How HV sales used to turn big box office hits into massive box office GIANTS

[baumer]

I think it's pretty amazing you guys have kept this thread going.  

[superweirdo87]

The collapse of the DVD market has played a profound role in the broad Hollywood landscape. Producers have said that when the DVD market collapsed, the profit margins for movies fell 50%. Around that same time, the international market opened up to compensate. And so, now we live in a land of tentpoles and sequels.

[langer]

We finally have some Blu Ray numbers for Deadpool (34M$) which landed below GotG (45M OW - 74M current) , JW (42M OW - 89M current) and The Hobbit AUJ (36M OW - 86M current).  It's worth noting that it did better than MoS (29M OW - 65M current).   I expect Deadpool to end up around 75M$, good enough for top 10-15 all-time on Blu Ray. 

 

Deadpool should also get about 30M$ on DVD when all is said and done, enough to get over 100M$ on combined revenue.       

 

To put things in perspective, let's how rare it is nowadays to hit 50M$ on DVD.

 

Last movie to reach 50M$ on DVD : Inside Out - current 51M$ 2015 (closest since :Minions at 46M$ 2015)

Last non-animation movie to reach 50M$ on DVD : The Hunger Games : CF - current 63M$ 2013 (closest since : GotG at 47M$ 2014)

Last non-animation & non-sequel to reach 50M$ on DVD : Pitch Perfect - current 88M$ 2012 ( closest since : GotG at 47M$ 2014)

 

Movies that hit 50M$ on DVD released in 2016 : 0

Movies that hit 50M$ on DVD released in 2015 : 1

Movies that hit 50M$ on DVD released in 2014 : 3 (Frozen hit more than  200M$)

Movies that hit 50M$ on DVD released in 2013 : 6 (Despicable Me 2 hit over 100M$)

Movies that hit 50M$ on DVD released in 2012 : 9 (THG, Avengers, Brave and Twilight BD1 all hit over 100M$)

Movies that hit 50M$ on DVD released in 2011 : 9 (Harry Potter DH2, Tangled and Cars 2 all hit over 100M$)

 

In other news, Star Wars TFA (131M$) has passed JW (125M$) to become the biggest hit on combined HV since Frozen (371M$) and the biggest non-animation movie since The Dark Knight Rises (152M$).   TFA is still headed for 175-190M$ by the end of the year. 

 

 

 

[langer]

Looking back at some predictions from early 2015.

 

On ‎1‎/‎12‎/‎2015 at 1:47 PM, langer said:

Guardians of the Galaxy should become only the 5th movie to reach 100m$ in Blu Ray sales in the coming months.

Star Wars : TFA ended up being the 5th movie to cross 100M$ on blu Ray.  GOTG is currently at 76M$ and had downward revised numbers that screwed up my prediction.

 

I still can't believe the pace that Frozen is going.  Chances that it reaches 400M$ in combined revenues in 2015..will it reach it before Avatar?

While Frozen (371M$) hasn't reached 400M$ combined in 2015, it's still outpacing Avatar (393M$) with  13M$ vs 2M$ in the last 8 months.  My bet is that the first of these movies to get a sequel will get to 400M$. 

 

Anyone thinks Minions as a shot at joining DM 1& 2 in the 200M$ combined revenue club?

With 108M$ at the moment, Minions should not reach 200M$ anytime soon, although DM3 and a probable sequel will obviously boost its sales in the next years. 

 

What will be the first movie to reach 200M$ in Blu Ray revenues?  Avatar?  Frozen?  AoU?  Star Wars VII?  Any other contender?

SW:TFA (112M$) is the likely candidate with all the upcoming sequels to boost it sales.  Avatar (161M$) has only sold 1M$ in the last 8 months and Frozen (157M$) has not done much better with 3M$.  Finding Dory could also do well on Blu Ray, but I don't think it can reach 200M$. 

 

Knowing animation movies do very well on home video, what's gonna be the next animated movie to reach 200M$ combined (with Frozen being the last)?  Minions?  Big Hero 6? Inside Out?  Peanuts movie? DM3?

The best 2015 animated movies only managed 108M$ (Minions) and 106M$ (Inside Out).  The 2016 batch seems stronger with Zootopia, Finding Dory and Secret life of Pets.  My money is on Finding Dory, but Zootopia could surprise.  It's late legs reminds me of Frozen.  The last 5 animated movies to reach 200M$ combined are Frozen (371M$), Despicable Me 2 (244M$), Tangled (220M$), Despicable Me (275M$) and Toy Story 3 (247M$).   Special mention to Brave (181M$). 

 

[Giesi]

First week Bluray numbers for Zootopia were posted on TheNumbers! 1.283.952, or around 100k more disks than Inside Out, got a new daddy, so we can expect total combined sales of ~2mio copies first week. I definitely hoped for some better numbers, but maybe the DVD share is bigger than it was for IO or OnDemand numbers are extremely high with negative effects on actual sales.

[cannastop]

16 minutes ago, Giesi said:

First week Bluray numbers for Zootopia were posted on TheNumbers! 1.283.952, or around 100k more disks than Inside Out, got a new daddy, so we can expect total combined sales of ~2mio copies first week. I definitely hoped for some better numbers, but maybe the DVD share is bigger than it was for IO or OnDemand numbers are extremely high with negative effects on actual sales.

