JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[VinceMichaudC]

How's Pokemon doing?

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, VinceMichaudC said:

How's Pokemon doing?

Looks like it might debut with ¥450m. About half as much as Finding Dory.

[fmpro]

ID:R??? Is it going to drop big??

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, fmpro said:

ID:R??? Is it going to drop big??

Yeah, it's probably going down by around 35% this weekend. Big drop for the Japanese market.

[CelestialFairyIX]

37 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Looks like it might debut with ¥450m. About half as much as Finding Dory.

0_0 That's quite a high number considering the series has been staggering between Y350 - 390 million.  That would place the film in the Top 10 highest opening weekends for a Pokemon film out of 19 films total, come in 17% higher than last year's debut, and be enough to finally take the film towards a Y3 billion gross or above, becoming the first film in the series to do so since 2013!  However, pre-sales did start months prior to the film's release so the data may be skewed. 

 

EDIT: Pre-sales began 4 months ago I believe. 

Edited July 15, 2016 by CelestialFairyIX

[VinceMichaudC]

29 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Looks like it might debut with ¥450m. About half as much as Finding Dory.

 

If I'm not mistaken, that would be better than last year's results correct?

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, VinceMichaudC said:

 

If I'm not mistaken, that would be better than last year's results correct?

Well, I'm no expert. Maybe the presales are overstating it. I'm going with @CelestialFairyIX's judgement for under ¥400m.

Edited July 15, 2016 by cannastop

[CelestialFairyIX]

3 minutes ago, VinceMichaudC said:

 

If I'm not mistaken, that would be better than last year's results correct?

2015: ¥384.1 million ($3.1 million) / 351,592 :: Pokemon XY: Hoopa and the Clash of Ages

2014: ¥393,259,400 ($3.9 million) / 360,190 :: Pokemon XY: The Cocoon of Destruction & Diancie

2013: ¥486,293,500 ($5.0 million) / 464,839 :: Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens

 

Yes, very much so.  

 

[cannastop]

Corpse sez:

 

Quote

 Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (07/16-17/18)

Weekend Forecast (07/16-17)/2016年07月16日-2016年07月17日
01 (---) ¥750,000,000 ($7.2 million), 0, ¥750,000,000 ($7.2 million), Finding Dory (Disney) NEW
02 (---) ¥475,000,000 ($4.5 million), 0, ¥475,000,000 ($4.5 million), High & Low: The Story of S.W.O.R.D. (Shochiku) NEW
03 (---) ¥375,000,000 ($3.6 million), 0, ¥375,000,000 ($3.6 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) NEW
04 (01) ¥359,000,000 ($3.4 million), -37%, ¥1,400,00,000 ($13.6 million), Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox) WK2
05 (02) ¥284,000,000 ($2.7 million), -16%, ¥1,750,000,000 ($17.0 million), Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney) WK3
06 (03) ¥104,000,000 ($1.0 million), -25%, ¥1,120,000,000 ($10.7 million), Too Young To Die! (Toho/Asmik Ace) WK4
07 (06) ¥57,000,000 ($540,000), -20%, ¥275,000,000 ($2.6 million), Anpanman: Nanda and the Runda of the Toy Star (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) WK3
08 (05) ¥53,000,000 ($510,000), -26%, ¥2,060,000,000 ($19.5 million), Evergreen Love (Shochiku) WK7
09 (07) ¥44,000,000 ($420,000), -29%, ¥880,000,000 ($8.5 million), Sadako vs Kayako (Kadokawa) WK5
10 (08) ¥27,000,000 ($255,000), -30%, ¥1,625,000,000 ($15.4 million), 64: Part 2 (Toho) WK6

3-Day Marine Day Weekend Forecast (07/16-18)/2016年07月16日-2016年07月18日
01 (---) ¥1,100,000,000 ($10.5 million), 0, ¥1,100,000,000 ($10.5 million), Finding Dory (Disney) NEW
02 (---) ¥675,000,000 ($6.4 million), 0, ¥675,000,000 ($6.4 million), High & Low: The Story of S.W.O.R.D. (Shochiku) NEW
03 (---) ¥550,000,000 ($5.3 million), 0, ¥550,000,000 ($5.3 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) NEW
04 (01) ¥537,000,000 ($5.2 million), -06%, ¥1,580,000,000 ($15.3 million), Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox) WK2
05 (02) ¥416,000,000 ($4.0 million), +23%, ¥1,880,000,000 ($18.2 million), Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney) WK3
06 (03) ¥153,000,000 ($1.4 million), +10%, ¥1,170,000,000 ($11.1 million), Too Young To Die! (Toho/Asmik Ace) WK4
07 (06) ¥80,000,000 ($760,000), +12%, ¥300,000,000 ($2.8 million), Anpanman: Nanda and the Runda of the Toy Star (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) WK3
08 (05) ¥76,000,000 ($725,000), +06%, ¥2,085,000,000 ($19.7 million), Evergreen Love (Shochiku) WK7
09 (07) ¥63,000,000 ($600,000), +02%, ¥900,000,000 ($8.7 million), Sadako vs Kayako (Kadokawa) WK5
10 (08) ¥39,000,000 ($370,000), +01%, ¥1,640,000,000 ($15.5 million), 64: Part 2 (Toho) WK6

Alright, so we've finally reached the official Summer Kickoff Holiday Weekend.

The weekend's top opener will be Finding Dory, Pixar's sequel to the uber-blockbuster smash Finding Nemo from 2003, which is still Pixar's biggest film in Japan. So, when you consider how well Toy Story 3 performed, and how close Monsters University came to its predecessor (not to mention Disney's major winning streak), you'd think Dory would be in position to score a major opening weekend... but that might not be the case.

