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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

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1 hour ago, catlover said:

Let's say it has 7x multiplier from its 3rd weekend, which is just "normal".

:rofl:     

 

Things are going even better than I expected here. Need to see how it reacts to actual competition in July, but I’m starting to wonder about ¥12B.

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Weekend Estimates (06/22-23)
01 (01) ¥998,000,000 ($9.3 million), -09%, ¥5,425,000,000 ($50.1 million), Aladdin (Disney) WK3
02 (---) ¥290,000,000 ($2.7 million), 0, ¥370,000,000 ($3.5 million), The Fable (Toho) NEW
03 (---) ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥220,000,000 ($2.1 million), X-Men: Dark Phoenix (Fox) NEW
04 (04) ¥147,000,000 ($1.4 million), -18%, ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million), Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom (Shochiku) WK2
05 (02) ¥135,000,000 ($1.3 million), -51%, ¥685,000,000 ($6.4 million), Men in Black International (Sony) WK2
06 (03) ¥126,000,000 ($1.2 million), -41%, ¥2,465,000,000 ($22.9 million), Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Toho) WK4
07 (06) ¥x84,000,000 ($785,000), -42%, ¥2,675,000,000 ($24.5 million), The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK6
08 (---) x¥70,000,000 ($655,000), 0, ¥x70,000,000 ($655,000), Ride Your Wave (Toho) NEW
09 (07) ¥x67,000,000 ($625,000), -33%, ¥330,000,000 ($3.1 million), Rascal Does Not Dream of a Dreaming Girl (Aniplex) WK2
08 (08) ¥x55,000,000 ($515,000), -05%, ¥625,000,000 ($5.7 million), Promare (Toho) WK5
10 (05) ¥x55,000,000 ($515,000), -62%, ¥275,000,000 ($2.5 million), Girls und Panzer: Finale - Chapter 2 (Showgate) WK2


Notable Films Below Top 10:
¥x38,000,000 ($355,000), -03%, ¥6,055,000,000 ($54.8 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK9
¥x32,000,000 ($300,000), -40%, ¥5,550,000,000 ($50.0 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) WK10
¥x27,000,000 ($250,000), -41%, ¥2,925,000,000 ($26.8 million), Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho) WK8
¥x22,000,000 ($205,000), -40%, ¥9,025,000,000 ($82.4 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK11


>Aladdin fell harder in its third weekend than in its second weekend, unsurprisingly since third weekend declines are typically bigger than second weekend drops... However, it still managed a single-digit hold based on estimates and possibly achieved a third weekend above ¥1 billion. No big deal, right? ;) If it does come in above ¥1 billion tomorrow, it'll be only the sixth film ever record to have accomplish this feat. Its cumulative total is running a bit behind Alice in Wonderland and Beauty and the Beast due to lack of holiday support, but its weekends have been par/better than theirs so far. A total above ¥10 billion ($90 million+) remains likely.

>The Fable came in higher than expected, and a debut close to ¥300 million certainly isn't too shabby for this time of year. It should be good for ¥1.5 billion+ ($15 million).

>X-Men: Dark Phoenix bombed to no one's surprise, more or less matching the debut of its predecessor. It will be very frontloaded as well, so only expect a finish around ¥600/700 million ($5/6 million) or so.

>Ride Your Wave debuted this weekend, and I forgot to include in my weekend forecast. Unfortunately, it failed to get off the ground despite a wide release from Toho. 

