Tuesday Actuals Box Office 05/16/2012 Avengers 8.5 (389M) DS 2.6 (35M)

[Rudolf]

This is Rudolf's prediction for TA's run:I think this is a very conservative, if not pessimistic view of the OS run. Even in this scenario, it ends with $847m. I believe TA has better legs, and I quite honestly see this getting better drops through all June OS. I'd say that the possibility of getting very close to $1B OS is good, with the Japan BO being the deal breaker.

it is not my prediction - just the mathematical progression

[fmpro]

it is not my prediction - just the mathematical progression

A very good one IMO

[seduh]

it increase 136% last friday coming froma 67% sun-mon drop against a 75% drop this week, spiderman was up 240% on it's second weekend (against attack of the clones) against 166%

[chasmmi]

If one ignores Avatar as it's run is just silly and ruins the fun for everybody the 2nd highest gross figures for movies from the 3rd W/E onwards are as follows:

3rd: Spider-Man Sony $45,036,912

4th:

Titanic Par. $28,716,310

5th:

Titanic Par. $30,011,034

6th:

Titanic Par. $25,238,720

7th:

Titanic Par. $25,907,172

8th:

Avatar Fox $22,850,881 3.0% 3,000 $7,617 $749,766,139 12/18/09

Okay seeing as Week 8 is when Titanic overtakes Avatar, it seems a good place to stop.

So when do people predict Avengers to drop out of the top two (essentially when will Titanic's Weekends overtake it (unless you believe its not making $45M this weekend).

For me, it is touch and go whether it stays ahead on Weekend 5, but weekend 6 it has no chance. (of course its still going to be over $200M behind TA's total at the same point so there's more fun to be had.)

[fmpro]

It does my heart good to see it pass AIW.

So true it hurts

[seduh]

great number! a $60 third weekend os very possible (i expected that for the second weekend)

[ZattMurdock]

it is not my prediction - just the mathematical progression

uAgreed. But you're not taking in consideration that it could get better drops, are you? It's not even a pessimistic or realistic scenario, it's a mathematical progression taking in consideration what happened in the last weeks. I can totally see your scenario happening and it's quite a feat on its own right, but I'm hopeful for better drops in the next weekends.

[seduh]

for me it will make something like thatthird weekend $604th weekend $435th weekend $26 (3rd biggest)

[Caladbolg]

it increase 136% last friday coming froma 67% sun-mon drop against a 75% drop this week, spiderman was up 240% on it's second weekend (against attack of the clones) against 166%

I found that interesting as well, that from Thursday to 3rd Friday Spider-Man jumped that high with Attack of the Clones playing. It would be great if Avengers could do similar. But it seems like everyone is predicting it won't.

[blackspider]

Good Tuesday for TA. Let's see how close it gets to my 61m weekend prediction.

[ZattMurdock]

I found that interesting as well, that from Thursday to 3rd Friday Spider-Man jumped that high with Attack of the Clones playing. It would be great if Avengers could do similar. But it seems like everyone is predicting it won't.

Well, nobody could predict that SM1 would get that jump with AOTC at time. Nobody really knows how the next weekends will go down. All we have a logical idea of what will happen, but I'm still hoping for surprises coming the next two weekends.

[baumer]

I think we're getting a little carried away now. 900 tops overseas.

[hasanahmad]

for me it will make something like thatthird weekend $604th weekend $435th weekend $26 (3rd biggest)

389+14 = 405 by thursday (405)3rd weekend 55 vs Battleship & Dictator (460M)460+17 weekdays (477M)4th weekend 44 vs MIB on Memorial Day Weekend (521M)521+18 weekdays (539M)5th weekend 21 vs Snow White & the huntsman ( 560M)560+ 9 weekdays (569M)6th weekend 9 vs Madagascar 3 & Prometheus (578M)578+ 5 weekdays (583M)7th weekend 4 vs Rock of Ages (587M)587+ 3 weekdays (586M)8th weekend 1 vs Brave & Abraham Lincoln: VH (587M)587+ 2 weekdays (589M)9th weekend >1 vs G.I Joe: Retribution (590M)Add around 5-10 million for subsequent daysfinal range 595-600M.

[Jay Beezy]

I found that interesting as well, that from Thursday to 3rd Friday Spider-Man jumped that high with Attack of the Clones playing. It would be great if Avengers could do similar. But it seems like everyone is predicting it won't.

Well something to point out is Attack of the Clones opened on a Thursday, and on that particular day, Spider-Man 1 dropped 17.6% from the previous day.

