Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals: IO 29.77, JW 29.24, TG 27.02, | IO Wins Weekend!

[Fancyarcher]

Well sure, but it's basically a no-lose situation for them. They didn't have to bankroll everything, and the heavy-lifting was done by others. It's not like they were the ones who started the whole process (in fact, there were competing bids from Universal and (I think) Sony as well.)

 

Yeah, Skydance will probably have a write-up if Genisys doesn't make a profit and loses money instead, not Paramount. 

Edited July 5, 2015 by Insidearcher

[superduperm]

JW should be at $557M by the end of Sunday, its 24th day of release.

In comparison, TDK was at $441.6M (ended at $533.3M), TA1 was at $513.4M (ended at $623.4M) and TA2 was at just under $405M (will end at around $455M).

If you were to give JW the same first 24 days/entire release ratio as TA2, it would end up at $625M. For TA1, it would end up at around $676M. For TDK, about $673M.

I'm thinking this ends at around $650M, but if it could beat Titanic with anything above $659M, that would fulfill everything.

Also, reaching $550M on day 24, JW will be the fastest film to reach that number, beating TA1's 31-day record by 7 days. The margin of 7 days is the largest JW has separated itself from TA1, as it beat the fastest to $500M record by 6 days.

Conclusion: JW is still a beast.

Edited July 5, 2015 by superduperm

[Plain Old Tele]

, but if it could beat Titanic with anything above $659M, that would fulfill everything.

You're right, the end times would be upon us.

[Ozymandias]

You're right, the end times would be upon us.

 

it needs to happen

[kitik]

JW should be at $557M by the end of Sunday, its 24th day of release.

In comparison, TDK was at $441.6M (ended at $533.3M), TA1 was at $513.4M (ended at $623.4M) and TA2 was at just under $405M (will end at around $455M).

If you were to give JW the same first 24 days/entire release ratio as TA2, it would end up at $625M. For TA1, it would end up at around $676M. For TDK, about $673M.

I'm thinking this ends at around $650M, but if it could beat Titanic with anything above $659M, that would fulfill everything.

Also, reaching $550M on day 24, JW will be the fastest film to reach that number, beating TA1's 31-day record by 7 days. The margin of 7 days is the largest JW has separated itself from TA1, as it beat the fastest to $500M record by 6 days.

Conclusion: JW is still a beast.

 

 

Yeah, but we're expecting most movies to have better than average holds next weekend, since the 4th killed today's numbers. Or if not IO, we're at least expecting JW to have a good hold next weekend, right?

 

So the higher end of that range should be hoped for and aimed for.

[GregBeuke]

Well regardless, Paramount is gonna look silly for announcing dates to the two Terminator sequels, before the film even came out. Like they say, don't count your chickens before they hatch. 

 

 

 

 

I agree, my guess is Skydance convinced them that there would be sequels. According to a guy on SZ who works with theArnoldfans site. I guess Arnold told them pre-production stuff starts on the Terminator sequels in the spring. Unless something terrible/unexpected happens and he doesn't consider it's domestic start that. Which means it would really have to underperform internationally for that to happen. So I guess if it does make 350-400 million worldwide the sequels are still possible. Considering we've had 150 million dollar Batman, Star Trek and Mission Impossible movies all gross less then 400 million worldwide over the past ten years and get sequels. Well maybe I shouldn't count out these sequels yet either. Still until I hear other wise, I'm considering the sequels dead.

Edited July 5, 2015 by gb0708

[MovieMan89]

Yikes. Magic Mike seems to have gone very, very soft. Seems he blew the wad all on OD and has no endurance.

[kitik]

Sat

JP4 8.5,IO 8.2,TG 7.8,TED2 2.8,MM2 2.5,MAX 1.9

Jul4 for you

 

 

Saturday drops

 

 

IO

Fri - 12.5

Sat - 8.2 (-34%)

 

JW

Fri - 11.8

Sat - 8.5 (-28%)

 

TG

Fri - 10.7

Sat - 7.8 (-27%)

 

MMXXL

Fri - 6.3

Sat - 2.5 (-60%)

 

Ted2

Fri - 4.4

Sat - 2.8 (-36%)

 

Max

Fri - 2.6

Sat - 1.9 (-28%)

 

 

 

That's a pretty damn impressive Saturday drop for MMXXL.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

I agree, my guess is Skydance convinced them that there would be sequels. According to a guy on SZ who works with theArnoldfans site. I guess Arnold told them pre-production stuff starts on the Terminator sequels in the spring. Unless something terrible/unexpected happens and he doesn't consider it's domestic start that. Which means it would really have to underperform internationally for that to happen. So I guess if it does make 350-400 million worldwide the sequels are still possible. Considering we've had 150 million dollar Batman, Star Trek and Mission Impossible movies all gross less then 400 million worldwide over the past ten years and get sequels. Well maybe I shouldn't count out these sequels yet either. Still until I hear other wise, I'm considering the sequels dead.

