Weekend estimates | 31.70M GODZILLA × KONG: TNE | 10.10M MONKEY MAN | 9.00M GHOSTBUSTERS: FE | 8.36M THE FIRST OMEN | 7.85M KFP IV | 7.20M DUNE II

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, narniadis said:

I mean, poor(ish) openings aside, this was a fairly solid weekend for the products in the marketplace. The week ass Friday increases set the story though overall... still not sure why they were less than 100%, especially for the family leaning flicks. UNLESS there were more schools out this past week then we realized (which could definitely be a factor.) Monday drops should be back to the nasty normals of 75-80% outside of the major adult films.

 

Except maybe this Monday - so many school systems have off for the eclipse.  Of course, the question is will folks all be doing that, or enjoying the day off?

[emoviefan]

Should be a interesting battle between Civil War and GXK for number 1 next weekend. Seems both will target 15-20 million weekends. Maybe Civil does surprise a little and hit or get close to 20 or maybe it flames out ala Monkey Man and does 10-15. Gxk was this weekend's drop just because it was coming off a holiday fueled  1st weekend and it will stabilize or has it burned through the audience who really want to see it. Should be interesting. 

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Should be a interesting battle between Civil War and GXK for number 1 next weekend. Seems both will target 15-20 million weekends. Maybe Civil does surprise a little and hit or get close to 20 or maybe it flames out ala Monkey Man and does 10-15. Gxk was this weekend's drop just because it was coming off a holiday fueled  1st weekend and it will stabilize or has it burned through the audience who really want to see it. Should be interesting. 

 

I'm thinking $10-15M is the right range for Civil War...I just don't see the potential for bigger numbers that some folks do...

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I'm thinking $10-15M is the right range for Civil War...I just don't see the potential for bigger numbers that some folks do...

Yeah I could see it. WOM will be divisive and maybe not in the way that helps the movie. 

[eero]

Hi! Do you think Dune Is getting to 700 mill WW? 

[emoviefan]

7 minutes ago, eero said:

Hi! Do you think Dune Is getting to 700 mill WW? 

yes it will. It's at 660 now and should have another 20-25 left DOM and at least that and more OS. So yeah no sweat.

[Cmasterclay]

Civil War seems to be getting tripped up by people reading way too much into the alliances of the movie and trying to map it to 2024 instead of getting what seems to be the actual point of the movie. Discourse is very, very annoying already, and I work in politics for a living. Just watch the fucking movie for what it is! It's not a documentary about contemporary political alliances from everything I read - it has a different message.

[Dominic Draper]

Monkey Man was surprising and caught me off guard.

 

I was expecting a movie with great action and not much else.

 

I walked out loving the characters, lore,story and everything that wasn't the action. And being let down by the action.

 

I'm not saying the action was bad or anything like that, but I was really shocked by how much shakey cam, quick edits and bizzare framing choices were present. It took away from the stunts instead of enhancing them.

 

The dramatic beats all worked for me and I think Dev has a great future behind the camera if he wants it. I wanted to be blown away but my thoughts are more that was a really solid first effort and I look forward to him growing and improving.

 

7/10

Edited April 7 by Dominic Draper

[narniadis]

5 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Except maybe this Monday - so many school systems have off for the eclipse.  Of course, the question is will folks all be doing that, or enjoying the day off?

Forgot about that lol. We shall see then next week  😉

Edited April 8 by narniadis

[Legion Again]

3 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Civil War seems to be getting tripped up by people reading way too much into the alliances of the movie and trying to map it to 2024 instead of getting what seems to be the actual point of the movie. Discourse is very, very annoying already, and I work in politics for a living. Just watch the fucking movie for what it is! It's not a documentary about contemporary political alliances from everything I read - it has a different message.

