JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[catlover]

Yup, Ted was one of the success stories of 2012 in Japan. So not strange at all it got a lot seats. I think the dubbing was actually one of the reasons it was successful. Ted 2 won't be as big though. Also, a little bit disappointed with IM5 legs. I still hope it can cross 5b yen.

[POTUS 2020]

		Est	Est	Est	Est	Est	Est	Est	Est			Week	w/o/w	9.06	Proj
	Wknd	M (m)	T	W	Th	F	S	Su	Wknd	%Chg	Total	Total	%Ch	ProjTot	Finish	xOW
Ted2						1.05	1.75	1.82	3.57		4.6	4.6		10.0	18.0	5.1
JW	4.70	0.96	0.88	1.36	0.67	0.78	1.62	1.88	3.50	-25.5%	56.2	8.2	-31.3%	62.0	73.0	10.6
MI5	3.00	0.49	0.46	0.73	0.36	0.45	0.97	0.99	1.96	-34.7%	31.0	4.5	-37.6%	33.7	38.0	7.7
Min	1.90	0.60	0.54	0.93	0.44	0.42	0.68	1.03	1.71	-10.0%	36.6	4.6	-25.5%	40.2	46.0	10.5
IO	0.82	0.26	0.22	0.47	0.18	0.15	0.25	0.34	0.59	-28.0%	31.1	1.9	-33.2%	32.2	34.0	10.3

 

Ted 2 Takes the weekend- if I got the ticket price and 5C multiplier right. It increased 4% from Saturday to Sunday, something MI5 hasn't done and I assume they are the same demo. Too early to say if thats good WOM or just the nature of the bear. I put a 5x OW projected total for Ted2 for now, most summer movies make at least that (AOU was just 4x). It could be more if WOM is ok

 

Minions held -2% today, giving it the best hold on the weekend -10%. Monster held -20% and JW is in a virtual tie for 3rd at down -25%.

Looking for Minions and JW to do at least 2x the past 7 days for the remainder of the run((33% average drop). IO and MI5 about 1.5x(38% average drop)

[KATCH-2D2]

 

    Est Est Est Est Est Est Est Est     Week w/o/w 9.06 Proj     Wknd M (m) T W Th F S Su Wknd %Chg Total Total %Ch ProjTot Finish xOW Ted2           1.05 1.75 1.82 3.57   4.6 4.6   10.0 18.0 5.1 JW 4.70 0.96 0.88 1.36 0.67 0.78 1.62 1.88 3.50 -25.5% 56.2 8.2 -31.3% 62.0 73.0 10.6 MI5 3.00 0.49 0.46 0.73 0.36 0.45 0.97 0.99 1.96 -34.7% 31.0 4.5 -37.6% 33.7 38.0 7.7 Min 1.90 0.60 0.54 0.93 0.44 0.42 0.68 1.03 1.71 -10.0% 36.6 4.6 -25.5% 40.2 46.0 10.5 IO 0.82 0.26 0.22 0.47 0.18 0.15 0.25 0.34 0.59 -28.0% 31.1 1.9 -33.2% 32.2 34.0 10.3

 

Ted 2 Takes the weekend- if I got the ticket price and 5C multiplier right. It increased 4% from Saturday to Sunday, something MI5 hasn't done and I assume they are the same demo. Too early to say if thats good WOM or just the nature of the bear. I put a 5x OW projected total for Ted2 for now, most summer movies make at least that (AOU was just 4x). It could be more if WOM is ok

 

Minions held -2% today, giving it the best hold on the weekend -10%. Monster held -20% and JW is in a virtual tie for 3rd at down -25%.

Looking for Minions and JW to do at least 2x the past 7 days for the remainder of the run((33% average drop). IO and MI5 about 1.5x(38% average drop)

 

Thanks so much for your great work.

 

It's funny how great Minions' leg has been in Japan. I thought they loved animations with more substance but what did I know...

 

So MI5 is going to make $30m less than MI4? That's quite a big decrease considering the qualities aren't that different. I know the ER play the big factor but it'd have made $45m+ with the same admissions.

 

Hope JW can still make it to $70m, I want that $1b OS!

[Bishop54]

Thanks so much for your great work.

 

It's funny how great Minions' leg has been in Japan. I thought they loved animations with more substance but what did I know...

 

So MI5 is going to make $30m less than MI4? That's quite a big decrease considering the qualities aren't that different. I know the ER play the big factor but it'd have made $45m+ with the same admissions.

 

Hope JW can still make it to $70m, I want that $1b OS!

It doesn't need $70M, it only needs in the low 60's.

[KATCH-2D2]

It doesn't need $70M, it only needs in the low 60's.

I know but I don't want it to crawl pass it, I want it to glide pass it gracefully and effortlessly..

