Transformers: The Last Knight | 6/21/2017 | Big Budget, Weak OW?

[Water Bottle]

On 6/11/2017 at 2:44 PM, Mr Impossible said:

I think haters are hyping the fatigue this is getting. You can't compare Dead Men Tell No Tales to this. On Stranger Tides was 6 years before DMN, Age of Extinction was 3 years ago. It won't have 6 years of fatigueness behind it that the new Pirates has. Johnny Depp's controversies has hurt his franchise. Also 3 years of China growth from the last movie will also definitely help. 

 

My prediction:

 

DOM - $200M 

China - $400M

Rest OS - $420M 

WW - $1.02B 

 

So fatigue for Transformers is actually worse than for Pirates then since fatigue is worse the less time there is between sequels.

[grim22]

Tracking for 70M 5-day: http://deadline.com/2017/06/spider-man-homecoming-hoping-to-catch-opening-in-the-100m-vicinity-1202114641/

 

Quote

Paramount’s upcoming Transformers: The Last Knight isn’t expected to do the domestic box office any favors with the series lowest opening yet of $70M over five days.

 

[RichWS]

Sounds about right.

[John Marston]

10 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Tracking for 70M 5-day: http://deadline.com/2017/06/spider-man-homecoming-hoping-to-catch-opening-in-the-100m-vicinity-1202114641/

 

 

 

 

That seems too low. Think it will open a bit higher. This is a walk up friendly franchise e. I do think the first two days will be muted due to the last minute release

date change though 

[kowhite]

This is gonna be Resident Evil, Warcraft, xXx box office disparity, but played out mega blockbuster style if that tracking comes true.

[Noodlebug]

35 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

That seems too low. Think it will open a bit higher. This is a walk up friendly franchise e. I do think the first two days will be muted due to the last minute release

date change though 

 

Agreed. Also, the fact that it has zero competition for a week and a half before DM3, and then another week before it has true competition (SM:H). That tracking might be the absolute minimum it will make, but as you said, this is a walk up franchise. Also, I just don't want this to do worse than POTC5. That'd be tragic.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Paramount doesn't seem that concerned with marketing domestically as it will make 80% of its grosses overseas.

 

still should have a loyal audience for this at 150m-200m domestically, bring back Shia! 

[Water Bottle]

Just now, Ryan Reynolds said:

Paramount doesn't seem that concerned with marketing domestically as it will make 80% of its grosses overseas.

 

still should have a loyal audience for this at 150m-200m domestically, bring back Shia! 

 

It's been marketing the movie domestically like crazy?

[Barnack]

7 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Paramount doesn't seem that concerned with marketing domestically as it will make 80% of its grosses overseas.

 

still should have a loyal audience for this at 150m-200m domestically, bring back Shia! 

 

Don't know for the rest of the domestic market, but it has been marketed a lot in canada and it also often played during the nba finals game. It is getting the blockbuster domestic release (there is a toy company and many extremely powerful people behind that movie, I doubt they would let Paramount not spend a fortune on the marketing)

[Ryan Reynolds]

4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Don't know for the rest of the domestic market, but it has been marketed a lot in canada and it also often played during the nba finals game. It is getting the blockbuster domestic release (there is a toy company and many extremely powerful people behind that movie, I doubt they would let Paramount not spend a fortune on the marketing)

the may be the case, don't watch a lot of tv, and definitely never watch commercials , but i feel Wonder Woman had way more marketing

[commonsense88]

T-Mobile is doing 4$ tickets for Transformers. I think Paramount is trying to pump up the numbers.

[a2k]

6 hours ago, Water Bottle said:

 

So fatigue for Transformers is actually worse than for Pirates then since fatigue is worse the less time there is between sequels.

 

Considering that both TF and POTC movies this year are five-quels and both are coming off a 240-245 predecessor, their comparison seems apt. If TF5 ends up below POTC5 dom one can say it has fatigued more domestically.

 

Edited June 16, 2017 by a2knet

[a2k]

Thinking 155 dom, 310 Ch, 410 OS-Ch for 875 global. Competing with DM3 and SM6 for summer global crown.

Edited June 16, 2017 by a2knet

[Johnny Tran]

This is doing $85M over five days trust me 

[RobinHood26]

This movie is going to get more of my money in 2017 than any film so far. 

 

Its gonna be bad but its gonna be Bay-Glorious bad. IMAX 3D here I come. The deserve it for shooting in the format. 

[Kvikk Lunsj]

30 minutes ago, Jay Hollywood said:

This movie is going to get more of my money in 2017 than any film so far. 

 

Its gonna be bad but its gonna be Bay-Glorious bad. IMAX 3D here I come. The deserve it for shooting in the format. 

That better change with Dunkirk and Star Wars

[vc2002]

1 hour ago, Jay Hollywood said:

This movie is going to get more of my money in 2017 than any film so far. 

 

Its gonna be bad but its gonna be Bay-Glorious bad. IMAX 3D here I come. The deserve it for shooting in the format. 

 

 

IMAX 70mm on celluliod is special (way ahead of the usually 35mm and 70mm). IMAX 3D is not even close to being as special. IMAX 3D cameras are basically Alexa 65 6Ks, but only under the eye catching name "IMAX". Alexa 65 6K is only one of the top digital cameras out there. (Many would argue it's the best because it got the biggest sensor, but it's still not far ahead of others, not in the way IMAX 70mm ahead of 35mm)

 

Don't get a hard on everytime you hear IMAX. IMAX digital cameras are not that special.

[kitik]

One week left to vote for Transformers in the Most Anticipated Movies thread:

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/667-box-office-theorys-most-anticipated-films/?page=306

 

Well, one week to vote for this Transformers movie. You'll still be able to vote for Bumblebee after that. 

[Lake]

Opens at CriticsChoice at 90/100. 

 

http://criticschoice.com/search/?s=transformers+last

[Asyulus]

Final predictions:

DOM: $161m

OS: $662m

WW: $823m