One thing to consider is that Inside Out had an digital video release on October 13th, whereas Zootopia had digital and physical release on the same day. That might mean that Zootopia had a leg up on physical sales. However, Kowhite has said in this thread that Zootopia's digital sales were remarkable.

Edited August 19, 2016 by cannastop

[dudalb]

On ‎7‎/‎24‎/‎2016 at 5:52 PM, superweirdo87 said:

The collapse of the DVD market has played a profound role in the broad Hollywood landscape. Producers have said that when the DVD market collapsed, the profit margins for movies fell 50%. Around that same time, the international market opened up to compensate. And so, now we live in a land of tentpoles and sequels.

This. The great problem for studios is that the studio take for Streaming/PPV  is much,much,less then what it made from DVD/BLu Ray rentals.

[kowhite]

7 hours ago, cannastop said:

One thing to consider is that Inside Out had an digital video release on October 13th, whereas Zootopia had digital and physical release on the same day. That might mean that Zootopia had a leg up on physical sales. However, Kowhite has said in this thread that Zootopia's digital sales were remarkable.

 

It smashed digital sales for day and date releases.  It played like...an early release.  Though one wonders...what if it was an early release?  Granted, there's not a ton of data around this type of release pattern.

[RobinHood26]

5 minutes ago, kowhite said:

 

It smashed digital sales for day and date releases.  It played like...an early release.  Though one wonders...what if it was an early release?  Granted, there's not a ton of data around this type of release pattern.

 

You wouldn't happen to know a range of how much a big budget film does on digital at this day and age would you? 

[kowhite]

1 minute ago, Jay Hollywood said:

 

You wouldn't happen to know a range of how much a big budget film does on digital at this day and age would you? 

 

It varies a lot depending on the type of film.

 

It ain't replacing physical enough though.  But it can be quite solid.  Numbers?  That's an offline convo.

[baumer]

7 hours ago, kowhite said:

 

It varies a lot depending on the type of film.

 

It ain't replacing physical enough though.  But it can be quite solid.  Numbers?  That's an offline convo.

 

So when I come to Cali, and meet up with you, @Jay Hollywood and @Tele the Jet Baller, we'll get drunk and talk all kinds of numbers?

[Darth Homer]

On 7/24/2016 at 8:52 PM, superweirdo87 said:

The collapse of the DVD market has played a profound role in the broad Hollywood landscape. Producers have said that when the DVD market collapsed, the profit margins for movies fell 50%. Around that same time, the international market opened up to compensate. And so, now we live in a land of tentpoles and sequels.

I think that's part of the reason we don't really have cult movies that only become hits on home video anymore. There were tons of movies in the 80's and 90's that flopped or disappointed theatrically but then gained a huge audience on VHS and then later DVD. But with the loss of Blockbuster style rental chains and a multitude of streaming platforms, it's difficult for any one movie to stand out these days and gain a big cult following after its initial release. Hmm, think I might make a topic about the death of the cult movie . . .

[cannastop]

The latest analysis by the-numbers for the week ended June 12th, 2016, puts the first week sales for Zootopia at $42,252,895. DVD total was $16,599,534 and Blu-Ray total was $25,653,361.

 

For comparison, the first week of packaged media sales for Inside Out on the week ended November 8th, 2016, at $36,600,021. DVD total was $12,572,730 and Blu-Ray total was $24,027,291.

 

Inside Out's digital release was 3 weeks before its physical release, whereas Zootopia's digital and packaged release was on the same date. Beating Inside Out in terms of packaged sales and being surprisingly strong on digital sales is good for Zootopia, but it remains to be seen how it will persist into the holidays at the end of the year.

[cannastop]

I predict that next week, the-numbers will state that Zootopia made at least $15m in combined packaged media sales for the week ended June 19th, 2016. I'm basing this on their own data and the publicly announced data from NPD VideoScan First Alert, which can be found on Home Media Magazine's website.

 

If I'm wrong, then I have no idea how The-Numbers comes to their figures.

Edited August 22, 2016 by cannastop

[Krissykins]

The-Numbers pull their figures out of their ass. 

[Arlborn]

6 hours ago, Krissykins said:

The-Numbers pull their figures out of their ass. 

I believe it's politely referred to as educated guesses.

[langer]

So Zootopia opened about 15% above Lego movie which opened around the same time two years ago.  In the span of those two years, Lego Movie had a 3,4X multiplier of its first week of sales, but that included major bumps in 2014 & 2015 Thanksgiving. If Zootopia can follow the same trend, it should end up between 140-150M$.  Without those bumps, Zootopia is looking at somewhere around 120-130M$, which would still put it above Inside Out and Minions. 

 

 

 

[Mojoguy]

The-Numbers pull their figures out of their ass.

They are the only place with actual numbers though.

Edited August 22, 2016 by Mojoguy

[baumer]

1	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	Warner Bros.	3
2	Batman: The Killing Joke	Warner Bros.	1
3	The Boss	Universal	2
4	Mother's Day	Universal	1
5	Zootopia	Disney	9
6	Keanu	Warner Bros.	1
7	The Divergent Series: Allegiant	Lionsgate	4
8	Miracles From Heaven	Sony	4
9	Deadpool	FOX	13
10	Criminal	Lionsgate	2

 

No figures available but this is the chart for sales from july 31 to august 6

[Mojoguy]

I like that Deadpool is doing so great.

A final F you to the doubters over at FOX.