JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Usual Locations - Saturday Seating [Theaters/Showings] (43% of Market)

09/19
Seats (% change) [Theaters/Showings], Film (Week of Release)
329,679 (---) [143/1,077], Attack on Titan - Part 2: End of the World (NEW)
177,847 (---) [146/733], Ant-Man (NEW)
132,225 (---) [136/634], No Longer Heroine (NEW)
128,654 (---) [84/418], The Anthem of the Heart (NEW)
79,607 (-58%) [135/478], Bee of the Sky (Week 2)
78,161 (-41%) [139/528], Unfair: The End (Week 3)
77,927 (-61%) [138/479], Pixels (Week 2)
60,500 (-46%) [143/382], Ted 2 (Week 4)
56,169 (-49%) [141/343], Jurassic World (Week 7)
54,559 (-41%) [111/356], Kingsman: The Secret Service (Week 2)
39,366 (-36%) [138/304], S: The Last Policeman - Recovery of Our Future (Week 4)
39,180 (-79%) [94/259], San Andreas (Week 2)
33,349 (-47%) [141/243], Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation (Week 7)
27,713 (---) [18/98], Haikyu!! the Movie: Winners and Losers (NEW)
23,965 (-30%) [138/146], Minions (Week 8)
23,665 (-20%) [138/167], The Boy and the Beast (Week 11)
19,403 (-24%) [131/138], Hero 2 (Week 10)
19,045 (-41%) [138/168], Attack on Titan - Part 1 (Week 8)
17,567 (-22%) [124/129], Boruto: Naruto the Movie (Week 7)
16,859 (-42%) [63/88], Yowamushi Pedal the Movie (Week 3)
15,546 (-70%) [93/130], Girls Step (Week 2)
14,775 (-33%) [101/103], Pokemon XY: Hoopa and the Clash of Ages (Week 10)
9,658 (-52%) [65/82], Piece of Cake (Week 3)
6,336 (-36%) [42/48], St. Vincent (Week 3)
6,028 (-27%) [17/30], Aikatsu! Music Awards (Week 5)

It's a long holiday weekend this week with Monday being Respect of the Elderly Day, and this is likely to be the strongest weekend for the remainder of the year until December.

Toho's Attack on Titan - Part 2: End of the World leads a nice group of new openers.

Disney is releasing Ant-Man; Warner Bros. is opening No Longer Heroine; and Aniplex is giving The Anthem of the Heart a very wide release by their standards.

[SchumacherFTW]

I want them to hurry up and give me Attack on Titan in the UK

[CoolK]

I want them to hurry up and give me Attack on Titan in the UK

dont get ur hopes up, part-1 was a piece of s*it

[POTUS 2020]

How much more can Jurassic World earn?

$6M More. $73-74m

[Mojoguy]

Did Attack on Titan Part 2 flop? I hear the fans really HATED the first movie.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Usual Locations - Saturday Admissions (43% of Market)

09/19
51,052 (---), Attack on Titan - Part 2: End of the World (Toho) NEW
47,727 (---), No Longer Heroine (Warner Bros.) NEW
32,409 (---), Ant-Man (Disney) NEW
27,541 (---), The Anthem of the Heart (Aniplex) NEW
22,881 (-05%), Unfair: The End (Toho) Week 3
15,059 (-46%), Bee of the Sky (Shochiku) Week 2
14,568 (-58%), Pixels (Sony) Week 2
14,502 (-46%), Ted 2 (Toho-Towa) Week 4
13,350 (-45%), Kingsman: The Secret Service (Kadokawa) Week 2
10,499 (-51%), Jurassic World (Toho-Towa) Week 7
9,425 (-23%), Yowamushi Pedal the Movie (Toho Video Division) Week 4
6,604 (-50%), Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation (Paramount) Week 7
6,145 (---), Haikyu!! the Movie: Winners and Losers (Toho Video Division) NEW
5,078 (-56%), San Andreas (Warner Bros.) Week 2
4,311 (-45%), S: The Last Policeman - Recovery of Our Future (Toho) Week 4
3,696 (-38%), Minions (Toho-Towa) Week 8
2,242 (-36%), The Boy and the Beast (Toho) Week 11
2,214 (-46%), Piece of Cake (Toei) Week 3
1,814 (-52%), Boruto: Naruto the Movie (Toho) Week 7
1,600 (-50%), Attack on Titan - Part 1 (Toho) Week 8
1,151 (-50%), St. Vincent (Kino Films) Week 3
1,000+

>That's really worrisome for Attack on Titan - Part 2. If it doesn't have an incredible Sunday* performance, it's looking to open to half that of its predecessor... There were predictions suggesting that the poor reviews/WOM of the first film could hurt the second film, and that definitely appears to be the case.

