MLK Weekend Thread | 3-Day/4-Day Estimates: Mean Girls 28/32, Beekeeper 16.8/19.2, Wonka 8.4/10.9, Migration 6.2/8.3, Anyone 6.9/8.2

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[PlatnumRoyce]

On 1/13/2024 at 11:59 PM, MovieMan89 said:

I think people thought because it’s a very good movie it should do well, but the premise is heavy for Disney branded animation. Pixar did make “rat cooks your meals” work at the box office, but only because WOM was so good it saved the day. Thats what would have had to happen for Soul. 

Didn't it also do well in China in real world 2020?

 

I don't know if this a good argument or not but I was always high on Soul because the marketing vaguely looked like a spiritual sequel to Inside Out which was then still a relatively recent big Pixar hit. 

[Kon]

39 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

The box office for Sunday was slightly bigger than predictions. It seems Mean Girls doesn't affect this ABY so much.

Edited January 15 by Kon

[Kon]

It's pretty early. I know digital sales don't really affect box office, but it seems too early and sudden.

Edited January 15 by Kon

[LegendaryBen]

ABY needs to drop on average 10% or less every weekend (not easy, but not impossible) to have a chance at 100m DOM. Luckily, it has Ghostbusters to fudge the number if it's at $98 or 99m by then. Realistically, it should finish above $80m and surpass The Marvels ($84.5m). Still, it does not have anything affecting it until at least mid-February (I imagine Madame Web will only help instead of hurt it due to V-Day's release).

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

So with all the talk about musicals not being advertised as musicals, are they just gonna do the same thing with Joker 2? 

[wildphantom]

40 minutes ago, Kon said:

It's pretty early. I know digital sales don't really affect box office, but it seems too early and sudden.

well when it hasn’t released in some major territories yet (we don’t get it in the U.K. until Jan 26th) then it absolutely will have some who would have gone now not having to.  
 

Me? I’ll be there to see it when it opens, but I have plenty of friends who will have seen this by the end of the week thanks to this. Not cool, but just reality. 

[Mojoguy]

1 hour ago, Kon said:

It's pretty early. I know digital sales don't really affect box office, but it seems too early and sudden.

TCP's boxoffice is run basically over. Worst legs than anyone expected. Black male audience completely rejected it because there was an evil black guy in it, makes you realize how important representation is to audiences.

[Bob Train]

48 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

So with all the talk about musicals not being advertised as musicals, are they just gonna do the same thing with Joker 2? 

I doubt Joker 2 is a full-on musical. It'll have like 2 musical numbers tops. Like Barbie.

[grim22]

https://variety.com/2024/film/features/mean-girls-movie-musical-marketing-strategy-1235867996/

 

Why Paramount Didn’t Market ‘Mean Girls’ as a Musical: ‘People Tend to Treat’ Them ‘Differently’

 

Paramount, which released the movie over the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend, chose not to explicitly market it as a song-and-dance spectacle, according to the studio’s president of global marketing Marc Weinstock. 

“To start off saying musical, musical, musical, you have the potential to turn off audiences,” he says. “I want everyone to be equally excited.” 

 

Did you intentionally avoid advertising the movie as a musical?  

We didn’t want to run out and say it’s a musical because people tend to treat musicals differently. This movie is a broad comedy with music. Yes, it could be considered a musical but it appeals to a larger audience. You can see in [trailers for] “Wonka” and “The Color Purple,” they don’t say musical either. We have a musical note on the title, so there are hints to it without being overbearing.

 

[\quote]

[Mojoguy]

5 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

I doubt Joker 2 is a full-on musical. It'll have like 2 musical numbers tops. Like Barbie.

They will just be dream sequences at most. Probably just in Quinn or Joker's head.

[titanic2187]

22 hours ago, Valonqar said:

 

Not sure if Heron studio is trying the same tactic but movies that expect Oscar nominations tend to drop theaters for MLK weekend or 2 weeks before noms and then go wide after the noms. Usually not super wide (over 1.5K but under 2K) but wide enough. 

