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Shawn

Our Greatest & Spectacularly Tragic Box Office Predictions

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  • Founder / Operator

Apologies in advance for the wall of text.  :)

 

First up: this isn't a thread for attacking anyone, or trolling anyone. So, don't. And if you're going to name off your best predictions (which are you encouraged to do!), then put down your worst, too. This is an even playing field for everyone. (Also, be as honest as possible!)

 

For all the jabs this community gives--usually in good fun?--at predictions that never came to pass, the ones that do often fall by the wayside. Folks like Baumer (who foresaw Terminator Salvation's epic box office bombing, as well as the Twilight franchise explosion), BKB (who correctly predicted Avengers to break out before most other people), Kal (Avatar), and countless other veteran members have made bold calls that deserve songs in their honor. Failure seems to be a more entertaining thing to watch unfold on the Internet, but there's no reason we can't balance that out.

After following box office for half of my life, I've both seen and made a few wild calls. I've been extraordinarily blessed that this geeky hobby of studying and analyzing box office numbers turned into a profession (and at times, an obsession). Lately, I've been thinking back on my proudest and most shameful forecasts.

 

So, let this thread be a place for us to be honest with, and laugh at, ourselves, while giving credit to others.

 

Did you think Indiana Jones 4 would win 2008? Maybe you thought The Hobbit would bring back the box office glory days of The Lord of the Rings (  :ph34r: )? Perhaps you had Batman Begins pegged to make less than $100 million, or Spider-Man 3 was a shoe-in for $500 million? Was Avengers "locked" to make less than Iron Man, or would Marvel's bump send Thor: The Dark World to $300 million?

Every predictor, myself included, has made their share of calls as unmemorable as these because it comes with the territory; especially if you're someone who puts down a number and your reasons for it (let's be honest: not everyone does, which is cool, but some that don't are usually the critics).

Yes, this thread might seem like an excuse to stroke our own egos. But it's really my way of getting back to a time when chatting up box office numbers was about more than just warring fan bases and snark. Those have always been components--fun ones, at times--but they've dominated conversation even more in recent years.

 

People often ask why I make a club to hit or miss a certain number. The perception seems to be that clubs only exist to reflect the creator's feelings toward a particular movie, but I've never viewed it that way. I try to make clubs based on my analysis of what I think it's capable of earning (and bold clubs are the most fun).

 

So, have at it... Let's hear what YOU consider your personal favorite/best and most embarrassing predictions. Top 3, Top 5, Top 10, Top 20 of each... whatever you want. You don't have to be as nostalgically detailed as I will be. Just have fun with this!

I'll get the ball rolling (all predictions are domestic unless otherwise noted). I've probably skipped over a few in both categories, but off the top of my head, these are the ones that stand out from the 15 or so years I've been predicting on any kind of frequent basis. I've rounded a few off as my memory isn't perfect. :)

My 20 Most Embarrassing Predictions:
 
20) 

Star Trek Into Darkness over Iron Man 3 Club
Final Predictions: STID (~$300 million) / IM3 ($370 million)
Actuals: STID ($229 million), IM3 ($409 million)
 
Accuracy-wise, this wasn't that bad in the end, but I deduct points from myself for what used to be higher predictions for STID and lower for IM3. I abandoned this club immediately after IM3 opened and before STID opened, but still, it's humbling that two of my worst clubs happened after we started this forum. My confidence in Trek was always high after the Iron Man- and Batman Begins-like reception to the 2009 reboot. Unfortunately, the powers-that-be botched the marketing campaign. Even worse, IM3 was the first test of how much of an "Avengers effect" there would be in the MCU. None of us knew for sure, and I always banked on less of a bump than it ended up with.

 

19) 

Spider-Man (2002) under Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones

Final Predictions: $275-300 million (SM1) / ~$350 million (AOTC)
Actuals: $404 million (SM1) / $311 million (AOTC)
 
As amped up as Spidey's marketing campaign made me for that movie in 2002, I was still pretty confident that Clones could out-gross it domestically. It was Star Wars, after all, and Lucas was promising a return to the swashbuckling style of the originals--and less Jar Jar. All things considered, Clones still did very well on its own.

 

Opinions on the movies aside, it's no surprise that Spidey came out on top here as one of history's definitive summer blockbusters that gave this country the first major superhero movie following 9/11.

