Fake Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 It's not hitting $500m OS. Didn't it open in all of its markets? If so, then it's not hitting it. Probably finish with $475m. $550m is dead, though. No way in hell is it going to achieve a 3x multiplier. Still a fucking huge success.Spain, Japan and Venezuela are yet to open. First Class did 18m in these markets, so going by the trend, this one will do 30m+.Yeah 550m is dead. But 500m is likely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quigley Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 Spain, Japan and Venezuela are yet to open. First Class did 18m in these markets, so going by the trend, this one will do 30m+.Yeah 550m is dead. But 500m is likely. $550M is not dead. Based on Pirates 4 trajectory it can make $804.6 / $260.4M x $171.1M = $529M from the countries in which it has opened already. Add in Japan, Spain and Venezuela and $550M is a possibility. Reasons for comparing with Pirates 4 (only overseas): they had a similar release dates. They opened in almost all markets on the same weekend. They are sequels that came out after a very long wait. They faced (or will face) a lot of post-release competition from 3D and non-3D films. (KFP2-HPII-XM:FC vs Malef.-Edge-HtTYD2). What helps DOFP even more is that it probably has better WOM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 THR: Internationally, the 20th Century Fox tentpole took in $171.1 million for the weekend, putting its global total at a whopping $281.1 million -- the best debut of any X-Men film. Is it 261M or 281M? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 $550M is not dead. Based on Pirates 4 trajectory it can make $804.6 / $260.4M x $171.1M = $529M from the countries in which it has opened already. Add in Japan, Spain and Venezuela and $550M is a possibility.Reasons for comparing with Pirates 4 (only overseas): they had a similar release dates. They opened in almost all markets on the same weekend. They are sequels that came out after a very long wait. They faced (or will face) a lot of post-release competition from 3D and non-3D films. (KFP2-HPII-XM:FC vs Malef.-Edge-HtTYD2). What helps DOFP even more is that it probably has better WOM.You are quite right to compare it with POTC4, but for POTC4, Japan had also opened on OW and it had a leggy run. If you remove Japan from the equation, the opening was 241.8m and total was 695.5m. Performing the same calculation with these numbers will yield 492m from current markets. I am expecting 475m because of slightly heavier competition, and another 35m from the remaining markets. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tower Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 Is it 261M or 281M? 261M 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 Is it 261M or 281M? 281M includes Monday DOM gross. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 And to add, the above projection requires 80m next weekend including Japanese opening. So if it fails to do 75m, then 500m OS would become a bit difficult. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 Looking at the overseas gross of the top 5-10 movies in 2004-7, then comparing that to 2010-2013, I think 450m in 2014 is about the equivalent of 225m in 2006. So it looks like overseas DoFP will more or less match up with Xmen3 in terms of market share. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wally Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 Guys, I think you're underestimating X-Men's WOM. Everybody loved the movie. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddevil18 Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 I think 475 is where it finishes (in line with my expectations pre-opening). I agree with Noctis that, having opened in pretty much all markets, its legs won't take it past 500 million. But, who knows? Maybe it does 60 million in Japan. LOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 Anything over 700 m WW is a bonus. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecstasy Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 Exhibitor Relations @ERCboxoffice 5s X-MEN int'l update: CHI ($37.7M) UK ($14.2M) KOR ($13.5M) FRA ($10.6M) MEX ($10.4M) RUS ($10.3M) BRZ ($8M) OZ ($7.7M) Germany - $4.7M, Philippines - $3.9M, India - $3.9M So beautiful. Look at all those double digit openings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 Maybe it does 60 million in Japan. LOL. No. Japan HATES superheroes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alisson23 Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 Marvel fanboys are dying of anger, Not was this time that the X-men will meet mickey and donald duck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wally Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 Marvel fanboys are dying of anger, Not was this time that the X-men will meet mickey and donald duck Marvel fanboys are dying of anger, Not was this time that the X-men will meet mickey and donald duck Well, the fanboys also hated Iron Man 3... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddevil18 Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 No. Japan HATES superheroes. Hence the LOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alisson23 Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 Well, the fanboys also hated Iron Man 3... I know man, I am talking about the BO. Marvel fanboys I say is Marvel Studios fanboys who says: The rights of X-men has back to marvel and blah blah blah... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 281M includes Monday DOM gross. Why do they add Monday's DOM gross, if they do that, than do the OS #'s as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 China should do 3x of its ow. some of the mature markets should also repeat. I think 500M OS should happen with 30M from markets not yet opened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zackzack Posted May 26, 2014 Share Posted May 26, 2014 So beautiful. Look at all those double digit openings. It's gonna be a huge OS year for Fox. Coming up : Dragon 2 ($500M), Apes 2 ($350M), Penguins of Madagascar ($400M), Night at the Museum 3 ($300M), Exodus ($300M). Exodus will do better OS number than Noah...hopefully. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...