[POTUS 2020]

I know but I don't want it to crawl pass it, I want it to glide pass it gracefully and effortlessly..

it will glide past 1B in 10 days(wed 9/9) and finish at 1.010B+

[POTUS 2020]

	8.23	Est	w/o/w	Est	Est	Est	Est	Est	Est	Est			Week	w/o/w	9.06	Proj
	Wknd	M (m)	%Ch	T	W	Th	F	S	Su	Wknd	%Chg	Total	Total	%Ch	ProjTot	Finish	xOW
Ted2							1.05	1.75	1.86	3.61		4.7	4.66		10.0	18.0	5.1
JW	4.90	0.96	-45.1%	0.88	1.36	0.67	0.78	1.67	1.92	3.59	-26.7%	56.7	8.24	-30.5%	62.2	73.0	10.6
MI5	3.00	0.49	-52.0%	0.46	0.73	0.36	0.45	0.97	0.99	1.96	-34.7%	32.2	4.45	-37.6%	35.0	38.0	7.7
Min	1.95	0.60	-40.6%	0.54	0.93	0.44	0.42	0.68	1.03	1.71	-12.3%	36.6	4.64	-25.5%	40.2	46.0	10.5
IO	0.82	0.26	-39.5%	0.22	0.47	0.18	0.15	0.25	0.34	0.59	-34.4%	31.1	1.87	-33.2%	32.2	34.0	10.3
	8.30	Est	w/o/w										Week	w/o/w	9.06	Proj
	Wknd	M (m)	%Ch	T	W	Th	F	S	Su	Wknd	%Chg	Total	Total	%Ch	ProjTot	Finish	xOW
Ted2	3.61	0.70										5.4	0.70		10.5	18.0	5.1
JW	3.59	0.66	-31.3%									57.4	0.66		63.1	74.0	10.6
MI5	3.00	0.31	-36.7%									32.5	0.31		35.2	39.0	7.7
Min	1.90	0.50	-16.7%									37.1	0.50		40.3	46.0	10.5
IO	0.82	0.18	-30.8%									31.3	0.18		32.4	34.5	10.3

Ted with a better sunday to Monday hold than JW and much better than MI5. Not bad for the average bear

Todays w/o/w drop much softer than last Monday. hopefully it gets tighter later in the week like last week.

When is school back in session? Minions could make a run at 50m if there is enough time.

[Olive]

Cume after Weekend:

JW - 7.092 Billion

Minions - 4.52 Billion

Ted 2 - 573M yen

[POTUS 2020]

Cume after Weekend:

JW - 7.092 Billion

Minions - 4.52 Billion

Ted 2 - 573M yen

according to those numbers and at 122yen to a dollar I was little short

JW 58.13, should hit 1B OS on Sunday

Minions 37.04

Ted2  4.69, almost dead on

Will adjust up  tomorrow

[Olive]

MI5 - 3.095M admissions, 4.052B yen

[POTUS 2020]

school start already? the numbers are dropping big. I thought they didn't go back until mid September

[catlover]

school start already? the numbers are dropping big. I thought they didn't go back until mid September

 

College starts in mid September or even October. School on the other hand, starts in early September.

[POTUS 2020]

	8.30	Est		w/o/w									Week	w/o/w	9.06	Proj
	Wknd	M (m)	T	%Ch	W	Th	F	S	Su	Wknd	%Chg	Total	Total	%Ch	ProjTot	Finish	xOW
Ted2	3.63	0.82	0.90									6.4	1.72		10.7	18.0	5.1
JW	3.88	0.78	0.85	-20.6%								59.8	1.63		64.6	76.0	11.0
MI5	2.16	0.37	0.55	1.9%								34.1	0.92		37.0	41.0	8.2
Min	1.78	0.53	0.26	-56.7%								37.9	0.79		40.2	45.0	10.5
IO	0.73	0.18	0.11	-56.0%								32.3	0.29		33.6	35.0	10.6

Kiddies back to school and their films are taking a hit today. Teen/adult films are holding stronger than usual. Must be getting more screens/shows

Was low with estimates. Numbers adjusted up with actuals

[Olive]

Weekend Actuals (08/29-30)


