JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[NoobSaibot]

This is a nice yield for Shin Gojira before the influx of Hollywood films comes in. To think that it could make $50 million....I predicted a $30 million gross at the most.

[Cynosure]

Pokemon and One Piece's legs are horrible.

[Cookson]

Am I seeing this right? Looks like Shin Godzilla just ran away from everything else at the Saturday box office. Shin really explodes as it gets closer to night time.

 

Looks like Kamen Rider will have the best opening out of the new releases.

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, Cookson said:

Am I seeing this right? Looks like Shin Godzilla just ran away from everything else at the Saturday box office. Shin really explodes as it gets closer to night time.

 

Looks like Kamen Rider will have the best opening out of the new releases.

Looks like Shin Godzilla is falling in line with Corpse's prediction.

[Corpse]

(C)2016 TOHO CO.,LTD.

 

Weekend Estimates (08/06-07)/2016年08月06日-2016年08月07日
01 (01) ¥517,000,000 ($5.1 million), -17%, ¥2,025,000,000 ($19.6 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK2
02 (03) ¥323,000,000 ($3.1 million), -27%, ¥4,300,000,000 ($41.5 million), Finding Dory (Disney) WK4
03 (02) ¥263,000,000 ($2.5 million), -41%, ¥3,075,000,000 ($29.3 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) WK3
04 (---) ¥215,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥215,000,000 ($2.1 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) NEW
05 (---) ¥180,000,000 ($1.7 million), 0, ¥180,000,000 ($1.7 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) NEW
06 (---) ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) NEW
07 (05) ¥85,000,000 ($835,000), -31%, ¥1,350,000,000 ($12.7 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) WK4
08 (04) ¥72,000,000 ($710,000), -55%, ¥390,000,000 ($3.7 million), The Legend of Tarzan (Warner Bros.) WK2
09 (06) ¥50,000,000 ($485,000), -50%, ¥2,490,000,000 ($24.0 million), Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox) WK5
10 (08) ¥48,000,000 ($475,000), -45%, ¥2,565,000,000 ($24.7 million), Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney) WK6

 

 

>Shin Godzilla scores a remarkable second weekend hold, a sub-20% drop that should give it a sophomore frame above the ¥500 million mark.  It seems pretty clear now that the strong critical praise and audience reception, combined with the iconic status of the title character, has made this the film to see for adult/older audiences this summer.  Hideaki Anno (Evangelion) and Shinji Higuchi's reboot of the franchise is well on its way to exceeding the ¥4 billion ($40 million) mark, and could very well reach the ¥5 billion ($50 million) blockbuster milestone as well.   

 

>Finding Dory enjoys a healthy fourth weekend, even if it's unable to capitalize the excellent momentum it gained last weekend and maintained over the last set of weekdays.  The sequel to Pixar's biggest film in the market is now comfortably above the ¥4 billion mark, and based on my estimates, but continues to trail Monsters University by around 8% after four weeks in release.  If it continues along a similar trajectory as MU, it'll finish just above the ¥8 billion ($75 million) milestone.    

  

>Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie surprises a bit and manages the best debut among the weekend's openers.  And even more impressive, considering the franchise's two year downward spiral, is that this one will open notably higher than the last (+40/50%) and has a good shot at reaching the ¥1 billion ($10 million) milestone once again.

 

>Rudolph to Ippaiattena is off to a soft start, but don't count it out just yet.  Children/family films tend to have incredible legs over the summer due to school break and Obon Festival, and multipliers up to 10 or greater are fairly common this time of year.  So an estimated opening of this level can still result in a total of ¥1.5 billion ($15 million), or possibly even ¥2 billion ($20 million).  And while neither result is particularly impressive, it's a good showing for a domestic CGI film in a market that has yet to embrace the animated CGI format.      

 

>Himitsu: The Top Secret is a borderline bomb, which has to leave many at Shochiku disappointed.  The film was heavily marketed, as has been since very early this year.  Summer and Obon Festival may save it from an embarrassing sub-¥1 billion ($10 million) total, most likely, but it's barely going to finish above the milestone.  

[Cookson]

Awesome report! Shin Godzillaaaaa!!!!!

 

Curious about Obon. Does the weekday numbers usually increase or just the weekend for the festival? That starts today correct? So maybe expect good holds today(Monday)?

[FlashMaster659]

Great for Shin Gojira! Best hold in the top 10! 

[Cookson]

I'm assuming Japan has a discount on the 1st of each month? This Monday compared to last Monday(Aug 1st) a number of films arent even close.

[Jason]

5 minutes ago, Cookson said:

I'm assuming Japan has a discount on the 1st of each month? This Monday compared to last Monday(Aug 1st) a number of films arent even close.

Yep. There are also discounts on Wednesdays for women.

[Cookson]

Good. At first I was like...well that's not good for Godzilla. However it seems like normal drops coming off a discount day.

[fmpro]

When is X-Men coming out?

[NoobSaibot]

2 minutes ago, fmpro said:

When is X-Men coming out?

 

It comes out August 11th.

[Quigley]

53 minutes ago, NoobSaibot said:

 

It comes out August 11th.

 

As do TJB and SLOP. Prepare for a very entertaining bloodbath.

[YM!]

Since SLOP and TJB are coming, what drop is Dory looking at?

[cannastop]

Just now, YourMother said:

Since SLOP and TJB are coming, what drop is Dory looking at?