 

18) 

The Twilight Saga: New Moon

Final Prediction: ~$175 million
Actual: $297 million
 
I practically refused to believe this would increase substantially from Twilight's $193 million after that movie's legs didn't indicate a major reach outside the fan base. Wrong. When the midnight numbers for New Moon were announced, Baumer himself had a nice helping of well-deserved crow ready to feed.

 

17) 

Super 8
Final Prediction: $200 million+
Actual: $127 million
 
My inner Spielberg fan took over on this one. J.J. Abrams was coming off Star Trek and Mission: Impossible 3, and this looked like a real crowd-pleaser from the trailers. It turned out to be just that, with fantastic legs to show it, but in hindsight, I wouldn't have predicted so highly for this today as I did three years ago. The concept just wasn't big enough to warrant that kind of gross in 2011. Maybe thirty years ago.

 

16) 

Shrek 2
Final Prediction: ~$250 million
Actual: $441 million
 
Maybe it was because I worked at a theater around the time this came out and my disdain for crowds of children was at its peak, but I didn't think they'd recapture the magical reception of the first movie--which I also underestimated as the sequel opened ridiculously high for animated movie at the time. Few may remember this, but the weak opening Wednesday #s (resulting from a very late release date change) sent everyone into a state of panic. Fun times.

 

15) 

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Final Prediction: over $400 million (was at $500 million at one point :rolleyes:)
Actual: $303 million
 
I started out much higher on the movie years in advance--not just because I'm a fan of the franchise, but because I genuinely saw a lot of potential in this being a two-film event. Unfortunately, the X factor bit me hard: the films proved not to have the same critical/commercial appeal as The Lord of the Rings, which nixed the chance for any strong holiday legs. Some of us thought this could be a mini-Phantom Menace, once again proving why nothing should ever be compared to Star Wars.

 

14) 

Cowboys & Aliens
Final Prediction: $150 million (had a $200 million club--or something similar--at one point)
Actual: $100 million
 
Spielberg, Favreau, Ford, Craig... on paper, this sounded like a summer blockbuster that would be worth seeing twice in theaters. The final product, unfortunately, wasn't. Too many cooks in the kitchen.

 

13) 

Frozen

Final Prediction: $175 million
Actual: $401 million
 
Uh, yeah. I really didn't see this topping Tangled, a prediction that sounded very reasonable for a musical targeted toward women. But like everyone else, I'm in awe of this movie's run. In modern box office terms, this was the animated Avatar. Very happy that movies like this and Hunger Games are proving that movies aren't just for dudes (or strictly for gals, for that matter).

 

12) 

Shrek
Final Prediction: ~$125 million
Actual: $268 million
 
I was probably just biased against the idea of anyone but Pixar churning out a great CG animation at the time. Still, this was a huge surprise to most--and a good one, too.

 

11) 

Cars 2
Final Prediction: $300 million
Actual: $192 million
 
I still remember avid Pixar fans like Whoot, who had been following the film's production very closely, warning me about the direction Pixar was taking with this sequel. I chose to ignore it. This would have happened if... a lot of reasons. I always felt this made more sense than predicting Kung Fu Panda 2 over $300m (yet, I did it anyway) because of the immense popularity of Cars as a brand name following its 2006 release. Merchandise sales are still strong to this day. Sadly, the complete shift in genre and tone buried the potential here.

 

10) 

The Hunger Games

Final Prediction: under $200 million
Actual: $408 million
 
I don't feel *too* bad about this one since Harry Potter and Twilight were the only real YA breakouts beforehand, but I definitely ignored the huge fan following THG had in the months leading up to release. I chalk up my misreading of this mainly to being outside the target audience--but I ended up really enjoying the movie.

 

9) 

Prometheus

Final Prediction: $200 million (had it at $250 million at one time)
Actual: $127 million
 
At this point, I just went to great lengths to make at least one crazy prediction each summer. Bad idea. Those trailers sure were promising, though.

 

8) 

Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

Final Prediction: ~$115 million

Actual: $305 million
 
Honestly, who thought an effiminate Johnny Depp would lead a popcorn movie to $300 million domestic? Hardly anyone. I'm so glad I was wrong on this one because we got a classic summer blockbuster out of it.

