Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[NCsoft]

12 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

3B Guaranteed with a 1.2B isn't s surprise at all. Hell I was conservative at 2.8 and wrong.

By the its second weekend, when Endgame's optimism was at all time high  (insane opening and didn't collapse during its second week), I was predicting 630M China, 880M Domestic and 1.36 OS-China for a total of $2.87B worldwide. I conceded that it's passing Avatar, but nowhere during its run did I think 3B+ was possible.

There's probably some bias there but also some truth, the truth being that even with a crazy global opening weekend, it would take a better than IW multiplier to reach 3B. I think there's just too much of a rush factor for the culmination of 22 film franchise to somehow sustain better than IW legs, especially considering the domestic $357M opening, and also the China 5-day pre-holiday opening (which will cut short China legs). We've seen this "finale" phenomenon with HP8 already and that's a very well received film. 

 

19 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

You mean saying a movie deserves a sequel that made no money? Spamming that thread endlessly about a movie which ended it box office run months ago?



 

Alita sequel is a web-wide social media event, it's not just that thread, the film truly connected with a considerable amount of people and brought them joy, you should be happy about that.

Also, that has nothing to do with box office, we conceded its box office outcomes (which is far from negative, btw).

[tawasal]

@NCsoft you are really one of the most calm and sensible fan of Cameron/Avatar I have met in this thread. 

[The Futurist]

I really wonder if it s still possible to wow people again with visuals.

 

We are having so many giant CGI movies each year now, it feels we ve seen everything and people are now jaded in that department.

 

When Avatar was released you had 2 studios capable of doing Avatar Visuals : Weta & ILm and even Sony Imageworks at their best.

 

Now 10 studios can do ILM-Weta quality work if not way more.

 

The only advance Weta-ILM-Digital Domain have in CGI now is Human like CGi characters that other studios barely touched. or tried.

 

But for the rest, MPC (or plenty other) can do just as good if not better, Lion King-Jungle Book for example.

 

Aquaman was just another movie and yet its world building and spectacle were insane to me.

 

I really wonder what Cameron is gonna try with CGI this time.

Edited June 7, 2019 by The Futurist

[NCsoft]

12 minutes ago, tawasal said:

@NCsoft you are really one of the most calm and sensible fan of Cameron/Avatar I have met in this thread. 

Thanks!  Jim Fans here all have very colorful personalities and I found that really cool!

I may be the more subdued one, but my passion for Jim and Avatar is all the same! 

 

[tawasal]

5 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

Thanks!  Jim Fans here all have very colorful personalities and I found that really cool!

I may be the more subdued one, but my passion for Jim and Avatar is all the same! 

 

I really loved Avatar and didn't want Endgame to take it's WW and International crown, which seems very unlikely now, and I want the sequel to do equal numbers, but I sometimes wonder what prompts the 4B-5B predictions in here. 

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, TimmyRiggins said:

Avatar had a rerelease for the special edition, it only made 30 million more. So if Endgame does that, it's flat out cheating, Avatar didn't have anyone to beat and it's not as if they rereleased the theatrical cut.

 

So, wait, it's cheating if Endgame is the one that rereleases and makes an extra $30m??

 

Let's not pretend that Avatar rereleasing was anything other than an attempt to milk it for all it's worth one last time. So what if there wasn't another movie to beat?  How is this any different than Oscar hopefuls getting rereleased before the ceremony or Pixar and their usual Labor Day rereleases?  Jurassic World got put back into IMAX for a week late in its run.  

 

They are all money grabs.  Just because this could give Endgame another chance to pass Avatar doesn't make it any different.

Edited June 7, 2019 by Deep Wang

[cdsacken]

49 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

By the its second weekend, when Endgame's optimism was at all time high  (insane opening and didn't collapse during its second week), I was predicting 630M China, 880M Domestic and 1.36 OS-China for a total of $2.87B worldwide. I conceded that it's passing Avatar, but nowhere during its run did I think 3B+ was possible.

There's probably some bias there but also some truth, the truth being that even with a crazy global opening weekend, it would take a better than IW multiplier to reach 3B. I think there's just too much of a rush factor for the culmination of 22 film franchise to somehow sustain better than IW legs, especially considering the domestic $357M opening, and also the China 5-day pre-holiday opening (which will cut short China legs). We've seen this "finale" phenomenon with HP8 already and that's a very well received film. 

 

Alita sequel is a web-wide social media event, it's not just that thread, the film truly connected with a considerable amount of people and brought them joy, you should be happy about that.

Also, that has nothing to do with box office, we conceded its box office outcomes (which is far from negative, btw).

And you nailed it. Very few expected the collapse to never end but it never did. Props to you.