These films certainly didn't produce the results Toho and its filmmakers expected in Japan, and would probably be losing a lot of money, but thankfully for them, they're being released in over 90 markets overseas due to the manga's/anime's popularity.

>Nice for No Longer Heroine. If it was playing at more locations, I'd give it a decent chance of winning the weekend in terms of admissions. All the Shojo (teenage romance) manga live-action adaptations over the past year have been performing quite well, and this one might give Warner Bros. their biggest release this year (they've had a bad 2015).

>Ant-Man is doing as expected, maybe slightly better than, and should have a similar opening as the most recent non-Avengers/Iron Man Marvel films.

>The Anthem of the Heart looks to be doing alright, but I was expecting something a little better given how wide Aniplex decided to take the film, by their standards. The number seems fine, but Aniplex has gotten these admissions, and better ones, for other films playing at far fewer locations.

>The Summer (July/August) holdovers still can't catch a break with another weekend of solid performers keeping their weekends drops fairly high.

>And it's worth mentioning that incredible hold for Unfair: The End. Its past set of weekdays were also very, very strong, so WOM is certainly spreading for it, which is interesting considering it's the third film in the series.

*Sunday is a Movix Cinemas' Discount Day (20th of every month), and with Monday being a holiday, Sunday's evening business should be stronger than normal, too, so expect Sunday to outpace Saturday by more than usual.

 

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Weekend Estimates (09/19-20)

01 (--) ¥305,000,000 ($2.55 million), 0, ¥305,000,000 ($2.55 million), Attack on Titan - Part 2: End of the World (Toho) NEW
02 (--) ¥250,000,000 ($2.09 million), 0, ¥250,000,000 ($2.09 million), No Longer Heroine (Warner Bros.) NEW
03 (--) ¥195,000,000 ($1.63 million), 0, ¥195,000,000 ($1.63 million), Ant-Man (Disney) NEW
04 (02) ¥183,000,000 ($1.53 million), -04%, ¥1,225,000,000 ($10.1 million), Unfair: The End (Toho) Week 3
05 (01) ¥119,000,000 ($996,000), -45%, ¥500,000,000 ($4.1 million), Pixels (Sony) Week 2
06 (03) ¥108,000,000 ($904,000), -41%, ¥8,500,000,000 ($69.5 million), Jurassic World (Toho-Towa) Week 7
07 (04) ¥107,000,000 ($895,000), -41%, ¥2,010,000,000 ($15.4 million), Ted 2 (Toho-Towa) Week 4
08 (05) ¥106,000,000 ($887,000), -34%, ¥415,000,000 ($3.4 million), Bee of the Sky (Shochiku) Week 2
09 (06) ¥72,000,000 ($602,000), -37%, ¥355,000,000 ($2.9 million), Kingsman: The Secret Service (Kadokawa) Week 2
10 (07) ¥54,000,000 ($452,000), -35%, ¥4,830,000,000 ($39.8 million), Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation (Paramount) Week 7
11 (09) ¥42,000,000 ($351,000), -32%, ¥4,960,000,000 ($40.8 million), Minions (Toho-Towa) Week 8
12 (10) ¥37,000,000 ($310,000), -36%, ¥760,000,000 ($6.3 million), S: The Last Policeman - Recovery of Our Future (Toho) Week 4



Holiday Weekend Estimates (09/19-21)

01 (--) ¥445,000,000 ($3.72 million), 0, ¥445,000,000 ($3.72 million), Attack on Titan - Part 2: End of the World (Toho) NEW
02 (--) ¥410,000,000 ($3.43 million), 0, ¥410,000,000 ($3.43 million), No Longer Heroine (Warner Bros.) NEW
03 (--) ¥310,000,000 ($2.59 million), 0, ¥310,000,000 ($2.59 million), Ant-Man (Disney) NEW
04 (02) ¥288,000,000 ($2.41 million), +52%, ¥1,330,000,000 ($11.0 million), Unfair: The End (Toho) Week 3
05 (01) ¥183,000,000 ($1.53,million), -15%, ¥565,000,000 ($4.6 million), Pixels (Sony) Week 2
06 (05) ¥178,000,000 ($1.49 million), +11%, ¥485,000,000 ($4.0 million), Bee of the Sky (Shochiku) Week 2
07 (03) ¥177,000,000 ($1.48 million), -03%, ¥8,570,000,000 ($70.1 million), Jurassic World (Toho-Towa) Week 7
08 (04) ¥164,000,000 ($1.37 million), -10%, ¥2,070,000,000 ($15.9 million), Ted 2 (Toho-Towa) Week 4
09 (06) ¥117,000,000 ($979,000), +02%, ¥400,000,000 ($3.3 million), Kingsman: The Secret Service (Kadokawa) Week 2
10 (07) ¥87,000,000 ($728,000), +04%, ¥4,865,000,000 ($40.1 million), Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation (Paramount) Week 7
11 (09) ¥71,000,000 ($594,000), +31%, ¥4,990,000,000 ($41.0 million), Minions (Toho-Towa) Week 8
12 (10) ¥59,000,000 ($493,000), +07%, ¥785,000,000 ($6.5 million), S: The Last Policeman - Recovery of Our Future (Toho) Week 4