Pretty big. We'll know how many screens it will lose by tomorrow.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

Pretty big. We'll know how many screens it will lose by tomorrow.

Ah. Is Dory still on track for $70M?

[Corpse]

I wouldn't worry about Dory being hit too hard this weekend.  It may in fact see an increase, as could a few other films in release.  Obon Festival is the busiest week of the year, and very few films are affected by new releases unless they've been in theaters for many weeks. 

 

Look for Alice and Independence Day to see significant drops, but everything else should be pretty good. 

 

I'll have this Weekend's Actuals up in an hour or two.

Edited August 8, 2016 by Corpse

[Cookson]

15 minutes ago, Corpse said:

I wouldn't worry about Dory being hit too hard this weekend.  It may in fact see an increase, as could a few other films in release.  Obon Festival is the busiest week of the year, and very few films are affected by new releases unless they've been in theaters for many weeks. 

 

Look for Alice and Independence Day to see significant drops, but everything else should be pretty good. 

 

I'll have this Weekend's Actuals up in an hour or two.

I was wondering about Obon. Is it this entire weekend? Can films actually increase from last weekend?

[Corpse]

32 minutes ago, Cookson said:

I was wondering about Obon. Is it this entire weekend? Can films actually increase from last weekend?

 

Obon Festival is observed on the 13th-15th, but the box office begins to benefit a couple days before and a couple days after.  So, look for the 11th through the 16th will be the best days.

 

And seeing how the weekend falls on the 13th/14th this year, I expect most films to see weekend increases, or very small drops (sub-10%).  

[Corpse]

(C)2016 TOHO CO.,LTD.

 

Weekend Actuals (08/06-07)/2016年08月06日-2016年08月07日
01 (01) ¥539,905,300 ($5.29 million), -14%, ¥2,150,635,500 ($20.8 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK2
02 (03) ¥329,905,400 ($3.23 million), -26%, ¥4,299,870,000 ($41.5 million), Finding Dory (Disney) WK4
03 (02) ¥275,665,000 ($2.70 million), -38%, ¥3,097,206,100 ($29.5 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) WK3
04 (---) ¥211,044,000 ($2.07 million), 0, ¥211,044,000 ($2.07 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) NEW
05 (---) ¥187,310,500 ($1.83 million), 0, ¥187,310,500 ($1.8 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) NEW
06 (---) ¥131,000,000 ($1.28 million), 0, ¥131,000,000 ($1.3 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) NEW
07 (05) ¥86,806,200 ($851,000), -30%, ¥1,330,954,800 ($12.5 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) WK4
08 (04) ¥79,193,600 ($776,000), -51%, ¥420,169,400 ($4.0 million), The Legend of Tarzan (Warner Bros.) WK2
09 (05) ¥55,877,300 ($547,000), -39%, ¥1,484,904,000 ($14.1 million), High & Low: The Movie (Shochiku) WK4
10 (06) ¥50,372,100 ($494,000), -50%, ¥2,501,676,310 ($24.1 million), Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox) WK5

 

>Shin Godzilla lands an extraordinary second weekend hold, a sub-15% drop, delivering the best second weekend for a domestic live-action film since 2012's Umizaru: Brave Hearts.  Its second weekend is also 6% higher than Hollywood's 2014 Godzilla's opening weekend, and after two weeks, it outpaces that film by a significant 39%.

 

Hideaki Anno (Evangelion) and Shinji Higuchi's revival of the iconic franchise has been met with glowing praise from critics and audiences alike, and when a well-received film is doing this well at the box office ahead of a major holiday week... you can be sure that it's going to be making a killing over the upcoming Obon Festival - the busiest week of the year.      

 

The 29th entry in the Godzilla franchise will exceed ¥4 billion ($40 million) much sooner than expected, and is becoming increasingly more likely of exceeding the ¥5 billion ($50 million) blockbuster milestone as well.  And this is probably asking for too much, but if it can climb as high as ¥6 billion ($60 million), its admissions could very well be enough to make it the most-attended Godzilla film since 1966! 

 

>Finding Dory continues to perform well, though it hasn't quite managed to catch up to Monsters University yet after four weeks in release, still trailing it by 8%.  Pixar's long-awaited sequel has exceeded 3.4 million admissions so far, and is on course to reach the ¥8 billion ($75 million) milestone with over 6 million admissions.  

 

>Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie delivers the best debut among this weekend's opening, and snaps a 2-year downward trend that the 45-year old franchise had found itself experiencing. The 53rd theatrical release in the 45-year old franchise sold 174,438 admissions over the weekend across 301 screens, up a very impressive 41% over last Spring's release.

 

>Rudolph to Ippaiattena settles for fifth place selling 147,179 admissions over the weekend on 346 screens.  This opening is a little underwhelming, but legs this time of year for family/children films are exceedingly great, so the film will likely achieve a respectable total near ¥2 billion ($20 million).  The CGI animated film is based on the popular 1986 children's book by Hiroshi Saito.

  

>Himitsu: The Top Secret misses the Top 5, and delivers arguably the most-disappointing opening of the summer.  Based on the sci-fi manga of the same name, the heavily market live-action film only sold 96,000 admissions over the weekend on 304 screens.  Shochiku is certainly upset about this performance, and the best they can hope for is a total of ¥1 billion ($10 million) if it can crawl there.  The vast majority of domestic films cost less than ¥1 billion, so that figure is often regarded as the "financial success" mark.