 

7) 

Avatar
Final Prediction: $225 million
Actual: A lot of fucking money. ($761 million)
 
As far off base as I was here, I maintain that this prediction made a LOT of sense. King Kong with extra change for 3D and inflation sounded right to a lot of veteran predictors. Of course, 3D *being* the event aspect of the film made this a game-changer. The only reason I don't rank this "higher" is because it was literally impossible to see those kinds of results coming. Shout-out to Kal, though, who foresaw this breaking out big time--to the tune of $400-550m. ;)

 

6) 

Kung Fu Panda 2
Final Prediction: $300 million
Actual: $165 million
 
I wasn't alone in thinking this felt like (another) Shrek 2 redux when it was announced, but there were certainly a lot of vocal predictors suggesting it wouldn't go that high. Still, I don't think many expected it to disappoint and fall under $200 million. The first film set up the franchise very well, but in retrospect, it probably works best as a one-off.

 

5) 

King Kong
Final Prediction: over $400 million
Actual: $218 million
 
An Unexpected Journey was far from the first Jackson movie I overshot. Like many, I bought into the pre-release hype: fresh off LOTR and the Oscar sweep, a huge budget, strong reviews, a holiday release, and incredible visuals. I still think a 30-45 minute editing trim would have gotten the film close to $300m. Narnia breaking out further killed the crucial family appeal.

 

4) 

Pacific Rim
Final Prediction: around $200 million
Actual: $102 million
 
I went from "this will flop" to "this could be big" to "I have no idea anymore" over the period of a full year. The fact that it barely topped $100m was no surprise whatsoever, but I honestly felt like I was throwing a dart aimlessly at the board for awhile on this one.

 

3) 

Knight & Day
Final Prediction: over $150 million (I think I had a $200m club at one point)
Actual: $76 million
 
I wish I could remember what I was smoking on this one. The trailers were solid, the concept was perfect summer fodder, and the combo of Tom Cruise and Cameron Diaz felt like a big summer advantage--not as big as it would have been ten years earlier, though.

 

2) 

The Cat in the Hat
Final Prediction: over $200 million
Actual: $101 million
 
The Grinch was a massive holiday blockbuster just three years prior, and Mike Myers was at the top of his game coming off Shrek and the Austin Powers trilogy. It made a lot of sense to bet on this at the time, but families grew wise and had a no-brainer option with Elf also in release that season. I probably should have paid closer attention to the trailers, too.

 

1) 

The Lovely Bones
Final Prediction: $100 million (I briefly opened a $200 million club before the film's delays)
Actual: $44 million
 
I know... I know.


 
My 20 Best/Favorite Predictions

 

20) 

Lincoln

Final Prediction: over $130 million total
Actual: $182 million
 
Spielberg, Day-Lewis, and the most popular president in history. That's all anyone needed to know. I still ended up on the conservative end (no pun intended), but average predictions for this were way under $100 million for a long time. That was very understandable given the history of biopics and general concern that audiences wouldn't care for a politics-driven drama. I'd rank this higher if only I had been closer on the total.

 

19) 

The Heat

Final Predictions: $40 million opening weekend / $150 million total
Actuals: $39 million / $160 million
 
This comes to mind probably because it's more recent, but original R-rated comedies have been somewhat difficult to predict in the past because so much is hidden in the marketing (one reason why red band trailer aren't a good gauge for opening weekend). My confidence was pretty high from the day it went into production. Made easier here was the fact that Bullock and McCarthy were/are hot at the box office right now.

 

18) 

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Final Predictions: $84 million opening weekend / ~$230 million total / $1 billion worldwide
Actuals: $90 million / $241 million / $1.05 billion worldwide
 
These don't seem like incredibly bold calls in hindsight, but they were lower than the vast majority. I think $300m was still being widely discussed before release mainly due to a 3D bump, back when that contributed more to films' grosses post-Avatar). As much as I love the franchise overall, it was pretty clear that a fourth film was going to break away from the Three Act Theory--which essentially suggests that a three-act franchise story will usually be the most lucrative (more on that later). Once you go past that, fatigue sets in. We've now seen it happen to several other franchises since.

 

17) 

The Hangover

Final Prediction: ~$42 million opening weekend
Actual: $45 million
 
Baumer and I were among a very small minority of people who saw this (sorta) coming from miles away. The trailers KILLED with audiences for months in advance, and the timing of release with wedding season just seemed like a perfect fit for both men and women. This seemed like the sequel to Wedding Crashers no one expected. Making this movie's run even more impressive was the fact that it had to share market space with The Proposal two weeks later. I wish I could say that I predicted it would make anywhere near $277 million, but I'll settle for nailing the opening and general feeling that it would break out in a big way.

