Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[AniNate]

10 minutes ago, lilmac said:

I cannot wait for this. Bring it! How fortuitous for Avatar to be delayed so much that it potentially skips the worst of the pandemic.

 

Well, it was delayed because of the pandemic. We should've been getting it this weekend.

 

Thank god Spider-Man opened big to ensure it won't be delayed again though.

[WittyUsername]

17 minutes ago, Menor said:

Been hearing some rumblings about Jack and Rose coming to Pandora...

Why do you think Kate Winslet’s in this?

[TomCruiseTop]

6 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

Why do you think Kate Winslet’s in this?

Secret Leo cameo and it does 10 billies.

[JonahVex]

https://twitter.com/gavinfeng97/status/1473630974084739077?s=20

[TomCruiseTop]

1 hour ago, JonahVex said:

https://twitter.com/gavinfeng97/status/1473630974084739077?s=20

Strap in. 5 Billies coming.

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Strap in. 5 Billies coming.

 

BP2 over Thor 4 and Batman is more surprising than anything else on that list lol

[KP1025]

FB3 also seems strangely high on that list considering the previous film grossed less than $60 million in China. But Douban does skew more film buff than general audience (Maoyan would be a better indicator of GA hype). Lack of Jurassic World 3 on that list is another surprise since it will probably outgross every Hollywood film except Avatar 2 and Aquaman 2 next year. 

[Deuce66]

Interesting photo apparently from the EMPIRE magazine article. 

 

[TomCruiseTop]

1 hour ago, Deuce66 said:

Interesting photo apparently from the EMPIRE magazine article. 

 

The fact Jim appears to prominently in the photos shows they know what we want.

[Sheldon Cr]

On 12/22/2021 at 9:42 AM, JamesCameronScholar said:

Strap in. 5 Billies coming.

 

On 12/22/2021 at 9:42 AM, JamesCameronScholar said:

Strap in. 5 Billies coming.

Man you know its that 4b-5bww number I would love to happen compadre. If its possible this is the film that can defy all odds. 

Spiderman going ultra means 

Avatar 2 will definitely be aiming for that dec 17 2022 window my brother. Wow we've been waiting for this film almost the length Jcs 

Titan to his second film and back to back world breaker Juggernaut 2009.

12 years and change 🔥🔥

KAL-el of Bom

[Sheldon Cr]

9 hours ago, Deuce66 said:

Interesting photo apparently from the EMPIRE magazine article. 

 

I approve this photo and message 😎....Avatar 2 will rise above all the rest. 200-300m ow with legendary legs only cameron epics can unleash duece

Edited December 24, 2021 by Sheldon Cr
Just updating

[XXR vs XXR]

Current Scenarios (Assuming full release schedule and zero COVID restrictions)

 

 

Bear Scenario 

China - $500M 

Domestic - $450M

UK - $70M

South Korea - $70M

Japan - $70M

Germany - $60M

France - $55M

Mexico - $45M

Brazil - $45M

Australia - $40M

India - $30M

Italy - $30M

Spain - $30M 

Other - $800M
Total = $2295M

 

 

 

Base Scenario 

China - $750M 

Domestic - $650M

UK - $100M

South Korea - $100M

Japan - $100M

Germany - $85M

France - $75M

Mexico - $60M

Brazil - $60M

Australia - $55M

India - $45M

Italy - $45M

Spain - $45M 

Other - $1150M
Total = $3320M

 

 

 

Bull Scenario 

China - $950M 

Domestic - $800M

UK - $125M

South Korea - $120M

Japan - $150M

Germany - $115M

France - $105M

Mexico - $80M

Brazil - $80M

Australia - $75M

India - $65M

Italy - $55M

Spain - $55M 

Other - $1400M
Total = $4175M

 

 

 

Ultra-Bull Scenario 

China - $1250M 

Domestic - $1000M

UK - $175M

South Korea - $150M

Japan - $300M

Germany - $160M

France - $135M

Mexico - $100M

Brazil - $100M

Australia - $100M

India - $90M

Italy - $70M

Spain - $70M 

Other - $1700M
Total = $5400M

 

Edited December 24, 2021 by GoblinXXR

[JonahVex]

Very few people on twitter or reddit atleast have confidence this movie will do well, many seem to think Aquaman 2 will outgross it

[KP1025]

Avatar grossed 2.5x as much as Aquaman WW. Avatar 2 could drop over 50% and likely still outgross Aquaman 2. 

