend.

And it is funner to follow box office when it is not just one movie sucking the oxygen out of the room. That's what will make this year fun to follow with so few 800 lb gorillas coming out. 

[cannastop]

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

These Pixar re-releases were thrown out to die, let’s be real. That was apparent as soon as the one month spacing was revealed, plus they barely bothered to push awareness they were happening at all. 
 

That said, Soul was always a doomed movie for box office no matter what. It’s just not a premise you can really market to kids very well, and even targeting an adult audience is kinda hard for it. 

I dunno, I did hear some people think that it would have been a big hit in a non pandemic 2020.

[Johnny Tran]

6 hours ago, Valonqar said:

 

what's really hilarious is that it's considered hilarious. In a normal world, anyone would guess that ABY would be big with women (romcom, fashionable female lead, hot male lead) while a nerd movie would not. And yet here we are.

 

Disney thought they knew what women wanted and proved they know less about women than a 40-Year Old Virgin. 

[Johnny Tran]

By the way, there's posts about BvS bombing in this very thread nearly 8 years after it came out and that movie was actually profitable.  There's always going to be discussion about movies that changed the course of history and I think 'The Marvels' qualifies for that.  It's the moment where comic book movies stopped being THE thing...