I agree that it’s trying to give a message beyond 2024 partisan stuff, but I think that message rings kind of hollow in light of… 2024 partisan stuff

[ringedmortality]

What kind of American are you, is a pretty sick line though

[filmlover]

Moving beyond this weekend's openers debuting on the low end of expectations, I actually think 2024 hasn't been that bad of a year so far over 1/4 the way through. The March 4 brought life to the marketplace on various levels. If the year has felt lacking so far, that can chalked up to too many titles that were always too niche in appeal to find a broad audience and a number of the ones that, on paper, should have been slam dunks fell short in the quality department and underperformed because of it (Bob Marley: One Love likely would've soared past $100M instead of struggling to get there had the movie been better). Even the numbers for something like Argylle don't look nearly as dismal as they do on first glance when you consider it received such crummy reviews. Definitely not movies that deserved to have a martyr complex applied to them.

 

Will say the year is now due for a horror breakout though, since what we've had so far either fell under the "too niche" column or probably maxed out their financial potential given their schlocky quality (Night Swim, Imaginary).

Edited April 8 by filmlover

[reddevil19]

10 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Civil War seems to be getting tripped up by people reading way too much into the alliances of the movie and trying to map it to 2024 instead of getting what seems to be the actual point of the movie. Discourse is very, very annoying already, and I work in politics for a living. Just watch the fucking movie for what it is! It's not a documentary about contemporary political alliances from everything I read - it has a different message.

I'll be honest... I'm one of the people tripped up by this, though not quite necessarily in the way you say. I think that, yes, in the context of real world politics of 2024, it's difficult not to read more into it. It's also difficult for a lot of people to get past the whole "both sides" take that Garland's been throwing out.

 

HOWEVER, that aside, my actual issue is in general with alternate history/parallel universe stuff, I NEED an explanation for why things are why they are if the movie is otherwise trying to be realistic, hard-hitting, gritty, etc. ESPECIALLY when it resembles the real world. So I need an explanation of why things are the way they are in the film and the filmmakers have said "Just because..". That simply isn't good enough for me. Not due to any political issues, but simply the way my brain refuses to engage with the premise.

Once the movie is out, if feedback I hear is different, meaning I can get over that, then I'll watch it.

I don't know if there's anyone else out there that feels like that, but that's how my brain works.

[AniNate]

7 hours ago, filmlover said:

Moving beyond this weekend's openers debuting on the low end of expectations, I actually think 2024 hasn't been that bad of a year so far over 1/4 the way through. The March 4 brought life to the marketplace on various levels. If the year has felt lacking so far, that can chalked up to too many titles that were always too niche in appeal to find a broad audience and a number of the ones that, on paper, should have been slam dunks fell short in the quality department and underperformed because of it (Bob Marley: One Love likely would've soared past $100M instead of struggling to get there had the movie been better). Even the numbers for something like Argylle don't look nearly as dismal as they do on first glance when you consider it received such crummy reviews. Definitely not movies that deserved to have a martyr complex applied to them.

 

Will say the year is now due for a horror breakout though, since what we've had so far either fell under the "too niche" column or probably maxed out their financial potential given their schlocky quality (Night Swim, Imaginary).

 

 

As far as movies hitting or exceeding expectations this year hasn't been too bad, but I'm not so concerned right now about individual movies making money as I am exhibitors staying afloat, especially with AMC seeming to be on the verge of bankruptcy. Honestly, looking ahead to the summer now I'm not sure there is any collective weekend that looks like a net positive compared to last year until Despicable Me 4 in July. This stretch could be brutal for vibes and discourse even if every movie meets their "expectations".

 

I was holding onto hope that we could at least stay ahead of 2022/2023 on a rolling year basis but it looks like we're gonna be falling way behind in the next couple months. So it is starting to sink in for me that maybe $8 billion - $9 billion really is the best we can hope for in this new post-pandemic climate and huge 2002 or 2018 kind of years are a distant memory.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 8 by AniNate

[John Marston]

https://variety.com/2024/film/news/china-box-office-the-boy-and-the-heron-five-day-opening-1235963575/

 

 

whoa! the Boy and the Heron made 73M opening week in China!

[reddevil19]

2 hours ago, AniNate said:

 

 

As far as movies hitting or exceeding expectations this year hasn't been too bad, but I'm not so concerned right now about individual movies making money as I am exhibitors staying afloat, especially with AMC seeming to be on the verge of bankruptcy. Honestly, looking ahead to the summer now I'm not sure there is any collective weekend that looks like a net positive compared to last year until Despicable Me 4 in July. This stretch could be brutal for vibes and discourse even if every movie meets their "expectations".

