JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[cannastop]

Pre-Sales for Saturday, July 23rd

 

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-12557.html

 

rank sales    avail seats shows theaters % of last week

*1　114570　445179　1522　148　******　ＯＮＥ ＰＩＥＣＥ ＦＩＬＭ ＧＯＬＤ (One Piece 2016)
*2　*20241　335911　1405　153　*52.2%　ファインディング・ドリー (Finding Dory)
*3　**9314　146924　*896　152　*62.5%　インデペンデンス・デイ：リサージェンス (Independence Day 2)
*4　**7916　*18402　*114　*19　******　アクセル・ワールド ＩＮＦＩＮＩＴＥ∞ＢＵＲＳＴ( Accel World: Infinite Burst)
*5　**5946　131985　*727　149　*27.5%　ポケモン・ザ・ムービー ＸＹ＆Ｚ ２０１６(Pokemon 2016)
*6　**5759　109540　*769　153　*65.6%　アリス・イン・ワンダーランド／時間の旅(Alice 2)
*7　**3153　130023　*776　146　**7.9%　ＨｉＧＨ＆ＬＯＷ ＴＨＥ ＭＯＶＩＥ(High & Low)
*8　**2246　*59852　*440　*91　******　ロスト・バケーション (The Shallows)

 

This is encouraging for One Piece. Detective Conan sold 94,641 tickets by this time on April 16th, and that ended up with an opening weekend gross of ¥1.2 billion.

 

It's not looking good for The Shallows, though. It's behind 10 Cloverfield Lane, and Cloverfield had a Friday debut that ate up some demand.

[Cynosure]

OP will probably be slightly more frontloaded over the weekend but average ticket price should be slightly higher too since it has some 3D/IMAX showings.

 

I'd say 1.25-1.3 billion OW.

 

edit WoKJ is back just in time.

Edited July 23, 2016 by Cynosure

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Ticket Sales [Saturday]

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 10PM > FINAL

63,854 - One Piece Film Gold

Compared to:
74,565 > 116,519 > 144,266 > 177,687 > 206,086 > 240,279 > 271,568 > 281,438 > 308,702 > 317,438 > 317,709 - Yo-Kai Watch 2
52,996 > x60,631 > x75,890 > 117,855 > 124,236 > 147,342 > 187,892 > 197,398 > 226,441 > 286,005 > 293,246 - Star Wars VII
39,622 > x55,638 > x79,473 > x99,228 > 124,143 > 156,171 > 176,298 > 194,209 > 229,193 > 285,429 > 289,656 - Detective Conan 20

Massive start for One Piece! It only trails Yo-Kai Watch 2 at the moment, which is understandable since Yo-Kai's ticket sales are predominantly in the morning/early afternoon. One Piece, however, won't slow down much throughout the day thanks to its diverse audience and will overtake Yo-Kai Watch 2 as the day progresses, and should easily maintain its lead over Star Wars VII as well.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Ticket Sales [Saturday]

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 10PM > FINAL

63,854 > x89,438 - One Piece Film Gold

Compared to:
74,565 > 116,519 > 144,266 > 177,687 > 206,086 > 240,279 > 271,568 > 281,438 > 308,702 > 317,438 > 317,709 - Yo-Kai Watch 2
52,996 > x60,631 > x75,890 > 117,855 > 124,236 > 147,342 > 187,892 > 197,398 > 226,441 > 286,005 > 293,246 - Star Wars VII
39,622 > x55,638 > x79,473 > x99,228 > 124,143 > 156,171 > 176,298 > 194,209 > 229,193 > 285,429 > 289,656 - Detective Conan 20

And here's a huge update - unless something usual happens in the afternoon/evening, then it'll definitely exceed 300,000 admissions at the usual locations for the day, and could possibly reach as high as 350,000.

If it would reach ~350,000 tickets here, that'd suggest an opening day well over 500,000 admissions (likely over 550,000) for a first day around ¥700-800 million alone.

