Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

oh

got a pic?

Nope, i just follow an brazilian member which get the book and said there is Avatar and Wakanda Forever FYC 

 

He's gonna show it on tuesday i think, i'll bring when he post 

[IronJimbo]

44 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

I might take the under on that. Dune was a crazy outlier in 2021 with a reported $14.41. If you just apply a normal ATP inflation adjustment (11.25?/10.17) you get $15.87 

 

And Avatar 2 should in theory have a more 3D showings than that, we could geniunely looking at 16.5 ATP... mental

[kayumanggi]

The only movie left that could possibly outgross Top Gun: Maverick. We'll see.

[THUNDER BIRD]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

The only movie left that could possibly outgross Top Gun: Maverick. We'll see.

It's a given.

[Fanboy]

Once presales start it will be interesting to see the potential of this film given I'm not sure how many people will flock to it opening night or wait to see it closer to the holidays if WOM is good. What is a good recent comparison for presales? JWD maybe? 

[WittyUsername]

2 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

The only movie left that could possibly outgross Top Gun: Maverick. We'll see.

It should surely be able to pull that off globally, even without China, otherwise something will be seriously wrong. 

[stephen]

Feel like this film will be massive internationally.

 

I know the Avatar brand is consistently charged with having little cultural footprint, but this film was the first blockbuster people now in their late teens and early 20s saw at the cinema.

 

I teach uni in South Korea, and it's the one film students constantly talk about being excited for. They have fond memories of watching original in 3D on the big screen. I feel like this will be the same for young people all over the world.

 

I personally thought the film would do OK (maybe 1.3-1.5 billion WW), but confident now it's doing 2 billion +.

 

I've never even watched 1, but seeing this sequel at the cinema seems to be a major event for people I've spoken to.

 

[kayumanggi]

7 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

It should surely be able to pull that off globally, even without China, otherwise something will be seriously wrong. 

 

Ah, I meant domestically. What opening and total do you see?

[SchumacherFTW]

On 11/12/2022 at 10:47 PM, IronJimbo said:

oh god I bet it did, that's the best screen in the UK

Cough Leicester Square Odeon is better Cough give me dolby colour and brightness over imax cough

[IronJimbo]

10 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Cough Leicester Square Odeon is better Cough give me dolby colour and brightness over imax cough

the odean luxe right, where the premier of Alita: Battle Angel was? That's what i thought you meant

[FilmFincher]

What's a realistic multiplier for this?

 

I mean it's gonna be a $100M+ opener, is now a franchise property, and the state of cinema-going is very different. We just got Top Gun: Maverick which blew all expectations out of the water for this kind of thing and that was without Christmas legs as well. The Way of Water has literally no competition and basically free reign as well. I'm having a hard time judging where it falls.

 

It's gotta have at least Force Awakens legs right? You don't get more anticipated than that and I don't see Avatar opening as big which gives it room to grow. 

 

I'm stealing this table (under spoiler tag) from a reddit post I found when looking this up of $100M + openers sorted by multiplier.

Note - Some of these multipliers are inflated because it's only using Friday-Sunday gross as the opening statistic. 

 

 

Spoiler

So, here's the table:

No.	Movie	Year	Studio	Domestic Opening	Domestic Total	Budget	Weeks in theaters	Multiplier
1	Top Gun: Maverick	2022	Paramount	$126,707,459	$716,657,763	$170M	23	5.66x
2	Shrek 2	2004	DreamWorks	$108,037,878	$441,226,247	$150M	14	4.08x
3	Wonder Woman	2017	Warner Bros.	$103,251,471	$412,563,408	$150M	23	4.00x
4	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	2015	Disney	$247,966,675	$936,662,225	$259-300M	24	3.78x
5	Toy Story 3	2010	Disney	$110,307,189	$415,004,880	$200M	24	3.76x
6	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	2009	Paramount	$108,966,307	$402,111,870	$200M	16	3.69x
7	Frozen II	2019	Disney	$130,263,358	$477,373,578	$150M	17	3.66x
8	Finding Dory	2016	Disney	$135,060,273	$486,295,561	$200M	25	3.60x
9	Toy Story 4	2019	Disney	$120,908,065	$434,038,008	$200M	24	3.59x
10	The Secret Life of Pets	2016	Universal	$104,352,905	$368,384,330	$75M	25	3.53x
11	The Jungle Book	2016	Disney	$103,261,464	$364,001,123	$175M	24	3.53x
12	Spider-Man	2002	Sony	$114,844,116	$403,706,375	$139M	16	3.52x
13	Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith	2005	Fox	$108,435,841	$380,270,577	$113M	22	3.51x
14	Black Panther	2018	Disney	$202,003,951	$700,059,566	$200M	25	3.47x
15	Minions: The Rise of Gru	2022	Universal	$107,010,140	$369,056,445	$80M	18	3.45x
16	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	2016	Disney	$155,081,681	$532,177,324	$220M	20	3.43x
17	The Dark Knight	2008	Warner Bros.	$158,411,483	$533,720,947	$185M	33	3.37x
18	Incredibles 2	2018	Disney	$182,687,905	$608,581,744	$200M	26	3.33x
19	Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull	2008	Paramount	$100,137,835	$317,101,119	$185M	21	3.17x
20	Jurassic World	2015	Universal	$208,806,270	$652,306,625	$150M	24	3.12x
21	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	2006	Disney	$135,634,554	$423,315,812	$225M	22	3.12x
22	Iron Man*	2008	Paramount	$102,118,668	$318,604,126	$140M	22	3.12x
23	Spider-Man: No Way Home	2021	Sony	$260,138,569	$804,617,772	$200M	20	3.09x
24	The Avengers	2012	Disney	$207,438,708	$623,357,910	$220M	22	3.01x
25	Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	2019	Disney	$177,383,864	$515,202,542	$275M	13	2.90x
26	Minions	2015	Universal	$115,718,405	$336,045,770	$74M	23	2.90x
27	Beauty and the Beast	2015	Disney	$174,750,616	$504,014,165	$255M	17	2.88x
28	Alice in Wonderland	2010	Disney	$116,101,023	$334,191,110	$200M	17	2.88x
29	Spider-Man: Homecoming	2017	Sony	$117,027,503	$334,201,140	$175M	21	2.86x
30	The Lion King	2019	Disney	$191,770,759	$543,638,043	$250-260M	20	2.83x
31	Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire	2005	Warner Bros.	$102,685,961	$290,201,752	$150M	20	2.83x
32	Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom	2018	Universal	$148,024,610	$417,719,760	$170M	15	2.82x
33	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	2017	Disney	$220,009,584	$620,181,382	$200-317M	18	2.82x
34	The Dark Knight Rises	2012	Warner Bros.	$160,887,295	$448,139,099	$230M	21	2.79x
35	Captain Marvel	2019	Disney	$153,433,423	$426,829,839	$175M	17	2.78x
36	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1	2014	Lionsgate	$121,897,634	$337,135,885	$125-140M	17	2.77x
37	The Batman	2022	Warner Bros.	$134,008,624	$369,345,583	$185-200M	14	2.76x
38	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2	2015	Universal	$102,665,981	$281,723,902	$160M	14	2.74x
39	Deadpool	2016	Fox	$132,434,639	$363,070,709	$58M	18	2.74x
40	Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End	2007	Disney	$114,732,820	$309,420,425	$300M	19	2.70x
41	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	2013	Lionsgate	$158,074,286	$424,668,047	$130-140M	19	2.69x
42	The Hunger Games	2012	Lionsgate	$152,535,747	$408,010,692	$78M	24	2.67x
43	It	2017	Warner Bros.	$123,403,419	$328,828,874	$40M	14	2.66x
44	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	2017	Disney	$146,510,104	$389,813,101	$200M	20	2.66x
45	Shrek the Third	2007	Paramount	$121,629,270	$322,719,944	$160M	12	2.65x
46	Avengers: Infinity War	2018	Disney	$257,698,183	$678,815,482	$325-400M	20	2.63x
47	Deadpool 2	2018	Fox	$125,507,153	$324,591,735	$110M	28	2.59x
48	Jurassic World Dominion	2022	Universal	$145,075,625	$376,009,080	$185M	15	2.59x
49	Thor: Ragnarok	2017	Disney	$122,744,989	$315,058,289	$180M	19	2.57x
50	Man of Steel	2013	Warner Bros.	$116,619,362	$291,045,518	$225M	14	2.50x
51	Transformers: Age of Extinction	2014	Paramount	$100,038,390	$245,439,076	$210M	14	2.45x
52	Iron Man 2	2010	Paramount	$128,122,480	$312,433,331	$170-200M	15	2.44x
53	Suicide Squad	2016	Warner Bros.	$133,682,248	$325,100,054	$175M	14	2.43x
54	Avengers: Endgame	2019	Disney	$357,115,007	$858,373,000	$356-400M	20	2.40x
55	Avengers: Age of Ultron	2015	Disney	$191,271,109	$459,005,868	$365M	23	2.40x
56	Furious 7	2015	Universal	$147,163,560	$353,007,020	$250M	11	2.40x
57	Thor: Love and Thunder	2022	Disney	$144,165,107	$343,256,830	$250M	14	2.38x
58	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 1	2010	Warner Bros.	$125,017,372	$296,131,568	$250M	20	2.37x
59	Iron Man 3	2013	Disney	$174,144,585	$408,992,272	$200M	19	2.35x
60	X-Men: The Last Stand	2006	Fox	$102,750,665	$234,362,462	$210M	18	2.28x
61	Captain America: Civil War	2016	Disney	$179,139,142	$408,084,349	$250M	20	2.28x
62	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2	2011	Warner Bros.	$169,189,427	$381,193,157	$250M	19	2.25x
63	Spider-Man 3	2007	Sony	$151,116,516	$336,530,303	$258M	16	2.23x
64	Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness	2022	Disney	$187,420,998	$411,331,607	$200M	14	2.19x
65	The Twilight Saga: New Moon	2009	Summit	$142,839,137	$296,623,634	$50M	19	2.08x
66	The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2	2012	Lionsgate	$141,067,634	$292,324,737	$136M	16	2.07x
67	The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1	2011	Summit	$138,122,261	$281,287,133	$127M	14	2.04x
68	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	2016	Warner Bros.	$166,007,347	$330,360,194	$250M	12	1.99x

