Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[IronJimbo]

10 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Not doubting The Canuck, you(we) will probably find Avatar visuals amazing but I think it will very hard to wow people again.

Avatar 2 having the same effect on GA as the first Avatar will be a tall order.

The CGI world has changed.

A lot.

Has the modern blockbuster really even caught up to Avatar (2009)?

 

Nope.

 

this is 12 years of Jim tech we have here, they're going to shit their pants.

[NCsoft]

3 hours ago, cdsacken said:

They are predictions without any reality in fact.

Otherwise Avatar 2 should do 4-5B. When it does half that I hope you admit it.

I don't think you're understanding what I was saying at all.

 

1. If Avatar 2 has done 2.5B, that would mean that it under performed, simple. That does not mean however, that Titanic and Avatar does not extrapolate to 4B+ and 5B+ based on multiple market indexes. I don't know if Avatar 2 can follow Titanic or Avatar's footstep, but I can't admit to something regarding Avatar and Titanic just because A2 underperforms. They are different movies.

 

2. Without any reality in fact? What fact are you taking about?

The fact is, despite "exchange rate", streaming, or whatever factors you guys keep parading around, the reality is global total box office increased 40% from 2009-2018, and the top 10 Hollywood highest grosser has increased their gross by 42% in the same period. The reality is that once you cast side extreme anomalies (Avatar or Titanic), the highest grossing film worldwide each year increases drastically, which has not stopped increasing as of now. Those are the reality that we're dealing with. 

There is nothing is this $42B+ global box office market that's preventing a $4B film from happening, except that an Avatar and Titanic level film has not been released in many many years.

Edited June 7, 2019 by NCsoft

[cdsacken]

I seriously doubt that. I expect a tiny improvement at best.

 

Noticable only because it's him. Otherwise the difference would be neglible.

[cdsacken]

Just now, NCsoft said:

I don't think you're understanding what I was saying at all.

 

1. If Avatar 2 has done 2.5B, that would mean that it under performed, simple. That does not mean however, that Titanic and Avatar does not extrapolate to 4B+ and 5B+ based on multiple market indexes. I don't know if Avatar can follow Titanic or Avatar's footstep, but I can't admit to something regarding Avatar and Titanic just because A2 underperforms. They are different movies.

 

2. Without any reality in fact? What fact are you taking about?

The fact is, despite "exchange rate", streaming, or whatever factors you guys keep parading around, the reality is global total box office increased 40% from 2009-2018, and the top 10 Hollywood highest grosser has increased their gross by 42% in the same period. The reality is that once you case aside extreme anomalies (Avatar or Titanic), the highest grossing film worldwide each year increases drastically, which has not stopped increasing as of now. Those are the reality that we're dealing with. 

There is nothing is this $42B+ global box office market that's preventing a $4B film from happening, except that an Avatar and Titanic level film has not been released in many many years.

You can pretend thats true but it's not. A TON of that increase is for local films that have nothing to do with hollywood. DOM is in the toilet and China's box office market has 4 weeks that's it to make all the $$ you can. 

 

Titanic Never would have made 4B in this era not even close. Girls don't see movies 15 times anymore they have Twitter and Netflix instead much less hbogo, Amazon, Hulu, Instagram, Facebook etc.

[NCsoft]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

 You can pretend thats true but it's not. A TON of that increase is for local films that have nothing to do with hollywood. DOM is in the toilet and China's box office market has 4 weeks that's it to make all the $$ you can. 

  

Titanic Never would have made 4B in this era not even close. Girls don't see movies 15 times anymore they have Twitter and Netflix instead much less hbogo, Amazon, Hulu, Instagram, Facebook etc.

Hollywood average top 10 grossing films has increased by 42% from 2009 to 2018

 

The question is not whether "Titanic" can earn 4B in this era or not, I bet you that if Gone With The Wind is released today, Dark Phoenix would out-gross it. The question, if I haven't made it perfectly clear, is what would the equivalence of a "Titanic level" box office performance be today?

[cdsacken]

There is no equivalent. As you will see with Avatar that equivalent doesn't exist. You don't get to pretend those factors that exist today that didn't exist back then aren't relevant.

 

We aren't going to agree. Let's agree to disagree.

[Pure Spirit]

12 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

There is no equivalent. As you will see with Avatar that equivalent doesn't exist. You don't get to pretend those factors that exist today that didn't exist back then aren't relevant.

 

We aren't going to agree. Let's agree to disagree.

You are correct there is no equivalent to Avatar today. He’s talking about a hypothetical movie that towers far above others in its era. If such a movie existed today, $4B would be the Avatar equivalent and $5B is the Titanic equivalent. Maybe you’re right that movies today are so hyper-optimized and competitive that it’s impossible to stand out like that anymore, but doesn’t that doesn’t make the thought experiment invalid. If you’re right, it’ll take another generation to prove it that the days of movies like Titanic and Avatar are over. If you’re wrong, $4B or even $5B could be just around the corner, and I’d be happy to see that.