[NoobSaibot]

1 hour ago, cremino said:

Corpse

 

Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Ticket Sales [Saturday]

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 10PM > FINAL

63,854 > x89,438 - One Piece Film Gold

Compared to:
74,565 > 116,519 > 144,266 > 177,687 > 206,086 > 240,279 > 271,568 > 281,438 > 308,702 > 317,438 > 317,709 - Yo-Kai Watch 2
52,996 > x60,631 > x75,890 > 117,855 > 124,236 > 147,342 > 187,892 > 197,398 > 226,441 > 286,005 > 293,246 - Star Wars VII
39,622 > x55,638 > x79,473 > x99,228 > 124,143 > 156,171 > 176,298 > 194,209 > 229,193 > 285,429 > 289,656 - Detective Conan 20

And here's a huge update - unless something usual happens in the afternoon/evening, then it'll definitely exceed 300,000 admissions at the usual locations for the day, and could possibly reach as high as 350,000.

If it would reach ~350,000 tickets here, that'd suggest an opening day well over 500,000 admissions (likely over 550,000) for a first day around ¥700-800 million alone.

 

That's insane. I hope it does make that much just so I can see it happen.

[Cynosure]

Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Ticket Sales [Saturday]

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 10PM > FINAL

63,854 > x89,438 > 109,249 > 128,842 > 148,074 > 177,219 - One Piece Film Gold

Compared to:
74,565 > 116,519 > 144,266 > 177,687 > 206,086 > 240,279 > 271,568 > 281,438 > 308,702 > 317,438 > 317,709 - Yo-Kai Watch 2
52,996 > x60,631 > x75,890 > 117,855 > 124,236 > 147,342 > 187,892 > 197,398 > 226,441 > 286,005 > 293,246 - Star Wars: Episode VII
39,622 > x55,638 > x79,473 > x99,228 > 124,143 > 156,171 > 176,298 > 194,209 > 229,193 > 285,429 > 289,656 - Detective Conan 20

 

Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Ticket Sales [Saturday]

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 10PM > FINAL

63,854 > x89,438 > 109,249 > 128,842 > 148,074 > 177,219 > 197,555 > 209,978 > 235,145 > 283,231 - One Piece Film Gold

Compared to:
74,565 > 116,519 > 144,266 > 177,687 > 206,086 > 240,279 > 271,568 > 281,438 > 308,702 > 317,438 > 317,709 - Yo-Kai Watch 2
52,996 > x60,631 > x75,890 > 117,855 > 124,236 > 147,342 > 187,892 > 197,398 > 226,441 > 286,005 > 293,246 - Star Wars: Episode VII
39,622 > x55,638 > x79,473 > x99,228 > 124,143 > 156,171 > 176,298 > 194,209 > 229,193 > 285,429 > 289,656 - Detective Conan 20

Well, it doesn't seem likely that it'll exceed 300,000 now, which I thought was almost a given with the early updates. It really "slowed" down between 5-7pm before picking back up again.

It does still has a couple showtimes per theater until midnight in the most urban regions and since they're late-night specials, those showings are pretty packed, so the last update should see a fair increase. It also has a few showings after midnight tonight (12:30am, 1am), and I'm not entirely sure if those will be counted as part of Saturday, or if they're actually part of Sunday.

Edited July 23, 2016 by Cynosure

[cannastop]

Corpse sez:

 

Quote

Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Ticket Sales [Saturday]

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 10PM > FINAL

63,854 > x89,438 > 109,249 > 128,842 > 148,074 > 177,219 > 197,555 > 209,978 > 235,145 > 283,231 > 286,726 - One Piece Film Gold

Compared to:
74,565 > 116,519 > 144,266 > 177,687 > 206,086 > 240,279 > 271,568 > 281,438 > 308,702 > 317,438 > 317,709 - Yo-Kai Watch 2
52,996 > x60,631 > x75,890 > 117,855 > 124,236 > 147,342 > 187,892 > 197,398 > 226,441 > 286,005 > 293,246 - Star Wars: Episode VII
39,622 > x55,638 > x79,473 > x99,228 > 124,143 > 156,171 > 176,298 > 194,209 > 229,193 > 285,429 > 289,656 - Detective Conan 20

Saturday Results:
Tickets Sold/Available Tickets (% Capacity) - Film Title [Theaters/Showings]
317,709/530,456 (59.9% capacity) - Yo-Kai Watch 2 [231/1,727]
293,246/714,702 (41.0% capacity) - Star Wars: Episode VII [236/2,789]
289,656/530,905 (54.5% capacity) - Detective Conan 20 [230/1,502]
286,726/658,842 (43.5% capacity) - One Piece Film Gold [231/2,256]

I don't think One Piece can manage a 1 million+ admission debut with this number, though it's still mightily impressive. I believe it's looking at a debut around 900,000 admissions, depending on what happens tomorrow. Sunday, which are stronger during the summer box office season (all the other films listed were December openers), could still deliver but the fanbase probably cancels that benefit out. 

