Tuesday Actuals Box Office 05/16/2012 Avengers 8.5 (389M) DS 2.6 (35M)

[baumer]

How close will the avengers be to beating TDK gross of 533M after memorial day wkd?

There is a chance that it will pass it by Sunday of Memorial Day weekend. If not, it will be on Memorial Day...imo.

[baumer]

How about Wednesday??? I'll say 8.1M.. Go

6.3

[Moviefanatic]

oops I meant 6.7 million and a small increase on Thursday.

[Gopher]

Keep in mind Dictator opens today, and typically a Wednesday release- big or not- deflates the rest of the marketplace on Wednesday and Thursday. So something like Baumer's 6.1m number makes sense.

Edited May 16, 2012 by Gopher

[baumer]

oops I meant 6.7 million and a small increase on Thursday.

I think there will be a small DECREASE Thurs, not increase.

[baumer]

Keep in mind Dictator opens today, and typically a Wednesday release- big or not- deflates the rest of the marketplace on Wednesday and Thursday. So something like Baumer's 6.1m number makes sense.

6.1 is what i think it will be at Thurs, with a pretty big increase Friday and Saturday (165+ on Fri and 55+ on Sat).

[BiffMan]

Keep in mind Dictator opens today, and typically a Wednesday release- big or not- deflates the rest of the marketplace on Wednesday and Thursday. So something like Baumer's 6.1m number makes sense.

And much less of a rush factor by this point so folks won't mind waiting for the weekend to do so. And preferably drag all their kids along. :-)

[Moviefanatic]

I think there will be a small DECREASE Thurs, not increase.

You will probably be right. I'm just hoping it increases.

[druv10]

6.3

26% drop, I am not seeing that. Probably closer to 22% or around 6.6M

[druv10]

Keep in mind Dictator opens today, and typically a Wednesday release- big or not- deflates the rest of the marketplace on Wednesday and Thursday. So something like Baumer's 6.1m number makes sense.

TA has to have an increase of 170% or around on Friday to have a weekend in the 60M range. You said 60M will fall. Do you see an increase of 170% or more?

[The Dark Alfred]

I expect 20% drop on Wednesday and a slight drop on Thursday.Wed 6.8mThu 6.4mFri 16.2 (+150%)Sat 24.3 (+50%)Sun 17.3 (-29%)57.8m weekend. 70m is a hilarity. You can quote me on that.

Edited May 16, 2012 by The Dark Alfred

[rockNrollaDIM]

Poor THG

[Moviefanatic]

So this should pass TDK on Memorial day?

[BiffMan]

Poor THG

I'm guessing Lionsgate isn't losing too much sleep over it. Too busy still counting their profits.

[doublejack]

Nice for TA and this is how it looks like to me for the next upcoming days:

7,9

8,5 +7,59%

6,7 -21,18%

6,5 -2,99%

17,2 +164,62%

25,3 +47,09%

18,3 -27,67%

60.8m 2nd weekend.

You mean TA is looking at a potential $60M 3rd weekend. I agree. Battleship is sinking, and TA will roll up a 3rd consecutive weekend win... something in the 55-62 range.

TDKR should challenge them in less 2 months

No chance. Sorry. If TDKR is a huge success it will put up numbers similar to TDK. It's simply not going to do 15-20% better, which is what it would take in terms of attendance to challenge TA's gaudy numbers.

400M on Thursday and around 460M coming out of the weekend. 600M is looking very good now.

600 is a lock at this point. Really bad drops from here on out get TA there (based on ~460 after this weekend). The real question is whether 650 is in play... and maybe even 700.

4th weekend record could happen. Remember Memorial day weekend so Sunday will be inflated.

It's possible, but MIB opening will severely hurt TA's chances of a $50M fourth weekend. The only way TA gets there is if MIB is a big disappointment, and even then TA would need a miralce hold. Still, there's nothing wrong with a $25-30M fourth weekend. If TA can reach $30M, in fact, it will be the second best fourth weekend ever. That's realistic given the holiday.

[hcolet1031]

There is a chance that it will pass it by Sunday of Memorial Day weekend. If not, it will be on Memorial Day...imo.

I was thinking memorial day.

[skykisser]

Plugging in the percentages of other SH films for TA, and comparing to the actual TA numbers, this is what I got:

Off of weekend 1, TA was tracking like IM. Something interesting, IM and Spiderman trajectory parallel (probably due to good WOM) and IM2 and Thor trajectories parallel.

Now off of weekend 2, if TA tracks like IM or Spiderman, it can beat titanic(including re-release).

If it tracks like IM2, it will get around 591M and crawl over 600M.

If it tracks like Thor, probably not.

Zooming into graph 2 for a closeup, at the moment it is tracking between IM2 and Thor.

In general, bigger drops during the weekdays show bigger boost on the weekend.

[ecstasy]

Estimates again. I'll wait for the actuals.

[Gopher]

TA has to have an increase of 170% or around on Friday to have a weekend in the 60M range. You said 60M will fall. Do you see an increase of 170% or more?

6.17m Wednesday (-24.8%) 6.13m Thursday (-0.6%) 16.2m Friday (164%) 25.1m Saturday (55%) 18.6m Sunday (-25%) 59.9m weekend. So yeah, basically 60m.

[ZattMurdock]

Plugging in the percentages of other SH films for TA, and comparing to the actual TA numbers, this is what I got:

Off of weekend 1, TA was tracking like IM. Something interesting, IM and Spiderman trajectory parallel (probably due to good WOM) and IM2 and Thor trajectories parallel.

Now off of weekend 2, if TA tracks like IM or Spiderman, it can beat titanic(including re-release).

If it tracks like IM2, it will get around 591M and crawl over 600M.

If it tracks like Thor, probably not.

Zooming into graph 2 for a closeup, at the moment it is tracking between IM2 and Thor.

In general, bigger drops during the weekdays show bigger boost on the weekend.

Great post. I want TA to beat at least Titanic.