 

16) 

District 9

Final Predictions: $33 million opening weekend / over $100 million total
Actual: $37 million / $116 million
 
Wicked trailers dominated my optimism for this movie's potential as late summer adult-fare. Despite King Kong/Lovely Bones, Jackson's name certainly helped in the marketing. Blomkamp's direction, the impressively low-budget visuals, and an intriguing high concept did the rest.

 

15) 

Fast Five

Final Predictions: $85.5 million opening weekend / $200 million total
Actuals: $86 million / $210 million
 
The franchise was reborn two years earlier, and bringing in Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson to face off with Diesel in the *true* summer opener of 2011 (sorry, Thor) was an excitingly bold move by Universal and co.

 

14) 

Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Final Predictions: $101 million opening weekend / $260 million total
Actuals: $95 million / ~$256 million
 
There's not much new to say on this one that I didn't earlier in the year. Strong trailers, strong buzz, an unofficial start to summer, and an Avengers bump. Kinda bummed that I called for over $100m with my final since my original predictions were always at $95m. Oh, well. Moving on.

 

13) 

X-Men Origins: Wolverine X-Men: First Class The Wolverine

Final Predictions: Origins ($190m) > First Class (~$145 million) > The Wolverine (~$145 million)
Actuals: Origins ($180 million) > First Class ($146 million) > The Wolverine ($133 million)
 
After X3, it became clear this franchise was sinking fast. Many attribute Origins' sub-$100m opening (which it was expected to break) to the leaked/pirated version that came online days before release, but I think it was simply an early victim of franchise fatigue. Word of mouth didn't help after that. With First Class, I wasn't sure what to expect in terms of quality (and even felt crossing $100m could be a challenge before trailers). Marketing was so-so, but I figured the no-star cast and lingering memories of Origins would make it the lowest earner of the series. By the time The Wolverine came around, Jackman's presence wasn't ever going to help it recover as far as I was concerned. I grew a bit more optimistic with the latter two's reviews, but still generally felt they would be mid-range performers at best and mark a trend of declining grosses with each installment.

 

12) 

The LEGO Movie

Final Predictions: $70 million opening weekend / over $210 million total
Actuals: $69 million / $256 million
 
Legs turned out even stronger, but my $70m OW club was close enough to be happy with. The brand appeal of this just made too much sense for it not to be big across a variety of ages. I grew *slightly* less certain after Frozen dominated the market, worried that expectations would be unrealistic for the next animated movie after it, but glad I kept confidence in LEGO for the most part.

 

11) 

Man of Steel

Final Prediction: $115 million opening weekend
Actual: $117 million
 
Dat Zimmer theme. Dat Nolan(ish) effect. Expectations grew for this as release got closer, but it felt like a $100m+ opener for a long time. Not counting Wal-mart, of course.

 

10) 

Skyfall

Final Predictions: $90m opening weekend / $230 million total
Actuals: $88 million / $304 million
 
Very few movies achieve a perfect storm of buzz and marketing like Skyfall did in the months leading up to release. Many thought Quantum of Solace's reception would hold this back, but a few of us felt the 50th anniversary and Adele's powerhouse success leading up to, and including, the title song would help it transcend modern installments of the series. Word of mouth took it even further than any of us could imagine. I wish I had had the wherewithal to go with my gut for an even higher total gross, though.

 

9) 

Iron Man

Final Predictions: $100 million opening weekend / $300 million total
Actuals: $99 million / $318 million
 
Robert Downey, Jr.'s comeback, fantastic trailers, a popular Super Bowl ad, a fresh take on the superhero genre, and Spider-Man 3's proverbial handing off of the torch just made this feel like a breakout-in-waiting since the day the first Comic-Con poster hit the web in 2006.

 

8) 

The Dark Knight Rises

Final Predictions: $175 million / $475 million (increased from $450 million earlier in 2012)
Actuals: $161 million / $448 million
 
I'll admit, this is a technicality on some level because of the tragedy in Aurora. Under normal circumstances, I feel like the final results would have been closer to $180m OW/$500m DOM. Either way though, like many others, it felt like a drop was inevitable regardless of how good the finale turned out to be (due to Ledger's effect on TDK). Still, Nolan was coming off TDK *and* Inception. I didn't see any reason to bet against him or the somewhat convincing "Will Batman really die?" marketing for Rises.

 

7) 

The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Final Prediction: $300 million total (FOTR) / #2 worldwide, over $1 billion, behind Titanic (ROTK)
Actual: $313 million / #2 worldwide, $1.2 billion
 
This goes back to a time before I was even posting on Mojo's boards. After Phantom Menace's reception, we were due for another huge fantasy franchise for a new generation. I had never read a single work by Tolkien, I was slightly less sure of Harry Potter's imminent success (but not by much), and the original trilogy teaser released in December 2000 told us everything we needed to know. By the time Return of the King came two years later, it was clear something special was about to happen with a stellar end to a phenomenal three-movie global run.

