JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Catty]

^^Thanks so much. I love your analysis, very insightful. I hope JW can go as high as your projection or close to it, I love this movie.

MI5 is such a great movie as well so I'm glad it's doing well too.

I am really impressed with MI5 - going up against huge movies & holding it's own!

[The Dark Alfred]

Agree. Probably would have hit 50m if it wasn't for JW. Any other film would have been slaughtered.

[POTUS 2020]

		Est	Est	Est	Est	Est	Proj	Proj	Proj
	Wknd (m)	M (m)	T	W	Th	F	S	Su	Wknd	%Chg	Total	Proj Tot
JW	7.6	1.75	1.36	1.64	1.19	1.22	2.35	2.75	5.10	-32.9%	47.4	72.5
MI5	5.2	1.02	0.78	0.96	0.65	0.72	1.44	1.50	2.94	-43.5%	27.1	39.0
Minions	3.4	1.01	0.77	1.13	0.76	0.66	0.95	1.14	2.09	-38.5%	31.4	42.0
IO	1.5	0.43	0.34	0.56	0.35	0.30	0.43	0.51	0.94	-37.3%	28.7	33.5

[keysersoze123]

Japan has always shown it can support multiple movies in parallel. I remember back in 2010 when TS3 came against Borrower's arriety and one more big movie and all 3 were huge ( close to 10B Yuan). Plus this is Obon and can support multiple movies easily. Big question is how is MI5 doing relatively to MI4( In admissions ). if it has done similar business then its great.

[Bishop54]

 

    Est Est Est Est Est Proj Proj Proj           Wknd (m) M (m) T W Th F S Su Wknd %Chg Total Proj Tot   JW 7.6 1.75 1.36 1.64 1.19 1.22 2.35 2.75 5.10 -32.9% 47.4 72.5   MI5 5.2 1.02 0.78 0.96 0.65 0.72 1.44 1.50 2.94 -43.5% 27.1 39.0   Minions 3.4 1.01 0.77 1.13 0.76 0.66 0.95 1.14 2.09 -38.5% 31.4 42.0   IO 1.5 0.43 0.34 0.56 0.35 0.30 0.43 0.51 0.94 -37.3% 28.7 33.5  

 

JW needs to stop losing steam or $1B overseas will be off the table.

[POTUS 2020]

Japan has always shown it can support multiple movies in parallel. I remember back in 2010 when TS3 came against Borrower's arriety and one more big movie and all 3 were huge ( close to 10B Yuan). Plus this is Obon and can support multiple movies easily. Big question is how is MI5 doing relatively to MI4( In admissions ). if it has done similar business then its great.

MI4 in todays XR would be $45m. MI5 tracking $40m, could do 45m to match

[keysersoze123]

MI4 in todays XR would be $45m. MI5 tracking $40m, could do 45m to match

 

That is quite good. I wont say awesome but good.

[catlover]

JW needs to stop losing steam or $1B overseas will be off the table.

 

Losing steam? It's projected to have the best drop among Hollywood movies from a holiday-inflated weekend. How is it losing steam? JW is still on track for $1B OS. But yeah it looks like it's gonna be close.

[seduh]

JW will make $1 billon OS

[JennaJ]

JW needs to stop losing steam or $1B overseas will be off the table.

You need to stop the negativity, it's doing better than anyone had any right to hope for in Japan (just like it did pretty much everywhere else).

I remember you declaring 1B OS was dead before it even opened in Japan. So now that it's breaking out, holding well and having an awesome run, plus actually looking like it's going to make that 1B, maybe try to enjoy it a bit?

[Bishop54]

You need to stop the negativity, it's doing better than anyone had any right to hope for in Japan (just like it did pretty much everywhere else).

I remember you declaring 1B OS was dead before it even opened in Japan. So now that it's breaking out, holding well and having an awesome run, plus actually looking like it's going to make that 1B, maybe try to enjoy it a bit?

Oh I'm enjoying it but it's making me a little nervous that whenever we get numbers from M F Lawrence the final projection slips a little.

Edited August 21, 2015 by Bishop54

[TIRANOSSAUROBR]

will make 65 million in Japan, it makes 999 million international, will miss very little ..,,

[POTUS 2020]

Oh I'm enjoying it but it's making me a little nervous that whenever we get numbers from M F Lawrence the final projection slips a little.

The weekday slide was steeper than I thought. Had to lower projections a little. The entire market was this way.

JW did hold as well or better than the other 3 HLWD from M-F and better than the locals.

JW M1.75 - F1.22,  -30%

MI5 -30%

Min -35%

IO -30%

It only needs 62m for 1B OS. Dropping 50% this weekend and going forward takes it to 60m. This aint china, not happening, no need to worry. 38% drops take it to 68m, could happen. 33% drops, 72.5, likely or better. if this weekend does drop more than 33% its because of a monstrous saturday last week and does not mean it will continue at that pace.

[Bishop54]

The weekday slide was steeper than I thought. Had to lower projections a little. The entire market was this way.

JW did hold as well or better than the other 3 HLWD from M-F and better than the locals.

JW M1.75 - F1.22,  -30%

MI5 -30%

Min -35%

IO -30%

It only needs 62m for 1B OS. Dropping 50% this weekend and going forward takes it to 60m. This aint china, not happening, no need to worry. 38% drops take it to 68m, could happen. 33% drops, 72.5, likely or better. if this weekend does drop more than 33% its because of a monstrous saturday last week and does not mean it will continue at that pace.

Thank you, my mind is at ease now.