[Fake]

Good opening for Ant-Man.

MI5 will finish with exactly 5B.

[The Dark Alfred]

Can MI5 beat Minions? So close to call.

[The Dark Alfred]

dp

Edited September 24, 2015 by Alfredstellar

[KATCH-2D2]

No last week actuals and no prediction/analysis for this weekend? What's up with this thread?

[Bishop54]

No last week actuals and no prediction/analysis for this weekend? What's up with this thread?

It died.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Weekend Forecast (09/26-27)

01 (01) ¥167,000,000 ($1.4 million), -49%, ¥990,000,000 ($8.3 million), Attack on Titan - Part 2: End of the World (Toho) Week 2
02 (02) ¥152,000,000 ($1.3 million), -42%, ¥1,000,000,000 ($8.4 million), No Longer Heroine (Warner Bros.) Week 2
03 (04) ¥116,000,000 ($960,000), -35%, ¥1,740,000,000 ($14.5 million), Unfair: The End (Toho) Week 4
04 (03) ¥108,000,000 ($895,000), -46%, ¥700,000,000 ($5.8 million), Ant-Man (Disney) Week 2
05 (05) ¥87,000,000 ($720,000), -38%, ¥425,000,000 ($3.5 million), The Anthem of the Heart (Aniplex) Week 2
06 (06) ¥75,000,000 ($620,000), -38%, ¥790,000,000 ($6.6 million), Pixels (Sony) Week 3
07 (09) ¥73,000,000 ($605,000), -33%, ¥8,800,000,000 ($72.0 million), Jurassic World (Toho-Towa) Week 8
08 (07) ¥70,000,000 ($580,000), -36%, ¥770,000,000 ($6.4 million), Bee of the Sky (Shochiku) Week 3
09 (08) ¥67,000,000 ($555,000), -37%, ¥2,300,000,000 ($18.9 million), Ted 2 (Toho-Towa) Week 5
10 (10) ¥51,000,000 ($602,000), -30%, ¥550,000,000 ($4.6 million), Kingsman: The Secret Service (Kadokawa) Week 3

I'm anticipating No Longer Heroine will knock off Attack on Titan - Part 2 over the weekend in admissions (only 13,000 separated them last weekend), but I don't know if it'll manage to do it in revenue due to the significant avg. ticket price differences between the two film (Titan's avg. ticket price was nearly 20% higher last weekend).

Expect most films to experience hefty weekend drops, after coming off an extended holiday weekend period that last through Wednesday this year. And since this is a post-holiday weekend, no notable films are being released, and I don't think any of the openers are going to crack the Top 10.

The Kingsman is looking at a solid weekend if pre-sales are any indication, so ~¥50 million is probably the minimum required to make the Top 10, and I don't think any of the openers are going to manage that.

The Gonin Saga film is the only wide release, but it's barely so, playing on 124 screens, and its pre-sales were very weak. I don't think it'll make the Top 10.

All the other openers are limited, however, one of them might have a fair chance of debuting in the Top 10, and that's Aria the Avvenire.

It's only playing on 11 screens, so it's at a huge disadvantage there, but it's doing very well on those screens and could sell 50%+ of its available admissions. It's also likely to have a very high avg. ticket price, as these anime films typically do, so it wouldn't need the necessary admissions to make the Top 10 in revenue. We'll see. It's probably going to debut just outside the Top 10, though, in 11/12th, which would still be very impressive.

[KATCH-2D2]

^^ So it seems like Ant Man is going to do a typical SH film number (~$10mil)... Are there any up coming Hollywood films with a chance of breaking out?

[Mojoguy]

No last week actuals and no prediction/analysis for this weekend? What's up with this thread?

 

It died.

