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kayumanggi

WEEKEND ESTIMATES | 05.08.15 - 05.10.15

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A not-bad drop for Avengers all things considered.

 

A24's "Post-release" marketing strategy for Ex Machina seems to be working. Almost like a return to the old days where movies relied solely on word-of-mouth.

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oh never said flop, just that disney wanted 1.8 to 2b and it could end up with 1.4b.. hardly numbers to be pleased with. This is avengers 2, not a normal sequel extasty. The ssequel should have least made 550 m domestic and 1.3b os

1-You work at Disney too?   Wow...lots of Disney employees in this thread!

2-You made a bad prediction....don't keep bragging about how much you missed it.

 

;)

 

Hey, it had that awesome Brian Adams song.

And Alan Rickman!  

 

Also....inspired Mel Brooks to make fun of it.

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A not-bad drop for Avengers all things considered.

A24's "Post-release" marketing strategy for Ex Machina seems to be working. Almost like a return to the old days where movies relied solely on word-of-mouth.

it's reasonable and average for a blockbuster and Ex Machina will probably be playing for a little bit more and hopefully maybe end up with 25+
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I don't see why rereleases shouldn't count for Star Wars or any other movie.   

 

It's still about demand for a movie.  ...Which is what we are talking about.   If a movie has enough demand to make a release worthwhile, that's a big deal.   Titanic is in front of Avengers because of a rerelease.   People spent money on it and kept it in 2nd place.  Even if it's the same people buying tickets again...that's no different than the original run.

 

Empire Strikes Back had its own rereleases (plural) to get closer if it had that capability...and it couldn't do it.    The final grosses of those two movies absolutely reflect the difference in demand for them.    One could say it's a more accurate measure since it is grosses for both movies played out over a long period of time when "buzz" and marketing isn't as big a factor.    ESB landed where it is meant to land.

The problem would be assuming that because some movies increased that means all movies will.   Especially if you use movies that weren't massive hits as a comparison.   That's going to result in a bad prediction....as we are seeing now.

 

He spent almost all the movie trying to kill the good guys.     He kinda backed off at the end.

 

Like Darth Vader....still considered one of the all time great villains even though he became good at the end.

 

Yep.   The predictions failed....the movie is doing great.

The only way I would say Avengers 2 is underperforming is if ended up under Iron Man 3 (or within a 5-10m range of it) domestically or WW. And it should be set to end a good ways above IM3.

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Wow....read the last 20 pages and am really surprised at how many Disney employees post here.

 

....They must work there because they certainly claim to know exactly what Disney is thinking ("They are definitely disappointed") and how much Disney spent on AoU.    ;)

 

So I guess Marvel is in big trouble, eh?     Or maybe it's superhero fatigue?   Check out the struggle Marvel is having lately:

 

Thor2- 206m

CA2- 259m

GOTG-  333m

TA2 - 450m?

 

I hope they can turn it around.

 

That might be my favorite UK/Aussie phrase.   "Stuffed up".    I wish that would catch on in the states.   I should start using it.

 

I heard Pierce on the radio last trying to pretend he didn't hit a lucky shot....lol...

 

True.   This is really just a testament to the astounding run of TA.   Expecting any movie to match that is just begging for "disappointment".

 

It's one thing to completely miss your prediction for a movie because you used flawed prediction methods....but most people wouldn't keep bragging about it.    B)

 

Stay tuned for this one to be very selective.

 

AoU v TDKR  "Let's only talk about domestic!"

AoU v FF7  "Hey!  Worldwide is what really counts!"

 

No bias there.    

 

You mean the "adjusting game" has be applied equally?    I thought we all got to stop applying those adjustments when our favorite movie comes out on top?    

 

It does seem like the MCU is its own entity.    BO gurus keep using other franchises to predict it and that keeps failing to work.

 

When's the last time a MCU film was predicted accurately?    Thor 2 maybe?    And IM3 and TA were missed before that one.

 

You would think in the age of internet pirating that would be the plan.   At least try to have one weekend where everyone would have to buy a ticket to see it.

Superb post. You have completely destroyed their arguments  :)

 

The selective adjustment/comparison of movies is hilarious. They will do whatever to tailor make their argument.

 

Not that I put much faith in crtics receptions to judge a movie's quality, it is still funny to see these people claim 75% RT is horrible for TA2. But 72% for their movie is the god's gift to mankind.  :rofl:   :lol:

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The selective adjustment/comparison of movies is hilarious. They will do whatever to tailor make their argument.

