STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS | 1131.6 M overseas | 2068.2 M worldwide

[hw64]

31 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Hobbit 1 was at $562.8m, coming off a $58m 4th weekend OS.

It ended its run with $668.4m OS, excluding China, which is a total-after-4th-weekend-to-total multiplier of 1,19.

 

Applying that to TFA: $868.7m * 1,19 = $1033m

 

Hmm, it's gonna be close either way...

 

I don't think that's especially valid. The Hobbit's 4th weekend as a percentage of its total gross up to that point is far higher than TFA's (minus China) is.

[terrestrial]

@kayumanggi

repost, for an thread update? the ww is not updated

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$812,011,043	46.8%
+ Foreign:	$921,400,000	53.2%
= Worldwide:	$1,733,411,043

Edited January 10, 2016 by terrestrial

[Elessar]

8 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

I don't think that's especially valid. The Hobbit's 4th weekend as a percentage of its total gross up to that point is far higher than TFA's (minus China) is.

 

So what conclusions do you draw from that?

[Fake]

At this point, I see:

 

Low End:

 

DOM: 920M

OS-C: 1000M

CHN: 140M

 

Total: 2.06B

 

High End: 950M

OS-C: 1040M

CHN: 170M

 

Total: 2.16B

 

Even very optimistic projections have it falling short of Titanic.

 

Most likely it will finish with 2.1B (930/1020/150).

[Fake]

Projections:

 

17/1: 850M DOM + 1040M OS (incl. 115M China)

24/1: 880M DOM + 1100M OS (incl. 140M China)

31/1: 900M DOM + 1130M OS (incl. 150M China)

 

It will cross 2B by January end for sure.

[Lordmandeep]

its doing 1 billion overseas without China.

 

 

[titanic2187]

let us compare JW and SW7(final projection estimate) to see any chance for SW7 to beat titanic

            JW      SW7      different

US      652m    950m    +300m
UK      100m     200m   +100m

Jpan    75m     100m     +25m

Germ   50m     100m     +50m

Fran    40m      90m      +50m

Italy    16m      26m      +10m

Spain   25m      35m      +10m

Aus      38m      68m      +30m

Russia  25m      26m       ==

Brazil   28m      26m       ==

Mexico  44m     ~30m      -15m

Argen    15m     7m        -8m

Vene     28m      16m      -12m

India     26m      6m       -20m

China    228m    158m    -70m

Taiwan  26m      6m       -20m

SK         43m     28m      -15m

Final     1670m               +415m

 

For the given bucket of major market, the SW7 win over JW with $415m, which means SW7 could earn $2.1b in the end, which is still off from Titanic, it's on the verge now, mostly depend on how China would perform and how US and Japan's leg.......... 

 

 

 

    

 

 

[kayumanggi]

@terrestrial Done!

[misafeco]

It's not beating Titanic WW.

[KP1025]

I think people should just be happy it's only the 3rd film ever to gross over $2 billion. Second film to do it in a single run (not factoring inflation).

[Agafin]

Even my most optimistic predictions have it about $90 million below Titanic. It'll be close but I think the boat won't sink.

 

So now that TFA is locked to cross the $2 billion milestone, is there going to be some sort of record for "fastest to $2 billion" like there is for $1 billion? Avatar took 45 days to reach $2 billion, I think TFA can beat that and Disney will probably put it in all their headlines for added publicity.

[hw64]

Needs work.

Edited January 10, 2016 by hw64

[Elessar]

26 minutes ago, misafeco said:

It's not beating Titanic WW.

 

Don't jinx it.

[hw64]

4 hours ago, Elessar said:

 

So what conclusions do you draw from that?

 

It doesn't make sense. You can't do that calculation without accounting for the percentage of total gross the 4th weekend made for both films. The Hobbit made $58m in its 4th weekend, and $105.6m thereafter, but you've calculated about $164.3m (1033-868.7) after the 4th weekend for TFA, which is more than The Hobbit did past its 4th weekend even though TFA had a smaller 4th weekend gross ($51.3m). That doesn't make any sense and can't possibly happen if they follow the same drops.

