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2014 Best Picture Prediction thread!

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yep 2 horse race. selma's likely sizeable box office gross could tip it in selma's direction. boyhood has an "indie" size gross only.

Doesn't matter. Boyhood got a summer release just like The Hurt Locker and Crash. Both of those had pretty low grosses, especially Hurt Locker. 

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Doesn't matter. Boyhood got a summer release just like The Hurt Locker and Crash. Both of those had pretty low grosses, especially Hurt Locker. 

Hurt Locker had weak competition from an Academy perspective (Avatar was its strongest and we all know the Academy just doesn't award sci-fi). Meanwhile, Brokeback had to fight with some still present homophobia back during its release that I will always believe is the sole reason Crash was able to beat it. Selma on the other hand has everything going for it. It is a critical darling and probably soon to be audience darling, based on a true story of an important and very well known historical figure working towards a cause that virtually no one would publicly disagree with in 2015. It is far stronger competition to Boyhood than Avatar or even Brokeback were to their respective winners.

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Hurt Locker had weak competition from an Academy perspective (Avatar was its strongest and we all know the Academy just doesn't award sci-fi). Meanwhile, Brokeback had to fight with some still present homophobia back during its release that I will always believe is the sole reason Crash was able to beat it. Selma on the other hand has everything going for it. It is a critical darling and probably soon to be audience darling, based on a true story of an important and very well known historical figure working towards a cause that virtually no one would publicly disagree with in 2015. It is far stronger competition to Boyhood than Avatar or even Brokeback were to their respective winners.

Boyhood is also a far stronger movie than either of those.

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Hurt Locker had weak competition from an Academy perspective (Avatar was its strongest and we all know the Academy just doesn't award sci-fi). Meanwhile, Brokeback had to fight with some still present homophobia back during its release that I will always believe is the sole reason Crash was able to beat it. Selma on the other hand has everything going for it. It is a critical darling and probably soon to be audience darling, based on a true story of an important and very well known historical figure working towards a cause that virtually no one would publicly disagree with in 2015. It is far stronger competition to Boyhood than Avatar or even Brokeback were to their respective winners.

 

Agreed. Being the type of movie Boyhood is, I think it had to have made more money, with Coltrane getting more Best Actor notices, for there to be such certainty it would win Best Picture at this stage. The Hurt Locker did win with its low gross, but it was about the War in Iraq, and what did it have to beat: blue alien sci-fi, Tarantino gore, Sandra Bullock in a Hallmark movie, George Clooney firing people? I doubt Hurt Locker ever could've won against a King's Speech or Argo. It's not like the best-reviewed movie always wins Best Picture...Selma will probably be the second best in reviews among all the Best Picture nominees by RT/Metacritic standards and that's been more than good enough to win BP in the past.

 

Unbroken is securing its place in the Best Picture lineup with the strong box office start. LOL if it pulls a Gladiator and wins BP...AMPAS would get it from both sides, causing Twitter outages for sure.

Edited by BoxOfficeChica
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Boyhood is also a far stronger movie than either of those.

LOL. In what world beside the one that exists on the internet is Boyhood a better film than the Hurt Locker, which is a masterclass of direction, intensity, cultural relevance, and acting? Crash, obviously, but Hurt Locker, nopeee man nope. 

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Hurt Locker had weak competition from an Academy perspective (Avatar was its strongest and we all know the Academy just doesn't award sci-fi). Meanwhile, Brokeback had to fight with some still present homophobia back during its release that I will always believe is the sole reason Crash was able to beat it. Selma on the other hand has everything going for it. It is a critical darling and probably soon to be audience darling, based on a true story of an important and very well known historical figure working towards a cause that virtually no one would publicly disagree with in 2015. It is far stronger competition to Boyhood than Avatar or even Brokeback were to their respective winners.

Yep, only reason Crash won was because of the homophobia in the academy. Some voters refused to even watch Brokeback Mountain. It was never a fair fight.

 

 

As for this year, atm I'm going for Boyhood. That might well change given Selma's upcoming release but right now I don't know for sure, so I'm playing it safe and saying Boyhood will get it. Though I have no doubt Selma will do well, well-received so far and it will look good for them if they give an MLK movie the award.

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LOL. In what world beside the one that exists on the internet is Boyhood a better film than the Hurt Locker, which is a masterclass of direction, intensity, cultural relevance, and acting? Crash, obviously, but Hurt Locker, nopeee man nope.

In the world that Boyhood is the best reviewed movie of all time? Better reviews than Citizen Kane.

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I thought the Hurt Locker was okay, but when it comes to other war films, I think there are stronger choices (not exactly about Iraq though). Boyhood is far more unique. There are plenty of war films, but something like Boyhood is pretty rare.

 

Anyway, I feel 2009 was pretty weak for BP contenders. 

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Nine nominees

 

BOYHOOD - LOCKED

BIRDMAN - LOCKED

SELMA - LOCKED

THE IMITATION GAME - LOCKED. STRONG BO

THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING - STRONG CANDIDATE

GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL - STRONG CANDIDATE

WHIPLASH - CANDIDATE WITH WEAK POINTS. LOOSING HEAT

UNBROKEN - CANDIDATE WITH WEAK POINTS. GAINING HEAT

INTO THE WOODS - CANDIDATE WITH WEAK POINTS. GAINING HEAT

 

Could surprise

GONE GIRL - FADING. BO WISE, OTHER FILMS ARE ECLIPSING IT.

FOXCATCHER - FADING. MEH RUN

NIGHTCRAWLER - SURGING. IT'S STILL IN THE CONVERSATION AFTER 2 MONTHS. CRITICS SUPPORT

AMERICAN SNIPER - SURGING. GORGEOUS LIMITED OPENING. LAST CONTENDER

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I don't see why people are suddenly ruling Gone Girl out of BP. I think it would get in with as few as 7 noms. It is likely to be the highest grosser of any of the contenders, reviews were strong, and Fincher is relatively well liked with the Academy these days. He may not get in the 5 slot director category (my fingers are crossed for Anderson knocking him out), but unless BP noms are only 5 or 6 this year the movie should make it for BP. After all it's near locked for an Actress, Screenplay, Cinematography, and Editing nom. That's 4 huge categories to get nominated in and yet get no BP one.

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