Estimated Wknd Numbers - BD2(141.3M) Skyfall(41.5M) Lincoln(21M)

[Olive]

You guys aren't grasping something very basic:10pm on Thursday is Thursday12:00am on Friday is FridayThe weekend is Friday through Sunday. Thursday showings are not going to be included ever.If a studio wants to trick BOM into including Thursday showings into the weekend number by purposefully fudging the numbers, that's their own thing. It should not be done, though, and it sets a horrible precedent.

In many markets, movies have previews before OD, and previews are all counted as Part of OD numbers.

[#ED]

From the Over/under TDKR thread:Phillip: 145Dexter: InOlive: 145-155Firedeep: More than BD2Fake: 155spizzer: mid to high 150'sEd: Not sureFTF: under 150richzhang: just over 150avatarfan: 148spizzer: 154.6aa: 150Don Niam: Hell NoRudolph: Without 3D and IMAX impossiblebaumer: 145 hoping for 150that's the first couple of pages.....so 2 people took over 160.

I would only be "under" for being a fan of TDKR. Guys, this still has potential to open above 150M...

[wileECoyote]

Amazing how midnights have stayed flat throughout the course of the franchise. This number also proves there is little difference in opening a movie at 10PM. vs. midnight.

I think that shows that Twilight basically has pretty set, but sizeable, audience. Which leads me to think BD2 will end up BD1 +/-10% DOM.

[baumer]

Of course it has the potential to open over 150 mill. It will open to 138-150, imo. That's why I said 145 but hoping for 150.

[Derpity]

The precedent has been set. It's not fudging, it's merely the new definition. At the end of the day, the studios set the rules about how/what they report and how they frame the numbers.

No they don't set the rules...there are reporters whose job it is to report box office numbers. I get that there is some slack because of Aurora, and because Summit is a small outfit, but I really doubt reporters are going to let studios just up and redefine the weekend just to inflate their numbers.Your argument is also completely illogical since you introduce a slippery slope where basically anything can be the weekend now. If you cede 10pm, then some small studio will open at 8pm and include them in the weekend. And by your logic, you would support that decision. Then the next studio will say 5pm. Then pretty soon you're on Wednesday and counting results for the weekend.

[CloneWars]

I wonder if we will spend the next 50 pages of this thread arguing about whether 10PM is the new midnight, or if we will actually talk about the actual number....

[Plain Old Tele]

Every decade or so, there's a new wrinkle in how studios decide how to pack as many shows into an opening weekend as possible. It's like eras in baseball: the stats are the same, but as a fan you know and acknowledge how the game has changed. In the Dead Ball Era, hitting 10 home runs in a season was an insane feat. Now it's pretty shitty.Movies used to not have midnight shows at all. Look at the opening days of some huge films back in the day: they pale in comparison to the numbers now, in part because they didn't essentially have almost an extra day of shows packed into one late-night period. Or even further back, when movies didn't open super-wide, and had more gradual, roll-out releases. So, now movies are gonna be able to take advantage of Thursday 10pm shows as part of their OW. Just part of the game. It changes and so do we.

[kitik]

First of all I am not crazy, let's improve on that rhetoric of yours.

Okay Senor Loco, whatever you say.

(I keed)

I think the number would have been significantly higher and,

This is the same number as every other Twilight movie. Perhaps it should have been slightly more due to the fact that 10pm showings are easier to go to than midnight showings, but that's tough to say. Maybe the latenight crowd for this franchise is set in stone. There would be nothing wrong with that.

and, yes, people are more hesitant to go to late showings (10pm and on) after last July. Also, I don't think it is outrageous to suggest that the aurora shooting will have a lasting impact on late showings and this is far from an original thought--this will, of course, wane over time but the event was less than six months ago.

Well you admit yourself it will wane over time. In this case I think "time" is something far closer to 6 months than 6 years.

But if you were to argue that BD2 could have made 5-10% more last night if not for Aurora, I don't think I'd argue too much with that. That seems to be about the limit for this franchise though.

Human beings might have short attention spans (don't know what your comparing to lol) but not that short..

Patience, all will be revealed when we conquer your puny planet.

Maybe elephants or some other old animals you have here on earth.

[Cedarpoint1111]

The theater I went to had 10PM shows which were all sold out. They added 12 AM showings which also sold out, and then they added the final showtimes at 12:30 which I went to. Those all sold out as well. This is one of the very few theaters around here that does reserved seats so that's probably why it was all sold out. No waiting in line or anything, it was great.

[#ED]

I wonder if we will spend the next 50 pages of this thread arguing about whether 10PM is the new midnight, or if we will actually talk about the actual number....

