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John Marston

X-Men: Days of Future Past OS thread

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It's not hitting $500m OS. Didn't it open in all of its markets? If so, then it's not hitting it. Probably finish with $475m. $550m is dead, though. No way in hell is it going to achieve a 3x multiplier. Still a fucking huge success.

Spain, Japan and Venezuela are yet to open. First Class did 18m in these markets, so going by the trend, this one will do 30m+.Yeah 550m is dead. But 500m is likely.
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Spain, Japan and Venezuela are yet to open. First Class did 18m in these markets, so going by the trend, this one will do 30m+.Yeah 550m is dead. But 500m is likely.

 

$550M is not dead. Based on Pirates 4 trajectory it can make $804.6 / $260.4M x $171.1M = $529M from the countries in which it has opened already. Add in Japan, Spain and Venezuela and $550M is a possibility.

 

Reasons for comparing with Pirates 4 (only overseas): they had a similar release dates. They opened in almost all markets on the same weekend. They are sequels that came out after a very long wait. They faced (or will face) a lot of post-release competition from 3D and non-3D films. (KFP2-HPII-XM:FC vs Malef.-Edge-HtTYD2). What helps DOFP even more is that it probably has better WOM.

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THR: Internationally, the 20th Century Fox tentpole took in $171.1 million for the weekend, putting its global total at a whopping $281.1 million -- the best debut of any X-Men film.

Is it 261M or 281M?

 

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$550M is not dead. Based on Pirates 4 trajectory it can make $804.6 / $260.4M x $171.1M = $529M from the countries in which it has opened already. Add in Japan, Spain and Venezuela and $550M is a possibility.Reasons for comparing with Pirates 4 (only overseas): they had a similar release dates. They opened in almost all markets on the same weekend. They are sequels that came out after a very long wait. They faced (or will face) a lot of post-release competition from 3D and non-3D films. (KFP2-HPII-XM:FC vs Malef.-Edge-HtTYD2). What helps DOFP even more is that it probably has better WOM.

You are quite right to compare it with POTC4, but for POTC4, Japan had also opened on OW and it had a leggy run. If you remove Japan from the equation, the opening was 241.8m and total was 695.5m. Performing the same calculation with these numbers will yield 492m from current markets. I am expecting 475m because of slightly heavier competition, and another 35m from the remaining markets.
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Looking at the overseas gross of the top 5-10 movies in 2004-7, then comparing that to 2010-2013, I think 450m in 2014 is about the equivalent of 225m in 2006.  So it looks like overseas DoFP will more or less match up with Xmen3 in terms of market share.

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I think 475 is where it finishes (in line with my expectations pre-opening). I agree with Noctis that, having opened in pretty much all markets, its legs won't take it past 500 million. But, who knows? Maybe it does 60 million in Japan. LOL.

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Marvel fanboys are dying of anger, Not was this time that the X-men will meet mickey and donald duck

 

Marvel fanboys are dying of anger, Not was this time that the X-men will meet mickey and donald duck

Well, the fanboys also hated Iron Man 3... 

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So beautiful. Look at all those double digit openings.

 

It's gonna be a huge OS year for Fox. Coming up : Dragon 2 ($500M), Apes 2 ($350M), Penguins of Madagascar ($400M), Night at the Museum 3 ($300M), Exodus ($300M). Exodus will do better OS number than Noah...hopefully.

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