China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Omnicore]

12 minutes ago, Olive said:

last one not opening #1 was Ghost Rider 2  in 2012

Oh no. Shazam deserved better than this comparison.

[Legion Again]

<100 holiday OD with that Maoyan is pretty discouraging. 

 

But hey, at least Sat PS picked up a tad.

[Olive]

Friday estimates - Holiday

P storm 105M/190M,+34%

Shazam! 97.5m/103.7m, JL OD 109M including MN

Andhadhun 22.85m/43.67m, +91%

 The Shadow Play 16m/32.5m, -2.6%

Song of Youth 12.85m/278m, +41%

Dumbo 10.45m/102m, +133%

Durante la tormenta 3.3m/97.3m

Bohemian Rhapsody 1.68m/86.65m

Captain Marvel 1.26m/1031m

[POTUS 2020]

11 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

<100 holiday OD with that Maoyan is pretty discouraging. 

 

But hey, at least Sat PS picked up a tad.

yes PS did pop a bit. will get over 12m. 60-70m sat.

210-220m weekend maybe $32-33m

$50-$55 total

[a2k]

Shazam 8.0 after 30k ratings. Same on Taopiaopiao.

[UserHN]

11 minutes ago, a2k said:

Shazam 8.0 after 30k ratings. Same on Taopiaopiao.

With a Maoyan rating that low, maybe 1.5x to 1.6x multi.

[NamakFiskKa]

5 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Shazam India WOM is mixed as well. Will end in same range as Wonder Woman or lower.

Lmao atleast wait till the wknd is over before declaring that

[HouseOfTheSun]

6 minutes ago, NamakFiskKa said:

Lmao atleast wait till the wknd is over before declaring that

What is the point of this forum if you don’t want people to speculate based on available information 

[NamakFiskKa]

5 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

What is the point of this forum if you don’t want people to speculate based on available information 

Coz there's barely any to start with...

[mulderfox]

i knew Shazam would not translate well with China audience with

Spoiler

demon possessions

being in the plot

[HouseOfTheSun]

46 minutes ago, NamakFiskKa said:

Coz there's barely any to start with...

We have a lot of info about it’s reception, initial opening numbers, and a mountain of movies to compare to 

[ZeeSoh]

23 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Douban ratings of some other movies:-

Infinity War - 8.1

Aquaman - 7.7

Thor Ragnarok - 7.4

Ant Man 2 - 7.3

Shazam - 7.3

Venom - 7.2

Bumblebee - 7.1

Wonder Woman - 7.1

Captain Marvel - 7.0

Batman v Superman - 6.7

Justice League - 6.5

Douban rating has fallen to 6.8 now whereas Maoyan rating has increased and stabilized at 8.0

 

On 4/3/2019 at 11:37 PM, ZeeSoh said:

Shazam (1 day out)

Midnight - 2.07m

OD - 9.38m (+54.5%) (86787 shows)

Sat - 2.60m

Sun - 1.70m

 

Decent increase today but the increases over the past 3 days have fallen behind our two comparisons (JL and T:R). Show count is on the same level as these movies but quite behind when looking at recent (2018 onwards) SH movies. One of the reasons for both the low show count and low PS could be that another new opener which opens tomorrow and has a decent PS itself. 

 

Looking at the PS. the ratings from South Korea and the report by Gavin, I am gonna lower my OW range to below 40m. I'm thinking 34-39m USD OW at this point. 

 

Let's see how it does tomorrow. Both Justice League and Thor Ragnarok doubled their PS on the last day so Shazam should aim for that. 

 

I should have stuck with my earlier prediction but the huge last day increase in PS threw me off. 

 

Sat PS is at 12.89 which is a drop of about -47.64% from OD PS. The only other SH movie that had a holiday on OD was Captain Marvel whose Sat PS was off about 10% from OD PS. Captain Marvel Saturday went on to increase about 5% from OD. Shazam probably wont increase from Friday seeing that its PS is down so much. I think Sat might be at 70 million which would be about 30% or so drop. CM fell 37% on its Sunday. Giving Shazam a better 30% drop gets it to about 50m on Sunday. That gives a total of 223m or about 33m USD OW. That's close to where Maoyan is predicting as well (34m). 

 

One thing I overlooked was how well P Storm would be received and how well it would do. Not sure how much of an effect that had on Shazam but it's on it way to win the weekend despite releasing a day earlier. It probably will also have more shows than Shazam on Saturday as well. 

 

Legs are difficult to guess here too. Generally such low ratings would lead to short legs of around 1.5-1.6 but maybe the low OW gross and no new competition for the next 3 weeks could result in somewhat not disastrous legs around 1.7-1.8 which would get it to 56-59m total. 

[RealLyre]

where exactly do you guys see how much Maoyan is predicting?  I can't find it here http://piaofang.maoyan.com/dashboard

[Steele131]

5 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Douban rating has fallen to 6.8 now whereas Maoyan rating has increased and stabilized at 8.0

 

 

I should have stuck with my earlier prediction but the huge last day increase in PS threw me off. 

 

Sat PS is at 12.89 which is a drop of about -47.64% from OD PS. The only other SH movie that had a holiday on OD was Captain Marvel whose Sat PS was off about 10% from OD PS. Captain Marvel Saturday went on to increase about 5% from OD. Shazam probably wont increase from Friday seeing that its PS is down so much. I think Sat might be at 70 million which would be about 30% or so drop. CM fell 37% on its Sunday. Giving Shazam a better 30% drop gets it to about 50m on Sunday. That gives a total of 223m or about 33m USD OW. That's close to where Maoyan is predicting as well (34m). 

 

One thing I overlooked was how well P Storm would be received and how well it would do. Not sure how much of an effect that had on Shazam but it's on it way to win the weekend despite releasing a day earlier. It probably will also have more shows than Shazam on Saturday as well. 

 

Legs are difficult to guess here too. Generally such low ratings would lead to short legs of around 1.5-1.6 but maybe the low OW gross and no new competition for the next 3 weeks could result in somewhat not disastrous legs around 1.7-1.8 which would get it to 56-59m total. 

China when Aquaman opened “saviour”

 

China when Shazam opened “enemy”

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, NamakFiskKa said:

Lmao atleast wait till the wknd is over before declaring that

That's what I heard from my sources. Opening ain't glorious either.

[Brinatico]

At what time is the mid point today?

2.30

3.00

3.30

Because Shazam! is selling better than projections

[ZeeSoh]

Assuming a midpoint of 2:30 heading to about 62-65 for the day. About a 33-36% drop. We’ll have more clarification in a few hours

[Fake]

29 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Assuming a midpoint of 2:30 heading to about 62-65 for the day. About a 33-36% drop. We’ll have more clarification in a few hours

Seems quite right. Shazam is at 28.65M @ 2PM compared to 49M at same point on Friday, so Sat is already more than 20M behind Friday. Current pace is around 75% that of Friday, so should add another 36M from here for 65M finish.

 

210-215M OW... 400M finish. 

[cdsacken]

400 million with 210 opening? Seems very optimistic for legs given the Maoyan rating. I was thinking more like 350 max.

[Legion Again]

Yeah, about 210/335 for me.