JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[cannastop]

I think the Japanese audience views Dory as a kiddy movie, judging by evening sales. The same went for Zootopia at first, but it changed later on its run because of WOM for the original movie. I don't think people's perspectives on Dory are going to change.

[cannastop]

Corpse sez:

 

Quote

Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Admission Updates (Saturday)

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 5PM > 7PM > FINAL

16,656 > 29,097 > 40,117 > 54,967 > 71,578 > 108,672 > 121,878 > x139,051 - Finding Dory (NEW)
33,688 > 36,243 > 43,874 > 52,671 > 55,431 > x75,158 > x88,033 > x105,812 - High & Low: The Movie (NEW)
19,596 > 32,308 > 39,683 > 50,707 > 57,976 > x75,257 > x80,090 > x80,864 - Pokemon 19 (NEW)
x4,209 > x7,682 > 11,721 > 17,490 > 22,664 > x38,158 > x45,804 > x60,977 - Independence Day: Resurgence (WK2)
x2,948 > x5,707 > x8,300 > 12,798 > 17,359 > x27,419 > x32,505 > x37,683 - Alice Through the Looking Glass (WK3)

Finding Dory's first day comes in:

>81% ahead of Inside Out
>46% ahead of Zootopia 
>28% ahead of Big Hero 6
>11% behind Frozen
>12% behind Monsters University

All of these comparisons point toward an opening weekend around 500,000 admissions or a bit higher if Sunday comes in strong, as it's expected to, for a weekend gross of ~¥700-725 million ($7-7.2 million). Overall... while it's looking at a strong debut, it has to be a little disappointing unless it improves significantly tomorrow. Unlike all the comparisons above though, except for Inside Out, Dory is opening over a 3-day holiday weekend, so some of its weekend business could be going to Monday, making the weekend-to-weekend comparisons a little unfair.

If Finding Dory does end up below Monsters University for the weekend, and in total gross/admissions, I do believe this confirms that the Pixar brand just isn't what it used to be in the market. 

Walt Disney Animation is finding more success in the market than Pixar now, and seemed to have come in and claimed that quality imported animation slot that Pixar filled for so many years. Assuming that Finding Dory has usual Pixar legs (9-11x), then it may end up below Zootopia in the market, or on par with it, when it should have been much bigger. And it's unlikely to outgross Big Hero 6, too, and will obviously be way belowFrozen. 

Pokemon 19's first day comes in:

>16% behind Pokemon 18.
>19% behind Pokemon 17.

Pokemon continues to drop at the box office... Last year's film became the second-lowest grossing film in the series, so this year's film just might become the lowest-grossing film in the series (below the 5th film) unless its legs end up being exceptional. The Pokemon Company really needs to do something with the next generation, which begins next year, to re-energize the series.

 

[Billybob]

On 6/4/2016 at 11:39 AM, LMAbacus said:

 

 

Also, if it does indeed hit $1 billion exactly this weekend, $2.5M from Turkey and the rest of overseas and $3M from domestic gets it to $1025.5M. That's enough to surpass An Unexpected Journey's $1021.1M and gets it tied with Alice in Wonderland's $1025.5M.

 

On 6/12/2016 at 4:23 PM, LMAbacus said:

 

The second part doesn't really matter for this thread. The first part, well, it's slowly winding down its run, so that's to be expected.

 

Well, isn't that the pot calling the kettle black. Nothing like being a hypocrite there LMAbacus!! Thought you said anything other than Japan doesn't matter for this thread, yet you posted about it reaching this point now- right around Alice. Hmmmm....

[LMAbacus]

2 hours ago, Billybob said:

 

Well, isn't that the pot calling the kettle black. Nothing like being a hypocrite there LMAbacus!! Thought you said anything other than Japan doesn't matter for this thread, yet you posted about it reaching this point now- right around Alice. Hmmmm....

 

No, not really. This is your post that I responded to:

 

On 6/12/2016 at 2:12 PM, Billybob said:

Nothing on Zootopia coming up 2nd in Japan on both Saturday and Sunday, but finishing ahead of The Dark Knight for 25th place all time? 

 

You seem to think that someone ought to have posted something about it, whereas I made my post as an addendum to Zootopia's Japan numbers. I never said that you can't post international numbers, just that there's a reason why nobody had.

