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2014 Best Picture Prediction thread!

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Then this probably how the final list will look.

American Sniper

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

Gone Girl

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Looks about right, I'm thinking it's something like

Likelihood for nom rankings

Near-Locks (nothing is ever truly locked till it gets the award)

1.Boyhood

2.Birdman

3.The Imitation Game

4.The Grand Budapest Hotel

5.The Theory of Everything

Fighting For the Last Spots (depends on nom number)

6.Whiplash

7.Gone Girl

8.American Sniper

9.Selma

10.Nightcrawler

11.Foxcatcher

Outside possibilities

12.Mr. Turner

13.Into the Woods

14.Interstellar

15.Unbroken

16.Wild

17.A Most Violent Year

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I think Galaxy has a better chance then Most Violent year.

 

And from the looks of it-Gone Girl will be the only high grossing nom this year.

 

(I also would have Woods, Interstellar, Unbroken, and Wild over Mr. Turner and Woods/Unbroken over Foxcatcher-other then that its decent I suppose-not sure if I would have Whiplash that high either as I could see that missing out, then again it could surprise big time!)

And I'm surprised at the number of Nightcrawler predicts sneaking in all of a sudden.

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I think Galaxy has a better chance then Most Violent year.

 

And from the looks of it-Gone Girl will be the only high grossing nom this year.

 

(I also would have Woods, Interstellar, Unbroken, and Wild over Mr. Turner and Woods/Unbroken over Foxcatcher-other then that its decent I suppose-not sure if I would have Whiplash that high either as I could see that missing out, then again it could surprise big time!)

And I'm surprised at the number of Nightcrawler predicts sneaking in all of a sudden.

If American Sniper gets in it will be too. It is poised to be a big grossing movie.
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I think Galaxy has a better chance then Most Violent year.

 

And from the looks of it-Gone Girl will be the only high grossing nom this year.

 

(I also would have Woods, Interstellar, Unbroken, and Wild over Mr. Turner and Woods/Unbroken over Foxcatcher-other then that its decent I suppose-not sure if I would have Whiplash that high either as I could see that missing out, then again it could surprise big time!)

And I'm surprised at the number of Nightcrawler predicts sneaking in all of a sudden.

 

Both Selma and An Imitation Game can clear the 100M mark, especially the latter. We could have three +100M grossers. Maybe even 4 if Unbroken or American Sniper manage to get in. Not bad. We still have to wait for post-noms bumps for Birdman or Theory.

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Even though I only first saw Dazed and Confused and the Before movies in 2013, I'm weirded out by the fact that a Linklater joint - and one that's in no way pandering to the mainstream - is a Best Picture frontrunner that's loved by the industry. I can only imagine how his longtime fans feel.

 

Also, while Boyhood is my favorite movie of 2014 I can't help but admit its recognition makes me angry at how little attention the Before films received in comparison. I realize quality by itself doesn't win you awards and your movie needs to gain enough buzz in the industry, etc. But for a guy who made Dazed, Before Sunrise, Before Sunset and Before Midnight, it still feels ridiculous that Boyhood is going to give him his first Picture & Director nominations.

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Just be happy for it man. Awards don't always go to the movies you want it to, but you just hope they'll eventually find their way to the people you want it to, that's not the way it SHOULD work, but hey ho, what am I gonna do about it? I've been in Linklater's corner since Sunset and this is beyond awesome. I feel the same way about this huge wave of love Wes is getting for grand budapest, even though it's not quite my favourite.

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How many nominations Boyhood can get?

 

Picture, Director, Both supportings, screenplay, editing and what else? maybe song but even that is a strech. Grand Budapest, Birdman and Imitation Game will probably have more nominations but that won't make much of a difference. It reminds of Hurt Locker's run. All the way up to the guilds I thought something more oscar-y or Avatar will stop it's momentum eventually, and nothing did. But we have to wait for the guilds to call it. DGA will most likely go for Boyhood, SAG is Birdman's to lose. So if the Producers decide to play hipster and give it to Grand Budapest then the race is not over. Or maybe Imitation Game takes all the guilds ala King's Speech, I commit suicide in protest and then who cares.

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Just be happy for it man. Awards don't always go to the movies you want it to, but you just hope they'll eventually find their way to the people you want it to, that's not the way it SHOULD work, but hey ho, what am I gonna do about it? I've been in Linklater's corner since Sunset and this is beyond awesome. I feel the same way about this huge wave of love Wes is getting for grand budapest, even though it's not quite my favourite.

 

Yeah I know. I don't really mean I'm angry, it's just really weird in retrospect, especially considering BM was just a year ago. 

 

On a positive note, one great thing to come out of this is that more people will seek the Before movies and other Linklaters, and those could always use more fans. 

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Most likely final:

American Sniper

Birdman

Boyhood

Gone Girl

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

 

Alt: Nightcrawler

 

Though I can also see these bumping in:
Into the Woods, Unbroken, Wild and Foxcatcher (Which I had on my list forever but then got rid of it).

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I remember 2 years ago I saw the nominations and there were some major surprises and stuff, then I came to this forum and there were paaaaaages of talk about The Dark Knight Rises not getting a visual effects nomination. so don't underestimate them.

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