[cdsacken]

25 minutes ago, tawasal said:

I really loved Avatar and didn't want Endgame to take it's WW and International crown, which seems very unlikely now, and I want the sequel to do equal numbers, but I sometimes wonder what prompts the 4B-5B predictions in here. 

Same here. I almost want it to not do that well solely because of Jimbo and pure spirit. 

 

That said I hope Avatar 2 breaks the record and 3B record. 1B in China would be sick too however I find that extremely unlikely.

 

Super duper optimistic to me seems like 950 DOM/900 China/ 1.6B OS-China.

 

Right now I'd guess 2.4-2.7 just blindly guessing inside a 1.5-3.5 range

Edited June 7, 2019 by cdsacken

[cdsacken]

38 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

I really wonder if it s still possible to wow people again with visuals.

 

We are having so many giant CGI movies each year now, it feels we ve seen everything and people are now jaded in that department.

 

When Avatar was released you had 2 studios capable of doing Avatar Visuals : Weta & ILm and even Sony Imageworks at their best.

 

Now 10 studios can do ILM-Weta quality work if not way more.

 

The only advance Weta-ILM-Digital Domain have in CGI now is Human like CGi characters that other studios barely touched. or tried.

 

But for the rest, MPC (or plenty other) can do just as good if not better, Lion King-Jungle Book for example.

 

Aquaman was just another movie and yet its world building and spectacle were insane to me.

 

I really wonder what Cameron is gonna try with CGI this time.

Exactly. No one is impressed by 8k and they shouldn't be. It's basically no different than 4k. It's gonna be really hard to impress at the level they did before.

[tawasal]

3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Same here. I almost want it to not do that well solely because of Jimbo and pure spirit. 

 

That said I hope Avatar 2 breaks the record and 3B record. 1B in China would be sick too however I find that extremely unlikely.

 

Super duper optimistic to me seems like 850 DOM/800 China/ 1.5B OS-China.

 

Right now I'd guess 2.4-2.7 just blindly guessing inside a 1.5-3.5 range

I am also around that range, but not still convinced of 3B. 

[NCsoft]

40 minutes ago, tawasal said:

I really loved Avatar and didn't want Endgame to take it's WW and International crown, which seems very unlikely now, and I want the sequel to do equal numbers, but I sometimes wonder what prompts the 4B-5B predictions in here. 

I think these predictions are only hard to comprehend without giving Titanic and Avatar's runs a careful examination. 

 

-Predicting 4B+ for Avatar 2 would be predicting a run comparable to that of original Avatar in 2021.

-Predicting 5B+ for Avatar 2 would be predicting a run comparable to GOAT Titanic original run in 2021 (which is basically to say it'll become all time highest grossing film in every single market, save for maybe  India and Turkey).

 

- Predicting anything under 4B (like my 3.7B, for example), would be predicting a great run that falls short of Titanic and Avatar's original run, which under today's market situation (diverse tastes, rise in local films internationally, superhero domination) would be the most plausible scenario. Since Cameron is known to subvert expectations so I think predicting something other than "most plausible scenario" is not that much of a stretch either.

 

If you look back at Page 905,906 and 907, @IronJimbo  @VenomXXR and I was doing this mental exercise to extrapolate Avatar/Titanic's equivalence if they were released today and have a "comparable" run, other factors not considered. You can use the increase in average Top 10 worldwide Hollywood film gross each year from 1997 to 2018, you could use the increase in the 10th grossing film of each year over that same period, or use the global total market box office growth over 2009-2018. Pretty much all of these calculations put Avatar to an equivalent of 4B+ , and Titanic over 5B+ today. If we use the proportion increase over the former worldwide champion (Titanic 100% increase, and Avatar 50% increase), then use Avatar as the baseline box office champion, it yields a similar result. So in short, global inflation, and market expansion really does wonders.

Edited June 7, 2019 by NCsoft

[FrozenUnicorn]

Wouldn't be surprised at all if A2 does 1.5B or more in China alone, given how much A1 made there when there was only a small fraction of the theaters they have now.

[Hydrogen]

3 hours ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

You might really want to go back and take a long hard look in a dictionary. Jimbo was right you use words and really alienate them from their ordinary usage. 

 

 

There is no exaggeration in the importance of Avatar's position. It is the highest grossing movie of all time, how one can call that arrogant is beyond me. 

 

The same can be said of vindictive. I have never seen any member of the Jim Gang seek revenge over anything. What exactly would be seeking revenge over? There is no defeat to be vindictive about, no revenge over any failing of Avatar or JC. 

 

Please stop spouting nonsense, or at the very least start using words as they appear in ordinary language, not in whatever world you currently inhabit. 

 

GOLDEN BLOW OUT

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, The Futurist said:

I really wonder if it s still possible to wow people again with visuals.

 

We are having so many giant CGI movies each year now, it feels we ve seen everything and people are now jaded in that department.