>And lastly, once again, take all the numbers for the many limited/near-limited anime film releases as very, very rough estimates. Only Girls und Panzer behaved as its weekdays and weekend pre-sales suggested, but actuals can still be way off from estimates for all of them.
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Biggest Third Weekends/Three Week Totals (2000-):

¥1.205 billion, -11%, ¥6.73 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥1.196 billion, -15%, ¥6.67 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥1.134 billion, -02%, ¥6.29 billion - Your Name. (2016)
¥1.078 billion, +05%, ¥5.89 billion - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥1.012 billion, -16%, ¥6.78 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥998.9 million, -21%, ¥5.86 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥998.0 million, -09%, ¥5.43 billion - Aladdin (2019) *Estimate*
¥935.7 million, -20%, ¥6.13 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥893.1 million, -20%, ¥6.69 billion - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥890.0 million, -09%, ¥7.22 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
¥881.2 million, +01%, ¥5.28 billion - Frozen (2014) 
¥848.1 million, -22%, ¥4.98 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥826.7 million, +14%, ¥6.40 billion - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
¥799.6 million, -24%, ¥4.86 billion - Rookies (2009)
¥776.5 million, -05%, ¥5.26 billion - Ponyo (2008)
¥772.9 million, -30%, ¥6.37 billion - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥719.7 million, -23%, ¥5.95 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥710.3 million, -13%, ¥4.91 billion - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥692.4 million, -37%, ¥5.03 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥683.5 million, -34%, ¥5.18 billion - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
¥665.4 million, +30%, ¥4.14 billion - Big Hero 6 (2014)
¥636.9 million, -06%, ¥4.67 billion - Avatar (2009)
¥624.6 million, -27%, ¥4.59 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥618.0 million, -30%, ¥4.73 billion - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
¥614.2 million, -19%, ¥4.92 billion - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
¥613.3 million, -12%, ¥5.22 billion - Code Blue (2018)
¥605.9 million, -26%, ¥4.36 billion - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
¥597.5 million, -37%, ¥5.95 billion - Jurassic World (2015)
¥585.6 million, -22%, ¥3.79 billion - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
¥584.5 million, -15%, ¥4.68 billion - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
¥580.4 million, -23%, ¥3.79 billion - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)
¥574.1 million, -19%, ¥3.55 billion - Umizaru: The Limit of Love (2006)
¥562.2 million, -17%, ¥3.70 billion - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016)
¥559.1 million, -54%, ¥3.68 billion - Spider-Man (2002)
¥555.6 million, -31%, ¥4.36 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥548.8 million, -09%, ¥3.98 billion - Arrietty (2010)
¥547.1 million, -13%, ¥3.44 billion - Monsters University (2013)
¥540.6 million, -22%, ¥4.42 billion - Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones (2002)
¥538.4 million, -09%, ¥2.84 billion - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥536.5 million, -20%, ¥3.66 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! (2010)
¥536.2 million, -26%, ¥3.88 billion - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥533.8 million, -14%, ¥4.75 billion - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009)
¥531.7 million, +46%, ¥3.20 billion - The Eternal Zero (2013)
¥525.2 million, -22%, ¥5.31 billion - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
¥522.0 million, -09%, ¥2.79 billion - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
¥515.5 million, -12%, ¥3.77 billion - Tales from Earthsea (2006)
¥511.1 million, -28%, ¥5.22 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥506.2 million, -18%, ¥5.42 billion - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
¥506.1 million, -39%, ¥4.48 billion - Hero (2007)
¥504.8 million, -01%, ¥3.18 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)

¥500 million+

Note: I may go back and add USD figures for this list, along with the next couple Biggest Weekends (Fourth and Fifth, I think), sometime soon.

 

Credit: Corpse

Edited by Geo1500
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7 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

Biggest Third Weekends/Three Week Totals (2000-):