 

Everyone is waiting for Frozen 2 to be released in Japan.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Usual Locations - Saturday Admissions (43% of Market)

35,309 (-26%), No Longer Heroine (Warner Bros.) Week 2
22,923 (-55%), Attack on Titan - Part 2: End of the World (Toho) Week 2
19,907 (-39%), Ant-Man (Disney) Week 2
18,849 (-32%), The Anthem of the Heart (Aniplex) Week 2
17,044 (-25%), Unfair: The End (Toho) Week 4
12,517 (-06%), Kingsman: The Secret Service (Kadokawa) Week 3
11,053 (---), Aria the Avvenire (Shochiku) NEW
10,789 (-28%), Bee of the Sky (Shochiku) Week 3
10,082 (-30%), Ted 2 (Toho-Towa) Week 5
9,527 (-35%), Pixels (Sony) Week 3
9,236 (-12%), Jurassic World (Toho-Towa) Week 8
5,920 (-04%), Haikyu!! the Movie: Winners and Losers (Toho Video Division) Week 2
4,575 (-31%), Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation (Paramount) Week 8
3,400 (---), I Order You (Avex Pictures) NEW
2,906 (---), Gonin Saga (Kadokawa) NEW
2,870 (-43%), San Andreas (Warner Bros.) Week 4
2,686 (-28%), Minions (Toho-Towa) Week 9
2,634 (-39%), S: The Last Policeman - Recovery of Our Future (Toho) Week 5
2,301 (---), Wake Up, Girls! (Avex Pictures) NEW
2,264 (-76%), Yowamishi Pedal the Movie (Toho Video Division) Week 5
1,749 (-21%), Piece of Cake (Toei) Week 4
1,564 (-30%), The Boy and the Beast (Toho) Week 12
1,223 (-33%), Boruto: Naruto the Movie (Toho) Week 8
1,104 (+53%), Aikatsu! Music Awards Show! (Toei) Week 6
1,000+

>No Longer Heroine easily overtook Attack on Titan - Part 2 and will win the weekend in terms of admissions, and even with a much lower avg. ticket price, the difference in admissions appears significant enough to claim the #1 spot in revenue over the weekend, too.

>Aria the Avvenire sold 59% of its available Saturday admissions, and if can do the same on Sunday, there's still the chance it crack the Top 10. An unlikely chance, especially with Kingsman (the likely #10 film) pulling off an incredible hold this weekend, but it's not impossible since ticket prices are probably crazy high.

>Jurassic World is holding very strong, and is improving upon the likelihood of outgrossing Big Hero 6 to become the highest-grossing film of the year.

Overall, the Saturday-to-Saturday drops are pretty good. Much better than I was expecting for many films. Last Sunday was a Movix Cinemas discount ticket day, so the Sunday-to-Sunday drops will likely be a bit larger than normal, but the weekend drops should come in reasonably strong for the post-holiday frame weekend.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Weekend Estimates (09/26-27)


©2015 映画「ヒロイン失格」製作委員会 ©幸田もも子／集英社

01 (02) ¥211,000,000 ($1.75 million), -20%, ¥1,050,000,000 ($8.4 million), No Longer Heroine (Warner Bros.) Week 2
02 (01) ¥147,000,000 ($1.22 million), -54%, ¥975,000,000 ($8.1 million), Attack on Titan - Part 2: End of the World (Toho) Week 2
03 (03) ¥126,000,000 ($1.04 million), -37%, ¥720,000,000 ($6.0 million), Ant-Man (Disney) Week 2
04 (04) ¥113,000,000 ($940,000), -37%, ¥1,740,000,000 ($14.5 million), Unfair: The End (Toho) Week 4
05 (05) ¥100,000,000 ($830,000), -29%, ¥440,000,000 ($3.6 million), The Anthem of the Heart (Aniplex) Week 2
06 (09) ¥76,000,000 ($630,000), -30%, ¥8,800,000,000 ($72.0 million), Jurassic World (Toho-Towa) Week 8
07 (06) ¥68,000,000 ($565,000), -44%, ¥785,000,000 ($6.6 million), Pixels (Sony) Week 3
08 (08) ¥65,000,000 ($540,000), -39%, ¥2,300,000,000 ($18.9 million), Ted 2 (Toho-Towa) Week 5
09 (07) ¥63,000,000 ($525,000), -42%, ¥765,000,000 ($6.4 million), Bee of the Sky (Shochiku) Week 3
10 (10) ¥57,000,000 ($470,000), -21%, ¥560,000,000 ($4.7 million), Kingsman: The Secret Service (Kadokawa) Week 3

>No Longer Heroine delivered a strong second weekend, following it's impressive debut and holiday weekend frame last week. Its chances of exceeding the ¥2 billion milestone are looking good, and it could make a run at American Sniper to become Warner Bros.'s biggest film of the year.