 

Edited November 14, 2022 by FilmFincher

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, FilmFincher said:

What's a realistic multiplier for this?

 

I mean it's gonna be a $100M+ opener, is now a franchise property, and the state of cinema-going is very different. We just got Top Gun: Maverick which blew all expectations out of the water for this kind of thing and that was without Christmas legs as well. The Way of Water has literally no competition and basically free reign as well. I'm having a hard time judging where it falls.

 

It's gotta have at least Force Awakens legs right? You don't get more anticipated than that and I don't see Avatar opening as big which gives it room to grow. 

 

I'm stealing this table (under spoiler tag) from a reddit post I found when looking this up of $100M + openers sorted by multiplier.

Note - Some of these multipliers are inflated because it's only using Friday-Sunday gross as the opening statistic. 

 

 

  Hide contents

So, here's the table:

No.	Movie	Year	Studio	Domestic Opening	Domestic Total	Budget	Weeks in theaters	Multiplier
1	Top Gun: Maverick	2022	Paramount	$126,707,459	$716,657,763	$170M	23	5.66x
2	Shrek 2	2004	DreamWorks	$108,037,878	$441,226,247	$150M	14	4.08x
3	Wonder Woman	2017	Warner Bros.	$103,251,471	$412,563,408	$150M	23	4.00x
4	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	2015	Disney	$247,966,675	$936,662,225	$259-300M	24	3.78x
5	Toy Story 3	2010	Disney	$110,307,189	$415,004,880	$200M	24	3.76x
6	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	2009	Paramount	$108,966,307	$402,111,870	$200M	16	3.69x
7	Frozen II	2019	Disney	$130,263,358	$477,373,578	$150M	17	3.66x
8	Finding Dory	2016	Disney	$135,060,273	$486,295,561	$200M	25	3.60x
9	Toy Story 4	2019	Disney	$120,908,065	$434,038,008	$200M	24	3.59x
10	The Secret Life of Pets	2016	Universal	$104,352,905	$368,384,330	$75M	25	3.53x
11	The Jungle Book	2016	Disney	$103,261,464	$364,001,123	$175M	24	3.53x
12	Spider-Man	2002	Sony	$114,844,116	$403,706,375	$139M	16	3.52x
13	Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith	2005	Fox	$108,435,841	$380,270,577	$113M	22	3.51x
14	Black Panther	2018	Disney	$202,003,951	$700,059,566	$200M	25	3.47x
15	Minions: The Rise of Gru	2022	Universal	$107,010,140	$369,056,445	$80M	18	3.45x
16	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	2016	Disney	$155,081,681	$532,177,324	$220M	20	3.43x
17	The Dark Knight	2008	Warner Bros.	$158,411,483	$533,720,947	$185M	33	3.37x
18	Incredibles 2	2018	Disney	$182,687,905	$608,581,744	$200M	26	3.33x
19	Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull	2008	Paramount	$100,137,835	$317,101,119	$185M	21	3.17x
20	Jurassic World	2015	Universal	$208,806,270	$652,306,625	$150M	24	3.12x
21	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	2006	Disney	$135,634,554	$423,315,812	$225M	22	3.12x
22	Iron Man*	2008	Paramount	$102,118,668	$318,604,126	$140M	22	3.12x
23	Spider-Man: No Way Home	2021	Sony	$260,138,569	$804,617,772	$200M	20	3.09x
24	The Avengers	2012	Disney	$207,438,708	$623,357,910	$220M	22	3.01x
25	Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	2019	Disney	$177,383,864	$515,202,542	$275M	13	2.90x
26	Minions	2015	Universal	$115,718,405	$336,045,770	$74M	23	2.90x
27	Beauty and the Beast	2015	Disney	$174,750,616	$504,014,165	$255M	17	2.88x
28	Alice in Wonderland	2010	Disney	$116,101,023	$334,191,110	$200M	17	2.88x
29	Spider-Man: Homecoming	2017	Sony	$117,027,503	$334,201,140	$175M	21	2.86x