[cdsacken]

Agreed if Avatar 2 does even close to 4B (let's say 3.7 or something) I will fully admit I'm wrong.

 

I see that as damn near impossible. Admitting I'm wrong is easy. I was wrong big time on EG even if it does pass or if it fails.

[The Futurist]

ILM did all the thid act of Avatar because Weta Digital artists were starting to scar themselves.

[AlexMA]

1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

Except everyone knows they didn't make it. Disney will never get credit for Avatar nor should they.

They overpayed big time for Fox, they basically bought that credit, so you can be bloody sure they'll use it. The Disney logo will be all over this movie, with that price tag they've earned it. Hollywood is a business and while they might not gave green lit the original or the sequels, Disney are now the ones footing the bill so they will credit themselves on there, regardless of what we think is "fair".

[The Futurist]

Avatar was such a Disney movie anyway.

Remember, back in the day, Walt himself wanted to make John Carter in animation.

John Carter the written prototype of all space fantasy that led to Star Wars and Avatar ...

Cameron probably devoured the book as a kid.

Edited June 7, 2019 by The Futurist

[VENOM]

2 hours ago, The Futurist said:

Avatar was such a Disney movie anyway.

Remember, back in the day, Walt himself wanted to make John Carter in animation.

John Carter the written prototype of all space fantasy that led to Star Wars and Avatar ...

Cameron probably devoured the book as a kid.

That’s not really a good thing, to have a movie style that makes you think more of the studio than the movie itself. Is ‘Disney’ it’s own genre of films now? Lol That’s why I like other studios because they make movies that can be completely different from each other instead of this same formulaic Disney approach for all their movies.

Edited June 8, 2019 by VENOM

[cdsacken]

Whatever that formula is it's working. Whatever WB is doing this year isn't working.

[VENOM]

7 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Whatever that formula is it's working. Whatever WB is doing this year isn't working.

It’s working because they’ve bought big franchises like Star Wars(and somehow ruined that already), Marvel, Avatar and put their name behind them. Any studio who had Marvel with that set up would be doing the same numbers. Take Marvel away and suddenly they go from hot to just an OK studio.

Edited June 8, 2019 by VENOM

[cdsacken]

6 minutes ago, VENOM said:

It’s working because they’ve bought big franchises like Star Wars(and somehow ruined that already), Marvel, Avatar and put their name behind them. Any studio who had Marvel with that set up would be doing the same numbers. Take Marvel away and suddenly they go from hot to just an OK studio.

Marvel before Disney bought was ........yikes

 

They have had their ups and downs buy Disney has done pretty damn well.

[VENOM]

18 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Marvel before Disney bought was ........yikes

 

They have had their ups and downs buy Disney has done pretty damn well.

I wasn’t talking about how much money they have made, just because something makes a lot of money doesn’t mean it’s good. It always becomes about the money with any criticism of Disney. Disney’s bank account isn’t going to magically make me enjoy their formulaic movies any better.

Edited June 8, 2019 by VENOM

[AndyLL]

Are you ever going to talk about the movie itself in here or should we send it back to The Lot until there is so.e information on it? 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

Are you ever going to talk about the movie itself in here or should we send it back to The Lot until there is so.e information on it? 

 

 

Well it is 31 months away at this point, so it should probably go back there. 

[cdsacken]

57 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

Are you ever going to talk about the movie itself in here or should we send it back to The Lot until there is so.e information on it? 

 

It shouldn't even be in the main forum. It's coming out after Batman for christ sakes.

[Pure Spirit]

1 hour ago, AndyLL said:

Are you ever going to talk about the movie itself in here or should we send it back to The Lot until there is so.e information on it? 

 

The Lot: “Dedicated to all aspects of the film business not strictly related to box office”.  Seems like Avatar 2 has a pretty good claim to staying here if that’s what The Lot is for.

 

Other than the movie itself we’ve been discussing box office here since the release of Endgame, which to be real is the most salient news right now. Avatar 2 news unrelated to Endgame isn’t likely to happen until Endgame finishes its run. And before Endgame there was was plenty of Avatar 2 news (casting, production, post-production). I expect more Avatar 2 news to be announced after the box office world finishes holding its breath on whether Avatar 2 will be able to market itself as the sequel to the number 1 movie of all time. 31 months shouldn’t be the measure, Avatar 2 is in post-production. This thread is only being bumped a lot right now because we’re discussing box office. It’ll cool down to its usual slower pace soon enough.

Edited June 8, 2019 by Pure Spirit