hw64 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 31 minutes ago, Elessar said: Hobbit 1 was at $562.8m, coming off a $58m 4th weekend OS. It ended its run with $668.4m OS, excluding China, which is a total-after-4th-weekend-to-total multiplier of 1,19. Applying that to TFA: $868.7m * 1,19 = $1033m Hmm, it's gonna be close either way... I don't think that's especially valid. The Hobbit's 4th weekend as a percentage of its total gross up to that point is far higher than TFA's (minus China) is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 (edited) @kayumanggi repost, for an thread update? the ww is not updated Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $812,011,043 46.8% + Foreign: $921,400,000 53.2% = Worldwide: $1,733,411,043 Edited January 10, 2016 by terrestrial 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 8 minutes ago, hw64 said: I don't think that's especially valid. The Hobbit's 4th weekend as a percentage of its total gross up to that point is far higher than TFA's (minus China) is. So what conclusions do you draw from that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 At this point, I see: Low End: DOM: 920M OS-C: 1000M CHN: 140M Total: 2.06B High End: 950M OS-C: 1040M CHN: 170M Total: 2.16B Even very optimistic projections have it falling short of Titanic. Most likely it will finish with 2.1B (930/1020/150). 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Projections: 17/1: 850M DOM + 1040M OS (incl. 115M China) 24/1: 880M DOM + 1100M OS (incl. 140M China) 31/1: 900M DOM + 1130M OS (incl. 150M China) It will cross 2B by January end for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 its doing 1 billion overseas without China. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 let us compare JW and SW7(final projection estimate) to see any chance for SW7 to beat titanic JW SW7 different US 652m 950m +300m UK 100m 200m +100m Jpan 75m 100m +25m Germ 50m 100m +50m Fran 40m 90m +50m Italy 16m 26m +10m Spain 25m 35m +10m Aus 38m 68m +30m Russia 25m 26m == Brazil 28m 26m == Mexico 44m ~30m -15m Argen 15m 7m -8m Vene 28m 16m -12m India 26m 6m -20m China 228m 158m -70m Taiwan 26m 6m -20m SK 43m 28m -15m Final 1670m +415m For the given bucket of major market, the SW7 win over JW with $415m, which means SW7 could earn $2.1b in the end, which is still off from Titanic, it's on the verge now, mostly depend on how China would perform and how US and Japan's leg.......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 @terrestrial Done! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
misafeco Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 It's not beating Titanic WW. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I think people should just be happy it's only the 3rd film ever to gross over $2 billion. Second film to do it in a single run (not factoring inflation). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agafin Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Even my most optimistic predictions have it about $90 million below Titanic. It'll be close but I think the boat won't sink. So now that TFA is locked to cross the $2 billion milestone, is there going to be some sort of record for "fastest to $2 billion" like there is for $1 billion? Avatar took 45 days to reach $2 billion, I think TFA can beat that and Disney will probably put it in all their headlines for added publicity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hw64 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 (edited) Needs work. Edited January 10, 2016 by hw64 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 26 minutes ago, misafeco said: It's not beating Titanic WW. Don't jinx it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hw64 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 4 hours ago, Elessar said: So what conclusions do you draw from that? It doesn't make sense. You can't do that calculation without accounting for the percentage of total gross the 4th weekend made for both films. The Hobbit made $58m in its 4th weekend, and $105.6m thereafter, but you've calculated about $164.3m (1033-868.7) after the 4th weekend for TFA, which is more than The Hobbit did past its 4th weekend even though TFA had a smaller 4th weekend gross ($51.3m). That doesn't make any sense and can't possibly happen if they follow the same drops. What you need to do, is work out the percentage of total gross up to that point that the 4th weekend made for both TFA and The Hobbit (for TFA, it's 51.3/868.7 = 0.05905, and for The Hobbit it's 58.6/562.8 = 0.1041). Then you need to work out the ratio between them (0.05905/0.1041 = 0.5672), and THEN you need to multiply that by the 0.19 or 19% that you calculated (actually 0.1876). That gives 0.5672*0.1876 = 0.1064. So it's actually a 10.64% increase TFA would see in its current $868.7m gross, which equates to $961.1m. That's the actual gross TFA will end up with if it follows The Hobbit's drops exactly from here. As a sanity check, you can see that this figure does actually make sense - due to TFA's slightly lower 4th weekend figure, it ends up making slightly less past the 4th weekend than The Hobbit with the same drops (961.1-868.7 = $92.4m, compared to The Hobbit's $105.6m). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 18 minutes ago, hw64 said: It doesn't make sense. You can't do that calculation without accounting for the percentage of total gross the 4th weekend made for both films. The Hobbit made $58m in its 4th weekend, and $105.6m thereafter, but you've calculated about $164.3m (1033-868.7) after the 4th weekend for TFA, which is more than The Hobbit did past its 4th weekend even though TFA had a smaller 4th weekend gross ($51.3m). That doesn't make any sense and can't possibly happen if they follow the same drops. What you need to do, is work out the percentage of total gross up to that point that the 4th weekend made for both TFA and The Hobbit (for TFA, it's 51.3/868.7 = 0.05905, and for The Hobbit it's 58.6/562.8 = 0.1041). Then you need to work out the ratio between them (0.05905/0.1041 = 0.5672), and THEN you need to multiply that by the 0.19 or 19% that you calculated (actually 0.1876). That gives 0.5672*0.1876 = 0.1064. So it's actually a 10.64% increase TFA would see in its current $868.7m gross, which equates to $961.1m. That's the actual gross TFA will end up with if it follows The Hobbit's drops exactly from here. As a sanity check, you can see that this figure does actually make sense - due to TFA's slightly lower 4th weekend figure, it ends up making slightly less past the 4th weekend than The Hobbit with the same drops (961.1-868.7 = $92.4m, compared to The Hobbit's $105.6m). I came to a similar result doing it differently: 105.6 + 58 = 163.6 / 58 = 2,82 868.7 - 51.3 = 817.4 + (51.3 * 2,82) = 962.1 Yes, you are right, if it follows Hobbit's drops from now on it would end up with around $960m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jornacio Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Its so sad to see expectations go from "its gonna beat avatar" to "it might surpass titanic" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cynosure Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 (edited) Titanic wins again. Edited January 10, 2016 by Cynosure 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 4 minutes ago, Cynosure said: Titanic wins again. OMG, don't jinx it!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I don't think beating Avatar was ever seriously considered once the OS numbers started coming in. We could see that it was definitely not coming even close to Avatar's gross in many European countries and Asia. The low exchange rates are just too big a hurdle right now unless a film truly breaks out in China to overcome it. Avatar adjusts to about $2.3 billion in today's exchange rates, so I think $2.1 billion for TFA is very impressive all things considered. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jornacio Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 3 minutes ago, KP1025 said: I don't think beating Avatar was ever seriously considered once the OS numbers started coming in. We could see that it was definitely not coming even close to Avatar's gross in many European countries and Asia. The low exchange rates are just too big a hurdle right now unless a film truly breaks out in China to overcome it. Avatar adjusts to about $2.3 billion in today's exchange rates, so I think $2.1 billion for TFA is very impressive all things considered. Where do u get that estimate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...