Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[XXR vs XXR]

11 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

DOM Forecast

OW: $400M+

 

Absolutely not. 

 

11 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

One of my favourite observation will be Weekend drop. (If it can drop below 5% or not).

 

Absolutely not. 

 

11 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 Biggest Single Market is TFA ($936M). This record will be broken in USA by Avatar 2 with over $1000M+, again this record will be broken in China with $1500M+ (Current Record Holder in China: TBALC ($908M)). There are also many chances in getting huge numbers in Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan &Russia, where it will catch up all-time record in respective countries. I don't know much about Europe but TFA (£126M) record in UK will be taken back by Avatar 2. 

 

It may take China but it's not taking the UK or DOM. 

[WittyUsername]

The best thing about this thread is that it’s difficult to tell how genuine some of these predictions are. 

[Issac Newton]

I agree that weekend drop below previous film Avatar is impossible at present. But, do not seem to agree OW, as I assume that multiple times delays will lead to a very frontloaded OW. So, I will disagree at this point. (Satisfying your point that it can not overtake TFA at DOM, or we are looking at the worst multiple) Also, Defeating TFA (£126M) in UK might be tough but it should pass that £100M benchmark (mini)

[Lothar]

10 hours ago, Maggie said:

Is anyone bold enough to make an UNDER 1B club?

Only an apocalypse will do that

[TomCruiseTop]

3 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

The best thing about this thread is that it’s difficult to tell how genuine some of these predictions are. 

People thought I was being insincere when I first suggested 4 billies

[XXR vs XXR]

Question of the Day

 

Can Avatar 2 open over $500M in China? Assuming a full push 3 day opening with midnights. The current record is just under $399M (Detective Chinatown 3).

 

BONUS QUESTION: Can OD presales go over $150M?

 

Thoughts? @Gavin Feng @Olive @charlie Jatinder

Edited December 31, 2021 by RiddlerXXR

[Gavin Feng]

1 hour ago, RiddlerXXR said:

Question of the Day

 

Can Avatar 2 open over $500M in China? Assuming a full push 3 day opening with midnights. The current record is just under $399M (Detective Chinatown 3).

 

BONUS QUESTION: Can OD presales go over $150M?

 

Thoughts? @Gavin Feng @Olive @charlie Jatinder

 

I think Avatar 2's opening will be under what Avengers: Endgame did. And maybe lifetime.

 

Even though I believe A2 would be a more enjoyable movie.

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

I think Avatar 2's opening will be under what Avengers: Endgame did. And maybe lifetime.

 

Even though I believe A2 would be a more enjoyable movie.

 

Really? Why do you think that? Not saying it's wrong but most people seem to think A2 will be competing for the biggest movie ever in China. 

[Olive]

1 hour ago, RiddlerXXR said:

Question of the Day

 

Can Avatar 2 open over $500M in China? Assuming a full push 3 day opening with midnights. The current record is just under $399M (Detective Chinatown 3).

 

BONUS QUESTION: Can OD presales go over $150M?

 

Thoughts? @Gavin Feng @Olive @charlie Jatinder

No movie has opened above 100M outside Spring festival.

AEG only did  that with big midnights.

[The GOAT]

9 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

I think Avatar 2's opening will be under what Avengers: Endgame did. And maybe lifetime.

 

Even though I believe A2 would be a more enjoyable movie.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Olive said:

No movie has opened above 100M outside Spring festival.

AEG only did  that with big midnights.

 

True but Avatar 2 isn't just another movie in China. AEG even accomplished it on a Wednesday. It feels like A2 would definitely go over that. 

[LPLC]

2 minutes ago, Olive said:

No movie has opened above 100M outside Spring festival.

AEG only did  that with big midnights.

$400M-$600M total run would already be a big win I guess

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, LPLC said:

$400M-$600M total run would already be a big win I guess

 

It really wouldn't. Coming in below Endgame would be a fail in my book, given how powerful Avatar was in China (and it just re-released and made $50M+ after already being released for 11 years.) 

[LPLC]

38 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

It really wouldn't. Coming in below Endgame would be a fail in my book, given how powerful Avatar was in China (and it just re-released and made $50M+ after already being released for 11 years.) 

Yes but AEG is an another level, if A2 finish below AEG it's not a fail for me.

[Olive]

59 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

It really wouldn't. Coming in below Endgame would be a fail in my book, given how powerful Avatar was in China (and it just re-released and made $50M+ after already being released for 11 years.) 

Chinese audience are addicted to patriotic local movies now. They seems to not like Hollywood movie@s， only F9 and GVK made over 100M last year.

[XXR vs XXR]

13 minutes ago, Olive said:

Chinese audience are addicted to patriotic local movies now. They seems to not like Hollywood movie@s， only F9 and GVK made over 100M last year.

 

How many HW movies would normally do that? Keeping in mind they kept out 5 Marvel films of which at least 4 would have done over $100M. 

Edited January 1, 2022 by RiddlerXXR

[Olive]

1 minute ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

How many HW movies would normally do that? Keeping in mind they kept out 5 Marvel films of which at least 4 would have done over $100M. 

Both 2018 and 2019 had 10.

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Olive said:

Both 2018 and 2019 had 10.

 

So what should have been 6 vs 10, and 2021 wasn't as stacked as 2019 or 2018 for films in general because HW studios pushed a lot of stuff to 2022. I don't see it being that much of a difference or an indication that Chinese audiences don't like HW films anymore. 

 

For my 2022 predictions, I've got 10 films over $100M in China (assuming they all get released). 

Edited January 1, 2022 by RiddlerXXR

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, RiddlerXXR said:

Question of the Day

 

Can Avatar 2 open over $500M in China? Assuming a full push 3 day opening with midnights. The current record is just under $399M (Detective Chinatown 3).

 

BONUS QUESTION: Can OD presales go over $150M?

 

Thoughts? @Gavin Feng @Olive @charlie Jatinder

3 days $500M is impossible. 

 

Avatar 2 will probably do a bit more in lifetime but

last night I rewatched Titanic, its futile to bind Cameron is expectations, he is coming for that billion $ in China. 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

3 days $500M is impossible. 

 

Avatar 2 will probably do a bit more in lifetime but

last night I rewatched Titanic, its futile to bind Cameron is expectations, he is coming for that billion $ in China. 

 

 

Nothing is impossible when JC is involved! If DC3 can do $400M, Avatar 2 can do $500M 

 

(Yes I know it's extremely unlikely but like I said elsewhere, if you're not pushing for extreme goals then it's boring).