30	The Lion King	2019	Disney	$191,770,759	$543,638,043	$250-260M	20	2.83x
31	Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire	2005	Warner Bros.	$102,685,961	$290,201,752	$150M	20	2.83x
32	Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom	2018	Universal	$148,024,610	$417,719,760	$170M	15	2.82x
33	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	2017	Disney	$220,009,584	$620,181,382	$200-317M	18	2.82x
34	The Dark Knight Rises	2012	Warner Bros.	$160,887,295	$448,139,099	$230M	21	2.79x
35	Captain Marvel	2019	Disney	$153,433,423	$426,829,839	$175M	17	2.78x
36	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1	2014	Lionsgate	$121,897,634	$337,135,885	$125-140M	17	2.77x
37	The Batman	2022	Warner Bros.	$134,008,624	$369,345,583	$185-200M	14	2.76x
38	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2	2015	Universal	$102,665,981	$281,723,902	$160M	14	2.74x
39	Deadpool	2016	Fox	$132,434,639	$363,070,709	$58M	18	2.74x
40	Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End	2007	Disney	$114,732,820	$309,420,425	$300M	19	2.70x
41	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	2013	Lionsgate	$158,074,286	$424,668,047	$130-140M	19	2.69x
42	The Hunger Games	2012	Lionsgate	$152,535,747	$408,010,692	$78M	24	2.67x
43	It	2017	Warner Bros.	$123,403,419	$328,828,874	$40M	14	2.66x
44	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	2017	Disney	$146,510,104	$389,813,101	$200M	20	2.66x
45	Shrek the Third	2007	Paramount	$121,629,270	$322,719,944	$160M	12	2.65x
46	Avengers: Infinity War	2018	Disney	$257,698,183	$678,815,482	$325-400M	20	2.63x
47	Deadpool 2	2018	Fox	$125,507,153	$324,591,735	$110M	28	2.59x
48	Jurassic World Dominion	2022	Universal	$145,075,625	$376,009,080	$185M	15	2.59x
49	Thor: Ragnarok	2017	Disney	$122,744,989	$315,058,289	$180M	19	2.57x
50	Man of Steel	2013	Warner Bros.	$116,619,362	$291,045,518	$225M	14	2.50x
51	Transformers: Age of Extinction	2014	Paramount	$100,038,390	$245,439,076	$210M	14	2.45x
52	Iron Man 2	2010	Paramount	$128,122,480	$312,433,331	$170-200M	15	2.44x
53	Suicide Squad	2016	Warner Bros.	$133,682,248	$325,100,054	$175M	14	2.43x
54	Avengers: Endgame	2019	Disney	$357,115,007	$858,373,000	$356-400M	20	2.40x
55	Avengers: Age of Ultron	2015	Disney	$191,271,109	$459,005,868	$365M	23	2.40x
56	Furious 7	2015	Universal	$147,163,560	$353,007,020	$250M	11	2.40x
57	Thor: Love and Thunder	2022	Disney	$144,165,107	$343,256,830	$250M	14	2.38x
58	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 1	2010	Warner Bros.	$125,017,372	$296,131,568	$250M	20	2.37x
59	Iron Man 3	2013	Disney	$174,144,585	$408,992,272	$200M	19	2.35x
60	X-Men: The Last Stand	2006	Fox	$102,750,665	$234,362,462	$210M	18	2.28x
61	Captain America: Civil War	2016	Disney	$179,139,142	$408,084,349	$250M	20	2.28x
62	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2	2011	Warner Bros.	$169,189,427	$381,193,157	$250M	19	2.25x
63	Spider-Man 3	2007	Sony	$151,116,516	$336,530,303	$258M	16	2.23x
64	Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness	2022	Disney	$187,420,998	$411,331,607	$200M	14	2.19x
65	The Twilight Saga: New Moon	2009	Summit	$142,839,137	$296,623,634	$50M	19	2.08x
66	The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2	2012	Lionsgate	$141,067,634	$292,324,737	$136M	16	2.07x
67	The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1	2011	Summit	$138,122,261	$281,287,133	$127M	14	2.04x
68	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	2016	Warner Bros.	$166,007,347	$330,360,194	$250M	12	1.99x