Here are the debuts it's hoping to beat:

¥1.245 billion ($10.3 million) / 800,258 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) 
¥1.209 billion ($11.1 million) / 933,781 - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho)
¥1.058 billion ($8.7 million) / 974,557 - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho)

One Piece Film Gold should easily beat Star War's weekend admissions, but its weekend gross will be harder to match; while its weekend admissions could end up below Yo-Kai Watch's and Detective Conan's, but thanks to higher tickets (3D/4DX), it'll probably beat them in gross.

Supposing it achieves opening weekend of ~900,000 admissions, that'd result in a weekend gross of ¥1.2-1.4 billion ($11-13 million), depending on where its avg. ticket price ends up due to receiving a significant premium format release (3D, 4DX, etc.).

 

[Quigley]

What about Dory?

[cannastop]

11 minutes ago, Quigley said:

What about Dory?

According to this:

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-12572.html

 

It has a 35.7% drop from last Saturday. I think there will be another big bump on Sunday, as theaters were overwhelmed by One Piece fans in Japan yesterday.

 

If it has a 70% overall weekend-to-weekend drop, it could be around ¥535m for Saturday+Sunday.

Edited July 23, 2016 by cannastop

[edroger3]

Finding Dory 

 

One Piece (very estimate)

[Cynosure]

That would be a lower opening than 'Strong World' both in admissions and revenue.

[titanic2187]

54 minutes ago, edroger3 said:

Finding Dory 

 

One Piece (very estimate)

harsher drop from dory relative to toy story 3 and MU, and even inside out

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

(C)尾田栄一郎／2016「ワンピース」製作委員会

Weekend Estimates (07/23-24)/2016年07月23日-2016年07月24日
01 (---) ¥1,100,000,000 ($10.4 million), 0, ¥1,100,000,000 ($10.4 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) NEW
02 (01) ¥461,000,000 ($4.3 million), -38%, ¥2,100,000,000 ($20.0 million), Finding Dory (Disney) WK2
03 (03) ¥196,000,000 ($1.8 million), -48%, ¥2,050,000,000 ($19.6 million), Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox) WK3
04 (04) ¥136,000,000 ($1.3 million), -58%, ¥725,000,000 ($6.9 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) WK2
05 (05) ¥129,000,000 ($1.2 million), -45%, ¥2,150,000,000 ($20.8 million), Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney) WK4
06 (02) ¥128,000,000 ($1.2 million), -70%, ¥900,000,000 ($8.5 million), High & Low: The Movie (Shochiku) WK2
07 (06) ¥47,000,000 ($440,000), -52%, ¥1,275,000,000 ($12.0 million), Too Young To Die! (Toho/Asmik Ace) WK5
08 (---) ¥40,000,000 ($375,000), 0, ¥40,000,000 ($375,000), The Shallows (Sony) NEW
09 (---) ¥35,000,000 ($330,000), 0, ¥35,000,000 ($330,000), Accel World: Infinite∞Burst (Warner Bros.) NEW
10 (07) ¥27,000,000 ($250,000), -43%, ¥350,000,000 ($3.3 million), Anpanman: Nanda and the Runda of the Toy Star (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) WK4

>One Piece Film Gold is off to a huge start, delivering another uber-blockbuster opening of ¥1 billion+ for the year; the fourth in just an eighth month span. But while this opening is incredibly impressive, it is, perhaps, a little lower than anticipated. The thirteenth One Piece film, the third in the actual "Film" series, received the widest release of all-time for a domestic film (739 screens), and was given a premium format (3D, 4DX) release as well.