Edited July 16, 2016 by LMAbacus

[cannastop]

Corpse sez:

 

Quote

Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Admission Updates (Sunday)

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 5PM > 7PM > FINAL

24,720 - Finding Dory (NEW)
18,148 - Pokemon 19 (NEW)
11,258 - High & Low: The Movie (NEW)
x7,961 - Independence Day: Resurgence (WK2)
x5,537 - Alice Through the Looking Glass (WK3)

Excellent uptick over Saturday so far for Finding Dory at the start-of-day (+49%), and hopefully it can maintain that lead through the afternoon since evening shows are weaker on Sundays versus Saturdays. It's going to need a Sunday increase of at least 25/30% if it's to clear the 500,000 admission mark over the weekend; the number I'd consider the success/disappointment bar.

Pokemon is actually down from yesterday at the start-of-day (-08%), which is a bit alarming. It doesn't have night showings since 90%+ of its business comes from the morning/day, so it'll either be down slightly compared to yesterday, or about even, unless it can surprise soon. 

High & Low: The Movie is way down compared to yesterday (-67%), but that's to be expected since it was such an advance ticket driven film; it'll recover over the course of the day.

 

[Cookson]

Hoping Shin-Gojira opens well!

[Agafin]

Very good increase for Dory (40 to 50%) today. The OW will end up being very close to Frozen's (might beat it if its avg ticket price is high enough). Seems like the long weekend (3 day) will end up above 1.0 billion yen, and most likely above 1.1 billion as well.

 

With the 2 day part of the weekend being slighly deflated (as well as this having a one week gap with the typical Pixar OW frame), I can see it managing a multi in the higher end of Pixar sequels multis. 12x over a 750 million yen OW would be 9 billion yen,  basically MU/BH6 numbers. Needs to see how the rest of the week progresses first. It might go higher or lower.

[titanic2187]

18 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

WDAS has now

21 hours ago, cannastop said:

All-Time Best Multipliers (¥1 billion Earners) [1998-] 
01. 33.34 - Frozen (Mar., 2014) 
02. 30.37 - Spirited Away (July, 2001)
03. 26.99 - Princess Mononoke (July, 1997)
04. 26.13 - Avatar (Dec., 2009)
05. 23.21 - Departures (Sept., 2008) 
06. 19.96 - Les Miserabes (Dec., 2012) 
07. 16.95 - Zootopia (Apr., 2016)
08. 16.44 - The Cat Returns (July, 2002)
09. 16.15 - The Eternal Zero (Dec., 2013) 
10. 15.69 - Monsters, Inc. (Mar., 2002)
11. 15.29 - Big Hero 6 (Dec., 2014)
12. 15.25 - The Last Samurai (Dec., 2003)
13. 14.98 - Ponyo (July, 2008)
14. 14.84 - Howl's Moving Castle (Nov., 2004)
15. 14.81 - Always: Sunset on Third Street (Nov., 2005)
16. 14.25 - Confessions (June, 2010)
17. 13.96 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (July, 2003)
18. 13.83 - Thermae Romae (Apr., 2012)
19. 13.64 - Crying Out Love, in the Center of the World (May, 2004)
20. 13.09 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Dec., 2001)
21. 12.98 - Summer Wars (Aug., 2009)
22. 12.88 - Ted (Jan., 2013) 
23. 12.51 - The Wind Rises (July, 2013) 
24. 12.50 - The Phantom of the Opera (Jan., 2005)
25. 12.48 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl (Aug., 2003)
26. 12.24 - Finding Nemo (Dec., 2003)
27. 12.16 - Wolf Children (July, 2012) 

how come titanic is not in the list? it's the 2nd highest grossing film of all time in japan after all, it can't be front-loaded in japan?

 

Edited July 17, 2016 by titanic2187

[Olive]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

 

The list only counts movies after 1998.

[titanic2187]

11 minutes ago, Olive said:

The list only counts movies after 1998.

but i saw princess mooncake, it was 1997 movie

[cannastop]

54 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

but i saw princess mooncake, it was 1997 movie

I guess that's the exception. Titanic would be on the list if we knew its multiplier.

[Fullbuster]

6 hours ago, Agafin said:

Very good increase for Dory (40 to 50%) today. The OW will end up being very close to Frozen's (might beat it if its avg ticket price is high enough). Seems like the long weekend (3 day) will end up above 1.0 billion yen, and most likely above 1.1 billion as well.

