redfirebird2008 Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 I wouldn't. If it beats it, so be it. You're OK with them Puerto Ricoing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 I don't think that's right, I think it gets $161m if it matches IM2, but should def have a better multiplier than that. The regulars here are certainly better versed in box office data than I am. I thought IM2 had an opening weekend multiplier of 2.50. Is that wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 I wouldn't. If it beats it, so be it. I'm disappointed in you. I'll have to take on the "Under DH2" Crusade myself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 BOM has it at 177M.GTFO.I'll shit my pants if this happens. There's no way Catching Fire will open to more than that without 3D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jawa Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 Shrek 4 was. Prince of Persia wasn't. I remember plenty of people predicting it to be the next Pirates of the Caribbean. Needless to say, that did not happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 (edited) The short version: I think a lot of kids will like some parts of it, but if anyone subscribes to "the Avengers effect" at the box office then they also have to see the downside of that. IMO, the downside is that kids will go into this fresh off Avengers and they'll get a movie that isn't much like Avengers until the final 20 minutes. They may like it, but it's repeat business I'm concerned about. Not just from kids, but adults too. I don't see either age demographic there falling in love with this movie and in a month with massive competition such as this one, that's not going to help it's legs if I'm right. True but based off legs its guaranteed for 360 million and much more... Nonetheless IM3 will likely be around 260-270 million by next Sunday... Yeah this is looking towards a sizable increase from Friday day business here in Canada, mid afternoon shows about 75% filled.... Edited May 4, 2013 by Lordmandeep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmnerdjamie Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 I remember plenty of people predicting it to be the next Pirates of the Caribbean. Needless to say, that did not happen. Get out! Really? Wow. Those people were crazy. Even circa then (no offense). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 the problem I think many have with the twist is not that Mandarin isn't an Asian stereotype . It s that they were still expecting the Mandarin to be a master terrorist who styled himself after Sun Zhu and was still going to be iron Man's greatest threat, instead they got a drug addled British actor pretending to be a terrorist and some minor character then becoming the main villain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackO Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 BOM has it at 177M.GTFO.I'll shit my pants if this happens. There's no way Catching Fire will open to more than that without 3D. BOM has it at 177M.GTFO.I'll shit my pants if this happens. There's no way Catching Fire will open to more than that without 3D. Catching Fire is new Twilight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 Even better OD then when I left last night, $160m range looks pretty good now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted May 4, 2013 Author Founder / Operator Share Posted May 4, 2013 (edited) More I think about it, the more I hate the twist. It depowers the villain and makes the first hour or so worth of threats moot (in a way). But it didn't destroy the overall narrative/momentum of the story. I'd compare it more to... Unbreakable's twist, i.e. "Ummmm OK. That's dumb but whatever." Still a good movie. Well-put. What did you think of it? I enjoyed the first half. Stark's character arc was excellent. The twist was hilarious. But the final hour failed to deliver for me. If a movie is going to bait and switch on a great villain, they have to prove it's worth it. And it wasn't, IMHO. Same applies to your theory as well. We will know soon enough if families liked it. Except I'm not citing sample sizes of any kind. I'm giving my opinion on how the movie will play with the masses. I don't like the argument of "well I saw it with my kids, etc." because it's proven wrong just as often as it's proven right on these forums over the decade I've been on them. I go with my interpretation of the movie and how similar movies in the past have played with whatever audience I'm trying to analyze. It's not 100% without bias (nothing is), but it's grounded in some way at least. If a movie really swings in one direction or the other, then I'll give more credence to a crowd reaction (examples being Avengers or Green Lantern). Edited May 4, 2013 by ShawnMR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catlover Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 Small sample sizes. I didn't say "no kids" would enjoy it. Yes, but the other kids at my show looked excited too. And there were a LOT of kids. I know, that's still a small sample, but I think I still can conclude that most kids will enjoy it. And I also didn't say that all kids would like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heretic Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 Catching Fire is new Twilight. It shouldn't even be mentioned in the same breath as Twilight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandrew Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 Shawn do you think this will have less kiddy appeal than Trek or MoS, just by what weve seen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmnerdjamie Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 (edited) One big advantage for Iron Man 3. No major competition next weekend. No other tentpoles will have such a cake-walk to a repeat weekend victory this summer. Edited May 4, 2013 by filmnerdjamie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lumos Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 (edited) Lol there are SEVEN films already that have opened between 67.2M - 72.7M, but only three have opened above 75M. It obviously takes a huge midnight haul or a massive day + 3D to get past that milestone...... Edited May 4, 2013 by Mr Potter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted May 4, 2013 Author Founder / Operator Share Posted May 4, 2013 Shawn do you think this will have less kiddy appeal than Trek or MoS, just by what weve seen? Hard to say. I'm skeptical on their kiddie appeal too, although Trek looks like it have more consistent action (just a guess though). If anything, I'm more and more convinced that DM2 and MU will be huge if either of those movies don't suck in kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 It really sucks that I haven't seen the movie yet....Going tomorrow, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted May 4, 2013 Author Founder / Operator Share Posted May 4, 2013 (edited) Anyway, I'm not hating on the movie. I've definitely seen worse movies and I'll probably see this again. The opening day is fantastic and about $3m above what I thought it would do. Let's see where it goes. Edited May 4, 2013 by ShawnMR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 The short version: I think a lot of kids will like some parts of it, but if anyone subscribes to "the Avengers effect" at the box office then they also have to see the downside of that. IMO, the downside is that kids will go into this fresh off Avengers and they'll get a movie that isn't much like Avengers until the final 20 minutes. They may like it, but it's repeat business I'm concerned about. Not just from kids, but adults too. I don't see either age demographic there falling in love with this movie and in a month with massive competition such as this one, that's not going to help it's legs if I'm right. My nephew, loved the sequence in Tennessee between RDJ and the kid so they're scenes before the finale that will interest kids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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