Weekend estimates | 31.70M GODZILLA × KONG: TNE | 10.10M MONKEY MAN | 9.00M GHOSTBUSTERS: FE | 8.36M THE FIRST OMEN | 7.85M KFP IV | 7.20M DUNE II

[Cookson]

GxK will be pretty close to 350m worldwide with Sundays report. Where was Dune 2 at worldwide after weekend 2? 

[ando]

2 minutes ago, Cookson said:

GxK will be pretty close to 350m worldwide with Sundays report. Where was Dune 2 at worldwide after weekend 2? 

IIRC $374M?

[misterpepp]

55 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

Praying we get a 20th anniversary re-release for The Spongebob Movie. Like I'm not even joking, I would be there on the first fucking day! 🙏

Kinda happening, sorta. Some chains are including it in their summer kids movie series for its 20th. Here’s Marcus’ listing, for example.

[AniNate]

1 hour ago, emoviefan said:

It looks like it will be a fairly solid first weekend of April as long as you don't compare it to last year when Mario opened or even 2 years ago when Sonic 2 opened. The yearly comps are going to be brutal for awhile just based on the movies opening. Not much can be done. It is what it is.

 

Now that we're past March, the strike impact is definitely starting to sink in. As high quality as many upcoming films seem, reality is we are sorely missing an extra few mainstream blockbusters and we're likely gonna be in a very deep comp hole at least through late July, probably will fall behind the rolling 2022-2023 comparison sometime in May.

 

If there's anything positive to latch onto from an exhibition perspective, it does seem like studios are more stridently pivoting back towards theatrical releases now, and one major chain in Cinemark at least has managed to stabilize and even improve their finances in the past year (with some downsizing ofc).  

 

 

Edited April 6 by AniNate

[MrFanaticGuy34]

1 hour ago, Eric Atreides said:

Praying we get a 20th anniversary re-release for The Spongebob Movie. Like I'm not even joking, I would be there on the first fucking day! 🙏

Speaking of theatrical re-releases of old movies that needs to happen in a special anniversary for more money….I want another re-release of the original ”The Lion King”! 🥺🙏🏻
 

Just $32M left to a billion worldwide! 😩😵‍💫

[emoviefan]

17 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

Now that we're past March, the strike impact is definitely starting to sink in. As high quality as many upcoming films seem, reality is we are sorely missing an extra few mainstream blockbusters and we're likely gonna be in a very deep comp hole at least through late July, probably will fall behind the rolling 2022-2023 comparison sometime in May.

 

If there's anything positive to latch onto from an exhibition perspective, it does seem like studios are more stridently pivoting back towards theatrical releases now, and one major chain in Cinemark at least has managed to stabilize and even improve their finances in the past year (with some downsizing ofc).  

 

 

I don't envy the  studios at Cinema Con this week.They are really going to have their work cut out for them knowing they do not have the many  massive tent pole blockbusters they can hype this year and the ones they do like Inside Out 2, Descp Me 4 and Deadpool Wolverine are pretty presold surefire hits. 

[JimmyB]

How does this first weekend in April rank vs other first weekend's in April.

 

2024 - 85m'ish. (#1 film Gxk)

2023 - 204m. (#1 film Mario)

2022 - 75m. (#1 film Mobius)

2019 -  145m (#1 film Shazam!)

2018 - 163M (#1 film A Quiet Place)

2017 - 119m (#1 film The Boss Baby 2nd weekend)

2016 - 132m (#1 film BvS 2nd weekend)

2015 - 224m (#1 film Furious 7)

2014 - 167m (#1 film Captain America Winter Solider)

2013 - 134m (#1 film Evil Dead)

2012 -  122m (#1 film Hunger Games 3rd weekend)

2011 - 124m (#1 film Hop)

2010 -  177m (#1 film Clash of the Titans)

 

 

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

How does this first weekend in April rank vs other first weekend's in April.

 

2024 - 85m'ish. (#1 film Gxk)

2023 - 204m. (#1 film Mario)

2022 - 75m. (#1 film Mobius)

2019 -  145m (#1 film Shazam!)

2018 - 163M (#1 film A Quiet Place)

2017 - 119m (#1 film The Boss Baby 2nd weekend)

2016 - 132m (#1 film BvS 2nd weekend)

2015 - 224m (#1 film Furious 7)

2014 - 167m (#1 film Captain America Winter Solider)

2013 - 134m (#1 film Evil Dead)

2012 -  122m (#1 film Hunger Games 3rd weekend)

2011 - 124m (#1 film Hop)

2010 -  177m (#1 film Clash of the Titans)

 

 

Okay I forgot how big so many first weekend of April weekends have been with strong anticapated movies coming out. Once again proves it's the product. Monkey Man and the First Omen is not going to cut it. 

[AniNate]

The fall season has a lot more movies with blockbuster potential compared to last, it's just gonna be a grind to get there

[Cmasterclay]

The thing with Monkey Man is it felt like it had more buzz before SXSW if anything - I had two non-movie people ask me about the trailer and the views and online shares were insane. So I don't think we can chalk expectations up to SXSW hype - more online metrics hype.

[emoviefan]

I will say that I am willing to have the conversation some are having with Monkey Man right now at this time next month if the Fall Guy  only opens to like 30 million or even less.  That underperforming would be a lot bigger indicator about theatrical weaknesses than Monkey Man. I mean I got to figure Monkey Man had virtually no appeal to the ladies like at all.  

Edited April 6 by emoviefan

[AniNate]

Monkey Man is more or less playing to HSX expectations, but they are much loftier for Fall Guy right now, currently trading at $150mil / 4 weeks. I hate to put too much on an obscure TV series adaptation, but it does seem like it should have everything going for it on paper.