An opening above ¥1 billion was incredibly likely, given its two predecessors opened above the mark on far fewer screens and in 2D, but it really should have gotten closer to ¥1.5 billion considering its situation. ¥1 billion+ openers are rare, though, and some years end up with a single film open above the mark, if they have any at all, so presuming One Piece does achieve the milestone is a big deal. And even more impressive, we've now had four films achieve this feat in the past eight months, and that's an incredible feat for the box office to achieve.

>Overall, though, this weekend was "disappointing" for this time of year. The holdovers experienced abnormally poor drops, especially Finding Dory; its second weekend drop is twice as high as most other blockbuster Pixar films.

And on a possibly related note, and possible explanation for the "stunted" weekend box office: Pokemon GO launched in Japan on Friday, and considering its huge popularity, I suppose it's reasonable to assume it may have impacted the box office in some way this weekend. If next week's drops are noticeable stronger than usual, then I believe the game can be ruled as a factor this weekend.

[cannastop]

@Baumer

 

Sorry if I got your hopes up for The Shallows in Japan.

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, Cynosure said:

Corpse :

 

(C)尾田栄一郎／2016「ワンピース」製作委員会

Weekend Estimates (07/23-24)/2016年07月23日-2016年07月24日
01 (---) ¥1,100,000,000 ($10.4 million), 0, ¥1,100,000,000 ($10.4 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) NEW
02 (01) ¥461,000,000 ($4.3 million), -38%, ¥2,100,000,000 ($20.0 million), Finding Dory (Disney) WK2
03 (03) ¥196,000,000 ($1.8 million), -48%, ¥2,050,000,000 ($19.6 million), Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox) WK3
04 (04) ¥136,000,000 ($1.3 million), -58%, ¥725,000,000 ($6.9 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) WK2
05 (05) ¥129,000,000 ($1.2 million), -45%, ¥2,150,000,000 ($20.8 million), Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney) WK4
06 (02) ¥128,000,000 ($1.2 million), -70%, ¥900,000,000 ($8.5 million), High & Low: The Movie (Shochiku) WK2
07 (06) ¥47,000,000 ($440,000), -52%, ¥1,275,000,000 ($12.0 million), Too Young To Die! (Toho/Asmik Ace) WK5
08 (---) ¥40,000,000 ($375,000), 0, ¥40,000,000 ($375,000), The Shallows (Sony) NEW
09 (---) ¥35,000,000 ($330,000), 0, ¥35,000,000 ($330,000), Accel World: Infinite∞Burst (Warner Bros.) NEW
10 (07) ¥27,000,000 ($250,000), -43%, ¥350,000,000 ($3.3 million), Anpanman: Nanda and the Runda of the Toy Star (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) WK4

>One Piece Film Gold is off to a huge start, delivering another uber-blockbuster opening of ¥1 billion+ for the year; the fourth in just an eighth month span. But while this opening is incredibly impressive, it is, perhaps, a little lower than anticipated. The thirteenth One Piece film, the third in the actual "Film" series, received the widest release of all-time for a domestic film (739 screens), and was given a premium format (3D, 4DX) release as well.

An opening above ¥1 billion was incredibly likely, given its two predecessors opened above the mark on far fewer screens and in 2D, but it really should have gotten closer to ¥1.5 billion considering its situation. ¥1 billion+ openers are rare, though, and some years end up with a single film open above the mark, if they have any at all, so presuming One Piece does achieve the milestone is a big deal. And even more impressive, we've now had four films achieve this feat in the past eight months, and that's an incredible feat for the box office to achieve.

>Overall, though, this weekend was "disappointing" for this time of year. The holdovers experienced abnormally poor drops, especially Finding Dory; its second weekend drop is twice as high as most other blockbuster Pixar films.

And on a possibly related note, and possible explanation for the "stunted" weekend box office: Pokemon GO launched in Japan on Friday, and considering its huge popularity, I suppose it's reasonable to assume it may have impacted the box office in some way this weekend. If next week's drops are noticeable stronger than usual, then I believe the game can be ruled as a factor this weekend.

well, if the reason was POKEMON Go, then 58%(much bigger than others) drop of pokemon XY&Z is somewhat sarcastic....... 

[Quigley]

I'm hoping Dory rebounds next week – as in, drops less than 10% or even increases. Otherwise, this isn't going well.