[cdsacken]

2 hours ago, GoblinXXR said:

Current Scenarios (Assuming full release schedule and zero COVID restrictions)

 

 

Bear Scenario 

China - $500M 

Domestic - $450M

UK - $70M

South Korea - $70M

Japan - $70M

Germany - $60M

France - $55M

Mexico - $45M

Brazil - $45M

Australia - $40M

India - $30M

Italy - $30M

Spain - $30M 

Other - $800M
Total = $2295M

 

 

 

Base Scenario 

China - $750M 

Domestic - $650M

UK - $100M

South Korea - $100M

Japan - $100M

Germany - $85M

France - $75M

Mexico - $60M

Brazil - $60M

Australia - $55M

India - $45M

Italy - $45M

Spain - $45M 

Other - $1150M
Total = $3320M

 

 

 

Bull Scenario 

China - $950M 

Domestic - $800M

UK - $125M

South Korea - $120M

Japan - $150M

Germany - $115M

France - $105M

Mexico - $80M

Brazil - $80M

Australia - $75M

India - $65M

Italy - $55M

Spain - $55M 

Other - $1400M
Total = $4175M

 

 

 

Ultra-Bull Scenario 

China - $1250M 

Domestic - $1000M

UK - $175M

South Korea - $150M

Japan - $300M

Germany - $160M

France - $135M

Mexico - $100M

Brazil - $100M

Australia - $100M

India - $90M

Italy - $70M

Spain - $70M 

Other - $1700M
Total = $5400M

 

If that grosses 5B it’s because the US dollar crashes and 300+ million live in a Dystopian state. I’d rather not advocate for the deaths of millions.

 

give me 3b absolute max. 1.5 bear, 2.25B average 

[XXR vs XXR]

22 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

If that grosses 5B it’s because the US dollar crashes and 300+ million live in a Dystopian state. I’d rather not advocate for the deaths of millions.

 

give me 3b absolute max. 1.5 bear, 2.25B average 

It doesn’t mean that at all. No more than $2.8B in 2009 meant that. 

[SnokesLegs]

1 hour ago, JonahVex said:

Very few people on twitter or reddit atleast have confidence this movie will do well, many seem to think Aquaman 2 will outgross it

Twitter and Reddit don’t have a clue. While I’m not on board with all the more outlandish box office estimates in this thread, it’ll easily outgross Aquaman 2. Even if Avatar 2 decreases in the US, it will be gigantic in China.

[cdsacken]

3 hours ago, GoblinXXR said:

It doesn’t mean that at all. No more than $2.8B in 2009 meant that. 

 

3d is dead, and novelty is dead. Characters are shallow and it’s been delayed half a dozen times. Think I’m being more than fair. Not to mention china is going nuts restrictions wise lately.

[Issac Newton]

Region Wise Breakdown:

 

Asia : $1.5B (-China)

Europe : $1.5B

America : $1.5B

Oceania : $250M

Africa &ME : $250M

China &SAR : $3.0B ($1.5B mini)

 

Total : $8.0B ($4.0B if WOM is bad)

Mini Finals : $4.5B - $5.0B

 

Updated as of 12/25

Edited December 25, 2021 by Issac Newton

[XXR vs XXR]

10 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Region Wise Breakdown:

 

Asia : $1.5B (-China)

Europe : $1.5B

America : $1.5B

Australia : $250M

Africa &ME : $250M

China &SAR : $3.0B ($1.5B mini)

 

Total : $8.0B ($4.0B if WOM is bad)

Mini Finals : $4.5B - $5.0B

 

Updated as of 12/25

 

But how do we get to $20B?