 

6) 

Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

Final Predictions: $50 million opening day / $115 million opening weekend / $400 million total
Actuals: $50 million opening day / $108 million opening weekend / $380 million total
 
This and The Return of the King heralded the modern blockbuster finale. There was some debate about how big ROTS could be after Phantom Menace and Clones alienated some viewers, but the general consensus was that it would, at least, see a small bump--owing to the long-awaited origin of Darth Vader. Legs weren't quite as strong as I thought.

 

5) 

Star Trek

Final Predictions: $70 million opening weekend / $250 million total
Actuals: $75 million / $258 million
 
I sweated this one in the face of fierce disagreement from most of the box office community (Star Trek was left for dead as a franchise before this), but stuck with my gut. The final trailer is still one of the most effective I've ever seen. From the get-go, I was confident in what Abrams could do after he revived Mission: Impossible and Paramount moved the release back from December 2008 (where it could have easily done well) to a more confident Summer 2009 date. My base comparison for this was the original 1979 movie's adjusted gross ($246 million in 2009, or about $261 million today). The reboot ended up doing even better. Exciting to watch for a franchise that was long overdue in the wake of the previous two movies and TV series (Enterprise).

 

4) 

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest / Spider-Man 3 / The Avengers Opening Weekend Records

Final Predictions: $138 million (DMC) / $150 million (SM3) / $190 million (Avengers)
Actuals: $136 million (DMC) / $151 million (SM3) / $207 million (Avengers)
 
In addition to a movie or two covered in my top three, I take some pride in these because... well, probably because the bad taste of calling for possible records from Iron Man 2 and Toy Story 3 still linger on occasion. Watching the momentum of Pirates and SM3 leading up to their respective releases was some of the most fun I've ever had leading up to big openers that everyone knew would be huge on some level--it was just a question of how big they'd actually hit it. I can't say I always predicted Avengers to do what it did (I thought it would top Iron Man domestically, but not a lot more until the final days before release), and it took some time for me to come around on it.

 

3) 

The Dark Knight

Final Predictions: $160 million opening weekend / $475 million total
Actuals: $158 million / $533 million
 
It's strange to remember there was a time when people didn't think TDK would be a box office phenom, but there was. Even after Heath Ledger tragically passed, most high-end predictions weren't far north of $400-425m. Even the opening weekend record was hotly debated until the day of release. I still low-balled the domestic total (fearing it would be more front-loaded than normal thanks to Ledger's effect on the opening), but nailing the debut and having one of the few totals over $450m was enough for me.

 

2) 

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Final Predictions: Opening Day Record / $152 million opening weekend / $360 million domestic / $1.2 billion worldwide
Actuals: OD Record ($91 million) / $169 million OW / $381 million DOM / $1.34 billion WW
 
I spent some time analyzing the franchise before making these predictions--going so far as to hold a Harry Potter Week on my blog. It's also the movie that helped solidify my Three Act Theory and apply it to box office forecasting. The latter two predictions (especially domestic) were mostly fringe predictions after every Potter struggled or failed to reach $300m domestic in the 10 years prior. As both a Potter fan and a box office enthusiast, it's hard not to have a little pride in this one. Weekends like that of July 15, 2011 are why I got into box office analysis to begin with.

 

1) 

Inception

Final Predictions: $70 million opening weekend / $300 million total / over $750 million worldwide
Actuals: $63 million / $293 million / $826 million
 
One of these days (probably with Interstellar), my luck on predicting Nolan movies is going to run out. This was much harder to forecast than most big blockbusters as an original sci-fi movie with no built-in audience (outside of Nolan fans), a weak economy at the time, and a potentially esoteric concept that very few (justifiably) thought would crossover into a mainstream audience--let alone a big one. I'm still jealous of Alfred's $300m club on the Mojo boards as he made it just before I had the chance to.

 

Understandably, a small minority saw this breaking out in a big way from the day the first teaser released... maybe even when it was announced with Leo in the leading role. It just reeked of "something special is coming", and the buzz leading up to (and after) release was immensely fun to follow. While the preferential order of these best/worst lists could shake up at any given time, this is the one prediction I can confidently say is my proudest--and may always be.