[NoobSaibot]

It has to contend with Shin Gojira and The Legend of Tarzan starting on 7/29 and 7/30 respectively. The week after, it has to compete with Rudolph and Ippaiattena (8/6), another animated movie featuring talking cats. Plus, the aforementioned One Piece Gold will be in theaters for a while as well.

 

I'm pretty sure The Legend of Tarzan won't be something to worry about judging by how Pan and In the Heart of the Sea performed there, but Godzilla is a relative unknown in this case. It's been 12 years since his last motion picture. Tomorrow (7/25) there will be a premiere for Shin Gojira. The reviews will either help that film or damage it.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Top 25 Opening Weekends [Animation]
Rank - Weekend Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Release Date)

01. ¥1.629 billion ($14.0 million) / 1,484,916 [408] - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
02. ¥1.484 billion ($14.0 million) / 1,104,980 [448] - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
03. ¥1.372 billion ($16.7 million) / 1,140,081 [300] - One Piece Film Z (2012)
04. ¥1.209 billion ($11.1 million) / 933,781 [353] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016)
05. ¥1.133 billion ($14.1 million) / 771,764 [223] - Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (2012)
06. ¥1.100 billion ($10.4 million) / 825,000 [739] - One Piece Film Gold (2016) *Estimate*
07. ¥1.058 billion ($8.7 million) / 974,557 [434] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
08. ¥1.038 billion ($11.9 million) / 819,738 [190] - One Piece Film Strong World (2009)
09. ¥1.034 billion ($9.8 million) / 812,557 [481] - Ponyo (2008)
10. ¥1.010 billion ($8.9 million) / 810,000 [318] - Spirited Away (2001)
11. ¥977.3 million ($11.1 million) / 649,249 [530] - Toy Story 3 (2010)
12. ¥960.9 million ($9.8 million) / 747,451 [454] - The Wind Rises (2013)
13. ¥960.6 million ($8.1 million) / 715,727 [653] - Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (2015)
14. ¥907.4 million ($7.9 million) / 672,696 [435] - Tales from Earthsea (2006)
15. ¥898.0 million ($8.4 million) / 724,000 [654] - Finding Nemo (2003)
16. ¥895.6 million ($10.4 million) / 680,190 [447] - Arrietty (2010)
17. ¥874.8 million ($7.4 million) / 688,623 [349] - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (2015)
18. ¥847.5 million ($8.4 million) / 614,969 [661] - Monsters University (2013)
19. ¥789.3 million ($7.8 million) / 649,865 [341] - Detective Conan: Dimensional Sniper (2014)
20. ¥780.9 million ($6.5 million) / 742,978 [351] - Pokemon D&P: The Rise of Darkrai (2007)
21. ¥767.2 million ($7.6 million) / 554,991 [319] - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014)
22. ¥763.4 million ($7.5 million) / 602,347 [598] - Frozen (2014)
23. ¥751.8 million ($7.3 million) / 604,355 [689] - The Incredibles (2004)
24. ¥745.5 million ($7.1 million) / 553,066 [511] - Finding Dory (2016)
25. ¥715.0 million ($6.1 million) / 540,000 [260] - Princess Mononoke (1997)

One Piece Film Gold's likelihood of achieving a Top 10 position based on estimates results in there not being a single imported animated film occupying the Top 10 anymore.

It will also become the 34th film in Japan to debut above the ¥1 billion mark.

And the One Piece franchise will also become the first domestic film series to have three films open above ¥1 billion; the first animated film series to have three films open above ¥1 billion; and only the fourth overall franchise to have three films open above ¥1 billion as well after Harry Potter (6); Star Wars (4); Pirates of the Caribbean (3); Spider-Man (3).

 

[Mojoguy]

I really doubt Pokemon GO made that much of an impact, if people want to see a movie they can quite playing GO for 2 hours and see the movie.

Dory had such a big second weekend drop because the first weekend was so inflated because of the holidays.

[Omni]

It can't be, as Sat was already 35% behind last week. Plus, as Corpse and others suggested, it's likely that the weekend was actually deflated because some were awaiting the Monday holiday.

Also, it's not like last weekend saw super-holds.

 

Something else must have happened, heck the average drop for the top 10 is higher than 50%. In Japan, that's crazy.