[seduh]

that's true but even with that drop it went up a lot, and also had a much bigger saturday increase than 2nd saturday, Avengers can make $60, maybe not boy i believe it would, Avenger will affect more Battleship than the other way

[baumer]

389+14 = 405 by thursday (405)3rd weekend 55 vs Battleship & Dictator (460M)460+17 weekdays (477M)4th weekend 44 vs MIB on Memorial Day Weekend (521M)521+18 weekdays (539M)5th weekend 21 vs Snow White & the huntsman ( 560M)560+ 9 weekdays (569M)6th weekend 9 vs Madagascar 3 & Prometheus (578M)578+ 5 weekdays (583M)7th weekend 4 vs Rock of Ages (587M)587+ 3 weekdays (586M)8th weekend 1 vs Brave & Abraham Lincoln: VH (587M)587+ 2 weekdays (589M)9th weekend >1 vs G.I Joe: Retribution (590M)Add around 5-10 million for subsequent daysfinal range 595-600M.

The thing is, I think you are using the wrong film to judge this against. This looks like you stuck with IM2. I have it passing 600 in early June. Final range 630-660.

[ecstasy]

Daily Domestic Gross

Tue, May. 15 2012

← previous Wide (1000+) # Title Tue, May. 15 2012 Locations Avg. Total Wks. Dist.

1 Marvel's The Avengers $8,477,854 7% 4,349 0 $1,949 $389,473,290 2 Disney

2 Dark Shadows $2,611,208 13% 3,755 -- $695 $34,607,937 1 Warner Bros.

3 Think Like a Man $515,242 7% 2,052 42 $251 $82,429,579 4 Sony / Screen Gems

4 The Hunger Games $464,758 17% 2,531 -263 $184 $387,870,286 8 Lionsgate

5 The Five-Year Engagement $462,420 33% 2,569 -372 $180 $25,432,655 3 Universal

6 The Lucky One (2012) $431,249 36% 2,839 -166 $152 $54,535,543 4 Warner Bros.

7 The Pirates! Band of Misfits $252,883 28% 3,079 -279 $82 $23,497,943 3 Sony / Columbia

8 Safe (2012) $212,344 33% 1,690 -581 $126 $16,089,814 3 Lionsgate

9 Chimpanzee $182,442 28% 1,559 28 $117 $26,042,973 4 Disneynature

10 The Raven $172,452 8% 1,888 -321 $91 $15,055,874 3 Relativity Media

11 The Cabin in the Woods $128,734 8% 1,029 -640 $125 $40,002,262 5 Lionsgate

12 The Three Stooges $70,401 14% 1,416 -758 $50 $41,285,760 5 Fox

Limited (100 — 999) # Title Tue, May. 15 2012 Locations Avg. Total Wks. Dist.

1 The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel $347,302 24% 178 151 $1,951 $4,371,070 2 Fox Searchlight

2 Girl in Progress $84,936 -8% 322 -- $264 $1,561,555 1 Lionsgate / Pantelion

3 21 Jump Street $79,099 23% 589 -451 $134 $135,261,095 9 Sony / Columbia

4 American Reunion $62,520 50% 521 -335 $120 $56,154,370 6 Universal

5 Bully (2012) $44,623 32% 263 0 $170 $2,942,426 7 Weinstein Company

6 Mirror Mirror $43,574 24% 607 -315 $72 $61,072,688 7 Relativity Media

7 Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $36,495 0% 455 -66 $80 $209,664,830 11 Universal

8 Salmon Fishing in the Yemen $23,935 9% 200 -47 $120 $8,587,965 10 CBS Films

9 The Artist $21,777 5% 751 710 $29 $44,482,006 25 Weinstein Company

10 Titanic 3D $20,762 16% 157 -176 $132 $57,652,897 6 Paramount

11 Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $19,681 24% 260 -43 $76 $102,616,873 14 Warner Bros. / New Line

12 Lockout $18,633 11% 255 -56 $73 $215,473 5 Open Road

13 Wrath of the Titans $18,268 28% 265 -450 $69 $82,022,708 7 Warner Bros.

14 Safe House $8,840 18% 136 -39 $65 $126,165,975 14 Universal

15 Jeff Who Lives at Home $6,804 10% 117 70 $58 $4,257,151 9 Paramount Vantage

16 A Thousand Words $6,747 12% 127 -13 $53 $18,305,639 10 Paramount

17 This Means War $6,554 15% 132 -39 $50 $54,599,019 13 Fox

18 Act of Valor $6,019 14% 118 -75 $51 $69,915,278 12 Relativity Media

19 Tyler Perry's Good Deeds $4,620 19% 110 -33 $42 $35,018,684 12 Lionsgate

[hasanahmad]

Daily Domestic Gross

Tue, May. 15 2012

← previous Wide (1000+) # Title Tue, May. 15 2012 Locations Avg. Total Wks. Dist.