[POTUS 2020]

		Est	Est	Est	Est	Est	Proj	Proj	Proj
	Wknd (m)	M (m)	T	W	Th	F	S	Su	Wknd	%Chg	Total	Proj Tot
JW	7.6	1.75	1.36	1.64	1.19	1.22	2.35	2.75	5.10	-32.9%	47.4	72.5
MI5	5.2	1.02	0.78	0.96	0.65	0.72	1.44	1.50	2.94	-43.5%	27.1	39.0
Minions	3.4	1.01	0.77	1.13	0.76	0.66	0.95	1.14	2.09	-38.5%	31.4	42.0
IO	1.5	0.43	0.34	0.56	0.35	0.30	0.43	0.51	0.94	-37.3%	28.7	33.5

Saturday 1200pm

Last Saturday was holiday inflated.  Comparing to 2 Saturdays ago which could also be a bit askew, 10%

Today is a work day, many were off two Saturdays ago inflating MI5 and JW's midday #s, could perform better in the evening. Overall they are close to inline with Friday projections of the weekend, except for IO outperforming so far. A picture of weekend at 1400 for Minions and IO and 1900 for JW and MI5

1200 admissions at T1MUK

JW - 36%

MI5 -43%

Min -36%

IO -25%

Edited August 22, 2015 by M F Lawrence

[POTUS 2020]

1400 compared to two weeks ago. Shaping up a bit

 

JW  -30%  4.9-5.3m weekend projection

MI5 -40%  2.9-3.2m

Min -31%  2.1-2.3m

IO   -31%  0.9-1.1m

[POTUS 2020]

Shouldn't be off by more than 5% either way

		Est	Est	Est	Est	Est	Est	Proj	Proj
	Wknd (m)	M (m)	T	W	Th	F	S	Su	Wknd	%Chg	Total	Proj Tot
JW	7.6	1.75	1.36	1.64	1.19	1.22	2.24	2.73	4.97	-34.6%	47.2	72.0+
MI5	5.2	1.02	0.78	0.96	0.65	0.72	1.52	1.67	3.19	-38.7%	27.3	40.0+
Minions	3.4	1.01	0.77	1.13	0.76	0.66	0.85	1.10	1.95	-42.6%	31.3	41.0+
IO	1.5	0.43	0.34	0.56	0.35	0.30	0.37	0.48	0.85	-43.3%	28.6	32.0+

 

Not as tight as I hoped but not bad either considering last week bumped across the board. That means they only dropped an average of 18-23% per week from 2 weeks ago. The projected totals are the floor not the target IMO.

 

JW was the best hold from last Saturday, impressive considering it had such large numbers to maintain. WOM is still on.

MI5 was a close second from sat to sat.

Minions, Monster, Titan and IO in a virtual tie for 3rd for % hold

[PierreHP]

Shouldn't be off by more than 5% either way

    Est Est Est Est Est Est Proj Proj         Wknd (m) M (m) T W Th F S Su Wknd %Chg Total Proj Tot JW 7.6 1.75 1.36 1.64 1.19 1.22 2.24 2.73 4.97 -34.6% 47.2 72.0+ MI5 5.2 1.02 0.78 0.96 0.65 0.72 1.52 1.67 3.19 -38.7% 27.3 40.0+ Minions 3.4 1.01 0.77 1.13 0.76 0.66 0.85 1.10 1.95 -42.6% 31.3 41.0+ IO 1.5 0.43 0.34 0.56 0.35 0.30 0.37 0.48 0.85 -43.3% 28.6 32.0+

 

Not as tight as I hoped but not bad either considering last week bumped across the board. That means they only dropped an average of 18-23% per week from 2 weeks ago. The projected totals are the floor not the target IMO.

 

JW was the best hold from last Saturday, impressive considering it had such large numbers to maintain. WOM is still on.

MI5 was a close second from sat to sat.

Minions, Monster, Titan and IO in a virtual tie for 3rd for % hold

IO has the biggest drop.

[catlover]

IO has the biggest drop.

 

Family movies got the biggest holiday boost last week, so it's natural that they get the biggest drops this weekend. And the weekend numbers are still projections, not actuals or even estimates. So it still can change, but I believe the actuals won't be far off.

[POTUS 2020]

*1　80518　261044　838　151　*65.8%　ジュラシック・ワールド  JW
*2　54117　185595　697　150　*64.6%　ミッション：インポッシブル／ローグ・ネイション MI5
*3　39515　153614　656　146　*61.0%　ミニオンズ Minions
*4　20909　*68562　460　144　*60.8%　バケモノの子 Monster
*5　18307　*75343　489　134　*56.6%　ＢＯＲＵＴＯ－ＮＡＲＵＴＯ ＴＨＥ ＭＯＶＩＥ－
*6　17997　*61547　394　147　*63.9%　インサイド・ヘッド  IO

1900 5 chain admissions. JW still holding the strongest w/o/w

 

 

		Est	Est	Est	Est	Est	Est	Est	Est		Week
	Wknd (m)	M (m)	T	W	Th	F	S	Su	Wknd	%Chg	Total	Total	Proj Tot
JW	7.6	1.75	1.36	1.64	1.19	1.22	2.20	2.50	4.70	-38.2%	11.9	47.0	71.0
MI5	5.2	1.02	0.78	0.96	0.65	0.72	1.50	1.50	3.00	-42.3%	7.1	27.1	41.0
Minions	3.4	1.01	0.77	1.13	0.76	0.66	0.85	1.05	1.90	-44.1%	6.2	31.2	43.0
IO	1.5	0.43	0.34	0.56	0.35	0.30	0.37	0.45	0.82	-45.3%	2.8	28.6	33.0

 

Last year, next week, the good ones held flat to down -20%. That should allow all 4 of these to do at least 2x this past week's total for the rest of the run and where I put the projection. A couple of 20% holds before summer is out would increase the projection greatly