 

What you need to do, is work out the percentage of total gross up to that point that the 4th weekend made for both TFA and The Hobbit (for TFA, it's 51.3/868.7 = 0.05905, and for The Hobbit it's 58.6/562.8 = 0.1041). Then you need to work out the ratio between them (0.05905/0.1041 = 0.5672), and THEN you need to multiply that by the 0.19 or 19% that you calculated (actually 0.1876). That gives 0.5672*0.1876 = 0.1064. So it's actually a 10.64% increase TFA would see in its current $868.7m gross, which equates to $961.1m. That's the actual gross TFA will end up with if it follows The Hobbit's drops exactly from here. As a sanity check, you can see that this figure does actually make sense - due to TFA's slightly lower 4th weekend figure, it ends up making slightly less past the 4th weekend than The Hobbit with the same drops (961.1-868.7 = $92.4m, compared to The Hobbit's $105.6m).

[Elessar]

18 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

It doesn't make sense. You can't do that calculation without accounting for the percentage of total gross the 4th weekend made for both films. The Hobbit made $58m in its 4th weekend, and $105.6m thereafter, but you've calculated about $164.3m (1033-868.7) after the 4th weekend for TFA, which is more than The Hobbit did past its 4th weekend even though TFA had a smaller 4th weekend gross ($51.3m). That doesn't make any sense and can't possibly happen if they follow the same drops.

 

What you need to do, is work out the percentage of total gross up to that point that the 4th weekend made for both TFA and The Hobbit (for TFA, it's 51.3/868.7 = 0.05905, and for The Hobbit it's 58.6/562.8 = 0.1041). Then you need to work out the ratio between them (0.05905/0.1041 = 0.5672), and THEN you need to multiply that by the 0.19 or 19% that you calculated (actually 0.1876). That gives 0.5672*0.1876 = 0.1064. So it's actually a 10.64% increase TFA would see in its current $868.7m gross, which equates to $961.1m. That's the actual gross TFA will end up with if it follows The Hobbit's drops exactly from here. As a sanity check, you can see that this figure does actually make sense - due to TFA's slightly lower 4th weekend figure, it ends up making slightly less past the 4th weekend than The Hobbit with the same drops (961.1-868.7 = $92.4m, compared to The Hobbit's $105.6m).

 

I came to a similar result doing it differently:

 

105.6 + 58 = 163.6 / 58 = 2,82

868.7 - 51.3 = 817.4 + (51.3 * 2,82) = 962.1

 

Yes, you are right, if it follows Hobbit's drops from now on it would end up with around $960m.

[jornacio]

Its so sad to see expectations go from "its gonna beat avatar" to "it might surpass titanic"

[Cynosure]

Titanic wins again.

 

Edited January 10, 2016 by Cynosure

[Elessar]

4 minutes ago, Cynosure said:

Titanic wins again.

 

OMG, don't jinx it!!!

[KP1025]

I don't think beating Avatar was ever seriously considered once the OS numbers started coming in. We could see that it was definitely not coming even close to Avatar's gross in many European countries and Asia. The low exchange rates are just too big a hurdle right now unless a film truly breaks out in China to overcome it. Avatar adjusts to about $2.3 billion in today's exchange rates, so I think $2.1 billion for TFA is very impressive all things considered. 

[jornacio]

3 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

I don't think beating Avatar was ever seriously considered once the OS numbers started coming in. We could see that it was definitely not coming even close to Avatar's gross in many European countries and Asia. The low exchange rates are just too big a hurdle right now unless a film truly breaks out in China to overcome it. Avatar adjusts to about $2.3 billion in today's exchange rates, so I think $2.1 billion for TFA is very impressive all things considered. 

 

Where do u get that estimate?