 

Not that I put much faith in crtics receptions to judge a movie's quality, it is still funny to see these people claim 75% RT is horrible for TA2. But 72% for their movie is the god's gift to mankind.  :rofl:   :lol:

RT scores don't help me much.   I enjoyed Interstellar (I assume that's what you meant) more than TDK, TDKR, Inception, and the Prestige....all with higher RT scores.   If it wasn't for that wacky ending, I would have liked it more than AoU!  

 

This is a crappy weekend

I know right?   The 2nd highest 2nd weekend of all time...that happens all the time.

 

Man...we should remember this the next time there is a real lull at the box office and we are whining about nothing exciting going on.

Edited by Harpospoke
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I know right?   The 2nd highest 2nd weekend of all time...that happens all the time.

 

Man...we should remember this the next time there is a real lull at the box office and we are whining about nothing exciting going on.

Well it's not a great weekend, down on last year when nothing as big as AOU was playing.

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I don't see why rereleases shouldn't count for Star Wars or any other movie.   

 

Okay, let's wait a few years after IW2, and then re-release AoU.  It's gonna add some more money.  Then wait another 10 years.  Re-release.  It's gonna make some more.  Therefore, it's an unfair estimate.  You have to compare their original runs.

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Well it's not a great weekend, down on last year when nothing as big as AOU was playing.

 

There's not much playing now. It's really just Avengers: Age of Ultron. There's nothing else that most people want to pay to see. Furious 7 has been out for a while, and after that there's just nothing there.

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The problem would be assuming that because some movies increased that means all movies will.   Especially if you use movies that weren't massive hits as a comparison.   That's going to result in a bad prediction....as we are seeing now.

 

I never said "all" movies will.  It looked like you were saying all movies won't.  I was merely saying your basis is not true; some go up, some go down.

 

Oh, and all of those movies I listed are massive hits.

Edited by acetabulum7
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lol at people getting offended by AOU being compared with other films.

 

Comparing TDKR and AOU worldwide is just wrong primarily because AOU is in 3D and TDKR wasn't. They should not be even compared domestically for the same reason. If AOU finishes with 450 M, it will only mean one thing: fewer tickets sold than TDKR.

 

People are comparing F7 and AOU worldwide because both (though F7 wasn't in 3D in some markets) are in 3D. Yes, AOU is bigger than F7 domestically. That was expected, right? What was not expected is F7 beating AOU worldwide.

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Superb post. You have completely destroyed their arguments  :)

 

The selective adjustment/comparison of movies is hilarious. They will do whatever to tailor make their argument.

 

Not that I put much faith in crtics receptions to judge a movie's quality, it is still funny to see these people claim 75% RT is horrible for TA2. But 72% for their movie is the god's gift to mankind.  :rofl:   :lol:

 

He didn't destroy anything; just a bunch of random sarcastic lines.

 

What if AoU was a better movie?  With no stupid fight that Saturday?  Can you or anyone predict that?  No.

 

That's why it's a disappointment.  Because a lot of fans expect it to be the best movie in years, and maybe it was for some, but not for the majority.  At least, it wasn't as well-received as Avengers 1, and hence the drop in box office.

Edited by acetabulum7
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He didn't destroy anything; just a bunch of random sarcastic lines.

 

What if AoU was a better movie?  With no stupid fight that Saturday?  Can you or anyone predict that?  No.

 

That's why it's a disappointment.  Because a lot of fans expect it to be the best movie ever, and maybe it was for some, but not for the majority.  At least, it wasn't as well-received as Avengers 1, and hence the drop in box office.

 

Why would ANYONE expect AoU to be the best movie ever when its predecessor is so ridiculously average?

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He didn't destroy anything; just a bunch of random sarcastic lines.

 

What if AoU was a better movie?  With no stupid fight that Saturday?  Can you or anyone predict that?  No.

 

That's why it's a disappointment.  Because a lot of fans expect it to be the best movie in years, and maybe it was for some, but not for the majority.  At least, it wasn't as well-received as Avengers 1, and hence the drop in box office.

 

It's funny that these people are the same people using doom and gloom and 'terrible' where in fact no one is really using them to describe this film's box office or quality. They just love assuming things. That Disney employee thing is laughable. lol

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