>Finding Dory's pre-sales, and morning/afternoon ticket sales, are strong, but they're not very strong. In fact, it's trailing Monsters University'spre-sales by ~20%. If it's skewing significantly toward a young audience, then its pre-sales aren't of any concern, but if it's drawing in the usual Disney crowd, then it's slightly alarming. 

As it stands, it's very unlikely to come near a ¥1 billion debut over the weekend frame, and will probably barely cross the milestone over the three-day holiday weekend. That'd be a great opening, no doubt about it, but it'd be below both Toy Story 3 and Monsters University, meaning it might not be capable of reaching the ¥10 billion ($100 million) uber-blockbuster milestone unless its legs come in strong. It's definitely worth noting that those two films opened one week earlier than Dory, so the pre-sales comparisons might not be exactly fair either.

We'll see how the weekend plays out before ruling this one as "disappointing" (in regards to expectations and comparisons) since pre-sales aren't always firm indicators, and holiday weekends can behave oddly at times, too.

>High & Low: The Story of S.W.O.R.D. is the final result of Japan's supergroup band Exile Tribe's multi-media project "High & Low" that consisted of a tour, a new record, a TV drama, and more. The film is having stage greetings in all 47 prefectures all weekend long, as well as numerous giveaways to attendees over the weekend. Its pre-sales are quite enormous (even higher than Finding Dory's at the usual locations), already achieving 20% sell-through before the first showings began this morning.

>Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna, the nineteenth film in the popular franchise, and final film of the XY series, trails last year's film in pre-sales by ~9% at the usual locations; so unfortunately, the series doesn't seem likely that it'll snap out of its downward spiral at the box office yet again this year.

Corpse predicts a smaller opening for Dory.

[cannastop]

I think my ¥900m 2-day prediction will come true if the sampled sales on mimorin2014 are around 200,000 on Saturday.

Edited July 16, 2016 by cannastop

[Cynosure]

Why did they not release Pokemon Go in Japan ? The frenzy might have given the movie a boost.

[Olive]

Very disappointing for Dory, OD looks like under 300M yen.

[Fullbuster]

7 minutes ago, Olive said:

Very disappointing for Dory, OD looks like under 300M yen.

Oh no o_o

Great legs can save it though.

[cannastop]

10 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

Oh no o_o

Great legs can save it though.

The multiplier from the two-day total is unlikely to be above 12x, especially considering that this is a sequel.

 

Over/under Zootopia might be in question now.

[Fullbuster]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

The multiplier from the two-day total is unlikely to be above 12x, especially considering that this is a sequel.

 

Over/under Zootopia might be in question now.

 

I see. I didn't expect that, that's not good...Let's see if Sunday significantly increases though.

[cannastop]

All-Time Best Multipliers (¥1 billion Earners) [1998-] 
01. 33.34 - Frozen (Mar., 2014) 
02. 30.37 - Spirited Away (July, 2001)
03. 26.99 - Princess Mononoke (July, 1997)
04. 26.13 - Avatar (Dec., 2009)
05. 23.21 - Departures (Sept., 2008) 
06. 19.96 - Les Miserabes (Dec., 2012) 
07. 16.95 - Zootopia (Apr., 2016)
08. 16.44 - The Cat Returns (July, 2002)
09. 16.15 - The Eternal Zero (Dec., 2013) 
10. 15.69 - Monsters, Inc. (Mar., 2002)
11. 15.29 - Big Hero 6 (Dec., 2014)
12. 15.25 - The Last Samurai (Dec., 2003)
13. 14.98 - Ponyo (July, 2008)
14. 14.84 - Howl's Moving Castle (Nov., 2004)
15. 14.81 - Always: Sunset on Third Street (Nov., 2005)
16. 14.25 - Confessions (June, 2010)
17. 13.96 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (July, 2003)
18. 13.83 - Thermae Romae (Apr., 2012)
19. 13.64 - Crying Out Love, in the Center of the World (May, 2004)
20. 13.09 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Dec., 2001)
21. 12.98 - Summer Wars (Aug., 2009)
22. 12.88 - Ted (Jan., 2013) 
23. 12.51 - The Wind Rises (July, 2013) 
24. 12.50 - The Phantom of the Opera (Jan., 2005)
25. 12.48 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl (Aug., 2003)
26. 12.24 - Finding Nemo (Dec., 2003)
27. 12.16 - Wolf Children (July, 2012) 

Edited July 16, 2016 by cannastop

[cannastop]

Finding Dory's sampled admissions for Saturday fell under 140,000. Way below my target for ¥900m.

 

139,061*1.66*¥1330 = ¥307m total for Saturday.

 

If it's lucky, it could rise around 30% on Sunday.

 

182,000*1.66*¥1330 = ¥402m for Sunday

 

Two-Day total: ¥709m

 

This puts passing Zootopia (¥7.56 billion) in question, as it would need a more than 10x multiplier. And hopes of crossing ¥10 billion are gone right now.

Edited July 16, 2016 by cannastop

[Mojoguy]

WDAS has now overtaken Pixar as a brand in Japan. How exciting.

[titanic2187]

8 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

WDAS has now overtaken Pixar as a brand in Japan. How exciting.

All thank to Frozen

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

WDAS has now overtaken Pixar as a brand in Japan. How exciting.

 

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

All thank to Frozen

 

I don't think we should ever count Pixar out. Moviemaking is a volatile business.

 

However, if the next sequels follow Finding Dory's path, it's not encouraging.