 

When Avatar was released you had 2 studios capable of doing Avatar Visuals : Weta & ILm and even Sony Imageworks at their best.

 

Now 10 studios can do ILM-Weta quality work if not way more.

 

The only advance Weta-ILM-Digital Domain have in CGI now is Human like CGi characters that other studios barely touched. or tried.

 

But for the rest, MPC (or plenty other) can do just as good if not better, Lion King-Jungle Book for example.

 

Aquaman was just another movie and yet its world building and spectacle were insane to me.

 

I really wonder what Cameron is gonna try with CGI this time.

The Futurist doubting Jim's visuals of all things?

 

 

[FrozenUnicorn]

4 hours ago, cdsacken said:

End game was nowhere near the single phenomenon that Avatar was. It was a culmination but Avatar was a true 4 quad film that stood out at the time. It was one of the most beautiful things I've ever seen on film and still is today. 

 

The fact that EG came even close without being 4quad or ground breaking is incredible. Obviously I hope they re release it to finish it but that's up to Disney.

I feel like Disney would if it weren't for the fact that they own both now, so Either way the top unadjusted movie spots technically belong to them.

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, NCsoft said:

I think these predictions are only hard to comprehend without giving Titanic and Avatar's runs a careful examination. 

 

-Predicting 4B+ for Avatar 2 would be predicting a run comparable to that of original Avatar in 2021.

-Predicting 5B+ for Avatar 2 would be predicting a run comparable to GOAT Titanic original run in 2021 (which is basically to say it'll become all time highest grossing film in every single market, save for maybe  India and Turkey).

 

- Predicting anything under 4B (like my 3.7B, for example), would be predicting a great run that falls short of Titanic and Avatar's original run, which under today's market situation (diverse tastes, rise in local films internationally, superhero domination) would be the most plausible scenario. Since Cameron is known to subvert expectations so I think predicting something other than "most plausible scenario" is not that much of a stretch either.

 

If you look back at Page 905,906 and 907, @IronJimbo  @VenomXXR and I was doing this mental exercise to extrapolate Avatar/Titanic's equivalence if they were released today and have a "comparable" run, other factors not considered. You can use the increase in average Top 10 worldwide Hollywood film gross each year from 1997 to 2018, you could use the increase in the 10th grossing film of each year over that same period, or use the global total market box office growth over 2009-2018. Pretty much all of these calculations put Avatar to an equivalent of 4B+ , and Titanic over 5B+ today. If we use the proportion increase over the former worldwide champion (Titanic 100% increase, and Avatar 50% increase), then use Avatar as the baseline box office champion, it yields a similar result. So in short, global inflation, and market expansion really does wonders.

Those predictions are ludicrous and pretend Netflix and streaming and Twitter don't exist. They pretend movies don't completely die after 3-4 months as well instead of 8-9.

[cdsacken]

52 minutes ago, FrozenUnicorn said:

I feel like Disney would if it weren't for the fact that they own both now, so Either way the top unadjusted movie spots technically belong to them.

Except everyone knows they didn't make it. Disney will never get credit for Avatar nor should they.

[NCsoft]

5 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Those predictions are ludicrous and pretend Netflix and streaming and Twitter don't exist. They pretend movies don't completely die after 3-4 months as well instead of 8-9.

Netflix and streaming is not two factors, it's the same thing, Twitter doesn't really affect box office.

Did Avatar do much more after 4 months (aside from the re-release?)

Those are not predictions btw, those are extrapolation of what a Avatar/Titanic like run would be equivalent of today, you can take it as you will, nobody said its going to be easy to duplicate Avatar/Titanic's run.

 

And most importantly, did all those streaming and competition and "twitter" change the fact that Hollywood top 10 grossing films yearly on average gross 42% more in 2018 than back in 2009?

Go take a look, do the calculation yourself. 

 

[The Futurist]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

The Futurist doubting Jim's visuals of all things?

 

 

Not doubting The Canuck, you(we) will probably find Avatar visuals amazing but I think it will very hard to wow people again.

Avatar 2 having the same effect on GA as the first Avatar will be a tall order.

The CGI world has changed.

A lot.

[cdsacken]

9 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

Netflix and streaming is not two factors, it's the same thing, Twitter doesn't really affect box office.

Did Avatar do much more after 4 months (aside from the re-release?)

Those are not predictions btw, those are extrapolation of what a Avatar/Titanic like run would be equivalent of today, you can take it as you will, nobody said its going to be easy to duplicate Avatar/Titanic's run.

 

And most importantly, did all those streaming and competition and "twitter" change the fact that Hollywood top 10 grossing films yearly on average gross 42% more in 2018 than back in 2009?

Go take a look, do the calculation yourself. 

 

They are predictions without any reality in fact. Otherwise Avatar 2 should do 4-5B. When it does half that I hope you admit it.