 

 

Edited April 6 by AniNate

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Monkey Man is more or less playing to HSX expectations, but they are much loftier for Fall Guy right now, currently trading at $150mil / 4 weeks. I hate to put too much on an obscure TV series adaptation, but it does seem like it should have everything going for it on paper.

 

 

Yeah it has everything going for it on paper. Strong reviews, The two lead actors hot off the movie marketing phenom of last year and a fairly light month of big movies leading up to it. If moviegoers shrug it off and say we can wait till it streams then yeah let's talk.

[John Marston]

 

[Flopped]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

 

 

 

Disney did irreparable damage to moviegoers' viewing habits. The general audience has lost its connection to good movies. For 16 years they were forced-fed Marvel (there is not one rewatchable movie out of all of them), garbage new Star Wars (none of them rewatchable either), and subpar animated films (even Pixar is trash now). Other studios tried to remake themselves in Disney's image. Meanwhile, Netflix serves unwatchable garbage that get clicks because they pay bad actors like Ryan Reynolds or JLo $20-30M and you don't mind that the movies are bad cuz you're watching from home. 

 

So there is now a ceiling on how much a good movie will gross because only a very small % of the population hasn't been tainted by the last 16 years. 

 

Now that Marvel is thankfully over and Disney can't seem to sell water in the desert, maybe audiences will be retrained to not only recognize but want good movies en masse again, but it will take time to undo the last decade and a half. 

 

Edited April 6 by Flopped

[Justin]

4 minutes ago, Flopped said:

 

 

Disney did irreparable damage to moviegoers' viewing habits. The general audience has lost its connection to good movies. For 16 years they were forced-fed Marvel (there is not one rewatchable movie out of all of them), garbage new Star Wars (none of them rewatchable either), and subpar animated films (even Pixar is trash now). Other studios tried to remake themselves in Disney's image. Meanwhile, Netflix serves unwatchable garbage that get clicks because they pay bad actors like Ryan Reynolds or JLo $20-30M and you don't mind that the movies are bad cuz you're watching from home. 

 

So there is now a ceiling on how much a good movie will gross because only a very small % of the population hasn't been tainted by the last 16 years. 

 

Now that Marvel is thankfully over and Disney can't seem to sell water in the desert, maybe audiences will be retrained to not only recognize but want good movies en masse, but it will take time to undo the last decade and a half. 

 

Ryan Reynolds…bad actor??

[Maggie]

What a depressing weekend.

[Grand Cine]

Not a good weekend overall but next week will be good with Cinemacon .

 

I think tomorrow we can create a new topic from Cinemacon ( expectations , speculations, announcements , trailers like a big October Movie )

[Speedorito]

35 minutes ago, Flopped said:

 

 

Disney did irreparable damage to moviegoers' viewing habits. The general audience has lost its connection to good movies. For 16 years they were forced-fed Marvel (there is not one rewatchable movie out of all of them), garbage new Star Wars (none of them rewatchable either), and subpar animated films (even Pixar is trash now). Other studios tried to remake themselves in Disney's image. Meanwhile, Netflix serves unwatchable garbage that get clicks because they pay bad actors like Ryan Reynolds or JLo $20-30M and you don't mind that the movies are bad cuz you're watching from home. 

 

So there is now a ceiling on how much a good movie will gross because only a very small % of the population hasn't been tainted by the last 16 years. 

 

Now that Marvel is thankfully over and Disney can't seem to sell water in the desert, maybe audiences will be retrained to not only recognize but want good movies en masse again, but it will take time to undo the last decade and a half. 

 

I don’t think it’s ever going to change. Video game films are coming for Hollywood now with Sonic, Mario, FNAF, Minecraft, Sims, etc. If there’s a popular game you’ll see it’s gonna get adapted soon.

 

But more importantly, Hollywood is contracting. Fox was swallowed up by Disney and Paramount is in the trenches. Studios are currently greenlighting fewer films and shows now that linear is declining and they want returns on streaming. They’re going to lean even more into safer stuff by rebuilding their reliable brands or adapting established ones over new projects.

 

On top of that, streaming is here to stay. And with streaming prices going up and password sharing crackdowns happening for every service, people will have to pay more (on top of inflation raising the prices for everything, including tickets) and want to get the most out of their services. Meaning less money towards ticket sales.

 

TLDR: don’t bet on it

[wildphantom]

37 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

I don’t think it’s ever going to change. Video game films are coming for Hollywood now with Sonic, Mario, FNAF, Minecraft, Sims, etc. If there’s a popular game you’ll see it’s gonna get adapted soon.

 

But more importantly, Hollywood is contracting. Fox was swallowed up by Disney and Paramount is in the trenches. Studios are currently greenlighting fewer films and shows now that linear is declining and they want returns on streaming. They’re going to lean even more into safer stuff by rebuilding their reliable brands or adapting established ones over new projects.

 

On top of that, streaming is here to stay. And with streaming prices going up and password sharing crackdowns happening for every service, people will have to pay more (on top of inflation raising the prices for everything, including tickets) and want to get the most out of their services. Meaning less money towards ticket sales.

 

TLDR: don’t bet on it

or they’ll drop a couple of their streaming services as having them all is too expensive. A few will survive, and cinemas will be just fine where movies can actually make money - rather than be product for services that lose money every single quarter. 
 

Times are a changing, but it’s far from doom and gloom.  Streaming has proven that movies don’t make money on there. They need cinemas. 
 

I see this year so far as being the inevitable result of the strikes. We knew we had tons of films planned for release this year moving into next year. That’s what’s panning out. I’d say we’re doing ok so far. 
 

Monkey Man and Omen’s debuts don’t prove anything.