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  • Founder / Operator

IMO, tragic isn't the best word? If you agree it should be changed.

 

Was just attempting to be clever (and taking on the more liberal British usage of the word). I'm open to suggestions. ;)

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The Worst: 

    [*]Kung Fu Panda 2 approaching $300m. I was really feeling it for this one, but I'm guessing that the dramatic tone may have hurt it, as well as the lackluster marketing, and competition from.... [*]The Hangover: Part II at $175m. I was pretty off with this one, and I really should have switched these two. Shame, though, as Kung Fu Panda 2 is just a damn great film. TH2 was an embarassment. [*]Tangled around $110m. I was certain that the marketing, trying to be "KEWL!" would backfire, but damn, it turns out it worked. I had no doubt about quality, but I wasn't sure if this was the best way to bring Disney back. [*]The Muppets around $200m. To be fair, the movie was great, and they did a great job of marketing it. It just boiled down to us overestimating how much general audiences wanted this movie. [*]$375m for the Avengers. To be fair, almost no one saw its insane run coming. See also Frozen and Avatar. [*]$150m+ for War Horse. Lots of Buena Vista films on here, heh. Anyways, I assumed that since oscar bait was weak at the box office this year, this would be the big return to glory. Turns out I was a year too early. [*]$200m for Super 8. Like with The Muppets, I may have been predicting with my heart, but there's also reason to blame Paramount's confused marketing.

Best

    [*]$275m for Star Trek 09. Since around March/April of that year, I began to see comparisons to Iron Man from the prior year, and I began to have great hope for this. I was right. [*]$180m for Tron: Legacy. I didn't think it would be a total flop, but I still saw some potential in it. [*]$40m for Sucker Punch. This just seemed like a mess, and I had low expectations. [*]Under $90m for The A-Team. I was pretty alone on this, interestingly enough. I just didn't see the potential.

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After Earth was easily my most biggest embarssement in terms of prediction. I predicted that it would open with around 40m (this was on another site BTW).

 

My biggest winner was predicting around 225m domestic for DOFP.

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I was staunchly confident back in 09 that 2012 was going to flop due to how much of a big deal Modern Warfare 2 was becoming. Looking back, if GTA IV didn't hurt Iron Man in '08, why the hell should the games industry be looked at as a competitor for a movie on penning weekend.

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In my first prediction I ever made on BOM, I predicted Iron Man to do 100/315. Nailed it! I made up for this stroke of genius by predicting 250 for Prince Caspian and 410 for Indiana Jones. 

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Worst

 

Star Wars: The Clone Wars 70m OW / 190m total

Iron Man 2 160m OW / 440m total

Godzilla 288m total

Despicable Me 2 230m total

Star Trek Into Darkness 365m total

Pacific Rim 52m OW / 203m total

Cars 2 330m DOM / KFP2 290m DOM

Green Lantern 62m OW / 220m DOM

Terminator Salvation 285m DOM

Speed Racer 54m OW / 189m DOM

Avatar 312m DOM (what's funny is that I thought it'd do over $500m back in 2007-08, later thought it was crazy, turned out it wasn't crazy enough)

The Dark Knight 70m OW / 260m DOM (first prediction, changed to 120/355 a few days before the film's release)

The Adventures of Tintin 290m DOM (made just when the film was announced, but still)

 

Best

 

The Bourne Ultimatum 70m OW / 225 total

Bridesmaids 28m OW / 163m total / The Heat 39m OW / 159m total (I nail Paul Feig / Melissa McCarthy comedies, of all the fucking films)

Inception 79m OW / 275m total

Catching Fire > The Hunger Games

Deathly Hallows 2 395m DOM

The Hangover 2 over 250m DOM

Iron Man 3 400m DOM

The Wolf of Wall Street 115m DOM

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Was just attempting to be clever (and taking on the more liberal British usage of the word). I'm open to suggestions. ;)

No big deal, as I just think of tragedy when I see tragic.Maybe, misinformed, misguided, ill-informed, horrific, terrible, awful, atrocious......etc
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Ones at top of my headGoodPredicting divergent would break out before literally anyone elseRide along over 100M before nearly anyone had heard of itWill look at my computer later for more good 2014 predictionsBadTranscendence over 150M47 ronin under 20M totalAnd more I will look at later

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I remember over at Mojo I predicted 1408 to make around 75 million, it finished at 71

 

As for my tragic, let's just let the 275 and 300 predictions I thought for Green Lantern and John Carter just stay dead and buried.

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