Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

[JimmyB]

36 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

John Wick 4 lost all PLFs to Dungeons and Dragons second weekend. Really frustrating performance for that one 

True. I just find it interesting how March 2024 could just be a repeat of March 2023.

 

Dune 2 domestic opening weekend similar to JW4.

 

Kung Fu Panda opening weekend similar to Shazam 2.

 

Ghostbusters opening weekend similar to Dungeons and Dragons.

 

Godzilla Kong opening weekend similar to Creed 3. 

 

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, JimmyB said:

True. I just find it interesting how March 2024 could just be a repeat of March 2023.

 

Dune 2 domestic opening weekend similar to JW4.

 

Kung Fu Panda opening weekend similar to Shazam 2.

 

Ghostbusters opening weekend similar to Dungeons and Dragons.

 

Godzilla Kong opening weekend similar to Creed 3. 

 

I'm a little higher on KFP4 and a little lower on Godzilla Kong, but absolutely looks like it. I think with better legs Dune should get over KFP and Ghostbusters should probably get over Dragons, but it'll be close. With a similar opening Panda will double up Shazam. GvK will finish 30m below Creed to offset, plus Arthur the King won't come near Scream. I actually do think Arthur the King outgrosses Shazam.

[leoh]

3 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

$600M is low. Let’s say $75M OW that would lead to at least $200M DOM. The same DOM/OS of the first one would then lead to $750M+ WW. Yeah no Russia but the better reception will compensate that.

I am projecting it to me make between 600M and 680M ww, meaning a 50% to 70% jump at ww box office.

[TheFlatLannister]

6 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

$600M is low. Let’s say $75M OW that would lead to at least $200M DOM. The same DOM/OS of the first one would then lead to $750M+ WW. Yeah no Russia but the better reception will compensate that.

It's not going to have the same DOM/OS split as the first one

[Mr Roark]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

It's not going to have the same DOM/OS split as the first one

Because DOM will be bigger this time but lets not forget that the first one came out with restrictions all over the world with strong competition in a weakened and crowded market and there were 4K copies online thanks to Max.

I mean Wonka crossed $600M this one will be absolutely bigger.

Edited March 2 by Mr Roark

[emoviefan]

A pretty  dam good "first day"all things considered after the last few days with presales fizzing out a little. With that A CS it should do 75 at least. 80 seems like maybe too much unless today explodes and it does not drop from true friday tomorrow. The length and Monday not being a holiday makes that unlikely. 

[ThomasNicole]

15 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

$600M is low. Let’s say $75M OW that would lead to at least $200M DOM. The same DOM/OS of the first one would then lead to $750M+ WW. Yeah no Russia but the better reception will compensate that.

Agreed about DOM, but OS is tricker. 
 

The first movie had a more traditional OS release, without day and date. The pandemic certainly have some impact, but probably it did closer to it’s full potential than DOM. 
 

Growing from 300 to 550 seems a bit too much imo. Based on the numbers so far, i think 400-450M is more reasonable. 
 

But let’s see the holds, lack of competition can help.

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

Good OD 

 

Now let’s see SAT, if there’s a moment for the movie to overperform is today, presales are very strong. 
 

Could be the difference between 75 and 80M OW. But i’m happy with 75 and it’s unlikely to go under so nice. 
 

Seems good OS as well. Should be a 600M grosser WW

 

26 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Can anyone confirm is Saturday is indeed big? or just deadline’s typical exaggeration?

 

“I hear that Dune: Part Two is going to have a great Saturday. Already as of this AM, Warners has $13.5M bagged for Saturday. I understand that they’re up 30% over the pure Friday (less previews).”

Saturday definitely looks strong from what I'm seeing, but we should temper that with the same precaution as before with this movie: walkups might or might not follow the same pace as they would for other movies.

 

In D2's favor, though, is the PLF spillover effect in addition to word of mouth and a long run time that lends itself much better to Saturday (and Sunday) matinee scheduling for non-fans who didn't want to, or couldn't, spend over 3 hours in a theater for a film after work/school yesterday.

 

Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[Eric S'ennui]

Honestly, with the way legs now go for animated movies that have zero competition for months (Migration, Elemental), Kung Fu Panda 4 could open to Shazam 2 numbers, and miraculously get to 140M or something. 🤣

[ando]

Off a $20.75 true Fri, I want to believe in a $27M Saturday. But $26M seems more likely. Solid either way.  

[filmlover]

Kung Fu Panda 4 is feeling like a $25-30M opener (though should leg it out to $100M with zero direct competition for more than two months). Dune will probably be #1 again next weekend since it doesn't seem to be losing much in the way of PLF screens.

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

Honestly, with the way legs now go for animated movies that have zero competition for months (Migration, Elemental), Kung Fu Panda 4 could open to Shazam 2 numbers, and miraculously get to 140M or something. 🤣

Definitely, just needs to be decent at this point. 
 

Migration getting to 130M is insane, parents are really desperate for kids movie and weirdly there’s very few recently.

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Definitely, just needs to be decent at this point. 
 

Migration getting to 130M is insane, parents are really desperate for kids movie and weirdly there’s very few recently.