 

With the 2 day part of the weekend being slighly deflated (as well as this having a one week gap with the typical Pixar OW frame), I can see it managing a multi in the higher end of Pixar sequels multis. 12x over a 750 million yen OW would be 9 billion yen,  basically MU/BH6 numbers. Needs to see how the rest of the week progresses first. It might go higher or lower.

 

I'd be fine with that I guess. Latin America will help offsetting the shortfall.

[Mojoguy]

Wait, they are still doing Pokemon movies?

[Fullbuster]

1 minute ago, Mojoguy said:

Wait, they are still doing Pokemon movies?

 

I watched Pokémon 1 to 5 and stopped after that. The first two will always be my favorites.

[cannastop]

Two-Day Weekend Sample results:

 

rank sales    avail seats shows theaters

*1　344292　1354229　4683　236　******　ファインディング・ドリー (Finding Dory)
*2　195271　*560983　2468　229　******　ＨｉＧＨ＆ＬＯＷ ＴＨＥ ＭＯＶＩＥ
*3　171784　*643592　2726　232　******　ポケモン・ザ・ムービー ＸＹ＆Ｚ ２０１６(Pokemon 2016)

 

Finding Dory: 344292*1.65*¥1325 = ¥753,000,000

 

High & Low: 195271*1.55*¥1400 = ¥423,000,000

 

Pokemon 2016: 171784*1.55*¥1290 = ¥343,000,000

 

Finding Dory recovered quite nicely from Saturday. It's not quite the gigantic smash hit I anticipated, though.

 

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-12474.html

[Mojoguy]

Those Dory numbers are fine. It should end up near Zootopia.

[cannastop]

Corpse sez:

 

Quote

Weekend Estimats (07/16-17)/2016年07月16日-2016年07月17日
01 (---) ¥800,000,000 ($7.6 million), 0, ¥800,000,000 ($7.6 million), Finding Dory (Disney) NEW
02 (---) ¥400,000,000 ($3.8 million), 0, ¥400,000,000 ($3.8 million), High & Low: The Movie (Shochiku) NEW
03 (01) ¥359,000,000 ($3.4 million), -37%, ¥1,400,00,000 ($13.6 million), Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox) WK2
04 (---) ¥330,000,000 ($3.1 million), 0, ¥330,000,000 ($3.1 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) NEW
05 (02) ¥241,000,000 ($2.3 million), -29%, ¥1,710,000,000 ($16.7 million), Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney) WK3
06 (03) ¥95,000,000 ($900,000), -32%, ¥1,110,000,000 ($10.6 million), Too Young To Die! (Toho/Asmik Ace) WK4
07 (06) ¥47,000,000 ($450,000), -34%, ¥265,000,000 ($2.5 million), Anpanman: Nanda and the Runda of the Toy Star (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) WK3
08 (05) ¥37,000,000 ($355,000), -48%, ¥2,050,000,000 ($19.4 million), Evergreen Love (Shochiku) WK7
09 (07) ¥33,000,000 ($315,000), -47%, ¥870,000,000 ($8.4 million), Sadako vs Kayako (Kadokawa) WK5
10 (08) ¥25,000,000 ($240,000), -27%, ¥90,000,000 ($870,000), Kingsglaive: Final Fantasy XV (Aniplex) WK2

Updated 3-Day Marine Day Weekend Forecast (07/16-18)/2016年07月16日-2016年07月18日

SPOILER: HIDE

01 (---) ¥1,150,000,000 ($10.9 million), 0, ¥1,150,000,000 ($10.9 million), Finding Dory (Disney) NEW
02 (---) ¥575,000,000 ($5.5 million), 0, ¥575,000,000 ($5.5 million), High & Low: The Movie (Shochiku) NEW
03 (01) ¥537,000,000 ($5.2 million), -06%, ¥1,580,000,000 ($15.3 million), Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox) WK2
04 (---) ¥500,000,000 ($4.8 million), 0, ¥500,000,000 ($4.8 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) NEW
05 (02) ¥356,000,000 ($3.4 million), +05%, ¥1,830,000,000 ($17.8 million), Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney) WK3
06 (03) ¥141,000,000 ($1.3 million), +02%, ¥1,160,000,000 ($11.0 million), Too Young To Die! (Toho/Asmik Ace) WK4
07 (06) ¥70,000,000 ($665,000), -01%, ¥290,000,000 ($2.7 million), Anpanman: Nanda and the Runda of the Toy Star (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) WK3
08 (05) ¥55,000,000 ($525,000), -24%, ¥2,065,000,000 ($19.6 million), Evergreen Love (Shochiku) WK7
09 (07) ¥48,000,000 ($460,000), -23%, ¥890,000,000 ($8.6 million), Sadako vs Kayako (Kadokawa) WK5
10 (08) ¥36,000,000 ($350,000), +01%, ¥100,000,000 ($950,000), Kingsglaive: Final Fantasy XV/b] (Aniplex) WK2