¥1.205 billion, -11%, ¥6.73 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥1.196 billion, -15%, ¥6.67 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥1.134 billion, -02%, ¥6.29 billion - Your Name. (2016)
¥1.078 billion, +05%, ¥5.89 billion - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥1.012 billion, -16%, ¥6.78 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥998.9 million, -21%, ¥5.86 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥998.0 million, -09%, ¥5.43 billion - Aladdin (2019) *Estimate*
¥935.7 million, -20%, ¥6.13 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥893.1 million, -20%, ¥6.69 billion - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥890.0 million, -09%, ¥7.22 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
¥881.2 million, +01%, ¥5.28 billion - Frozen (2014) 
¥848.1 million, -22%, ¥4.98 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥826.7 million, +14%, ¥6.40 billion - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
¥799.6 million, -24%, ¥4.86 billion - Rookies (2009)
¥776.5 million, -05%, ¥5.26 billion - Ponyo (2008)
¥772.9 million, -30%, ¥6.37 billion - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥719.7 million, -23%, ¥5.95 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥710.3 million, -13%, ¥4.91 billion - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥692.4 million, -37%, ¥5.03 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥683.5 million, -34%, ¥5.18 billion - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
¥665.4 million, +30%, ¥4.14 billion - Big Hero 6 (2014)
¥636.9 million, -06%, ¥4.67 billion - Avatar (2009)
¥624.6 million, -27%, ¥4.59 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥618.0 million, -30%, ¥4.73 billion - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
¥614.2 million, -19%, ¥4.92 billion - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
¥613.3 million, -12%, ¥5.22 billion - Code Blue (2018)
¥605.9 million, -26%, ¥4.36 billion - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
¥597.5 million, -37%, ¥5.95 billion - Jurassic World (2015)
¥585.6 million, -22%, ¥3.79 billion - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
¥584.5 million, -15%, ¥4.68 billion - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
¥580.4 million, -23%, ¥3.79 billion - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)
¥574.1 million, -19%, ¥3.55 billion - Umizaru: The Limit of Love (2006)
¥562.2 million, -17%, ¥3.70 billion - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016)
¥559.1 million, -54%, ¥3.68 billion - Spider-Man (2002)
¥555.6 million, -31%, ¥4.36 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥548.8 million, -09%, ¥3.98 billion - Arrietty (2010)
¥547.1 million, -13%, ¥3.44 billion - Monsters University (2013)
¥540.6 million, -22%, ¥4.42 billion - Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones (2002)
¥538.4 million, -09%, ¥2.84 billion - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥536.5 million, -20%, ¥3.66 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! (2010)
¥536.2 million, -26%, ¥3.88 billion - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥533.8 million, -14%, ¥4.75 billion - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009)
¥531.7 million, +46%, ¥3.20 billion - The Eternal Zero (2013)
¥525.2 million, -22%, ¥5.31 billion - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
¥522.0 million, -09%, ¥2.79 billion - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
¥515.5 million, -12%, ¥3.77 billion - Tales from Earthsea (2006)
¥511.1 million, -28%, ¥5.22 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥506.2 million, -18%, ¥5.42 billion - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
¥506.1 million, -39%, ¥4.48 billion - Hero (2007)
¥504.8 million, -01%, ¥3.18 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)

¥500 million+

Note: I may go back and add USD figures for this list, along with the next couple Biggest Weekends (Fourth and Fifth, I think), sometime soon.

 

Credit: Corpse

HP series ... :ohmygod::ohmygod:

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06 (03) ¥126,000,000 ($1.2 million), -41%, ¥2,465,000,000 ($22.9 million), Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Toho) WK4

 

$3.1 away from $26. Shouldn't miss that. Hoping for $27+.

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4 hours ago, a2k said:

06 (03) ¥126,000,000 ($1.2 million), -41%, ¥2,465,000,000 ($22.9 million), Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Toho) WK4

 

$3.1 away from $26. Shouldn't miss that. Hoping for $27+.

Updated KOTM Japan gross is $23 M ....

 

$26 To $27 M ...