 

I was holding onto hope that we could at least stay ahead of 2022/2023 on a rolling year basis but it looks like we're gonna be falling way behind in the next couple months. So it is starting to sink in for me that maybe $8 billion - $9 billion really is the best we can hope for in this new post-pandemic climate and huge 2002 or 2018 kind of years are a distant memory.

 

 

 

 

To be fair, in line with my thinking that cinemas are being reserved for event, proper PLF experience movies, this year is sorely lacking in that respect, especially in the April-Sep period. March had a few, May has three potentials, but one of them is a veeeeeeery old franchise, with the newest iteration ending on a low note box office wise, one is very much dependent on last push marketing and word of mouth building. and the final one is also a very old franchise that - despite being very beloved and the last one being hailed as a MASTERPIECE, it never was a huge box office sensation (and it being a prequel won't help).

 

Bad Boys 4 and Inside Out 2 should help in June. I'm on the fence regarding Bad Boys 4. Obviously the third was quite unexpectedly big, so the lack of buzz right now for it isn't really telling me much. It could just be one of those quiet breakouts, where the fans simply didn't shout about it online and simply went to see it. Inside Out 2 still has to battle the mindset instilled by Disney in its core audience that the movie will be on D+ soon. Elemental showed signs that it's possible and this being a sequel to a beloved movie should help. As much as I hate the idea that Pixar is now basically a sequel machine, you have to admit it's the only way they ca retrain their audience to going back to theatrical exhibition. Pump out sequels to their biggest hits and have a huge theatrical window.

 

Obviously DM4 is gonna be huge, but that mid-July window seems weak AF. Twisters really should open a week earlier than it is (and even then I'm not quite optimistic about its domestic prospects). August and September seem like a disaster to me. If Deadpool and Wolverine doesn't hit well and it's dead by its third weekend, then that's gonna be painful. Alien seems like it might be good, but even then I think the ceiling for the franchise is now Prometheus, and with this being a seemingly smaller production and far less buzz around it, I'd think somewhere between Covenant and Prometheus is more likely.

 

Kraven...I mean, I guess it should be better than Madame Web and do better than that?! Maybe it surprises and becomes a new Venom, but...ugh. Really not feeling it. Beetlejuice 2 is the big question mark. If that does an Alice in Wonderland it could very much keep the entire month afloat. I've got my fingers crossed for it.

Transformers One...no idea what that's about right now, so based on the diminishing returns, I'll just go with flop for now. Being animated should help, so once we start seeing more of it, maybe I'll think better of its prospects.

 

Oct-Dec I'm not that worried about. Oct has two good anchors at each end, November has a strong backend leading into December. The one big asterisk for Christmas is Mufasa being the big dog (cat). I mean, it's Lion King related, but that was so badly received despite the box office. I have serious doubts it's going to be an Aquaman 1 level performer, let alone Star Wars or Avatar. I'd be happy with a Wonka-style result for it, but I would like another big movie in that period... Damn, how I'd love a third RDJ Sherlock movie at Christmas. Sigh...

 

 

I dunno, obviously it's not ideal... I still think that we're probably heading back to an age where distributors again start taking up exhibition, now that the legal aspect isn't a problem anymore. 

[filmlover]

August doesn't look that great on paper unless any of its high-profile releases (with Borderlands, Alien, and - uh huh sure - Kraven leading the way) end up overperforming but that's always been a "cool down" month anyway as summer starts to come to a close, schools begin to return, and the entertainment industry look towards the commencement of awards season with the festivals starting around Labor Day weekend. September actually looks pretty solid IMO. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice is obviously a major wild card that could go in a number of directions.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Borobudur]

The revised estimate from WB had GXK lower at 31.2m instead of 31.7m whereas Dune 2 goes up 200k to 7.4m 

[marveldcfox]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

The revised estimate from WB had GXK lower at 31.2m instead of 31.7m whereas Dune 2 goes up 200k to 7.4m 

Disaster for GxK.