Weekend Numbers | actuals | 27.75M THE FALL GUY | 8.72M SW: EP I - TPM | 7.59M CHALLENGERS | 6.50M TAROT

[emoviefan]

11 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I don't know...last one opened to $56M DOM?  With inflation but countered by reduced audience, I'd think $56M was doable...but after seeing the last month, I'd probably end up putting my marker down for 10-20% off that number...of somewhere around $40-$50M...which will likely disappoint a whole lotta people on this board...under $50M will be bad, and yet I can see it happening.

 

Mother's Day won't help b/c you aren't bringing mom to this movie (if anything, Fall Guy may have a decent Sunday next weekend)...

Yeah Mom's are not the audience for Apes but I mean Doctor Strange and The MOM=) opened on Mothers Day weekend two years ago and did 187 and plenty of other MCU movies have either first or second weekend on Mothers Day weekend and the MCU is pretty dude heavy in appeal. 

[AniNate]

6 hours ago, ListenHunnyUrOver said:

 

 

This just about covers every pundit talking point, yes, to the point of not really saying anything illuminating

[Pinacolada]

 

50 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Anything that flops Universal can put it on PVOD streaming after 17 days. I don't agree with that but it is what it is 

 

Fall Guy will be basically be done after the 3rd weekend.

 

I'm sure short term the 17 day window thing for Universal makes sense. They make money bc bozos who don't ever go to theaters see a brand new movie on their rental services and are like "Damn, didn't this movie just come out. Let's watch it. I feel special". There's an extra rush and demand for movies that just came out I suppose. 

 

But it's wild to me how they do not care about the longterm effects of this is going to have. Even people here ignore jt. People will eventually catch on or have already caught on. They'll hear a new movie is really good and they should go see it. 

 

"I'll just wait for it to come out on rental in like 2 weeks like The Fall Guy"

[ringedmortality]

Why are people posting Menzel lol. Guy's a total fraud. Have people even considered the reality of lowering ticket prices. How many more people will need to show up to make the difference, and then how many more people need to show up for the gross to increase? I don't get what these people think will happen, just hoards of people will show up? The public doesn't actually know what it wants, and if you give them what they think they want you're just gonna lose money.

[AniNate]

$45 mil is my head expectation for Apes, $60 mil is my heart. War decreased significantly from Dawn despite great reviews, so I'm wary of expecting a better audience turnout here and Disney presumably factored that in keeping the budget lower, but a $60 mil opening would likely mean 2024 finally has another weekend bigger than last year's comp so hoping for a breakout for an industry morale boost

[emoviefan]

Said more on the spoiler thread but I really enjoyed The Fall Guy. Is is the best action comedy in the history of action comedies. No but it does not need to be. The first half hour is a little rough but from then it cooks. I hope it has decent legs at least. 100 million is probably going to be hard  but possible if it can leg it out. Will kill on streaming eventually which is what we have been talking about.

[lorddemaxus]

6 hours ago, ListenHunnyUrOver said:

 

We don't need to one of biggest dunces in Hollywood to tell us some obvious facts.

[John Marston]

People keep talking about the prices but it’s not like people are just staying home all the time and not doing outside activities. Lack of appealing titles is the main culprit 

[AniNate]

Everyone's been expecting the first half of the year to be a slog and Fall Guy is simply further evidence of that. I do think it's the first movie this year that has truly disappointed compared to expectations. There's no larger narrative to draw out of it beyond future obscure TV adaptations being unlikely to get 9-figure budgets.

[emoviefan]

6 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Everyone's been expecting the first half of the year to be a slog and Fall Guy is simply further evidence of that. I do think it's the first movie this year that has truly disappointed compared to expectations. There's no larger narrative to draw out of it beyond future obscure TV adaptations being unlikely to get 9-figure budgets.

Honestly after seeing the movie and enjoying it I am not super depressed about the BO. It's not a movie that set's up a sequel or a series of movies so it's not like dam the franchise chances are over. It is what it is.  The TV to movie tie is so loose that does not matter either.

[excel1]

They REALLY need to do a wide scale rerelease of THE DARK KNIGHT. The millennial movie king that made Nolan into what he now is. Nobody what anyone says, its clearly the most respected comic film ever. JOKERs success was so many people going to see the sequel to Ledger's character they all ways wanted needed and never received. 

 

Make like its the 1950s and hype it on TV. Unashamedly say "You may have it on streaming, but who cares, get the f to the theater".

[excel1]

4 hours ago, Starphanluke said:

Don’t undersell The Force Awakens hype. I think nostalgia blinds a lot of people into thinking The Phantom Menace had substantially more excitement and build-up. Maybe it had the edge, but TFA was massive and was fucking everywhere. And it had an advantage over TPM… it was well-liked!

 

lol I'm not. They weren't the same. DA FORCE AWAKENS was coming off the much more "big blockbuster" prequel series. The prequels were coming off of the world changing OT. Someone else already said - everyone assumed episode 1 would crush Titanic. That is how high expectations were. DA FORCE AWAKENS hype was not in that zip code. 

[filmlover]

14 minutes ago, excel1 said:

They REALLY need to do a wide scale rerelease of THE DARK KNIGHT. The millennial movie king that made Nolan into what he now is. Nobody what anyone says, its clearly the most respected comic film ever. JOKERs success was so many people going to see the sequel to Ledger's character they all ways wanted needed and never received. 

 

Make like its the 1950s and hype it on TV. Unashamedly say "You may have it on streaming, but who cares, get the f to the theater".

Gotta wait another 4 years for the 20th anniversary for that.

[Mojoguy]

2 hours ago, Pinacolada said:

 

 

I'm sure short term the 17 day window thing for Universal makes sense. They make money bc bozos who don't ever go to theaters see a brand new movie on their rental services and are like "Damn, didn't this movie just come out. Let's watch it. I feel special". There's an extra rush and demand for movies that just came out I suppose. 

 

But it's wild to me how they do not care about the longterm effects of this is going to have. Even people here ignore jt. People will eventually catch on or have already caught on. They'll hear a new movie is really good and they should go see it. 

 

"I'll just wait for it to come out on rental in like 2 weeks like The Fall Guy"

17 day quick digital release is only for movies that make under $50M OW which applies to Fall Guy. It's a bad deal for theaters for sure.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

9 hours ago, ListenHunnyUrOver said:

 

Quote

7. A general lack of trust in critics and reviews. With so many movies being overly praised and in some rare cases being overly criticized, I think general audiences have grown increasingly wary of critics and reviewers.

THIS IS WHAT I'VE BEEN SAYING!

[SaltyPistola]

I think Star Wars is the only real winner here. Pretty weak numbers. 

[SaltyPistola]

10 hours ago, ListenHunnyUrOver said:

 

I think this stuff is silly. Not every failure or success has to be systematic of some greater issue in the industry. Audiences simply aren't interested in what they were sold and what the film is. It's that simple. We've seen films of all shapes and sizes succeed this year, we don't need to bend over backwards to make excuses or explanations for this one because it underdelivered. This isn't some original, auteur driven IP that's been done dirty by big bad Hollywood. 12 reasons? I'll give you 1. It's a mediocre product that's having a mediocre performance. 

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

I posted the Scott Menzel tweet because it covers all the issues.

[Rainy]

 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Since we are on the subject of Star Wars movies, I just need to remind that Phantom Menace’s lifetime worldwide gross so far, is at $1.041B+. So the re-release had OS numbers to add up to the gross as well.

Edited May 6 by MrFanaticGuy34