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Weekend Actuals (06/22-23)
01 (01) ¥995,950,100 ($9.3 million), -09%, ¥5,515,403,800 ($50.9 million), Aladdin (Disney) WK3
02 (---) ¥310,000,000 ($2.9 million), 0, ¥396,614,500 ($3.5 million), The Fable (Toho) NEW
03 (02) ¥133,237,300 ($1.2 million), -52%, ¥694,015,300 ($6.5 million), Men in Black International (Sony) WK2
04 (---) ¥132,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥188,900,300 ($1.8 million), X-Men: Dark Phoenix (Fox) NEW
05 (03) ¥121,389,100 ($1.1 million), -42%, ¥2,463,096,400 ($22.9 million), Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Toho) WK4
06 (---) x¥82,467,900 ($768,000), 0, ¥x82,467,900 ($768,000), Ride Your Wave (Toho) NEW
07 (06) ¥x81,815,800 ($761,000), -43%, ¥2,689,270,900 ($24.6 million), The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK6
08 (04) ¥x77,249,700 ($719,000), -57%, ¥378,833,300 ($3.5 million), Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom (Shochiku) WK2
09 (07) ¥x64,375,800 ($599,000), -35%, ¥231,828,740 ($2.1 million), Rascal Does Not Dream of a Dreaming Girl (Aniplex) WK2
09 (05) ¥x62,284,660 ($580,000), -57%, ¥288,073,620 ($2.6 million), Girls und Panzer: Finale - Chapter 2 (Showgate) WK2
10 (08) ¥x55,286,100 ($515,000), -05%, ¥622,597,200 ($5.7 million), Promare (Toho) WK5
11 (13) ¥x36,822,600 ($343,000), -07%, ¥6,055,546,800 ($54.8 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK9
12 (09) x¥32,640,900 ($304,000), -42%, ¥316,860,800 ($2.9 million), Children of the Sea (Toho Video Division) WK3


>Aladdin fell just shy of achieving a third weekend above ¥1 billion, but that's hardly a criticism given it enjoyed another single-digit drop and earned itself the seventh biggest third weekend on record! Disney's latest live-action reboot smash sold a further 691,000 admissions in its third weekend, bringing its 17-day admissions up to 3,856,800. Aladdin will continue to dominate the box-office (though Spider-Man: Far From Homewill offer some competition next week) until mid-July. Expect a total north of ¥10 billion ($90 million+), perhaps finishing around ¥11/12 billion ($100-110 million).

>The Fable came in even higher with the weekend actuals, and managed a very solid debut above the ¥300 million mark. It sold 229,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 327 screens, and 296,492 admissions since opening on Friday. It'll likely finish above ¥1.5 billion ($15 million), and a total of ¥2 billion (~$20 million) could be in play as well. Toho has been on a bit of a winning streak with their mid-tier live-action films lately, which is quite the turnaround compared to the past few years. 

>X-Men: Dark Phoenix bombed, selling just 95,000 admissions over the weekend on (a rather ridiculous) 705 screens, and 137,743 admissions since opening on Friday. This debut is almost 20% lower than its predecessor, making it the lowest opening weekend among all films in the X-Men franchise in the market. Expect a finish barely above ¥500 million ($4/5 million).

>Godzilla: King of the Monsters continues to display heavy frontloading despite good reviews/audience scores. It's basically performing as it was expected to prior to its very impressive debut, so it's doing "fine", but it should have been able to easily clear the ¥3 billion milestone following its debut and reception... not have to crawl to the mark and possibly even miss it.

>Ride Your Wave came in a bit higher than estimates, but its debut is still pretty disappointing given Toho's apparent confidence in it based on its impressive screen/showtime counts. It only sold 62,719 admissions over the weekend across 299 screens. 

>I feel utterly defeated in attempting to predict Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom. I was off a ludicrous 60% last weekend, its debut weekend, and I was off nearly 30% in its second weekend... My only explanation is that it has wide-spanning fan events/giveaways which are greatly affecting its admissions and ticket prices.