Both can be discussed.1. 10PM showings didn't help PA4 IMO.2. 30.4 is awesome. I guess a few of us thought it could hit 40M

[kitik]

Levels of commitment aside, it's just the new reality. Theaters are going to increasingly do it and (for the most part) reduce midnights.... and I'm fairly convinced they'll still just report the numbers like they have for midnights. So, for all intensive porpoises ( ), they'll also be considered part of the OW.Fair or rational has nothing to do with it. It's just the way it's going to be.

But we'll get the early numbers for those showings, and BOM will be able to exclude them from the weekend totals.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

What are you talking about? I said to him that making less than 140 OW is not under performing.Then I said that I guarantee you it will not make less than 250 total.

In response to the tracking stating 150-160 OW:

Ohhhhman....what's the rule again? In this case I don;'t think there are rules. It's going to open massively. Only question is will be massive or holy fucking shit massive?

Guess it's just massive. Or maybe just under massive?

[baumer]

I wonder if we will spend the next 50 pages of this thread arguing about whether 10PM is the new midnight, or if we will actually talk about the actual number....

We'll talk about 10pms being or not being the new midnight because we are all spoiled now with Twilights and their midnight/OD/weekend numbers. It's funny and kind of sad to me that a 30 million midnight is now considered disappointing by some people here. It's truly baffling. To compare it, it would be like a world class runner who has trained all his life for the 100 meter dash. 3 times in his life he ran the 100 meters in 9.72, 9.76 and 9.70. those are world class speeds. Then another runner came along and they had a small engine on the back of their shirt w hich allowed them to run it just a little bit faster and it finished in 9.55. In between there was one other runner who ran also a 9.70. Now, because this runner has been training all of his life, there are people who are hoping he can run a 9.60, not enough to beat the small motor guy, but enough to smash the regular record. He then goes out and runs a 9.69 and people call it a disappointing result.It makes no sense.

[Plain Old Tele]

No they don't set the rules...there are reporters whose job it is to report box office numbers. I get that there is some slack because of Aurora, and because Summit is a small outfit, but I really doubt reporters are going to let studios just up and redefine the weekend just to inflate their numbers.Your argument is also completely illogical since you introduce a slippery slope where basically anything can be the weekend now. If you cede 10pm, then some small studio will open at 8pm and include them in the weekend. And by your logic, you would support that decision. Then the next studio will say 5pm. Then pretty soon you're on Wednesday and counting results for the weekend.

But aside from box-office nerds, no one cares. And the "reporters" get their data from industry companies that are contracted by the studios. There's no independent auditing.

[kitik]

No they don't set the rules...there are reporters whose job it is to report box office numbers. I get that there is some slack because of Aurora, and because Summit is a small outfit, but I really doubt reporters are going to let studios just up and redefine the weekend just to inflate their numbers.Your argument is also completely illogical since you introduce a slippery slope where basically anything can be the weekend now. If you cede 10pm, then some small studio will open at 8pm and include them in the weekend. And by your logic, you would support that decision. Then the next studio will say 5pm. Then pretty soon you're on Wednesday and counting results for the weekend.

yeah, a 3-day weekend is a 3-day weekend.Thursdays do not count, simple as that.

[fmpro]

30 mill ehh...Chandler: could it(pause) BE more expected?

[riczhang]

New Prediction of 148.15 million.

Edited November 16, 2012 by riczhang

[#ED]

We'll talk about 10pms being or not being the new midnight because we are all spoiled now with Twilights and their midnight/OD/weekend numbers. It's funny and kind of sad to me that a 30 million midnight is now considered disappointing by some people here. It's truly baffling. To compare it, it would be like a world class runner who has trained all his life for the 100 meter dash. 3 times in his life he ran the 100 meters in 9.72, 9.76 and 9.70. those are world class speeds. Then another runner came along and they had a small engine on the back of their shirt w hich allowed them to run it just a little bit faster and it finished in 9.55. In between there was one other runner who ran also a 9.70. Now, because this runner has been training all of his life, there are people who are hoping he can run a 9.60, not enough to beat the small motor guy, but enough to smash the regular record. He then goes out and runs a 9.69 and people call it a disappointing result.It makes no sense.

These are the same people who say TDKR grossing 448M is terrible.

[Hatebox]

The theater I went to had 10PM shows which were all sold out. They added 12 AM showings which also sold out, and then they added the final showtimes at 12:30 which I went to. Those all sold out as well. This is one of the very few theaters around here that does reserved seats so that's probably why it was all sold out. No waiting in line or anything, it was great.

It's funny that it took me this long to realise why London cinemas never have lines - assigned seating. If I think something's going to be really popular on OW I don't bother going unless I've booked ahead.

[Goffe]

In many markets, movies have previews before OD, and previews are all counted as Part of OD numbers.

at least in Brazil, the weekend gross is separated from previews