 

[Agafin]

7 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

how come titanic is not in the list? it's the 2nd highest grossing film of all time in japan after all, it can't be front-loaded in japan?

 

From an old BOM user (called tyrannyreborn):

 

Quote

 

Titanic in Japan:

(Up to)

December 23, 1997 - $4.0m (Opening Weekend)
December 31, 1997 - $11.6m (Cume)

January 13, 1998 - $27.7m (Cume)
January 16, 1998 - $28.6m (Cume)

February 2, 1998 - $41.7m (Cume)
February 3, 1998 - $4.0m (6th weekend)
February 3, 1998 - $45.7m (Cume)
February 9, 1998 - $48.1m (Cume)
February 17, 1998 - $3.1m (8th weekend)
February 17, 1998 - $61.1m (Cume)

March 2, 1998 - $66.2m (Cume)
March 3, 1998 - $2.9m (10th weekend)
March 3, 1998 - $71.0m (Cume)
March 9, 1998 - $72.6m (Cume)
March 17, 1998 - $86.0m (Cume)
March 31, 1998 - $101.4m (Cume)

April 6, 1998 - $102.7m (Cume)
April 7, 1998 - $5.6m (15th weekend)
April 7, 1998 - $108.3m (Cume)
April 14, 1998 - $3.4m (16th weekend)
April 21, 1998 - $122.8m (Cume)
April 27, 1998 - $125.0m (Cume)

May 11, 1998 - $140m (Cume)
May 12, 1998 - $2.2m (20th weekend)
May 12, 1998 - $142.2m (Cume)
May 26, 1998 - $148.3m (Cume)
May 27, 1998 - $2.2m (22nd weekend)
May 27, 1998 - $151.4m (Cume)

June 2, 1998 - $2.1m (23rd weekend)
June 2, 1998 - $155.8m (Cume)
June 8, 1998 - $157.3m (Cume)
June 9, 1998 - $2.7m (24th weekend)
June 9, 1998 - $160m (Cume)

July 7, 1998 - $170m (Cume)
July 27, 1998 - $175.1m (Cume)

August 18, 1998 - $181.9m (Cume)

September 1, 1998 - $185.3m (Cume)
September 11, 1998 - $186.9m (Cume)

October 6, 1998 - $191m (Cume)

 

 

Total Gross: $202m (per Mojo)   $219m (per variety).

 

The difference in the Total gross in US$ is due to varying ER though that total isn't really necessary to obtain the multiplier since we know the value in lc (¥26.2B). The JPY/USD ER during Titanic's OW was $1 = ¥129.7. So, its OW in lc was about ¥519m. That gives us a multiplier of 26.2/0.519 = 50.5 for Titanic. It would easily be the leggiest blockbuster (¥1 billion+) on Corpse's list but then again, we don't know how movies like Jurassic park (¥12.85B) or ET(¥13.5B) performed.

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, Agafin said:

 

From an old BOM user (called tyrannyreborn):

 

 

Total Gross: $202m (per Mojo)   $219m (per variety).

 

The difference in the Total gross in US$ is due to varying ER though that total isn't really necessary to obtain the multiplier since we know the value in lc (¥26.2B). The JPY/USD ER during Titanic's OW was $1 = ¥129.7. So, its OW in lc was about ¥519m. That gives us a multiplier of 26.2/0.519 = 50.5 for Titanic. It would easily be the leggiest blockbuster (¥1 billion+) on Corpse's list but then again, we don't know how movies like Jurassic park (¥12.85B) or ET(¥13.5B) performed.

thank you so much! too bad for titanic to be released in those bad Ex.rate days.....if it would released in $1-100 era, titanic could have $260m! nearly 60m more than what it earned

[Cynosure]

Titanic's multiplier making Frozen's look average in comparison.