 

 

RIP your mentions

[XXR & Friends]

1 hour ago, FilmFincher said:

What's a realistic multiplier for this?

I would put realistic at 3.5-4.5x

[WittyUsername]

5 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Ah, I meant domestically. What opening and total do you see?

The opening should definitely be well into the $100 million range. As for the total, I have no clue. It’s a given that the legs won’t be as good as the first movie, but whether that means the movie’s total will fail to pass the first one is difficult to tell.

Edited November 14, 2022 by WittyUsername

[eridani]

Domestic opening anywhere from 100 to 250 m. Legs anywhere from x3 to x5. Very hard to predict.

Overseas is a bit easier to predict, though. Should be from x2 to x3 of the domestic. 

[Firepower]

I see people forget it's James Cameron's movie, not Marvel movie.

[ThomasNicole]

3.5x in December for a movie that have no reason to be extremelly frontloaded isn't reasonable at all to me 

 

5x seems good, whatever the opening is (i'm inclined to 150M give it or take a few millions)

[stephen]

Cameron's spoken about keeping this to a trilogy if 2 underwhelms. 

 

What should this be making minimum WW to greenlight further sequels? 1.5 billion? 

[IronJimbo]

27 minutes ago, eridani said:

Domestic opening anywhere from 100 to 250 m. Legs anywhere from x3 to x5. Very hard to predict.

Overseas is a bit easier to predict, though. Should be from x2 to x3 of the domestic. 

 

Max Opening 220m - 6x legs - $1.3b

Min Opening 150m - 8x legs - $1.125b

 

I'm expecting something like this, bigger Opening means smaller legs but more overall gross.

 

 

[hw64]

If The Last Jedi and The Rise of Skywalker, two relatively poorly-received instalments from what was once the most frontloaded franchise of them all can both manage a hair shy of 3x multipliers with significantly higher opening weekends (with Avatar 2's opening weekend average ticket price, circa-$300m and circa-$250m respectively) and significantly more competition than Avatar 2 will have, then I don't really see any reason to expect Avatar 2 to have a multiplier as low as 3.5x unless it really doesn't hit the mark.

 

I'd say 4-5.5x multiplier, 6x if it's another Avatar.