 

This is when you are up for the run in best Picture race. I don't think there is any slot left for Heron.

 

20 hours ago, filmlover said:

$3K PTA from 625 theaters is pretty good considering it's being put in smaller auditoriums at a lot of places and the storms taking some theaters offline this weekend. Should be around for a while IMO, especially if it lands a Best Picture nomination.

3k from 625 is just normal good not something worth screaming. Fabelmans, Bottoms and Holdovers got better PTA at this point of run. Unless the movie start leg out like PT, AF would still pretty much stuck in a 10-20m range like most of the platform release. AF got 90% posttrak, one point lower than Holdovers. I would expect their run to be similar from here.

[Kon]

37 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

TCP's boxoffice is run basically over. Worst legs than anyone expected. Black male audience completely rejected it because there was an evil black guy in it, makes you realize how important representation is to audiences.

I'm not sure I would call this a representation issue. In twitter, the accusation against TCP is that "hates black men".

 

TCP doesn't seem to be popular between black male audience, but the studio must not have expected much interest from this audience to start.

 

Honestly, I think the biggest problem is how few people under 25 years old has attracted this movie. The demographics show there were more men over 25 (21%) than women under 25 (14%).

Edited January 15 by Kon

[TRISTAN]

19 hours ago, Johnny Tran said:

Aquaman 2 looks like it's locked for $120M and $400M worldwide.  Not a terrible result all things considered. 

Aquaman 1 grossed $1152 million worldwide..... Aquaman 2  grossed one third of that. How come it's not a utter terrible result ?!

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, Kon said:

It's pretty early. I know digital sales don't really affect box office, but it seems too early and sudden.

It’s early because like someone else said, it hasn’t opened overseas at all yet. PVOD doesn’t have a major impact on the US, but if the film isn’t available at all overseas yet, it’ll certainly impact. 

 

 

40 minutes ago, TRISTAN said:

Aquaman 1 grossed $1152 million worldwide..... Aquaman 2  grossed one third of that. How come it's not a utter terrible result ?!

Because of the end of the post you quoted “….all things considered”. 

[HummingLemon496]

45 minutes ago, TRISTAN said:

Aquaman 1 grossed $1152 million worldwide..... Aquaman 2  grossed one third of that. How come it's not a utter terrible result ?!

all things considered

 

 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

Studios really need to figure out their digital platform strategies. Because movies that don't do well at the box office get to streaming within a month or two, more people are realizing they can just wait for streaming. Because all films eventually come to streaming!

[Johnny Tran]

1 hour ago, TRISTAN said:

Aquaman 1 grossed $1152 million worldwide..... Aquaman 2  grossed one third of that. How come it's not a utter terrible result ?!

 

It's a sequel to a now defunct franchise, They didn't market it. They dumped it and left it to die...   and it's going to do well over $400M worldwide.  Over 2x the gross of Shazam 2, The Marvels, Blue Beetle and way more than The Flash as well. 

[HummingLemon496]

10 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

It's a sequel to a now defunct franchise, They didn't market it. They dumped it and left it to die...   and it's going to do well over $400M worldwide.  Over 2x the gross of Shazam 2, The Marvels, Blue Beetle and way more than The Flash as well. 

$100M in marketing 

[JimmyB]

13 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

It's a sequel to a now defunct franchise, They didn't market it. They dumped it and left it to die...   and it's going to do well over $400M worldwide.  Over 2x the gross of Shazam 2, The Marvels, Blue Beetle and way more than The Flash as well. 

The didnt market it comments are so full of sh*t. Aquaman had commercials during NFL and NBA games for the past 2 months before it's release, Momoa made all the media rounds from the Late Show, Today Show, Good Morning America...etc.   That's call marketing. 

Edited January 15 by JimmyB