If that happens, 2015 will be the fourth-consecutive year that a local film released by Warner Bros. was their biggest film in the market: Rurouni Kenshin (2012) > Magi Madoka Magica the Movie: Rebellion (2013) > Rurouni Kenshin: Kyoto Inferno (2014) > No Longer Heroine? (2015). They're doing very well since putting more of their efforts in the release of local productions in the country after Harry Potter concluded.

>Attack on Titan - Part 2, there's nothing good to be said here. There's a very real possibility that it'll miss the ¥2 billion milestone, and gross 40%+ less than its predecessor. Its under-performance, unfortunately, hurts the Fall box office season, though thankfully most of the other Fall releases are meeting or exceeding expectations so far.

>Ant-Man is performing well, and should outgross all non-Avengers/Iron Man MCU films, though it can still outgross the first Iron Man.

>Kingsman wasn't able to capture the magic that made it a big hit in South Korea and other Asian markets, but it's having a nice little run in Japan anyway.

[catlover]

Interesting that Ant Man will be the most successful MCU movie outside of Avengers and IM, considering it's the most obscure one before the movie came out. JW will cross 9b yen, and Unfair will cross 2b, just like the previous two movies. That's impressive. Meanwhile, Attack on Titan failed miserably. Too bad because the two movies had so much potential to be huge hits.

[cremino]

Corpse

Weekend Actuals (09/26-27)


©2015 映画「ヒロイン失格」製作委員会 ©幸田もも子／集英社

01 (02) ¥233,825,500 ($1.94 million), -12%, ¥1,090,611,830 ($8.7 million), No Longer Heroine (Warner Bros.) Week 2
02 (01) ¥159,287,800 ($1.32 million), -51%, ¥1,001,176,000 ($8.3 million), Attack on Titan - Part 2: End of the World (Toho) Week 2
03 (03) ¥137,481,900 ($1.14 million), -31%, ¥746,322,900 ($6.2 million), Ant-Man (Disney) Week 2
04 (04) ¥122,764,000 ($1.02 million), -32%, ¥1,774,051,800 ($14.8 million), Unfair: The End (Toho) Week 4
05 (05) ¥108,558,350 ($900,000), -23%, ¥473,402,400 ($3.8 million), The Anthem of the Heart (Aniplex) Week 2
06 (09) ¥77,580,200 ($643,000), -29%, ¥8,841,025,100 ($72.3 million), Jurassic World (Toho-Towa) Week 8
07 (06) ¥76,374,700 ($633,000), -36%, ¥829,763,000 ($6.9 million), Pixels (Sony) Week 3
08 (08) ¥73,674,200 ($611,000), -32%, ¥2,313,827,500 ($19.1 million), Ted 2 (Toho-Towa) Week 5
09 (07) ¥71,584,000 ($594,000), -35%, ¥786,042,700 ($6.6 million), Bee of the Sky (Shochiku) Week 3
10 (10) ¥67,046,900 ($556,000), -07%, ¥620,063,300 ($5.1 million), Kingsman: The Secret Service (Kadokawa) Week 3

Everything increased over weekend estimates.

>No Longer Heroine pulls off an even more impressive hold, rising to first place, selling 196,496 tickets in its second weekend of release.

Now, even if it only manages normal weekly holds, it should exceed the ¥2 billion milestone, and is in an excellent position to outgross American Sniper to become Warner Bros.'s biggest film of the year. And as I mentioned above, if that happens, this will be the fourth-consecutive year that a local film distributed via Warner Bros. has been their top film of the year.

>Attack on Titan - Part 2, while improving on estimates, still experiences the deadly 50% second weekend drop, selling only 112,487 tickets over the weekend.

On the bright side, and it's quite dim, it did narrowly exceed the ¥1 billion milestone over the weekend. That'll keep it's chances of exceeding ¥2 billion slightly better, but it's not looking too good. Combined, the two Attack on Titan films are looking to earn barely ¥5 billion, a number that everyone involved were certainly hoping one of the titles could have grossed.

>Ant-Man cements itself as a future ¥1 billion earner, a milestone that most superhero films don't reach or struggle to reach. Marvel's tiny hero delivered one of the strongest second weekend holds in their MCU, selling an additional 96,575 tickets in its second weekend of release.

It's actually doing surprisingly well, and as apart of the MCU, should finish behind only the two Avengers films, and the Iron Man sequels. Pretty impressive feat.

>Jurassic World enters the Top 50 Highest-Grossing Films of All-Time, at #47, after its eighth weekend in release.

[The Dark Alfred]

Any updates on Mi5 and Minions?