Studios tend to want either the summer weekdays or the holidays when people have time off to get the most perceived mileage that they can from the animated movies but in this year's case the lack of product is likely just as much on the strike causing a production backlog. 

 

Elio was originally supposed to be out this weekend but the production issues must've been severe for it to get pushed back 15 months.

Edited March 2 by filmlover

[Borobudur]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Definitely, just needs to be decent at this point. 
 

Migration getting to 130M is insane, parents are really desperate for kids movie and weirdly there’s very few recently.

With KP4 coming next week, I doubt Migration can do 130m but I am hopeful that it can at least cross Aquaman 2. 

[M37]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

2.1 SUN
0.05 WED
9.25 THU
20.5-20.75 FRI

[ViewerAnon]

16 hours ago, Mr Impossible said:

Let’s be honest with ourselves here. Audiences liked all of the LoTR movies more than the first Dune easily. This is not controversial and I really enjoyed the first Dune.

 

Definitely, and I don’t mean that as an insult toward DUNE. The LOTR movies were designed as crowdpleasers in a way DUNE wasn’t.

[wildphantom]

3 hours ago, JustWatching said:

Yeah it’s just nuts. The Emagine near me has 4 PLF shows and 11 standard screenings scheduled for today. As of 8:30 a.m., 3 of the 4 PLFs are already 80-90% full. The fourth, the 9:45 p.m. show ( so you don’t get out until nearly 1 a.m.) has sold 42 tickets. Of the 11 standard shows, just one has sold more than that, by one ticket. The rest are mostly in the 0-20 range.

it’ll be the same the world over. 
I’d bet you could look at any major theater chain in most countries that have PLF and see the standard screens totally sparse of crowds who are not showing up unless they can see it in PLF.  The PLF auditoriums relatively sold out days and days out. 

 

It is a massive problem. 
 

It’s all well and good saying that they’ll wait until they can get a ticket, but there’s no better time to get these people in than the hype of opening week. 
New PLF contracted event films are coming in a couple of weeks and it’ll be out of the screens people want and should be able to see it in. Tons of potential ticket buyers then not bothering. 
 

I cannot fathom why the entire industry is not ploughing capital into the theatres to reap the rewards. It is insane to me. 
 

Cinemas for decades had the luxury of having an experience you couldn’t get at home. Now, even with amazing home theatre options, the business has the luxury of PLF to dangle infront of ticket buyers. Only they don’t seem to want to capitalise on it!?!  The format is almost single handedly holding the business up, when it should just become the norm for at least two or three screens at every major multiplex. 

Edited March 2 by wildphantom

[von Kenni]

10 hours ago, von Kenni said:

Dune Walkups Tomorrow for $80M OW

 

Based on MTC1 comps when comparing Dune 1 and Dune 2 performance the walkups today were even lousier than yesterday with previews in relative turns. For previews, Dune 2 had 133% of Dune 1 walkups and today 128%. Based on Dune 1 FRI BO and ATP differences true FRI expected value is $20.5M which is aligned with the public $30-34M estimates ($12M previews + $20.5M = $32.5M).

 

I made below three scenarios for SAT actuals based on Dune 1 comps. Presales are stellar 224% of Dune 1 but if the walkups tomorrow are as lousy as today, then SAT is around $25.9M, which would be 26.6% jump from true FRI but would need just -16.9% drop in order to reach that mystical $80M OW. It would need clearly better walkups (140% of Dune 1) to reach a feasible scenario for $80M OW. If the WOM is there and the other hoped dynamics, why not, but it needs to do much better than today in any case.

 

That said, take all this with a grain of salt. Based on MTC1 Dune 1 comps THU previews should be $9.1M and based on industry reports it's somewhere between $9.5M and $10M. So if it is underperforming here too, FRI actuals will be a little bit higher and the SAT walkups don't necessarily need to be better at all or just by little to reach that $80M. Anyways, it probably won't go below $76M unless the rest of the weekend walkups are considerably worse than today and the Sunday drop is more than -28%.

 

If the true FRI is $21M (MTC1 underperforming like with previews) then similar walkups as today and with Sunday drop under 25% it would be around $80M.

 

 

 

30 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

 

Saturday definitely looks strong from what I'm seeing, but we should temper that with the same precaution as before with this movie: walkups might or might not follow the same pace as they would for other movies.

 

In D2's favor, though, is the PLF spillover effect in addition to word of mouth and a long run time that lends itself much better to Saturday (and Sunday) matinee scheduling for non-fans who didn't want to, or couldn't, spend over 3 hours in a theater for a film after work/school yesterday.

 

Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

25 minutes ago, ando said:

Off a $20.75 true Fri, I want to believe in a $27M Saturday. But $26M seems more likely. Solid either way.  

 

30% jump isn't far off. Based on the MTC1 comps above with the meh walkups it had yesterday it would give 26.6% jump. The SAT presales were very good. It just needs 10% better walkups today in relative terms

[TomThomas]

160 mln WW estimate Deadline put out is definitely not good, I hope it's gonna be in 180 range at least.

[dallas]