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Maleficent: Mistress of Evil | October 18 2019 | Now on Disney+

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2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Oh, this is going to be so bad :rofl:  The 1st one was terrible.

 

And in October, it'll be lucky to make Alice 2 numbers. If their idea is to cash in on Halloween, good luck because it's probably gonna die a painful death from November onwards. Either that or Frozen II will give it a late life.

This is from one of the directors of Pirates 5, so this could be even worse than the first one.

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3 minutes ago, cookie said:

November is really weak until Frozen II though. I think it can survive.

I mean in the sense that they're gonna peg it as a Halloween movie, which will only give it a lifespan of a few weeks. Goosebumps 2, another Halloween family film sequel, didn't have great legs by any stretch, and it pretty much died from when Halloween was over onwards.

 

Maybe it can have better legs than GB2 due to the lack of November competition and Frozen II double showings, but other than that, I don't see much success coming for this.

 

@TMP Pirates 5 wasn't that bad, wayyyyyy better than Maleficent and Pirates 4 at least :huh: If anything, that gives me hope this one will at least be an improvement over the 1st one.

Edited by MCKillswitch123

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This film has no chance of doing as well as the first and Disney knows it. It will be lucky to only drop 45% from it's predecessor in North America.

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2 minutes ago, Alli said:

The goldfinch and Woman in the window are gonna make over 100M too.  Gemini Man has potential to be big....like 200M big

Forgot about those, but yeah Goldfinch should do great and ditto Woman if it's critically acclaimed; but more conservative on the latter. As for Gemini Man, nahhh I can't see it doing anywhere near that.

On topic, Maleficent 2 is gonna do like $75m dom total.

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Why compare it to Alice? Johnny depp was toxic and the first one was hated.  Mal2 has Angelina Jolie and the first one was mediocre, did not inspire vitriol. 150M is my guess

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1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

@TMP Pirates 5 wasn't that bad, wayyyyyy better than Maleficent and Pirates 4 at least :huh: If anything, that gives me hope this one will at least be an improvement over the 1st one.

I saw it on a plane and all I remember was Javier Bardem's weird-ass floating hair, and Johnny Depp phoning it in to a degree that he hadn't even reached before

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This movie will certainly collapse really bad. But the real news is that it opens up the Memorial Day 2020 slot.

 

I wonder if this is being done so that they can postpone Aladdin to 2020 and fix the Genie. I wouldn't be surprised at this point if they did that.

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Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

I mean in the sense that they're gonna peg it as a Halloween movie, which will only give it a lifespan of a few weeks. Goosebumps 2, another Halloween family film sequel, didn't have great legs by any stretch, and it pretty much died from when Halloween was over onwards.

 

Maybe it can have better legs than GB2 due to the lack of November competition and Frozen II double showings, but other than that, I don't see much success coming for this.

I don't expect good results for this, but the first Goosebumps, which didn't have "Halloween" in its title, actually had okay holds for the first two weekends of November.  It only dropped  hard once Mockingjay came out and it lost over 1,000 theaters.

 

Oct 16–18 1 $23,618,556 - 3,501 - $6,746 $23,618,556 1
Oct 23–25 2 $15,525,901 -34.3% 3,501 - $4,435 $43,738,043 2
Oct 30–Nov 1 2 $9,867,077 -36.4% 3,618 +117 $2,727 $56,761,492 3
Nov 6–8 4 $6,803,313 -31.1% 3,051 -567 $2,230 $66,279,267 4
Nov 13–15 6 $4,633,112 -31.9% 2,805 -246 $1,652 $73,470,502 5
Nov 20–22 11 $1,861,967 -59.8% 1,787 -1,018 $1,042 $76,116,279 6
Nov 27–29 16 $741,366 -60.2% 614 -1,173 $1,207 $77,700,144 7

 

This movie also isn't particularly Halloween-centric either, so being "dead after Halloween" is by far the least of its worries.

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I think Disney probably knew it wouldn't survive in May so have moved it forward. 

 

I imagine either SpongeBob 3 or Fast 9 moves back a week. 

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1 minute ago, jedijake said:

This movie will certainly collapse really bad. But the real news is that it opens up the Memorial Day 2020 slot.

 

I wonder if this is being done so that they can postpone Aladdin to 2020 and fix the Genie. I wouldn't be surprised at this point if they did that.

I think it's too late for that considering the amount of footage.

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1 minute ago, jedijake said:

I wonder if this is being done so that they can postpone Aladdin to 2020 and fix the Genie. I wouldn't be surprised at this point if they did that.

It'll just be Solo 2.0 if they do that, with a $300m budget and sub-$400m gross

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Disney clearly knows this is gonna be another Alice 2 so might as well release it in October instead of a prime summer spot. Only reason I could see this not collapsing is if people have truly missed Jolie, who hasn't really been on screen since the first movie (By the Sea wasn't a real movie).

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3 minutes ago, Alli said:

Why compare it to Alice? Johnny depp was toxic and the first one was hated.  Mal2 has Angelina Jolie and the first one was mediocre, did not inspire vitriol. 150M is my guess

Actually I can see that, mainly due to how weak October and November is aside from Frozen II which is not until Thanksgiving and Joker aims at a different audience.

 

The only concern other than the 5 year wait and quality of the first is how packed September to October is with family films as Spies In Disguise, Abominable and Addams Family open, though I think SID will go to Disney+ due to the move.

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Why comparing this to Alice 2?

 

You can think the movie is bad, i also think is bad, but numbers are numbers... the first one have a 3.5x multiplier, in all Disney Live Actions just TJB manage a slightly better multiplier than this, plus Maleficent have good ratings from public across the whole internet, GA enjoy it. And unlike Alice 2, this doesn't have Depp and all the problems he brings, so it won't face any backlash. Also, this character is well remembered by people, because of her look and Angelina... who remember Mia as Alice? Mad Hatter is more remembered than her, but we all know Depp reputation after 2015.

 

Of course it will drop from the first, i'm not trying to say this is will be successful just like the first one, but Maleficent and Alice are two very different cases, and the october date is actually pretty good considering it doesn't have much competition.

 

I think this will do something like $ 160 - 175M dom. OS will be big, +400M is possible considering Asia growth and Angelina popularity.

 

 

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Wow! So much pessimism here in just one hour after the news broke. I, for one, thought this would break it into top 5 Oct openers

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I've always been pessimistic about this movie's box office because usually when you release a sequal 6 years after the original, unless you movie was super beloved and remembered, then the sequel is screwed.

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10 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Why comparing this to Alice 2?

 

You can think the movie is bad, i also think is bad, but numbers are numbers... the first one have a 3.5x multiplier, in all Disney Live Actions just TJB manage a slightly better multiplier than this, plus Maleficent have good ratings from public across the whole internet, GA enjoy it. And unlike Alice 2, this doesn't have Depp and all the problems he brings, so it won't face any backlash. Also, this character is well remembered by people, because of her look and Angelina... who remember Mia as Alice? Mad Hatter is more remembered than her, but we all know Depp reputation after 2015.

 

Of course it will drop from the first, i'm not trying to say this is will be successful just like the first one, but Maleficent and Alice are two very different cases, and the october date is actually pretty good considering it doesn't have much competition.

 

I think this will do something like $ 160 - 175M dom. OS will be big, +400M is possible considering Asia growth and Angelina popularity.

 

 

:redcapes:

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Disney wants to ensure $4 billion domestic/$10 billion WW for 2019 and wanted something to push it over the edge.

 

That and streaming. Not sure why else they'd do this.

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