Weekend Actuals 5/3-5/5

[Fake]

I think it will increase slightly.

[kayumanggi]

What is that drop in percentage?

 

Hmm, I told you to wait for the 2nd weekend drop first. Saturday was awesome, Sunday's drop was bigger than expected and Monday's drop is one of the worst for a non-animated film. This is interesting.

[kayumanggi]

This will lose IMAX in 7 or 8 days.

[baumer]

12M.. It's Discount Tuesday..

 

Big early May releases do not go up.

[baumer]

Maybe it's a wee bit of a trade off? The fact that it dropped a bit steeper than those means it could increase a bit today?

 

Also, I keep forgetting when theaters started doing Discount Tuesdays. When did that start?

 

RTH says they have been doing it since the 80's...and that is true, but not on a massive scale like they do now.  Canada started doing discount Tuesday's heavily in 2011.  I'm not sure about the US.  But before 2011, discount Tuesdays here were in a very few markets.

[baumer]

What is that drop in percentage?

 

Hmm, I told you to wait for the 2nd weekend drop first. Saturday was awesome, Sunday's drop was bigger than expected and Monday's drop is one of the worst for a non-animated film. This is interesting.

75% drop.

[kayumanggi]

75% drop.

 

Wow.

[redfirebird2008]

Big early May releases do not go up.

 

 

First week of release is always more difficult to pull off the discount Tuesday increase, especially for a huge release like you said. Even Avengers dropped on Tuesday despite amazing WOM, although it had some spillover that probably inflated the Monday number. IM3 had more showtimes than TA over the weekend, so demand was met a lot easier this time around.

 

Will be interesting to see how things go the next few days. The film really needs to perform well over the first two weeks. It's similar to SM3 in that regard. SM3 had a free ride (ZERO competition) until two weeks later when Shrek came out and then Pirates a week later. IM3 isn't facing two monsters like that, but it is facing three very big properties that will command very large screen counts and will be going after much of the same demographics.

[baumer]

Curious to see what ERC has the estimate at...should of been out by now

[baumer]

First week of release is always more difficult to pull off the discount Tuesday increase, especially for a huge release like you said. Even Avengers dropped on Tuesday despite amazing WOM, although it had some spillover that probably inflated the Monday number. IM3 had more showtimes than TA over the weekend, so demand was met a lot easier this time around.

 

Will be interesting to see how things go the next few days. The film really needs to perform well over the first two weeks. It's similar to SM3 in that regard. SM3 had a free ride (ZERO competition) until two weeks later when Shrek came out and then Pirates a week later. IM3 isn't facing two monsters like that, but it is facing three very big properties that will command very large screen counts and will be going after much of the same demographics.

 

If we are looking at this without passion or prejudice, people have to admit the WOM is not stellar.  It's not Spider-man 3 bad but it's not far off.  For just as many people who liked it, there are those that do not like it.  So the drop this weekend could come close to 60%, imo.  I could be wrong, but a normal drop would be about 55%, so a 60% drop doesn't seem out of the question.

[JohnnyGossamer]

If we are looking at this without passion or prejudice, people have to admit the WOM is not stellar.  It's not Spider-man 3 bad but it's not far off.  For just as many people who liked it, there are those that do not like it.  So the drop this weekend could come close to 60%, imo.  I could be wrong, but a normal drop would be about 55%, so a 60% drop doesn't seem out of the question.

Likely too early to tell. That said, I'm saying split the difference between 55% and 60% and Iron Man 3 grosses just under $75M for the its second frame.

[redfirebird2008]

If we are looking at this without passion or prejudice, people have to admit the WOM is not stellar.  It's not Spider-man 3 bad but it's not far off.  For just as many people who liked it, there are those that do not like it.  So the drop this weekend could come close to 60%, imo.  I could be wrong, but a normal drop would be about 55%, so a 60% drop doesn't seem out of the question.

 

 

I still think it's too early to make a call on WOM. I mean IM1 dropped 73% on its first Monday and that film had awesome WOM. I don't think IM3 has anywhere near that level. The fact that even the diehard Iron Man fans at SHH are voting for IM1 at a rate of 68% in a poll on that forum kind of says it all. But at the same time, I think a lot of people are enjoying the film very much. The thing to remember is the movie industry keeps getting more and more frontloaded. SM3's multiplier in 2007 would be the equivalent of about a 2.0 today (maybe even worse). The bigger a movie opens, the harder it will fall (unless it's a freak like TA). $174m is a massive opening. Destined to be extremely frontloaded, but hopefully it can at least get a similar multiplier to IM2 so it passes $400m. Will suck if it pulls a SM3 multiplier.

[baumer]

But I'm not just using the Monday drop.  I'm using what people are saying about it.

[Gopher]

RTH underestimated IM3's Sunday by a million so hopefully he's a little low, but yeesh, I was hoping for 13m. Maybe the Tuesday hold will be good (<3%).

[baumer]

Click the links....the first is for Spiderm-man 3, after it came out, so this is chronoligically what the reviews looked like in 2007:

 

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0413300/reviews?filter=chrono;filter=chrono;start=1600

 

And here are the chronological reviews for IM3:

 

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1300854/reviews?filter=chrono

[wileECoyote]

I guess we're all trying to read tea leaves again. I'm a little disappointed with the early Monday number but I'll hold off on calling WOM and how front loaded IM3 is for now. There's just too little known to make a good call. IM1 had a steep drop on its first Monday and it had excellent WOM in hindsight.

[catlover]

It's one of the biggest May Monday drops for a non animated film.

Oops, I miscalculated the percentage lol. It IS pretty big. But it's the same as IM1 right? Well, nothing to worry about yet. Just a little below people's expectation.

Edited May 7, 2013 by catlover

[druv10]

Hmm, drop is in between IM1 and SM3. Friday and Saturday jumps will give us insight into whether TDKR's total is dead or not. 

[baumer]

Top 15 theatres engagement (gets published in Variety)wkend 03-05/5all IM31-AMC lincoln Square 13, New york City NY  397,9222-AMC Burbank 30, Burbank CA 394,3273-Regal E-Walk 13, New York City NY   348,1954-Pacific Arclight Sherman Oaks   334,0765-Regal Irvine Spectrum 21 , Irvin CA   332,9666-AMC Metreon 16, San Francisco CA 320,5357-AMC Garden State 16, Paramus NJ   319,2658-AMC Tysons Corner 16, Mclean VA   317,5629-AMC downtown Disney 24, Orlando FL 306,63110-AMC Orange 30, Orange CA   305,73211-Regal LA Live Stadium 14, Los Angeles 295,13012-ST Palladium 18, San Antonio TX 294,62613-Pacific Arclight Pasadena, Pasadena CA  294,03214-Cobb Dolphin 24, Miami FL 291,48515-AMC 34st 14, New York City NY 284,914biggest in Can Scotiabank Toronto 250k 

 

I'm always shocked when I see Scotiabank on the list, and it does get there from time to time.  It's a massive theater and it's  agorgeous theater, and Toronto is a massive place, but to see it up there (not this time but others) with the big boys in NY and Cali and such, is pretty cool.