1 Marvel's The Avengers $8,477,854 7% 4,349 0 $1,949 $389,473,290 2 Disney

2 Dark Shadows $2,611,208 13% 3,755 -- $695 $34,607,937 1 Warner Bros.

3 Think Like a Man $515,242 7% 2,052 42 $251 $82,429,579 4 Sony / Screen Gems

4 The Hunger Games $464,758 17% 2,531 -263 $184 $387,870,286 8 Lionsgate

5 The Five-Year Engagement $462,420 33% 2,569 -372 $180 $25,432,655 3 Universal

6 The Lucky One (2012) $431,249 36% 2,839 -166 $152 $54,535,543 4 Warner Bros.

7 The Pirates! Band of Misfits $252,883 28% 3,079 -279 $82 $23,497,943 3 Sony / Columbia

8 Safe (2012) $212,344 33% 1,690 -581 $126 $16,089,814 3 Lionsgate

9 Chimpanzee $182,442 28% 1,559 28 $117 $26,042,973 4 Disneynature

10 The Raven $172,452 8% 1,888 -321 $91 $15,055,874 3 Relativity Media

11 The Cabin in the Woods $128,734 8% 1,029 -640 $125 $40,002,262 5 Lionsgate

12 The Three Stooges $70,401 14% 1,416 -758 $50 $41,285,760 5 Fox

Limited (100 — 999) # Title Tue, May. 15 2012 Locations Avg. Total Wks. Dist.

1 The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel $347,302 24% 178 151 $1,951 $4,371,070 2 Fox Searchlight

2 Girl in Progress $84,936 -8% 322 -- $264 $1,561,555 1 Lionsgate / Pantelion

3 21 Jump Street $79,099 23% 589 -451 $134 $135,261,095 9 Sony / Columbia

4 American Reunion $62,520 50% 521 -335 $120 $56,154,370 6 Universal

5 Bully (2012) $44,623 32% 263 0 $170 $2,942,426 7 Weinstein Company

6 Mirror Mirror $43,574 24% 607 -315 $72 $61,072,688 7 Relativity Media

7 Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $36,495 0% 455 -66 $80 $209,664,830 11 Universal

8 Salmon Fishing in the Yemen $23,935 9% 200 -47 $120 $8,587,965 10 CBS Films

9 The Artist $21,777 5% 751 710 $29 $44,482,006 25 Weinstein Company

10 Titanic 3D $20,762 16% 157 -176 $132 $57,652,897 6 Paramount

11 Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $19,681 24% 260 -43 $76 $102,616,873 14 Warner Bros. / New Line

12 Lockout $18,633 11% 255 -56 $73 $215,473 5 Open Road

13 Wrath of the Titans $18,268 28% 265 -450 $69 $82,022,708 7 Warner Bros.

14 Safe House $8,840 18% 136 -39 $65 $126,165,975 14 Universal

15 Jeff Who Lives at Home $6,804 10% 117 70 $58 $4,257,151 9 Paramount Vantage

16 A Thousand Words $6,747 12% 127 -13 $53 $18,305,639 10 Paramount

17 This Means War $6,554 15% 132 -39 $50 $54,599,019 13 Fox

18 Act of Valor $6,019 14% 118 -75 $51 $69,915,278 12 Relativity Media

19 Tyler Perry's Good Deeds $4,620 19% 110 -33 $42 $35,018,684 12 Lionsgate

are these the actuals

[baumer]

Yes, they are actuals.

[lilmac]

389+14 = 405 by thursday (405)3rd weekend 55 vs Battleship & Dictator (460M)460+17 weekdays (477M)4th weekend 44 vs MIB on Memorial Day Weekend (521M)521+18 weekdays (539M)5th weekend 21 vs Snow White & the huntsman ( 560M)560+ 9 weekdays (569M)6th weekend 9 vs Madagascar 3 & Prometheus (578M)578+ 5 weekdays (583M)7th weekend 4 vs Rock of Ages (587M)587+ 3 weekdays (586M)8th weekend 1 vs Brave & Abraham Lincoln: VH (587M)587+ 2 weekdays (589M)9th weekend >1 vs G.I Joe: Retribution (590M)Add around 5-10 million for subsequent daysfinal range 595-600M.

that's pretty close to my $590m projection.