Chuck Zlotnick / Universal Pictures and Amblin Entertainment

01 (01) ¥471,608,300 ($3.88 million), -21%, ¥7,091,674,900 ($57.4 million), Jurassic World (Toho-Towa) Week 4
02 (--) ¥441,902,000 ($3.63 million), 0, ¥572,978,600 ($4.71 million), Ted 2 (Toho-Towa) DEBUT
03 (02) ¥258,900,600 ($2.13 million), -28%, ¥4,051,715,200 ($33.1 million), Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation(Paramount) Week 4
04 (03) ¥217,217,100 ($1.79 million), -09%, ¥4,522,410,000 ($37.1 million), Minions (Toho-Towa) Week 4
05 (--) ¥203,932,100 ($1.68 million), 0, ¥203,932,100 ($1.68 million), S: The Last Policeman - Recovery of Our Future(Toho) DEBUT
06 (04) ¥111,574,800 ($918,000), -17%, ¥5,396,545,900 ($43.8 million), The Boy and the Beast (Toho) Week 8
07 (06) ¥94,537,250 ($778,000), -27%, ¥2,213,850,350 ($18.0 million), Boruto: Naruto the Movie (Toho) Week 4
08 (05) ¥93,422,900 ($769,000), -31%, ¥2,879,258,100 ($23.3 million), Attack on Titan - Part 1 (Toho) Week 5
09 (07) ¥89,709,500 ($738,000), -18%, ¥3,837,120,400 ($32.0 million), Inside Out (Disney) Week 7
10 (08) ¥75,066,600 ($617,000), -29%, ¥4,375,141,600 ($35.8 million), Hero 2 (Toho) Week 7

Pretty nice weekend, especially for the films targeting families/teens as this is the last weekend of Summer Vacation, and will likely be one of the best weekends for a few months as the Fall box office season is about to begin. Although, there are enough notable releases coming up this Fall that should keep the box office somewhat interesting until winter.

>Jurassic World fends off Ted 2 to claim its fourth-consecutive week atop the box office, although it did slip to second place in terms of weekend admissions.

The dinosaurs and company sold 300,794 tickets in its fourth weekend, and surpassed 4.75 million admissions after 26 days in release. It also became the first Hollywood live-action film since Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 to reach the ¥7 billion milestone. 

Its legs have been quite strong post-Obon Festival, which most Obon openers generally can't achieve, so it's likely heading at a total of ¥9 billion (~$75 million) or so, which could allow it to dethrone Big Hero 6 (¥9.16 billion) to become the #1 film of 2015.

>Ted 2 wasn't able to take the #1 position over the weekend in terms of gross, though it did manage to win the weekend in terms of admissions.

The sequel to the 2013 breakout hit sold an impressive 307,960 tickets across 623 screens over its weekend frame - a 35% increase over its predecessor's debut. That brought its 3-day admissions to 406,225. 

It's very doubtful it'll come anywhere near the crazy legs that its predecessor had, but a debut of this caliber could net it a total of ¥3 billion (~$25 million). Ted has become the most-successful imported comedy franchise/series since Home Alone in Japan, and needless to say, it's by far the biggest R-rated comedy series.

>Two big milestones were achieved by Minions and Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation over the weekend with the former exceeding ¥4.5 billion, and the latter reaching ¥4 billion (and exceeding 3 million admissions, too).

Minions has gone on to have one of the most bizarre, and successful, box office runs of the year (or years). The fact it's actually a lock to reach the ¥5 billion (~$40 million) blockbuster milestone now is pretty incredible, which will more than double the box office totals for ANY imported non-Disney/Pixar animated film. 

>S: The Last Policeman - Recovery of Our Future got off to a mediocre start, only selling 160,143 tickets over the weekend on 317 screens.

Most domestic live-action films have been struggling in recent years, so it wasn't espected to post anything too impressive, but the number is pretty poor considering the TV drama had pretty good rating (avg. 14.2%). In the end, though, it'll be yet another ¥1 billion earner for Toho this year.

>And finally, outside of the Top 10, Yowamushi Pedal the Movie came in twelfth place in its debut weekend in limited release, playing across 80 screens.

[Olive]

[POTUS 2020]

	8.30	Est	Est	Est	w/o/w							Current	Week	w/o/w	9.06	Proj
	Wknd	M (m)	T	W	%Ch	Th	F	S	Su	Wknd	%Chg	Total	Total	%Ch	ProjTot	Finish	xOW
Ted2	3.63	0.82	0.99	0.80								7.3	2.61		11.5	20.0	5.9
JW	3.88	0.78	0.85	0.68	-59.8%							60.4	2.31		64.2	76.0	11.2
MI5	2.16	0.37	0.57	0.45	-50.0%							34.6	1.39		37.0	41.0	8.2
Min	1.78	0.53	0.26	0.19	-81.7%							38.1	0.98		39.7	44.0	10.5
IO	0.73	0.18	0.11	0.08	-85.5%							32.4	0.37		33.1	35.0	10.6

[Bishop54]

Yikes, kid movies are getting annihilated. Schools are back.

[lab276]

Good year for Hollywood unlike the last three years.

[KATCH-2D2]

Any reasons why Ted seems to have a better hold than the rest? Adult demo?

[catlover]

Just saw Attack on Titan in the theater here. Whatever makes the manga and anime great and popular, I didn't see it in the movie. Shallow and no character development whatsoever. As a movie it's also a mess. And it's so gory and gruesome, although that's maybe a good thing, making the terror felt real. No wonder it got bad legs.

Edited September 2, 2015 by catlover