>Avengers: Endgame experienced an incredible hold in its ninth-weekend of release. It's been displaying strong late legs, perhaps due to a repeat viewing rush factor by fans before it leaves theaters.
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2019 - Top Grossing Films
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days In Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥10 billion ↨
¥9.04 billion ($82.6 million) / 7.08 million [73] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho)
¥6.56 billion ($58.6 million) / 4.92 million [E] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.)
¥6.06 billion ($54.8 million) / 4.12 million [59] - Avengers: Endgame (Disney)
¥5.54 billion ($50.0 million) / 4.16 million [66] - Kingdom (Toho/Sony)
¥5.52 billion ($50.9 million) / 3.86 million [17] - Aladdin (Disney)

¥5 billion ↨
¥4.97 billion ($45.2 million) / 4.34 million [E] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho)
¥4.60 billion ($41.9 million) / 3.57 million [E] - Masquerade Hotel (Toho)
¥3.90 billion ($35.2 million) / 3.01 million [E] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei)
¥3.80 billion ($34.6 million) / 3.06 million [E] - Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
¥3.69 billion ($33.4 million) / 2.86 million [E] - Tonde Saitama (Toei)

¥3 billion ↨
¥2.93 billion ($26.8 million) / 2.06 million [52] - Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho)
¥2.69 billion ($24.6 million) / 2.05 million [38] - The Confidence Man JP (Toho)
¥2.46 billion ($22.9 million) / 1.69 million [24] - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Toho)
¥2.12 billion ($19.2 million) / 1.70 million [E] - The Seven Conferences (Toho)
¥2.06 billion ($18.7 million) / 1.41 million [E] - Captain Marvel (Disney)
¥2.04 billion ($18.5 million) / 1.74 million [66] - Crayon Shin-chan: Hurricane Honeymoon, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho)
¥2.04 billion ($18.4 million) / 1.62 million [E] - Green Book (Gaga)

¥2 billion ↨
¥1.67 billion ($15.0 million) / 1.07 million [F] - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex)
¥1.63 billion ($14.7 million) / 1.11 million [E] - Aquaman (Warner Bros.)
¥1.55 billion ($13.9 million) / 1.27 million [E] - Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei)
¥1.52 billion ($13.7 million) / 1.20 million [E] - 12 Suicidal Teens (Warner Bros.)
¥1.50 billion ($13.6 million) / 1.03 million [E] - City Hunter: Shinjuku Private Eyes (Aniplex)
¥1.43 billion ($13.0 million) / 1.07 million [E] - A Star is Born (Warner Bros.)
¥1.34 billion ($12.0 million) / 1.05 million [E] - Fortuna's Eye (Toho)
¥1.27 billion ($11.5 million) / 1.04 million [E] - The Grinch (Toho-Towa)
¥1.21 billion ($11.1 million) / 1.09 million [E] - Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho)
¥1.12 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.86 million [E] - Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
¥1.11 billion ($10.1 million) / 0.89 million [31] - Aircraft Carrier Ibuki (Kino Films)
¥1.11 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.71 million [E] - Love Live! The School Idol Movie - Over the Rainbow (Shochiku)
¥1.06 billion ($9.7 million) / 0.83 million [E] - A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Shochiku)
¥1.05 billion ($9.4 million) / 0.84 million [E] - Snow Flower (Warner Bros.)
¥1.04 billion ($9.4 million) / 0.89 million [E] - You Shine in Moonlight (Toho)
¥1.01 billion ($9.1 million) / 0.70 million [E] - Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion (Shochiku)

¥1 billion ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)
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16 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Will Aladdin be the highest grossing movie in Japan for 2019?

 

Edit: I guess not. I completely forgot that there will be Frozen 2 later. Lol

Don't forget Weathering with You, which I guess can be considered the spiritual sequel to Your Name. 

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6 hours ago, KP1025 said:

Don't forget Weathering with You, which I guess can be considered the spiritual sequel to Your Name. 

Honestly I have no idea where those 2 movies are gonna land. Frozen and Your Name made around what, $250m? So Frozen 2 and Weathering with You could go anywhere between $100-200m.

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8 hours ago, UserHN said:

Will Aladdin be the highest grossing movie in Japan for 2019?

 

Edit: I guess not. I completely forgot that there will be Frozen 2 later. Lol

Frozen is released in late November, if legs are good enough it will be considered a 2020 film. As much as I know, in Japan a movie belongs to the year where it makes most of its money.

Though maybe Bohemian Rhapsody was an exception to that...

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