I am thinking the sequels died, Batman Begins made 357m worldwide off a 150m budget bad had really good word of mouth compared to T5. This makes three Terminator films in a row that people have not universally liked. 

[Fancyarcher]

I agree, my guess is Skydance convinced them that there would be sequels. According to a guy on SZ who works with theArnoldfans site. I guess Arnold told them pre-production stuff starts on the Terminator sequels in the spring. Unless something terrible/unexpected happens and he doesn't consider it's domestic start that. Which means it would really have to underperform internationally for that to happen. So I guess if it does make 350-400 million worldwide the sequels are still possible. Considering we've had 150 million dollar Batman, Star Trek and Mission Impossible movies all gross less then 400 million worldwide over the past ten years and get sequels. Well maybe I shouldn't count out these sequels yet either. Still until I hear other wise, I'm considering the sequels dead.

 

Seems reasonable. I'm pretty sure the sequels are dead, unless overseas gross really surprises, which I doubt it will. Also the legs will probably be poor enough, that Paramount will cancel the planned sequels.

Edited July 5, 2015 by Insidearcher

[kitik]

The first Magic Mike had an 11.3 Saturday.

And then a 5.5 second Saturday. And a 3.3 third Saturday.

 

The first Magic Mike made 3.0 on the 4th of July, which was a Wednesday in 2012. That's an ugly comparison.

[Mojoguy]

That's a pretty damn impressive Saturday drop for MMXXL.

You can say MM2 went limp on Saturday...

 

What?

[Empire]

Man, MM2 is doing pathetic business really. Thankfully it didn't cost much to make.

Edited July 5, 2015 by Empire Out

[MovieMan89]

I wonder if MM can even hit 50 now? Fuck, why did I put 127 in the BSG!?

[kitik]

and here are some Sunday guesses:

 

 

 

IO

Fri - 12.5

Sat - 8.2 (-34%)

Sun - 9.7 (+18%)

weekend - 30.4

 

JW

Fri - 11.8

Sat - 8.5 (-28%)

Sun - 10.7 (+26%)

weekend - 31.0

 

TG

Fri - 10.7

Sat - 7.8 (-27%)

Sun - 10.1 (+30%)

weekend - 28.6

 

MMXXL

Fri - 6.3

Sat - 2.5 (-60%)

Sun - 3.8 (+52%)

weekend - 12.6

 

Ted2

Fri - 4.4

Sat - 2.8 (-36%)

Sun - 3.9 (+40%)

weekend - 11.1

 

[DAJK]

Oh god I forgot about BSG. I sure hope I didn't include MMXXL. I made a pretty embarrassing prediction this week on my blog, even after Wednesday numbers I said this would do over 40 for the 5-day

[Mojoguy]

I wonder if MM can even hit 50 now? Fuck, why did I put 127 in the BSG!?

Because you thought the desperate and wet housewives would show up to see the male strippers?

[superduperm]

So, anyone else think this is going to be another weekend where Universal underestimates themselves by projecting second place for the weekend, and waits for actuals to bring them up to first?

[Mojoguy]

So, anyone else think this is going to be another weekend where Universal underestimates themselves by projecting second place for the weekend, and waits for actuals to bring them up to first?

Disney predicted second place for IO last week.

It depends on whether Disney wants IO to get the win or not.

Edited July 5, 2015 by Mojoguy

[Fake]

I'm thinking

 

Inside out:12.5+8.2+9.5 = 30.2

Jurassic World: 11.8+8.5+10.2 = 30.5

 

So, it's gonna be very very close, especially if IO's Saturday comes closer to JW's with official numbers.

 

I think the range for IO right now is 330-345m and for JW, it is 640-650m.