Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

[wildphantom]

1 minute ago, Bob Train said:

IMO they'll estimate at $83m so that they get the "bigger than Oppenheimer" headline, definitely over $80m so that they get the "biggest opener since Barbenheimer" headline.

yeah. As long as they can crow ‘Doubled Part One’s OW’ then that will be more than satisfactory for them. 

[redfirebird2008]

11 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Fantastic early Sat number. Goes to show how WOM is traveling faster and faster every year and also how much longer movies truly profit from Saturdays (and Sundays).

I don’t think WOM travels any faster now than it did 10 years ago. 

[babz06]

3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

I don’t think WOM travels any faster now than it did 10 years ago. 

I think they mean due to social media it travels faster. 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

I don’t think WOM travels any faster now than it did 10 years ago. 

 

To elaborate, what i mean is that 10 years ago (at least in my memory), the Social Media influence on a movies' WOM was not nearly as massive as today. Nowadays, if a movie truly stinks like Madam Webb or has insanely good reception (Godzilla Minus One, Dune 2, also Puss in Boots 2), to me it seems like it takes only like 2 days and the Internet is flooded with buzzing reviews about it, especially so on YouTube. Of course its completely speculative how much the GA is influenced by these online buzzes, but i would think its more influential in 2024 than in 2014 and it helps or hinders as movie faster as well.

 

I could be wrong ofc.

[MightyDargon]

As a general rule I only like to extrapolate legs when I have some inkling of what week 2 will look like. That's how you can tell a "Mutant Mayhem" run from a "Color Purple" run. I seriously doubt Dune 2 will burn all its PLF demand this week though. 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, babz06 said:

I think they mean due to social media it travels faster. 

Facebook has been around for 20 years. Twitter has been around for 15 years. I distinctly remember Twitter WOM being a big deal with Inception’s opening in 2010. The Avengers in 2012 and Jurassic World in 2015 both showed early signs of very strong WOM with better numbers than expected on their opening Saturdays. I don’t believe WOM is traveling faster right now than it did in 2015 with Jurassic World. 

[Cmasterclay]

That's definitely word of mouth kicking in, I'm seeing much more chatter about the movie today on my feeds than I was in the days leading up to release which is fairly rare for a blockbuster outside the mega leggy breakouts.

[MightyDargon]

Twitter is a rotting corpse.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Realizing my Dune club might actually stand a chance.

[babz06]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

To elaborate, what i mean is that 10 years ago (at least in my memory), the Social Media influence on a movies' WOM was not nearly as massive as today. Nowadays, if a movie truly stinks like Madam Webb or has insanely good reception (Godzilla Minus One, Dune 2, also Puss in Boots 2), to me it seems like it takes only like 2 days and the Internet is flooded with buzzing reviews about it, especially so on YouTube. Of course its completely speculative how much the GA is influenced by these online buzzes, but i would think its more influential in 2024 than in 2014 and it helps or hinders as movie faster as well.

 

I could be wrong ofc.

It’s not just that. We also have Tik Tok, Letterbox, etc just so many more social media apps that get the word out about a film almost instantly. 

[redfirebird2008]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

To elaborate, what i mean is that 10 years ago (at least in my memory), the Social Media influence on a movies' WOM was not nearly as massive as today. Nowadays, if a movie truly stinks like Madam Webb or has insanely good reception (Godzilla Minus One, Dune 2, also Puss in Boots 2), to me it seems like it takes only like 2 days and the Internet is flooded with buzzing reviews about it, especially so on YouTube. Of course its completely speculative how much the GA is influenced by these online buzzes, but i would think its more influential in 2024 than in 2014 and it helps or hinders as movie faster as well.

 

I could be wrong ofc.

 Surprising to see you say this when you’re a huge fan of Jurassic World. That movie is 9 years old and showed very early signs of great WOM with the Saturday & Sunday numbers. Same thing with Avengers in 2012. Same thing with Inception in 2010. It’s not like we are talking about the Dark Ages, lol

[HummingLemon496]

Legion Again better change his name to Jesus Legion if my club comes true 

Edited March 3 by HummingLemon496

[von Kenni]

45 minutes ago, simoimo19 said:

 

 

With that number $80M number is a certainty (95+% probability). No way that Sunday is dropping 35%. Dune 1 fell 29% but even that's not going to happen here. Part 2 was totally different beast in presales and backlogged. The Batman with similar demo and released at same time of year (by WB too) had 21% drop. Avatar 17% and Oppy 12% with closest demo to Part 2. With this kind of WOM I'd say we're going under 20% with Sunday drop.

 

Maybe I lose my cool head here but I think we're looking at $84+M (20% drop) or even $85-86M opening (17-14% drop).

 

 

PS. None of those comps above had nothing close to 40% Saturday jump. Not even 30% if I remember right.

Edited March 3 by von Kenni
PS

[Gavin Feng]

32 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Imagine if they estimated 84 and then it turns out to be 85 😭

 

why do you spoil? This thread is now ruined.

[dallas]

$29M Saturday...

 

@leoh in shambles 

[MovieMan89]

29 is pretty great, I absolutely thought his was too audience capped to not be frontloaded 

[Eric is Anxious]

 

He's so cool guysssssssssssss

[MovieMan89]

37 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

To elaborate, what i mean is that 10 years ago (at least in my memory), the Social Media influence on a movies' WOM was not nearly as massive as today. Nowadays, if a movie truly stinks like Madam Webb or has insanely good reception (Godzilla Minus One, Dune 2, also Puss in Boots 2), to me it seems like it takes only like 2 days and the Internet is flooded with buzzing reviews about it, especially so on YouTube. Of course its completely speculative how much the GA is influenced by these online buzzes, but i would think its more influential in 2024 than in 2014 and it helps or hinders as movie faster as well.

 

I could be wrong ofc.

I think social medias relevance was mostly equal 10 years ago to today for movies. Now music, that’s a whole other story thanks to TikTok (but maybe not anymore with all these labels yanking). TikTok is the big difference for movies too, but not as often as music. 

Edited March 3 by MovieMan89

[charlie Jatinder]

18 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

PS. None of those comps above had nothing close to 40% Saturday jump. Not even 30% if I remember right.

I didn't want to correct you then but MTC1 SAT PS did suggest this.

[leoh]

12 minutes ago, dallas said:

$29M Saturday...

 

@leoh in shambles 

lol

 

I’m not a Dune hater, I’m just trying to be realistic since this started with people going crazy and projecting it to make 100+ OW… 1B ww…

 

anyways, do you really think 29M on Saturday will make it go much further than 80M? Hopefully (theaters really need this money after that Jan/Feb) but tbh don’t think so… Idk we’ll find out on Monday when actuals are officially reported

Edited March 3 by leoh